We Are Dancing

[muguru]

Dammit.  That means we'd play Thursday afternoon right?

Only if they are the 4/5. if they end up as the 3 or the 6 it will be the last game Thursday night.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Up to 58 in our biggest detriment, RPI.

Gents, we are dancing.

[forgetful]

Unfortunately only if SJU beats PC as well

I think if PC beast SJU and we beat Creighton, we get the 4-seed and Creighton the 5-seed and get to play them back to back.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think if PC beast SJU and we beat Creighton, we get the 4-seed and Creighton the 5-seed and get to play them back to back.

I think we play CU as well if they beat us, PC loses to SJU and SHU loses to Butler. 6/3 game.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm feeling pretty confident. About 95%. Not ready to call it a lock. As much as I think our resume is solid, you just never know what the committee is thinking.

That being said, it is now impossible for us to face Depaul in the first round of the BET. That. Is. Huge.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'm feeling pretty confident. About 95%. Not ready to call it a lock. As much as I think our resume is solid, you just never know what the committee is thinking.

That being said, it is now impossible for us to face Depaul in the first round of the BET. That. Is. Huge.

Cmon TAMU. 95%.

Obviously if all hell broke lose and we had 5 bid stealers combined with us losing our next two, we'll be nervous, but we're still playing in Dayton.

[statnik]

Book it.

Lock City.

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this, but all of our big wins come with caveats.  If we sweep Creighton, both wins were against a Watson-less Creighton, which is about .500 in the Big East.  Both of our wins against Xavier were against this struggling six loss in a row Xavier, also with injury issues.  Finally our W against Villanova was pulling a rabbit out of a hat on one of their worse shooting nights.  I'm not convinced we're entirely deserving yet.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this, but all of our big wins come with caveats.  If we sweep Creighton, both wins were against a Watson-less Creighton, which is about .500 in the Big East.  Both of our wins against Xavier were against this struggling six loss in a row Xavier, also with injury issues.  Finally our W against Villanova was pulling a rabbit out of a hat on one of their worse shooting nights.  I'm not convinced we're entirely deserving yet.

Scoop takes?

[forgetful]

Also, right now I think there is no way we end up lower than the 6 seed, which means we can't get another bad loss.  I think any tie scenario would include Xavier and we beat them in tie breakers.

Not sure though, since the scenarios get complicated, but pretty sure the sweep gets us at worst the 6-seed.

[GB Warrior]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this, but all of our big wins come with caveats.  If we sweep Creighton, both wins were against a Watson-less Creighton, which is about .500 in the Big East.  Both of our wins against Xavier were against this struggling six loss in a row Xavier, also with injury issues.  Finally our W against Villanova was pulling a rabbit out of a hat on one of their worse shooting nights.  I'm not convinced we're entirely deserving yet.

Oh for christs sake. Yes, you're right on all counts, but it all balances out. We shot lights out in our two wins against X, and played balls-to-the-wall down the stretch against Nova. It takes two to tango, and we will be judged for our wins and nothing else.

Our wins against XU will only look less attractive because their overall rating has plummeted.

[brewcity77]

We're in. Guaranteed the 6 at worst, which means our remaining worst case is losing to Creighton and Creighton/Providence/Seton Hall. Maybe X, but still, no more bad losses. Time to celebrate.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Also, right now I think there is no way we end up lower than the 6 seed, which means we can't get another bad loss.  I think any tie scenario would include Xavier and we beat them in tie breakers.

Not sure though, since the scenarios get complicated, but pretty sure the sweep gets us at worst the 6-seed.

Correct. Clinched at worst 6 seed.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Unfortunately only if SJU beats PC as well

Not neccessarily.  If Butler beats Seton Hall and MU beats Creighton, it would be a 3 way tie.  MU would sweep Creighton, who swept PC, who swept MU.  Mini-conference would be a 3 way tie at 2-2.  MU would win tie breaker based on best win, our win over Nova.

A 4 way tie is a whole different story.  I'll let someone else tackle that.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Not neccessarily.  If Butler beats Seton Hall and MU beats Creighton, it would be a 3 way tie.  MU would sweep Creighton, who swept PC, who swept MU.  Mini-conference would be a 3 way tie at 2-2.  MU would win tie breaker based on best win, our win over Nova.

