More conference expansion nonsense

[Marcus92]

Here we go again. Y'all ready for this?

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/15470707/houston-cougars-memphis-tigers-boise-state-broncos-possible-candidates-big-12-college-football-expansion

In a presentation to athletic directors and football coaches, a research firm concluded that having 12 teams would give the Big 12 the best chance of making the college football playoff. That would require adding 2 new teams. ESPN speculates about the prospects of the following schools joining the conference:

BYU
Boise St.
UCF
Cincinnati
Colorado St.
Connecticut
Houston
Memphis
USF
Tulane

Maybe this is simply offseason click-fodder. But it almost feels like ESPN is actively campaigning for the AAC to be ripped apart just a few years after its formation. Big surprise. I'm thankful we left when we did.

If I was a Big 12 fan or cared at all about college football, I don't know that I'd get excited about any of these teams. Houston? Tulane? Seriously? It's like like looking at the standings for Conference USA 3.0. Good luck to the Big 12 — you're gonna need it.

[GGGG]

The Big 12 completely f**ked itself over by letting Texas roll over them.  It started a landslide whereby four schools left the conference, and left them where they are right now. 

[Billy Hoyle]

Here we go again. Y'all ready for this?

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/15470707/houston-cougars-memphis-tigers-boise-state-broncos-possible-candidates-big-12-college-football-expansion

In a presentation to athletic directors and football coaches, a research firm concluded that having 12 teams would give the Big 12 the best chance of making the college football playoff. That would require adding 2 new teams. ESPN speculates about the prospects of the following schools joining the conference:

BYU
Boise St.
UCF
Cincinnati
Colorado St.
Connecticut
Houston
Memphis
USF
Tulane

Maybe this is simply offseason click-fodder. But it almost feels like ESPN is actively campaigning for the AAC to be ripped apart just a few years after its formation. Big surprise. I'm thankful we left when we did.

If I was a Big 12 fan or cared at all about college football, I don't know that I'd get excited about any of these teams. Houston? Tulane? Seriously? It's like like looking at the standings for Conference USA 3.0. Good luck to the Big 12 — you're gonna need it.

There are only 4 legitimate candidates on this list:

Cincy - their President has spent a lot of money lobbying to get into the Big 12. Geographically it works with WVU, pretty strong department across the board.

BYU - Fits with current geography, wouldn't need to increase their budget, brings a huge viewing audience.

Memphis - Football on the upswing, new TV market, decent fit geographically with WVU

Colorado State - huge increase in budget the past few years, new on-campus football stadium, geographic fit, gets the Big 12 back in the Denver market.  They fired a previous AD because they were not being mentioned in conference realignment talk.

Boise State - on the fringe of a legit candidate for membership but not quite there yet.

One team will be east of the Mississippi to bridge the geographic gap with WVU. UConn is just too far removed and football sucks.

[SaveOD238]

If the Big 12 would just poach two ACC schools (Florida St and Clemson), then Uconn and Cincy could find homes in the ACC and everyone would be happy.  Then this whole conference realignment madness would go away.  Boise and BYU might find themselves left out, but they could always become #13 and #14 in the Big 12 or Pac 12 without disrupting the status quo too much. No one else on this list really deserves a spot at the big boys table.

That said, if the Big 12 looks west Colorado St is an interesting option with the new stadium and the Denver media market, which they lost when the Buffs headed to the Pac 12

[Coleman]

Not all of these choices are terrible, although some certainly are.

I think BYU and Colorado State both make a lot of sense. It makes sense for the Big 12 to have 12 teams, for a whole bunch of reasons besides the name.

This is one instance of conference expansion that I don't think is all that crazy.

[GGGG]

There are only 4 legitimate candidates on this list:

Cincy - their President has spent a lot of money lobbying to get into the Big 12. Geographically it works with WVU, pretty strong department across the board.

BYU - Fits with current geography, wouldn't need to increase their budget, brings a huge viewing audience.

Memphis - Football on the upswing, new TV market, decent fit geographically with WVU

Colorado State - huge increase in budget the past few years, new on-campus football stadium, geographic fit, gets the Big 12 back in the Denver market.  They fired a previous AD because they were not being mentioned in conference realignment talk.

If by "legit" you mean "less depressing than the alternatives" then yes. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If the Big 12 would just poach two ACC schools (Florida St and Clemson), then Uconn and Cincy could find homes in the ACC and everyone would be happy.  Then this whole conference realignment madness would go away.  Boise and BYU might find themselves left out, but they could always become #13 and #14 in the Big 12 or Pac 12 without disrupting the status quo too much. No one else on this list really deserves a spot at the big boys table.

