finishing

[Marquette4life]

What do we need to finish the season with to make the tourney? Expectations? Prediction? Could we only win 3 more and 1 in the big east tourney

[GoldenDieners32]

We will make the tourney if we go either 9-9 or 8-10 in BE play

[wadesworld]

What do we need to finish the season with to make the tourney? Expectations? Prediction? Could we only win 3 more and 1 in the big east tourney

We need to win Saturday and go from there.

[GoldenDieners32]

We need to win Saturday and go from there.

One game at a time #TrustTheProcess

[GE911]

Prediction: 1-5 down the stretch and miss all post season action

[wadesworld]

One game at a time #TrustTheProcess

Problem is trust the process is 18-33 with a terribly constructed roster. I'd prefer to shoot for higher.

[muguru]

Look, I have preached this repeatedly...the EASIEST way into the tourney every single year is to defend your home floor, and win one game on the road, and you are in..it's really that simple. Except MU has been TERRIBLE at defending their home floor for years now. That's precisely why they don't make the dance anymore. It's sickening really.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Its also why no one is showing up for the games

[muguru]

Its also why no one is showing up for the games

E-X-A-C-T-L-Y! No one cares about the MU BB program anymore like they used to. No one wants to come to games anymore knowing there's no better then a 50-50 shot of walking out of there with a win..at least against good teams. Start protecting the home floor, and it would be amazing how many good things started happening again...attendance picks up, you make the dance every year etc. It's really that simple.

[21rooster]

I think people are foolish to think 9-9 gets MU in.  This isn't a household name - this is a team that hasn't made ANY tourney in recent years.  To get in at 9-9, MU would need nearly every favorite to win its conference tourney.  It's 4-2 or bust. 

[amen426]

I think people are foolish to think 9-9 gets MU in.  This isn't a household name - this is a team that hasn't made ANY tourney in recent years.  To get in at 9-9, MU would need nearly every favorite to win its conference tourney.  It's 4-2 or bust.

How about 3-3 with a big East tourny win?

I still think if we get 3 wins we will have a strong chance to win 1 BE tourny gm. We will enter the Big East tournament in must-win mode, and play against Butler/Xavier or Creighton who have already secured a bid.

I'd still rather get 4 wins before NYC, but I like our odds of winning a 1st Rd match up if we NEED that win to get in.

[brewcity77]

I think people are foolish to think 9-9 gets MU in.  This isn't a household name - this is a team that hasn't made ANY tourney in recent years.  To get in at 9-9, MU would need nearly every favorite to win its conference tourney.  It's 4-2 or bust.

I agree. Soft bubble or not, we need to get to 10-8. And I really don't think the BET matters unless we win it. If we go 20-13 (9-9) and lose in the final, I still think we go to the NIT. I'd happily be wrong, but that 10th conference win I feel would be worth more than 2 at MSG.

[amen426]

I agree. Soft bubble or not, we need to get to 10-8. And I really don't think the BET matters unless we win it. If we go 20-13 (9-9) and lose in the final, I still think we go to the NIT. I'd happily be wrong, but that 10th conference win I feel would be worth more than 2 at MSG.

That can't be true. If we beat the 4 seed and Villanova in the BE tournament (and go 9-9) that would push us much higher than any 10-8 scenario with a 1st Rd loss would.

[brewcity77]

That can't be true. If we beat the 4 seed and Villanova in the BE tournament (and go 9-9) that would push us much higher than any 10-8 scenario with a 1st Rd loss would.

I don't think the Selection Committee puts much stock in conference tournaments results. People make a big deal of them, but I don't believe you play your way in or out the final weekend, you do that from November to February.

I fully believe that 10-8 with a first round loss would be more heavily valued then beating the 4 and Nova simply because it's easier to only have contingency plans for auto bids.

[mu_hilltopper]

Would even 4-2 get us in? 

RPI Wizard says that only gets MU to 57, with the two likeliest losses @Xavier and (@Gtown or @Prov.)

Throw in a BET win vs. Butler, loss to Nova, and that gets us to 47. 

Run them yourself:  http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Would even 4-2 get us in? 

RPI Wizard says that only gets MU to 57, with the two likeliest losses @Xavier and (@Gtown or @Prov.)

Throw in a BET win vs. Butler, loss to Nova, and that gets us to 47. 

