How far away were we? [to the NCAA tourney...]

[Jay Bee]

It's March 6 and we're hoping* for an NIT invite.  Were we really that far from being in the NCAA tourney discussion? I'd tell you no.[Note: RPI calcs are moving targets - this is as of 3pm on 3/6/16 and the figures will differ slightly after all games are played today.]

Our opponents' win-loss records hurt us a lot. As a reminder, our opponents' RPI is NOT a direct impact on our RPI. What hurts most are teams like Chicago St. (1-26 vs. non-MU D-I teams) and Grambling St. (4-22).

Jackson St. is a cupcake in my book. They are the #246 KenPom team with an atrocious offense and very little height. With 10 minutes left, MU led by 25 and eventually won by 19 in undramatic fashion.

Sub in Jackson St. (15-13) for Chicago St. and Grambling and MU gets a ~.0130 boost to the RPI of .5375 (#107 in the nation). You still get a couple of 'easy' games you should win, but without the crushing impact to your RPI.

Next, let's just say Marquette survived it's home opener vs. Belmont and one-point defeat to DePaul. MU's actual adjusted win-loss this season is 16.2-12.8, or .5586. Win the two games above and we're at 17.4-10.0, or .6350. Take .6350 less .5586, multiply it by .25 and you have an RPI impact of .0191.

Component 3 (opponents' opponents' unadjusted win-loss) would suffer slightly under the scenario, however just these changes would result in an RPI in or around the low-to-mid 60's heading into the BEast tournament, making our performance there very relevant to our NCAA tourney chances.

This is a 19-12 team with arguably only one bad loss. There were many challenging games on the schedule. The easy games were simply the easiest of easy.

Team sheet heading into today, for a visual perspective:

[MU82]

Thanks for this interesting study.

I'm trying to decide if this makes me feel better or if it makes me feel worse!

[tower912]

Marquette beats Belmont, DePaul, and Creighton at home and they are a 10 seed.   

[CountryRoads]

Marquette beats Belmont, DePaul, and Creighton at home and they are a 10 seed.   

It's been stated countless times here that the schedule left no margin for error. The team needed to win these games to have a chance. Unfortunately, they crapped the bed in all of them. Even 2 of the 3 would have given them a chance.

[tower912]

They lost close games.    They won a number of other close games.   It evens out and you can't expect any team to win every close game. 

[brandx]

They lost close games.    They won a number of other close games.   It evens out and you can't expect any team to win every close game.

This.

We were never really in the discussion for the Dance.

[jsglow]

They lost close games.    They won a number of other close games.   It evens out and you can't expect any team to win every close game.

Exactly.  We were actually very good in close games winning more than our share.  I'll choose to remember blocking the shot of an elite college PG (Dunn) and Luke's incredible drive and free throws.

[CountryRoads]

This.

We were never really in the discussion for the Dance.

Knowing what we know now about the schedule, I'd go as far to say this statement was true before the season even started. Incredibly poor job by those in charge.

[muguru]

Win your games at home, and this discussion is irrelevant. With the heavy weighted RPI calculations for a home loss, you simply cannot lose as many games at home as MU did, and expect to have a chance. It was only a few years ago this program would lose maybe 1-2 home games every couple years...now it's 4 or more in a single season.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Basically exactly what I've been saying for a few months minus all the calcs for RPI. But the point remains the same - this team is a bubble team w better  scheduling even w the Belmont and Depaul losses. Had those two one point games gone the other way, in addition to the changes to the schedule, and MU is comfortably in the field.

It's a damn shame.

[Dawson Rental]

Marquette beats Belmont, DePaul, and Creighton at home and they are a 10 seed.   

Except in that world, MU doesn't beat Providence either time or beat Butler at home.

[tower912]

Except in that world, MU doesn't beat Providence either time or beat Butler at home.

Fair enough.

[Dawson Rental]

Basically exactly what I've been saying for a few months minus all the calcs for RPI. But the point remains the same - this team is a bubble team w better  scheduling even w the Belmont and Depaul losses. Had those two one point games gone the other way, in addition to the changes to the schedule, and MU is comfortably in the field.

It's a damn shame.

Kid yourself all you want.  MU going to the dance this year would have been miraculous (very low probability).  I believe that MU actually overperformed nicely.  I'm happy with that.

[4everwarriors]

If Uncle Joe had a vagina, he'd be Aunt Josephine, ai na?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Basically exactly what I've been saying for a few months minus all the calcs for RPI. But the point remains the same - this team is a bubble team w better  scheduling even w the Belmont and Depaul losses. Had those two one point games gone the other way, in addition to the changes to the schedule, and MU is comfortably in the field.

It's a damn shame.

