15 Teams for 10 Spots

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yesterday, I made a post called 17 teams for 12 spots. With Northwestern beating Michigan with a full court Hail Mary, they have now eliminated any chance that they play themselves off the bubble. As a reminder, red games are ones that don't help much if you win but hurt a lot if you lose. Green games are ones that raise your profile if you win but don't hurt much if you lose.

Arkansas:UGA
Xavier: @DPL
USC: WASH
Seton Hall: @BUT
Providence: @SJU
Middle Tennessee State: FIU, FAU
Syracuse: GT
California: @UTAH, @COLO
Illinois State: N/A
Rhode Island: DAV
Current Cut Off
Vanderbilt: FLA
Wake Forest: @VT
Illinois: @RUT
Kansas State: TTU
Houston: @Cincy, ECU

With only 1 green game remaining on each of their schedules, Marquette and Northwestern move off the bubble. Quite simply, they have no more opportunities to play themselves off the bubble. Teams behind them would have to win significant games to move ahead of them. Kansas State and Illinois have run out of opportunities. There is no situation outside them winning huge games in their conference tournaments where they could finish ahead of Marquette and Northwestern. That leaves only Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Houston as potential upstarts. But teams like Rhode Island, Illinois State, and Middle Tennessee State would get bumped before either of them.

Seton Hall stays on, despite only having one green game left. Unless I have the tiebreaker wrong, they could still end up in the 7th place game against Depaul. A loss there would jeopardize their NCAA hopes.

This exercise doesn't take into account bid stealers and the human element of the committee. They could come out of left field and make unexpected decisions. But on paper, Marquette has locked up its first NCAA appearance in the Wojo Era.

[PGsHeroes32]

I just don't see us as that safe.


But hopefully I'm wrong

And even more so, hopefully it doesn't need to be proven because we smash Creighton in two days

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Great analysis.  Completely agreed.  I am working on something to determine what the bubble may look like in a nightmare scenario of bids being stolen left and right next week. Will be interesting to see what it looks like.

[Windyplayer]

I just don't see us as that safe.


But hopefully I'm wrong

And even more so, hopefully it doesn't need to be proven because we smash Creighton in two days

You are wrong. Accept it. Your team is in the tourney. Kill the drama.

[PGsHeroes32]

You are wrong. Accept it. Your team is in the tourney. Kill the drama.

When teamrankings has you at 54% there's a lot to still accept.

Plus, I want to avoid Dayton.

Need to beat Creighton. Accept that.

[Windyplayer]

When teamrankings has you at 54% there's a lot to still accept.

Plus, I want to avoid Dayton.

Need to beat Creighton. Accept that.

(1) Teamrankings sounds like a neat start-up, (2) avoiding Dayton is not the same as missing out on the Dance altogether, (3) a "need" to ensure we're not in Dayton? If so, accepted.

[MarquetteDano]

I just don't see us as that safe.


But hopefully I'm wrong

And even more so, hopefully it doesn't need to be proven because we smash Creighton in two days

Per your streak,  can't you just make a Prop Bet in Vegas that Marquette does NOT make the tourney?  Then we will be sure fire locks?

[frozena pizza]

"This exercise doesn't take into account bid stealers and the human element of the committee."

Those are some pretty important variables.  Saturday is not an easy game.  We have very little margin for error currently that will be razor thin if we lose.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

"This exercise doesn't take into account bid stealers and the human element of the committee."

Those are some pretty important variables.  Saturday is not an easy game. We have very little margin for error currently that will be razor thin if we lose.

We actually have a pretty significant margin for error at this point.

[Herman Cain]

Yesterday, I made a post called 17 teams for 12 spots. With Northwestern beating Michigan with a full court Hail Mary, they have now eliminated any chance that they play themselves off the bubble. As a reminder, red games are ones that don't help much if you win but hurt a lot if you lose. Green games are ones that raise your profile if you win but don't hurt much if you lose.

