[Cracked Sidewalks] A year without Henry Ellenson equals a better team for Marquette

[tower912]

I doubt we would have Katin if we still had Henry.   Kind of an either/or, IMO.    What we would have is size at the 4.   I have now seen Henry up close 3 times this year in the NBDL.   He has gotten more muscular.   He takes fewer 3's, rarely forcing in the last two games.    He is still pushed around by muscular 6'8 guys.   And he has not improved at guarding 6'8 guys in space.    So, if Henry were here, MU would have a legit stretch 4.   Sam would have split time at the 3 and the 4.    I doubt KR comes.    I can think of a couple of games where is defensive rebounding would have made a difference.    I can think of others where is poor 3 pt shooting would have been a problem.    IMO, his absence has cost us 2 wins.   

[wadesworld]

The guy would have been, by a pretty dang significant margin, our best player.  Hands down.

[MerrittsMustache]

If Henry stayed, my assumption is that Wally would have stayed as well and Katin wouldn't have been an option.

Wojo's strategy and game-planning would have been very different with Henry still in the fold. HE obviously would have been the focal point of the offense and MU, for better or worse, would not have had the same balance offensively. The big question would be whether HE's offensive usage was so high last season because it needed to be or because he was "showcasing his skills." If HE bought into the team-first, move-the-ball philosophy (not hard to believe), MU would have been a bear offensively, in addition to having a bigger team and a better rebounding team (especially when it comes to the easy boards).

In terms of other players' development, Hauser and Katin averaged a combined 52.5 min/gm this season (1496 total minutes, KR missed 3 games). You figure HE would get 34ish minutes which would have left about 18ish/game for Hauser, about 8 less than he averaged without HE. Then again, it's reasonable to believe that Hauser have also taken some of Heldt's 12.8 min/gm with HE being the only big on the floor during some stretches. With HE still around, I don't think Hauser's minutes would have decreased all that dramatically but Heldt potentially would have seen his minutes cut in half.

It should also be noted that KT and Hauser average a combined 15.3 FGA/gm. HE alone averaged 13.2 in his only season at MU. HE's shots may have decreased slightly but I don't see it dropping below 12. That likely means fewer shots for Hauser as well as guards like Rowsey and Howard. HE was not nearly as efficient a scorer as those guys so it's reasonable to believe that, despite adding a dynamic offensive player, MU's offensive would have been less efficient. Then again, if HE was surrounded by shooters, it's reasonable to believe that his efficiency would have increased at a decent clip.

In conclusion, I believe that the team would have been better with HE (not going out on a big limb there). A talent like HE could have made the difference in several hard luck losses this season, especially when MU hit an offensive drought or when it came down to hauling in a critical rebound. With HE, I picture MU being similar to Butler this season - 23-7, 2nd in the BE, a top 12-20 team for a bulk of the season and eyeing a 3-seed.

[lohaus]

I would say his defense on the perimeter was bad.  I wouldn't say in the paint it was horrible.  He blocked shots.  He rebounded.  He altered shots.  Yeah, if he is guarding essentially a 6'6"-6'7" super athletic Big East wing player on the perimeter he got beat just about every time.

Good discussion if we get KR or Froling if he stays.  Does Wally stay and become another useless or limited hustle player?  What influences Cohen and Carters decision to stay or go?

Myself, I think we are a better team with a huge presence of HE.  Add to that the sniping ability of Rowsey, Howard, and Hauser.  I guess this article makes me think would we be better with a front line of Fischer, Hauser . . . .or Fisher - 5, HE - 4, Hauser -3.  I would take the latter.

[GB Warrior]

If Henry stayed, my assumption is that Wally would have stayed as well and Katin wouldn't have been an option.

Wojo's strategy and game-planning would have been very different with Henry still in the fold. HE obviously would have been the focal point of the offense and MU, for better or worse, would not have had the same balance offensively. The big question would be whether HE's offensive usage was so high last season because it needed to be or because he was "showcasing his skills." If HE bought into the team-first, move-the-ball philosophy (not hard to believe), MU would have been a bear offensively, in addition to having a bigger team and a better rebounding team (especially when it comes to the easy boards).

In terms of other players' development, Hauser and Katin averaged a combined 52.5 min/gm this season (1496 total minutes, KR missed 3 games). You figure HE would get 34ish minutes which would have left about 18ish/game for Hauser, about 8 less than he averaged without HE. Then again, it's reasonable to believe that Hauser have also taken some of Heldt's 12.8 min/gm with HE being the only big on the floor during some stretches. With HE still around, I don't think Hauser's minutes would have decreased all that dramatically but Heldt potentially would have seen his minutes cut in half.

