15 Teams for 10 Spots

[MUBigDance]

Comment on 7th seed.
It has to be Xavier. After head to head, you compare records against the top team/teams in the BE and move down until one team has an advantage.

If MU involved in any 9-9 head2head miniconf with X. Then X is the 7 seed because everyone split who could be 9-9 except PR swept MU and MU swept X and X swept .... nobody. So MU would be X's undoing if part of a 9-9 miniconf.

If MU wins and is not part of an X 9-9 mini conf then the head2head is inconclusive ... all split (X/SH/PR) no matter who it is. So who has the best record against nova of the possible 9-9's? Nobody, it's nova and MU and Butler are only ones who beat them. Butler next. Interesting X lost twice to BT and PR split so X can't finish ahead of PR. If SH is 9-9 then they would have lost their last game to BT and have two losses also. So on we go...now it's a race between X and SH.
Their record against the 10-8's would include MU,CR, and maybe PR.
This is where MU is X's downfall again. SH split with all of the possible 10-8s but X has that pesky sweep at the hands of MU.

So X is 7 and will play DePaul twice...very little chance for redemption. I think they are out of the big dance unless the win the next 3.

[PGsHeroes32]

Same here. I am missing something.

We were on the bubble with 3 games to play, but we are a lock if we lose 2 out of those 3. Losing 2 of 3 moves you down, not up.

Not necessarily since the win is a top 30 win and the losses would be "good losses" while other teams could also lose.

But yeah, it certainly isn't something that screams "lock".

If I were bet I'd actually say I think people are right saying we'd be in. But it's not a gurantee

[cheebs09]

Not necessarily since the win is a top 30 win and the losses would be "good losses" while other teams could also lose.

But yeah, it certainly isn't something that screams "lock".

If I were bet I'd actually say I think people are right saying we'd be in. But it's not a gurantee

I don't think we are a lock yet, but I'd say we are 90%. Some of this has to do with the bubble teams (especially ACC) falling off and failing to get big wins. I personally think we are better off than where Lunardi/Palm have us. However, I don't want to say lock until we are immune to bid stealers.

A difference this year is we have some evidence from the committee based on the Top-16. I think what they seemed to value is very good for us. Our top 50 wins stand out compared to the surrounding teams.

[muguru]

Here's my problem...and I have said this before..I do not trust the committee and never will. Sure, most of MU's metrics look good, and even maybe history of numbers favor MU...but what we don't know is what the committee thinks of MU as far as the eye test goes. All it takes is one committee member for example to think they aren't worthy and get others on board with that belief. Maybe this is a committee that decided they want to take more mid majors this year, and leave some majors(Like MU) out for reasons only known to them. I mean really, what would be the fallout for them if something like that happened?? Nothing in reality. People would complain and piss and moan(like everyone does every year about teams being left out), but once the tourney started, it would mostly be forgotten, and besides, once it's set there's nothing can be done about it..so sure maybe people would always remember this committee as the one that screwed team X and Team Y and team Z when it was pretty obvious. And all it would take is one of those teams to make a run, and in their minds they are then justified.

I'm just saying...We just don't know for 100% certain what they are thinking about MU.

[amen426]

14** teams for 10 spots. You can cross Houston off that list.

Only 1 top 50 win.

0-4 vs the only two tournament teams in the AAC. They needed a Cincy win tonight to even be in the conversation - but they're losing by 25 with 9 minutes left.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Here's my problem...and I have said this before..I do not trust the committee and never will. Sure, most of MU's metrics look good, and even maybe history of numbers favor MU...but what we don't know is what the committee thinks of MU as far as the eye test goes. All it takes is one committee member for example to think they aren't worthy and get others on board with that belief. Maybe this is a committee that decided they want to take more mid majors this year, and leave some majors(Like MU) out for reasons only known to them. I mean really, what would be the fallout for them if something like that happened?? Nothing in reality. People would complain and piss and moan(like everyone does every year about teams being left out), but once the tourney started, it would mostly be forgotten, and besides, once it's set there's nothing can be done about it..so sure maybe people would always remember this committee as the one that screwed team X and Team Y and team Z when it was pretty obvious. And all it would take is one of those teams to make a run, and in their minds they are then justified.

I'm just saying...We just don't know for 100% certain what they are thinking about MU.

Exactly where i am.  The nova win is a great hold card tho

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Oh to be 1-3 against butler n provi right now, woulda, coulda, shoulda been 4-0

[amen426]

Here's my problem...and I have said this before..I do not trust the committee and never will. Sure, most of MU's metrics look good, and even maybe history of numbers favor MU...but what we don't know is what the committee thinks of MU as far as the eye test goes. All it takes is one committee member for example to think they aren't worthy and get others on board with that belief. Maybe this is a committee that decided they want to take more mid majors this year, and leave some majors(Like MU) out for reasons only known to them. I mean really, what would be the fallout for them if something like that happened?? Nothing in reality. People would complain and piss and moan(like everyone does every year about teams being left out), but once the tourney started, it would mostly be forgotten, and besides, once it's set there's nothing can be done about it..so sure maybe people would always remember this committee as the one that screwed team X and Team Y and team Z when it was pretty obvious. And all it would take is one of those teams to make a run, and in their minds they are then justified.

I'm just saying...We just don't know for 100% certain what they are thinking about MU.

The 10 person committee has:
1. Creighton's AD
2. Duke's AD

The committee begins meeting in NYC next Tuesday. So Creighton's last game will have been against MU. Not to mention they will be in NYC for a potential Big East tournament game between the two teams.. Plenty of opportunity to make a good impression, if that 103 point performance from earlier this season hasn't already.

