Are there any scenarios that Henry would stay?

[cheebs09]

Chad Ford has HE going top 5.

Ford had a pick variance of 2.8 last year fwiw.

Before or after he alters his picks?

[WayOfTheWarrior]

Not sure the projected strength of the NBA draft class next year looks like, but I know this year is weak. I'm trying to think of 5 players who would be a lock to be ahead of Henry and I'm finding it difficult.

To me, only sentimentality would get him to stay, which I have no way of gauging.

[WarriorPride68]

Before or after he alters his picks?

I almost put that in parenthesis I knew I should have

[WarriorFan]

I will bet you $10,000 he is not a top 3 pick next year.

I'd enjoy the bet but we both know it's a moot point.

[brandx]

Not sure the projected strength of the NBA draft class next year looks like, but I know this year is weak. I'm trying to think of 5 players who would be a lock to be ahead of Henry and I'm finding it difficult.

To me, only sentimentality would get him to stay, which I have no way of gauging.

Freshman class next year is said to be considerably better. We'll see.

[brandx]

I've heard similar.  The question is (and I think he will be), is he a lottery pick?

The only reason I would say no is that the concern about him coming into the season by scouts were his poor shot selection and defense.  They were looking for improvement there, and in my opinion he made no improvement in either category.

Could his lack of improvement in those areas be a red flag to GMs?

That's why you pay attention to Chad Ford. He has more input from league sources, including team GMs, than any of the other mock drafts.

And I disagree with you points about improvement. I think he improved tremendously in both areas.

But we'll see what the NBA thinks in a couple months. No doubt about the 1st 2 picks in the draft. Then we'll see what happens. My prediction is from #4 - #7 depending on team need.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

To an extent. For the season, Henry took the second most threes on the team. But he hit the lowest percentage of anyone in the main rotation — less than 30%. Henry missed more threes than our best 3-point shooter (Haanif at 40%) took.

While some will argue that defense is Henry's biggest weakness, I think it's his 3-point shot selection. He should have taken half as many as he did, maybe even less. Hitting at such a poor percentage dramatically lowered his offensive efficiency — resulting in too many empty possessions and transition baskets the other way.

Henry's touch from inside and mid-range is incredible. That, together with his incredible rebounding, definitely outweighed his shortcomings. Nonetheless, Henry hurt the team from outside the line.

But he shot 38% from three in his last 13 games....so his three point shot selection dramatically improved.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Chad Ford has HE going top 5.

Ford had a pick variance of 2.8 last year fwiw.

Was that variance before or after he altered his mock drafts after the actual draft?

EDIT: Damn, someone else beat me to it.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Freshman class next year is said to be considerably better. We'll see.

Meh, I swear I hear that every year. Next year is always going to be a tougher draft.

[Marcus92]

But he shot 38% from three in his last 13 games....so his three point shot selection dramatically improved.

Great stat. Thanks for pointing that one out. The fact that didn't even raise his season average to 30% just reinforces how many bad shots he took early on.

[MUMountin]

I don't watch enough NBA to know this, so would appreciate insight from those that know more.

If he is a mid-lottery pick, what should the expectation be for him in his first year in the NBA?  I know it will vary depending on what team, need, etc., but would he expect to on the bench most of the time?  Spend significant time in the D-league?  Play spot minutes early, find a small role late?  Play significant minutes on a bad team?

In other words, what do most mid-lottery picks chosen more on potential end up doing in their first year in the NBA?

The reason I ask is that may be one other factor I haven't seen discussed much: what does the day-to-day look like for him next year in the NBA versus in college.  Where is it more enjoyable to work on improving my game?  Do I want to be riding the pine all season long?  Or, spend several months schlepping around the D-league?  My impression is the D-league is not a glamorous experience, even if you are on a big-time contract.

HE knows what the college experience is--which, all told, is probably not a bad gig for him.  He gets to be the star on the team, has a relatively cushy life, can work on aspects of his game without worrying about getting benched, etc.  The NBA experience may be less desirable or at least a bit more unknown for that next year as he works on development.  If he feels comfortable about getting drafted in future years, this may be one other reason to stick around for another year. 

On the flip side, going to the NBA or D-league means that he finally gets to do basketball 24-7, which for a gym rat may be a big draw.  Oh, and $$$.

[brandx]

Meh, I swear I hear that every year. Next year is always going to be a tougher draft.

Actually, this year was considered one of the weaker classes in recent years. I don't know that it will be considered that once these guys are in the league a few years. I think there could be half a dozen top flight NBA players in this class.

[brandx]

I don't watch enough NBA to know this, so would appreciate insight from those that know more.

If he is a mid-lottery pick, what should the expectation be for him in his first year in the NBA?  I know it will vary depending on what team, need, etc., but would he expect to on the bench most of the time?  Spend significant time in the D-league?  Play spot minutes early, find a small role late?  Play significant minutes on a bad team?

In other words, what do most mid-lottery picks chosen more on potential end up doing in their first year in the NBA?

The reason I ask is that may be one other factor I haven't seen discussed much: what does the day-to-day look like for him next year in the NBA versus in college.  Where is it more enjoyable to work on improving my game?  Do I want to be riding the pine all season long?  Or, spend several months schlepping around the D-league?  My impression is the D-league is not a glamorous experience, even if you are on a big-time contract.

It depends on several things: the team situation, how quickly a guy picks up the pro offense, and most obviously, how talented the guy is.

This year, the mid-lottery picks - #5-#10 - averaged over 23 minutes a game. So they are all part of the regular rotations on their teams.

One thing is certain, though - Henry will not be playing D-League next year.

The guys at the end of the lottery are averaging 19 minutes a game - brought down by Cameron Payne who was the last lottery pick who is not playing a lot.

[Jay Bee]

TWolves - 21 wins this year, a''inal? Lots of 'young talent'... many, many questions, including head coach, PG and 3-pt shooters.

Henry - have said it before.. if I'm Henry and I am enjoying my time at MU, I would shop insurance contracts. If I can find one that I'm agreeable to and gives me enough financial security, I purchase it and play spend one more year in college.

[WarriorPride68]

Was that variance before or after he altered his mock drafts after the actual draft?

EDIT: Damn, someone else beat me to it.

You were busy breaking down the entire NIT bubble 

[SuddenSam]

He committed to his parents that he would not leave until he had at least 300 quality rebounds -- but since Scoop deemed 60% of those easy he has to come back for his soph season

Yes but it was also determined that Woj needed to move on, so this has become a real toss up now

[MU82]

But he shot 38% from three in his last 13 games....so his three point shot selection dramatically improved.

Wow, is this a stupid post, TAMU.

Haven't you read the much more intelligent posts these last few months from those who say players don't improve year-to-year and certainly not during a season?

[GGGG]

To an extent. For the season, Henry took the second most threes on the team. But he hit the lowest percentage of anyone in the main rotation — less than 30%. Henry missed more threes than our best 3-point shooter (Haanif at 40%) took.

While some will argue that defense is Henry's biggest weakness, I think it's his 3-point shot selection. He should have taken half as many as he did, maybe even less. Hitting at such a poor percentage dramatically lowered his offensive efficiency — resulting in too many empty possessions and transition baskets the other way.

Henry's touch from inside and mid-range is incredible. That, together with his incredible rebounding, definitely outweighed his shortcomings. Nonetheless, Henry hurt the team from outside the line.

You just can't look at the 3s.  Henry did a much better job understanding spacing and how to get his shot off as the year went on.  As brew said, he was All-American caliber the last third of the season.