It should also be noted that KT and Hauser average a combined 15.3 FGA/gm. HE alone averaged 13.2 in his only season at MU. HE's shots may have decreased slightly but I don't see it dropping below 12. That likely means fewer shots for Hauser as well as guards like Rowsey and Howard. HE was not nearly as efficient a scorer as those guys so it's reasonable to believe that, despite adding a dynamic offensive player, MU's offensive would have been less efficient. Then again, if HE was surrounded by shooters, it's reasonable to believe that his efficiency would have increased at a decent clip.

In conclusion, I believe that the team would have been better with HE (not going out on a big limb there). A talent like HE could have made the difference in several hard luck losses this season, especially when MU hit an offensive drought or when it came down to hauling in a critical rebound. With HE, I picture MU being similar to Butler this season - 23-7, 2nd in the BE, a top 12-20 team for a bulk of the season and eyeing a 3-seed.

This is good stuff, and I agree for the most part. Some of that dip in inefficiency would have been overridden by vastly superior rebounding. That said, most of the assumptions on what we would or would not have been are ignoring Fischer as part of the equation. HE's and Fisch's games did not complement each other, and one season of D-league ball suggests HE's 3-ball hasn't improved enough to play the stretch 4. That would have complicated this line-up, and our best lineup may have been w/ HE at the 5.

So it's a bit ebb and flow. We'd be better, but chemistry matters, so I don't know that we would have seen a full ROI with HE on this roster. I'd argue, we'd be in 5-seed land. with that team. All in all, I'm pleased with the platform this year's team has created for years to come.

[wadesworld]

What games do we probably lose with Hank on this team that we won without him?  I don't think Xavier or Creighton in the form they were at when we played them would beat MU with or without Hank (or, more likely, trading Hank for Katin).  We didn't beat Providence or Butler without him anyway.  Maybe we lose to Nova at home.  Georgia or Vandy?  I think we still win those games.  Georgetown at home, both DePaul games, St. John's at home?  Don't see those having been losses.  Seton Hall at home?  Think we win with him.

What games do we probably win with him?  Seton Hall away, Pitt on a neutral court, probably both Providence games and probably home against Butler.

There aren't many kids that are as talented as Hank is in college basketball.  We don't have anybody with his combination of size and skill on our roster.  Sure, he wasn't as efficient as we would've liked, but he also had Traci Carter, Haanif Cheatham, and JJJ as his best perimeter teammates.  This year he'd have Rowsey, Howard, and Hauser spreading the floor.  That combination would be absolutely deadly.  And sure, Hank and Fisch didn't really "work together" very well, but again, I'd argue that's more because defenses could collapse on those 2 and not pay a nearly high enough price for doing so.  Even so, we saw some great high low post feeds from Hank to Fisch and some great passes on the double from Fisch to a cutting Hank last year.

Imagine an offense where you have Hank catching the ball at the elbow/high post with Hauser in one corner, Rowsey in another, and Howard fading to the opposite FT line extended.  Good luck defending that.  Hank can take a big off the dribble and once the defense collapses the kick to a wide open Rowsey/Howard/Hauser?  Oops.  Same thing with a high pick and roll/pick and pop.

And to top it all off you have the guy who can go and get you a basket in a number of different ways in crunch time.  Really the only issue offensively with this team has been a go-to guy who you can just throw the ball to and say, "We need one basket to close this game out.  Go get it for me."  That's Hank.

[GB Warrior]

Good point, wades, and this year, that's been KR with disappointing results in those specific moments.

[burger]

Henry at the 5....
Sam at the 4.....
Katin at the 3.....
Rowsey and Howard at the guards.....

Best 3 point shooting team to be put on the floor as an NCAA team?????

[brandx]

Henry Ellenson leaving Marquette is not why Marquette is a better basketball team.

I agree completely. We would be a solid Sweet 16 team or better if Henry was still here.

[brewcity77]

Henry at the 5....
Sam at the 4.....
Katin at the 3.....
Rowsey and Howard at the guards.....

Best 3 point shooting team to be put on the floor as an NCAA team?????

Katin would absolutely not be here. No chance.

The three games we may have lost in my opinion are Creighton away, Villanova, and Xavier away. Reinhardt was immense in those games. Possibly Seton Hall at home and away as the SHU bigs did a great job last year on Henry. I think we probably win 3-4 we lost, probably lose 1-2 we won. I'd guess we're 2 games better with him, but again, only if he was willing to take a lesser role.