That said, if the Big 12 looks west Colorado St is an interesting option with the new stadium and the Denver media market, which they lost when the Buffs headed to the Pac 12

Conference Realignment will never end. Not as long as there's more money to grab. Also, not convinced that UConn would get the ACC invite. They could be left in the cold...again

[Marcus92]

A couple responses from around the web:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-dodd/25577058/expansion-would-improve-big-12s-playoff-chances-by-10-15-percent

Dennis Dodd at CBS Sports takes a decidedly less speculative approach than ESPN. "[Improvement commissioner] Bowlsby reiterated that a decision — whatever it is — needs to be made this year." So, it doesn't matter whether it makes sense or not, just make a decision soon. Sounds like a great approach.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/5/5/11593896/big-12-conference-realignment-teams-please-just-stop-i-want-to-go-to-bed

A pretty funny take on the Big 12's drawn-out expansion talks. SBNation even adds a few new candidates, including Wichita State: "They don't even have a football team. Give the Shockers a football team, Big 12, then add it to your conference. I just want this to stop."

[Billy Hoyle]

Conference Realignment will never end. Not as long as there's more money to grab. Also, not convinced that UConn would get the ACC invite. They could be left in the cold...again

Jim Delaney will not rest until the Big Ten is at 20 teams and the ACC and/or Big 12 cease to exist.

[DegenerateDish]

I agree with Mandel and (gasp) Clay Travis...this is the worst conference expansion idea yet.

Expand the playoff to 8 teams, no expansion needed, problem solved.

[Groin_pull]

Conference Realignment will never end. Not as long as there's more money to grab. Also, not convinced that UConn would get the ACC invite. They could be left in the cold...again

This.
As long there's an extra dollar to be made, these conferences will continue to spin. I'm sure in a couple of years, we'll see the Big 10 make a play (again) for Virginia, UNC and Georgia Tech. The Pac-12 will probably chase (again) Texas and perhaps Oklahoma. And of course, there's always the Notre Dame issue.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Big 12 made a big mistake when they didn't invite West Virginia, Louisville, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati as a group in 2011. They dragged their feet and only took WVU. If they snagged them, they would be higher in the pecking order than the ACC.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Someone on the UConn board copied a tweet from the study that listed the options from biggest impact to smallest for revenue growth.
1) UConn
2) BYU
3) Cincinnati
4) UCF
5) ECU (go figure?!)
6) etc.

Also saw that 14 for football increased Big 12 playoff chances by 25%, 12 only by 15%.  Big12 was considering 2 all sports additions and 2 football only. 

Also read a rumor ACC may be considering expansion to keep Big 12 out of NYC and off the east coast.

[Marcus92]

Also saw that 14 for football increased Big 12 playoff chances by 25%, 12 only by 15%.  Big12 was considering 2 all sports additions and 2 football only. 

I couldn't find the actual report. So I have no idea how they came up with those projections. Seems like it depends on which teams you add, not just how many.

In another article, an ESPN reporter suggested that expanding to 16 teams for the Power 5 conferences is going to happen — once TV grant-of-rights contracts end in 8 to 9 years. "At that point, everything gets shuffled around...that will be the final major move for realignment, even if the Big 12 does decide to go to 12 in the next year or two."

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865653580/Report-Expansion-would-increase-Big-12s-chances-of-a-College-Football-Playoff-bid-by-10-15-percent.html?pg=all

Round and round it goes, where it stops...

[Herman Cain]

The Big 12 completely f**ked itself over by letting Texas roll over them.  It started a landslide whereby four schools left the conference, and left them where they are right now.

I agree with this analysis.

[GB Warrior]

What about Mizzou and Nebraska? They're good football teams that are geographically aligned!

[MUMountin]

I couldn't find the actual report. So I have no idea how they came up with those projections. Seems like it depends on which teams you add, not just how many.

In another article, an ESPN reporter suggested that expanding to 16 teams for the Power 5 conferences is going to happen — once TV grant-of-rights contracts end in 8 to 9 years. "At that point, everything gets shuffled around...that will be the final major move for realignment, even if the Big 12 does decide to go to 12 in the next year or two."

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865653580/Report-Expansion-would-increase-Big-12s-chances-of-a-College-Football-Playoff-bid-by-10-15-percent.html?pg=all

Round and round it goes, where it stops...