And Dukies love their own. Did you guys know that Wojo used to slap the floor when he was a player at Duke? I heard that on TV once.

[PGsHeroes32]

Here's my problem...and I have said this before..I do not trust the committee and never will. Sure, most of MU's metrics look good, and even maybe history of numbers favor MU...but what we don't know is what the committee thinks of MU as far as the eye test goes. All it takes is one committee member for example to think they aren't worthy and get others on board with that belief. Maybe this is a committee that decided they want to take more mid majors this year, and leave some majors(Like MU) out for reasons only known to them. I mean really, what would be the fallout for them if something like that happened?? Nothing in reality. People would complain and piss and moan(like everyone does every year about teams being left out), but once the tourney started, it would mostly be forgotten, and besides, once it's set there's nothing can be done about it..so sure maybe people would always remember this committee as the one that screwed team X and Team Y and team Z when it was pretty obvious. And all it would take is one of those teams to make a run, and in their minds they are then justified.

I'm just saying...We just don't know for 100% certain what they are thinking about MU.

One things I'll say regarding this is

While we don't know how they view us, I think eye test favors us. Pretty much anyone who references that says we pass it.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Same here. I am missing something.

We were on the bubble with 3 games to play, but we are a lock if we lose 2 out of those 3. Losing 2 of 3 moves you down, not up.

That's some world class analysis right there

[Dr. Blackheart]

Ah...for the mole

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Comment on 7th seed.
It has to be Xavier. After head to head, you compare records against the top team/teams in the BE and move down until one team has an advantage.

If MU involved in any 9-9 head2head miniconf with X. Then X is the 7 seed because everyone split who could be 9-9 except PR swept MU and MU swept X and X swept .... nobody. So MU would be X's undoing if part of a 9-9 miniconf.

If MU wins and is not part of an X 9-9 mini conf then the head2head is inconclusive ... all split (X/SH/PR) no matter who it is. So who has the best record against nova of the possible 9-9's? Nobody, it's nova and MU and Butler are only ones who beat them. Butler next. Interesting X lost twice to BT and PR split so X can't finish ahead of PR. If SH is 9-9 then they would have lost their last game to BT and have two losses also. So on we go...now it's a race between X and SH.
Their record against the 10-8's would include MU,CR, and maybe PR.
This is where MU is X's downfall again. SH split with all of the possible 10-8s but X has that pesky sweep at the hands of MU.

So X is 7 and will play DePaul twice...very little chance for redemption. I think they are out of the big dance unless the win the next 3.

I don't think X is locked into the 7. If X, MU, and PC win but SH loses, I think X finishes 6 and SH finishes 7.

[jsglow]

I don't think X is locked into the 7. If X, MU, and PC win but SH loses, I think X finishes 6 and SH finishes 7.

That's not the impression Coach Mack gives.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I don't think X is locked into the 7. If X, MU, and PC win but SH loses, I think X finishes 6 and SH finishes 7.

I think in that scenario with X and SHU tied at 9-9, the tie breaker drops all the way to MU in 4th, which SHU beats X. They will have both been swept by Nova and Butler, and split with PC.

I think.

[bilsu]

Iowa just won at Wisconsin. I do not think it puts Iowa in at this point, but they are moving closer.

[wildbillsb]

Ah...for the mole

Melanoma-niac?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think in that scenario with X and SHU tied at 9-9, the tie breaker drops all the way to MU in 4th, which SHU beats X. They will have both been swept by Nova and Butler, and split with PC.

I think.

You know what, you are right. Honestly, was just going down the list and thought well X's best win is @Creighton that's better than Hall's best win.....but technically under that scenario we are a better win!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Iowa just won at Wisconsin. I do not think it puts Iowa in at this point, but they are moving closer.

They were dead by the side of the road weeks ago.

[amen426]

California on the other hand is going the opposite direction. Getting stomped by 20 points in Salt Lake right now, on their way to their 4th L in 5. 

Lunardi had them in his last 4 in, but there's a good chance they drop out after this game. And they still have a tough road contest at Colorado this weekend. These are the kind of games that really don't help the resume, but can certainly knock you out of the conversation.

Looks very likely that the the PAC-12 gets only 4 bids - and could get only 3 depending on how USC finishes, and how the conference tournament goes. PAC12 had only 4 two years ago. And the SEC has had only 3 bids in 2 of the last 3 years -- so it wouldn't be shocking.

[GB Warrior]

Iowa will get a bid if they win the B1G tournament, and only then. There are no elite teams in the Big 10, so upsetting Purdue (who I really like, in all transparency) and Wisconsin are not as impressive as it sounds on paper. The Big 10 has been atrocious this year.

All of that being said, let's not take anything away from how much fun it is to watch the Badgers' tailspin.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

California on the other hand is going the opposite direction. Getting stomped by 20 points in Salt Lake right now, on their way to their 4th L in 5. 

Lunardi had them in his last 4 in, but there's a good chance they drop out after this game. And they still have a tough road contest at Colorado this weekend. These are the kind of games that really don't help the resume, but can certainly knock you out of the conversation.

It certainly is interesting to see the runner up for Wojo's job looking up at him in year three despite being handed a much better starting point.

[RJax55]

It certainly is interesting to see the runner up for Wojo's job looking up at him in year three despite being handed a much better starting point.

The shocking part to me is the number of jobs he's rumored for in this Pete Thamel column:
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/23/nc-state-indiana-coaching-carousel

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The shocking part to me is the number of jobs he's rumored for in this Pete Thamel column:
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/23/nc-state-indiana-coaching-carousel

Damn, he says Groce being fired is a foregone conclusion. They are in the first four out! I'd have a hard time seeing him get fried if he manages to sneak Illinois in.