A 4 way tie is a whole different story.  I'll let someone else tackle that.

Pretty sure X split w all those teams. So goes back to us vs PC on tie breaker. Does it then go back to Nova?

[forgetful]

We're in. Guaranteed the 6 at worst, which means our remaining worst case is losing to Creighton and Creighton/Providence/Seton Hall. Maybe X, but still, no more bad losses. Time to celebrate.

Looking through things, it is really hard for us to not be playing Creighton the next two games.  Most scenarios end that way. 

I like our chances of winning at least 1 out of 2 against them.

[brewcity77]

Not neccessarily.  If Butler beats Seton Hall and MU beats Creighton, it would be a 3 way tie.  MU would sweep Creighton, who swept PC, who swept MU.  Mini-conference would be a 3 way tie at 2-2.  MU would win tie breaker based on best win, our win over Nova.

A 4 way tie is a whole different story.  I'll let someone else tackle that.

4 way tie at 9-9, we get 5th (Creighton in 3, PC in 4).

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Looking through things, it is really hard for us to not be playing Creighton the next two games.  Most scenarios end that way. 

I like our chances of winning at least 1 out of 2 against them.

Let's say we beat them Saturday. Gonna make that matchup at MSG a real dooozy.

[WayOfTheWarrior]

Agree we are in for sure.

What will it take for us to avoid being an 8/9 in the tourney? I feel like that's worst case right now outside of playing in Dayton. Oddly enough I wouldn't mind being a 10 or 11. But to heck with that, let's make a run in the BET!

[MUBigDance]

Yes we are in.

[forgetful]

Agree we are in for sure.

What will it take for us to avoid being an 8/9 in the tourney? I feel like that's worst case right now outside of playing in Dayton. Oddly enough I wouldn't mind being a 10 or 11. But to heck with that, let's make a run in the BET!

Heck, take the 8-9 game.  That means we likely win our next two.  Then pray we are opposite Gonzaga.  Take them down and walk our way to the elite 8.

[brandx]

Yes we are in.

I certainly could be wrong, but losing 2 out of 3 after being among Last Four In does not guarantee a bid.

[BossplayaOtto]

JJJJ, I also want to Thank you for all of your efforts breaking down the bubble. Your work has been extremely enlightening and entertaining, especially when the head-in-the sand people chime in with their personal views on what they believe it will take to dance.

In JJJJ I trust.

That being said, I (like everyone but the hater-parade) will be rooting hard for a big W Saturday on Senior day and for the team to build additional mo with a decent showing in the BET.

With the way this team can fill it up, we just need a ticket to the dance and we could just maybe shock some teams in what should be a wide-open tourney.

March Madness is back for Warriors fans and it feels so good to be back!!

[brewcity77]

Not neccessarily.  If Butler beats Seton Hall and MU beats Creighton, it would be a 3 way tie.  MU would sweep Creighton, who swept PC, who swept MU.  Mini-conference would be a 3 way tie at 2-2.  MU would win tie breaker based on best win, our win over Nova.

A 4 way tie is a whole different story.  I'll let someone else tackle that.

Adding Seton Hall in, who split with all three, still gives us the 3 on the Nova win.

[WayOfTheWarrior]

Heck, take the 8-9 game.  That means we likely win our next two.  Then pray we are opposite Gonzaga.  Take them down and walk our way to the elite 8.

Yeah, Zags are the only 1 seed I would feel we would have a shot at. Can't get ahead of ourselves though. The thought of a play-in game leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Don't want any part of that.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

JJJJ, I also want to Thank you for all of your efforts breaking down the bubble. You work has been extremely enlightening and entertaining, especially when the head-in-the sand people's chime in with their personal views on what they believe it will take to dance.

In JJJJ I trust.

That being said, I (like everyone but the hater-parade) will be rooting hard for a big W Saturday on Senior day and for the team to build additional mo with a decent showing in the BET.

With the way this team can fill it up, we just need a ticket to the dance and we could just maybe shock some teams in what should be a wide-open tourney.

March Madness is back for Warriors fans and it feels so good to be back!!

Touché my friend.

Trust me, I'll be watching in anticipation. Just glad I'll be able to breathe a bit easier from now til then.