Lot of chatter on Twitter about all the possibilities.  A few that claim to have sources inside B12 and B1G have been tweeting out blurbs about these reports.

Although it is all speculation, what seems to be gaining steam (and who knows how reliable any of it is):

1.  B12 is going to expand, and likely something happening this summer.  Reports coming back that they need more membership to remain competitive financially with the networks and on the field for making the playoffs. Who they grab is the question.

• They may just grab some G5 teams--between 2 and 4 would be my guess.
• They poach some ACC teams.  (See below)
• Some combo of the two, perhaps adding two G5 this year and then waiting for possible ACC implosion.

2. Rumors are that ACC teams are not happy with ESPN bc of failure to launch ACCN as promised in their last contract negotiations.  Several may be looking for greener pastures.  Speculation that the ACC GOR is voided by ESPN's failure to set up ACCN by sometime this year, and that some of the flagship institutions may be looking to bolt.

3. If 2 is true, the speculation is some group of teams including UNC, UVA, Duke, GT, possibly ND and/or FSU (I have trouble believing the last one) could all end up getting poached by B1G.  If that happens, look for B12 to try to grab Clemson, VT, etc. 

4.  Who knows what happens beyond that.  ACC remnants probably fold in with whatever remains from AAC at that point.  Lots of ways those dominoes all fall.

But, could all be wild speculation.  My guess is 1 happens in some form.  Beyond that, we'll see...

[bamamarquettefan]

In another article, an ESPN reporter suggested that expanding to 16 teams for the Power 5 conferences is going to happen — once TV grant-of-rights contracts end in 8 to 9 years. "At that point, everything gets shuffled around...that will be the final major move for realignment, even if the Big 12 does decide to go to 12 in the next year or two."

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865653580/Report-Expansion-would-increase-Big-12s-chances-of-a-College-Football-Playoff-bid-by-10-15-percent.html?pg=all

Round and round it goes, where it stops...

Could be - but let's see if the cord cutters getting off satellite and cable do escalate in those 8-9 years and if a new model still allows the silly money being paid out. By then private models have 1-3rd of universities going bankrupt, and if that is happening and sports money is finally retreating, we could be looking at a different model that does not make joining a conference out of your geographic area make sense.

[Groin_pull]

Could be - but let's see if the cord cutters getting off satellite and cable do escalate in those 8-9 years and if a new model still allows the silly money being paid out. By then private models have 1-3rd of universities going bankrupt, and if that is happening and sports money is finally retreating, we could be looking at a different model that does not make joining a conference out of your geographic area make sense.

I think that cord cutters number will continue to escalate. More and more are tired of paying for channels they never watch. Include me on that list. Even as a sports fan, I can't wait to eliminate ESPN. Have to believe all these insanely large sports TV contacts will begin shrinking. Couldn't happen to a nicer group.

[Dawson Rental]

Jim Delaney will not rest until the Big Ten is at 20 teams, the SEC is at 20 teams, the Pac 12 is at 20 teams and the ACC and/or Big 12 NCAA ceases to exist.

FIFY

[forgetful]

Lot of chatter on Twitter about all the possibilities.  A few that claim to have sources inside B12 and B1G have been tweeting out blurbs about these reports.

Although it is all speculation, what seems to be gaining steam (and who knows how reliable any of it is):

1.  B12 is going to expand, and likely something happening this summer.  Reports coming back that they need more membership to remain competitive financially with the networks and on the field for making the playoffs. Who they grab is the question.

• They may just grab some G5 teams--between 2 and 4 would be my guess.
• They poach some ACC teams.  (See below)
• Some combo of the two, perhaps adding two G5 this year and then waiting for possible ACC implosion.

2. Rumors are that ACC teams are not happy with ESPN bc of failure to launch ACCN as promised in their last contract negotiations.  Several may be looking for greener pastures.  Speculation that the ACC GOR is voided by ESPN's failure to set up ACCN by sometime this year, and that some of the flagship institutions may be looking to bolt.

3. If 2 is true, the speculation is some group of teams including UNC, UVA, Duke, GT, possibly ND and/or FSU (I have trouble believing the last one) could all end up getting poached by B1G.  If that happens, look for B12 to try to grab Clemson, VT, etc. 

4.  Who knows what happens beyond that.  ACC remnants probably fold in with whatever remains from AAC at that point.  Lots of ways those dominoes all fall.