Arkansas:UGA
Xavier: @DPL
USC: WASH
Seton Hall: @BUT
Providence: @SJU
Middle Tennessee State: FIU, FAU
Syracuse: GT
California: @UTAH, @COLO
Illinois State: N/A
Rhode Island: DAV
Current Cut Off
Vanderbilt: FLA
Wake Forest: @VT
Illinois: @RUT
Kansas State: TTU
Houston: @Cincy, ECU

With only 1 green game remaining on each of their schedules, Marquette and Northwestern move off the bubble. Quite simply, they have no more opportunities to play themselves off the bubble. Teams behind them would have to win significant games to move ahead of them. Kansas State and Illinois have run out of opportunities. There is no situation outside them winning huge games in their conference tournaments where they could finish ahead of Marquette and Northwestern. That leaves only Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Houston as potential upstarts. But teams like Rhode Island, Illinois State, and Middle Tennessee State would get bumped before either of them.

Seton Hall stays on, despite only having one green game left. Unless I have the tiebreaker wrong, they could still end up in the 7th place game against Depaul. A loss there would jeopardize their NCAA hopes.

This exercise doesn't take into account bid stealers and the human element of the committee. They could come out of left field and make unexpected decisions. But on paper, Marquette has locked up its first NCAA appearance in the Wojo Era.

Clearly we want Buzz and  Company to beat Wake Forest.....

[frozena pizza]

We actually have a pretty significant margin for error at this point.

So if we lose Saturday and don't win a game in the BET and there are 3-4 bid stealers, are we a lock?  Because that could happen.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

So if we lose Saturday and don't win a game in the BET and there are 3-4 bid stealers, are we a lock?  Because that could happen.

We may be in Dayton in that scenario, but I think we're still in.

Most likely going to take 7 or 8 bid stealers, and some other crazy results to push us out with an 0-2 finish. It is incredibly unlikely.

[mikekinsellaMVP]

Seton Hall stays on, despite only having one green game left. Unless I have the tiebreaker wrong, they could still end up in the 7th place game against Depaul. A loss there would jeopardize their NCAA hopes.

I believe Xavier is locked in to the 7-seed.  Of the 3 teams 1 game ahead of them, they split with 2 of them (Hall, Providence) and were swept by the other (MU).  They would have the worst record in any mini-conference and would lose any two way tie procedure (swept by MU, and MU would serve as the best win tiebreaker for both Hall and Providence.)

[PGsHeroes32]

Per your streak,  can't you just make a Prop Bet in Vegas that Marquette does NOT make the tourney?  Then we will be sure fire locks?

Lol good point.

But considering I'm on the lock train with a Creighton W.

Might as well only waste money once!

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

I agree with the green n red games.  Howver this all assumes these teams are below us.  This is a huge assumption and i could very easily seeing a vast majority of these teams somehow being ahead of us in the commitees eyes. 

Creighton would clinch it tho

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So if we lose Saturday and don't win a game in the BET and there are 3-4 bid stealers, are we a lock?  Because that could happen.

There are 7 teams currently between us and the bubble. Even if there are 4 bid stealers (crazy high), four teams behind us would have to pass us. A loss to Creighton doesn't hurt us. By my estimate, there are 6 teams with enough meat on their schedule to pass us. So yes, theoretically we could be left out. But it would require a lot to go wrong.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

There are 7 teams currently between us and the bubble. Even if there are 4 bid stealers (crazy high), four teams behind us would have to pass us. A loss to Creighton doesn't hurt us. By my estimate, there are 6 teams with enough meat on their schedule to pass us. So yes, theoretically we could be left out. But it would require a lot to go wrong.

You have no idea where we stand, it is not published, there is no true metric.  I wish there was , there isnt

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

A long time ago say a 20 year ago, i noticed a trend that said top 60 rpi and 20 wins, like 1 high major had ever missed the dance.  Recently, its gone to 68 n the rpi is supposedly less used.  Then again we dont have 20 wins.

[GWSwarrior]

There are 7 teams currently between us and the bubble. Even if there are 4 bid stealers (crazy high), four teams behind us would have to pass us. A loss to Creighton doesn't hurt us. By my estimate, there are 6 teams with enough meat on their schedule to pass us. So yes, theoretically we could be left out. But it would require a lot to go wrong.

