Different landscape in 18 days

[IrwinFletcher]

As a follow up, I said above I think our chances of dancing is 90% ..

This website (which is pretty cool) has our chances > 99.9%.

https://crashingthedance.com/teams/MARQET

Yesterday our seed was #9 .. today #7.

With 6 minutes to go in the Nova game, Nova had a 99% chance of winning.

With 10 Leage games plus the Conference Tourney, saying we have a 99% chance is a bit risky

[buckchuckler]

With 6 minutes to go in the Nova game, Nova had a 99% chance of winning.

With 10 Leage games plus the Conference Tourney, saying we have a 99% chance is a bit risky

How about this:

If we don't piss down our legs, we are in.

[Loose Cannon]

How about this:

If we don't piss down our legs, we are in.

That doesn't hold Water.

[PGsHeroes32]

Have you seen our last 10 games? 5 wins should be a no brainer if we are actually a tournament worthy team

Don't get me wrong I think we definitely get in.

But 99% means we basically cannot fail.

When you still need 5 wins against BE teams that isn't 99% lol

[PGsHeroes32]

I'm guessing that the site that Hilltopper found was saying that MU's chances of making the NCAA was >99.9 if the field were selected at this point in time.  Otherwise, it doesn't make sense.

Great point. That's gotta be it

[mu_hilltopper]

Correct .. the site says it's 99.9% if Selection Sunday was today.

That being said .. with all the "expected RPI" calculations that can be made, one could throw that into the calcs to arrive at a probability, i.e., "if the team keeps playing the way the numbers say they should, then XX% is their probability."

[TSmith34, Inc.]

That doesn't hold Water.

You think our chance will leak away if we lose a few?

[Loose Cannon]

You think our chance will leak away if we lose a few?

You Win, I though it was only us dumb guys on this thread.

[Tugg Speedman]

What a different landscape there is for MU basketball after 18 short days.

MU was 1-2 in the BE, we'd lost 5 of 6 to legit teams and facing another dozen legit games looked like a death spiral to another debate about maybe making the NIT.

I'd posted that I thought MU had a 30% chance this year, and a 50% chance next of making the NCAAs, and that seemed in the ballpark.

A respected poster (nameless) and I were texting .. he estimated a 60% chance Wojo wouldn't be our coach in 15 months, factoring in 4 seasons of no NCAAs that seemed a decent guess.

All that has changed.  Our margin for error missing the dance this year has expanded dramatically, and I'd say we have a 90% chance of getting in, which also means that 60%-Wojo gone percentage drops to zero.

Let's go, Warriors.

So, you panicked at the bottom.

[UticaBusBarn]

Just beat Providence on Saturday!

[jsglow]

The biggest change I saw from Wojo was pulling the right, unconventional move that triggered the comeback. The 1-3-1 was doing ok, but still struggled with Luke in there...however convention says you need Luke in there to get rebounds and score on the offensive end. Instead Wojo pulled Luke, went small/quick which improved our close outs in the 1-3-1 and allowed the offensive end to get mismatches with Katin on Nova's 5. Wright didn't adjust and MU got some breaks with some missed shots and we win.

It was coaching at it's finest, and if Wojo is going to be able to start making stuff like that work, we're in very good hands

That was really good wasn't it?  Let's not forget Duane's contribution at the defensive point.  He started the comeback by taking the charge.  He had active hands and feet at the top of the zone.  And Katin initiated the offense very successfully forcing the switch until he got onto the center and blew by him toward the rim.  All super creative and situation specific.

[jsglow]

Don't get me wrong I think we definitely get in.

But 99% means we basically cannot fail.

When you still need 5 wins against BE teams that isn't 99% lol

Most sites have us around 80%. Seems about right to me.

[mu_hilltopper]

So, you panicked at the bottom.

At what turned out to be the bottom, yes.  Didn't appear to be at the time. 

The pivot was hanging 100 on the #8 team on the road and beating the #1 defending NC .. if you foresaw that, good on you.

[Holly Ellenson is my Mom]

Let's just win the Big East tourney and punch our own ticket...

[tower912]

Let's just win the Big East tourney and punch our own ticket...

The landscape isn't THAT different.   

[GoldenDieners32]

We went from "will we make the NIT" to " What seed will we be in the NCAAs"