But, could all be wild speculation.  My guess is 1 happens in some form.  Beyond that, we'll see...

Great stuff.  Thanks.  In regards to 2.  I haven't seen the contracts or GOR, but that sounds like a winnable case in terms of getting out of the GOR.  If the GOR is gone, I could definitely see 3 happening. 

I would assume, UNC, Duke, UVa and either ND or GT to the Big10.
I agree on Clemson, VT to Big12 and would add Louisville and Pitt.

SEC picks up Miami and Florida State.

Remaining teams pretty much screwed.  Could see BC/Wake dropping football if that all went down.

[Marcus92]

The last time the conference alignment landscape experienced a tectonic shift, the Big 12 nearly disintegrated — with speculation that basketball blue blood Kansas might get left without a home.

I always thought the ACC sat higher on the pecking order of college football powers than the Big 12. Do I have that wrong? Or is a better way of thinking about it something like:

Big 10/SEC > ACC > Big 12

That makes the ACC's best teams more attractive to the Big 10 and SEC — making the ACC more likely to be raided and left in shambles.

The idea of ACC schools leaving the conference over a broken promise from ESPN only adds to the confusion. Unlike the Big East, where the fault lines ran between the football and non-football schools, here it seems like the rift is between the haves and have-nots. Or something like that. I'm not sure I understand this part of the story at all.

College football is evil.

[Herman Cain]

The last time the conference alignment landscape experienced a tectonic shift, the Big 12 nearly disintegrated — with speculation that basketball blue blood Kansas might get left without a home.

I always thought the ACC sat higher on the pecking order of college football powers than the Big 12. Do I have that wrong? Or is a better way of thinking about it something like:

Big 10/SEC > ACC > Big 12

That makes the ACC's best teams more attractive to the Big 10 and SEC — making the ACC more likely to be raided and left in shambles.

The idea of ACC schools leaving the conference over a broken promise from ESPN only adds to the confusion. Unlike the Big East, where the fault lines ran between the football and non-football schools, here it seems like the rift is between the haves and have-nots. Or something like that. I'm not sure I understand this part of the story at all.

College football is evil.

Big 12 is and has always been higher on the pecking order of college football than the ACC. The inverse is true in basketball. 

[GoldenWarrior11]

The last time the conference alignment landscape experienced a tectonic shift, the Big 12 nearly disintegrated — with speculation that basketball blue blood Kansas might get left without a home.

I always thought the ACC sat higher on the pecking order of college football powers than the Big 12. Do I have that wrong? Or is a better way of thinking about it something like:

Big 10/SEC > ACC > Big 12

That makes the ACC's best teams more attractive to the Big 10 and SEC — making the ACC more likely to be raided and left in shambles.

The idea of ACC schools leaving the conference over a broken promise from ESPN only adds to the confusion. Unlike the Big East, where the fault lines ran between the football and non-football schools, here it seems like the rift is between the haves and have-nots. Or something like that. I'm not sure I understand this part of the story at all.

College football is evil.

Agreed.

While the ACC is higher up in the pecking order than the Big 12, the Big 12 has more prestigious and desired athletic programs.  Texas and Oklahoma are more valuable than a majority of the schools in the ACC.  Unfortunately, those two schools that are keeping the Big 12 together are also the two entities that are ripping it apart.  They want more money, exposure and, most importantly, want to remain competitive with the other big dogs in college football. 

Texas will always look out for Texas, first and foremost.  They could care less about the productivity and growth of the Big 12 - and there lies the ever-constant problem (not unlike Notre Dame/Big East scenario).  Schools like TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech need Texas to remain relevant and in a strong conference. 

Whether or not the Big 12 expands or not, the conference will still remain unstable and ripe for raiding or implosion.  It would be in the best interests for all parties for Texas to be independent in football (keeping the Longhorn Network), and for the other schools to be assimilated by the other power conferences.  That would create a Power-4 (with 4 spots for the CFP - each conference getting a guaranteed position).

[Marcus92]

Big 12 is and has always been higher on the pecking order of college football than the ACC. The inverse is true in basketball.

Somehow I never thought about it that way — at least from the football perspective. But now it seems obvious. Florida State, Clemson, UNC, Pitt and Miami are no match for Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor and Texas.

I understand that college football drives everything in the conference realignment game. Yet, as a college basketball fan who doesn't care about college football, it can still be difficult to see things from that perspective. It's like an alternate universe. Or Bizarro World.

All the more proof that Marquette and the rest of the C7 made the right choice.