Does UNC-Ashville still it make after the lose to Campbell?  I would guess no but will defer to the "experts", EDIT i'm a moron sorry, not even leading their conf. i'm gonna go sit in the corner and think about my actions

[Herman Cain]

Does UNC-Ashville still it make after the lose to Campbell?  I would guess no but will defer to the "experts", EDIT i'm a moron sorry, not even leading their conf. i'm gonna go sit in the corner and think about my actions

In other Big South news, Liberty was stunned by Radford. Looks. like John Dawson's career over unless he can win his appeal on the 4 minutes he played for us. John had another good season leading the team to a 14-4 record in conference and 19-12 overall.  I was hoping Liberty could have won their conference tournament and made the dance.

[Galway Eagle]

In other Big South news, Liberty was stunned by Radford. Looks. like John Dawson's career over unless he can win his appeal on the 4 minutes he played for us. John had another good season leading the team to a 14-4 record in conference and 19-12 overall.  I was hoping Liberty could have won their conference tournament and made the dance.

And I'm sure all the one fan on that program was thinking all about how he started off his career at marquette

[barfolomew]

Even if there are 4 bid stealers (crazy high), four teams behind us would have to pass us.

So I'm trying to guess at which conferences are most likely to generate a bid-stealer.

CUSA is maybe the best candidate, if MTSU has a bad night.
AAC might be next, if a UConn or a Tulsa ran the table.
Maybe BYU in the West Coast Conf. if the Zags and Gaels stumble.

After that, I'm not sure who likely candidates would be. Maybe someone in the A10 or SEC?
Could St. John's do it playing at home, if the bracket falls their way?

[IrwinFletcher]

Yesterday, I made a post called 17 teams for 12 spots. With Northwestern beating Michigan with a full court Hail Mary, they have now eliminated any chance that they play themselves off the bubble. As a reminder, red games are ones that don't help much if you win but hurt a lot if you lose. Green games are ones that raise your profile if you win but don't hurt much if you lose.

Arkansas:UGA
Xavier: @DPL
USC: WASH
Seton Hall: @BUT
Providence: @SJU
Middle Tennessee State: FIU, FAU
Syracuse: GT
California: @UTAH, @COLO
Illinois State: N/A
Rhode Island: DAV
Current Cut Off
Vanderbilt: FLA
Wake Forest: @VT
Illinois: @RUT
Kansas State: TTU
Houston: @Cincy, ECU

With only 1 green game remaining on each of their schedules, Marquette and Northwestern move off the bubble. Quite simply, they have no more opportunities to play themselves off the bubble. Teams behind them would have to win significant games to move ahead of them. Kansas State and Illinois have run out of opportunities. There is no situation outside them winning huge games in their conference tournaments where they could finish ahead of Marquette and Northwestern. That leaves only Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Houston as potential upstarts. But teams like Rhode Island, Illinois State, and Middle Tennessee State would get bumped before either of them.

Seton Hall stays on, despite only having one green game left. Unless I have the tiebreaker wrong, they could still end up in the 7th place game against Depaul. A loss there would jeopardize their NCAA hopes.

This exercise doesn't take into account bid stealers and the human element of the committee. They could come out of left field and make unexpected decisions. But on paper, Marquette has locked up its first NCAA appearance in the Wojo Era.

So it is written, so it shall be done.

[TheGym]

(1) Teamrankings sounds like a neat start-up, (2) avoiding Dayton is not the same as missing out on the Dance altogether, (3) a "need" to ensure we're not in Dayton? If so, accepted.

It is true that getting a game in Dayton is "making the dance", but it really does not feel like it as a fan.  Until we get a game on Thurs. or Fri. when all the other games are going on, it does not feel like you made the NCAA tournament.

[brandx]

I just don't see us as that safe.


But hopefully I'm wrong

And even more so, hopefully it doesn't need to be proven because we smash Creighton in two days

Same here. I am missing something.

We were on the bubble with 3 games to play, but we are a lock if we lose 2 out of those 3. Losing 2 of 3 moves you down, not up.