Run them yourself:  http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html

Combined with good wins (Nova, Creighton) and only 1 "bad" loss (@SJU) it would be plenty.

[mu_hilltopper]

Combined with good wins (Nova, Creighton) and only 1 "bad" loss (@SJU) it would be plenty.

So .. yer sayin' RPI doesn't matter?

[4everwarriors]

Der a bubble team by finishin' 4-2. Only by beatin' Creighton and VU is dis discussion relevant. Crap da bed and go 3-3, 2-4, 1-5 orr 0-6 and we're back ta we're waitin' on MLB season, ai na?

[brewcity77]

So .. yer sayin' RPI doesn't matter?

Not that it doesn't matter, but that an RPI in the 40s or 50s is certainly good enough for an at large given the rest of our resume.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Would even 4-2 get us in? 

RPI Wizard says that only gets MU to 57, with the two likeliest losses @Xavier and (@Gtown or @Prov.)

Throw in a BET win vs. Butler, loss to Nova, and that gets us to 47. 

Run them yourself:  http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html

The BE is going to get at least 5 teams. We still match up very well resume wise with everyone after the top 4. That's why I think 9-9 with our Nova and  Creighton wins at least puts us in the conversation for Dayton assuming we finish in the fifth spot in the Big East and none of the teams currently behind us pass us. 

Things definitely would have been a lot easier with a win last night, that is for sure.

[4everwarriors]

GU is like MU, inconsistent. Could come down ta Saturday's game, hey?

[amen426]

I don't think the Selection Committee puts much stock in conference tournaments results. People make a big deal of them, but I don't believe you play your way in or out the final weekend, you do that from November to February.

I fully believe that 10-8 with a first round loss would be more heavily valued then beating the 4 and Nova simply because it's easier to only have contingency plans for auto bids.

So the committee just stops watching once conference play ends? I could be wrong, but I assumed all conference tournament games would contribute to your RPI, SOS, Last 12 Record, Record vs. Top 50, etc...

Just simply running a scenario or two on RPI Forecast for comparison...

Scenario 1: Go 3-3 in regular season (beating GTown, Providence, and St Johns), then going 1-1 in Big East Tournament (Win vs. Butler, Loss vs. Nova).

Record (19-13), RPI: 62, SOS: 38

Scenario 2: Go 4-2 in regular season (beating those same 3 + Xavier at home), then going 0-1 in Big East Tournament (Loss vs. Butler).

Record (19-12), RPI: 62, SOS: 52
...

I'm guessing the SOS factor is a little overblown since it doesn't factor in everyone's potential conference tournament games, but I would at the very least consider those resume's equally likely to make the tournament.

Did the committee ever indicate that a conference tournament game does not have equal weight? I always assumed it was the same as every regular season game.

I agree that you can't make up for a poor resume with a nice showing in the tournament. But you should still treat those individual games as your 32nd and/or 33rd game on your resume.

And with that being said - 4 wins the rest of the way should get us to the same place on the S-Curve, whether it comes at the Bradley Center or NYC.

[brewcity77]

The Committee doesn't come out and say it, but the number of times I've heard people say "they played themselves in" only to see a team snubbed, or heard "they needed a win to get in" only to see a team lose and still get in, or watched as Saturday and Sunday results seemed to play no factor into seeding, the less stock I've put in conference tournaments.

I know how the numbers work, I know that logically those games should matter, but I really feel the Committee almost treats them like recency bias and at best treats them with a grain of salt.

I'd rather win 10 in league than lose the conference championship with 8-9 wins.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So .. yer sayin' RPI doesn't matter?

No it does. But a top 60 RPI is enough combined with other factors. Keep in mind that teams with RPIs in the 70 have gotten in before.

[mu_hilltopper]

No it does. But a top 60 RPI is enough combined with other factors. Keep in mind that teams with RPIs in the 70 have gotten in before.

This was as of as of Feb 2016, maybe these records got nudged a month after that.

Lowest RPI to get an at-large bid:
• 67 - USC (2011)
• 64 - Marquette (2011)
• 63 - North Carolina State (2005), Stanford (2007)

Outside the Big Six:
• 50 - Air Force (2006)
• 49 - VCU (2011)

So .. 70 will not do it.   

RPIForecast.com has us at 71 for the season.

My guess: Finishing above those expectations, going 4-2 with a 57 RPI and 0-1 in the BET .. and we're NIT bound.