Here's the thing though. When I look at our team, I don't see a tournament team. Tournament teams don't lose at home to Depaul. Tournament teams don't go 0-6 against the top 3 teams in their conference. If Marquette was a tournament team, the scheduling wouldn't have mattered. They would have gotten in despite it. We can complain about the schedule, but the reality is, our team wasn't good enough this season to make the NCAAs. The scheduling doesn't change that fact.

[Babybluejeans]

They lost close games.    They won a number of other close games.   It evens out and you can't expect any team to win every close game.

This logic is based on a false premise. Just because MU won close games doesn't mean they were somehow "due" for a proportional number of close losses to even things out. The basketball universe does not operate like this. There is no inherent "balance."

In reality, teams can and do win a "disproportionate" number of close games all the time.  The ability to consistently win close games is precisely what puts certain teams in the tournament while leaving others at home. The fact that MU is in this latter group (because it failed to close out a few wins sitting on the table) can't be rationalized merely by pointing to the fact that they also won some close games.

[Lennys Tap]

This logic is based on a false premise. Just because MU won close games doesn't mean they were somehow "due" for a proportional number of close losses to even things out. The basketball universe does not operate like this. There is no inherent "balance."

In reality, teams can and do win a "disproportionate" number of close games all the time.  The ability to consistently win close games is precisely what puts certain teams in the tournament while leaving others at home. The fact that MU is in this latter group (because it failed to close out a few wins sitting on the table) can't be rationalized merely by pointing to the fact that they also won some close games.

Maybe truly elite teams win more than their fair share of close games. There is some logic to that. We were anything but elite. We were an average or slightly below average (8-10) power conference team in an average or slightly above average power conference. That type of middle of the road team should win 50% of their coin flips. We've done better than that. What does that mean? In assessing our season we need to accept the fact that we've been a little lucky and that the true measure of our team is probably slightly worse than our actual record. Wish it were not so but there it is.

[bilsu]

Marquette beats Belmont, DePaul, and Creighton at home and they are a 10 seed.   

I have played this game also. What would we be, if we won these games? I think we still would of needed to win the first game in the Big East tournamnet to get in. This is based on the impression of Creighton not being considered in when they were 9-7 in the Big East, because of their weak schedule.

[brandx]

Basically exactly what I've been saying for a few months minus all the calcs for RPI. But the point remains the same - this team is a bubble team w better  scheduling even w the Belmont and Depaul losses. Had those two one point games gone the other way, in addition to the changes to the schedule, and MU is comfortably in the field.

It's a damn shame.

You are assuming we would have won against better teams. Better scheduling would have meant more losses. This is not a tournament team.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Here's the thing though. When I look at our team, I don't see a tournament team. Tournament teams don't lose at home to Depaul. Tournament teams don't go 0-6 against the top 3 teams in their conference. If Marquette was a tournament team, the scheduling wouldn't have mattered. They would have gotten in despite it. We can complain about the schedule, but the reality is, our team wasn't good enough this season to make the NCAAs. The scheduling doesn't change that fact.

Perhaps.  I don't completely disagree.  But you have to fill the field, and I don't see a tournament team when I watch Texas Tech, or Oregon State, or USC either.

You are assuming we would have won against better teams. Better scheduling would have meant more losses. This is not a tournament team.

I don't see MU losing to the likes of Mercer, Wofford, East Carolina, Miami Ohio, Gardner Webb, St. Peters...I could on and on.  All teams between 180-210 in RPI.  Change those out with the dregs on our schedule, record is the same, RPI/SOS is in bubble territory.

But whatever, it is what it is.  I am done talking about it.  Just hoping next year's schedule doesn't give MU virtually zero room for error, which is exactly what this years schedule did. 

[MerrittsMustache]

Perhaps.  I don't completely disagree.  But you have to fill the field, and I don't see a tournament team when I watch Texas Tech, or Oregon State, or USC either.

I don't see MU losing to the likes of Mercer, Wofford, East Carolina, Miami Ohio, Gardner Webb, St. Peters...I could on and on.  All teams between 180-210 in RPI.  Change those out with the dregs on our schedule, record is the same, RPI/SOS is in bubble territory.

But whatever, it is what it is.  I am done talking about it.  Just hoping next year's schedule doesn't give MU virtually zero room for error, which is exactly what this years schedule did.

The DePaul and Creighton losses were killers. Those put MU under .500 in the conference. If MU is sitting at 21-10, 10-8 in conf, they're in bubble range. The fact that MU slipped in those games (and against Belmont and at Gtwon), confirms that this simply isn't a Tourney team.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The DePaul and Creighton losses were killers. Those put MU under .500 in the conference. If MU is sitting at 21-10, 10-8 in conf, they're in bubble range. The fact that MU slipped in those games (and against Belmont and at Gtwon), confirms that this simply isn't a Tourney team.

Yep.  That was the margin for error they didn't have. 

[MU82]

You are assuming we would have won against better teams. Better scheduling would have meant more losses.

Well, we'll never know. We might have won those games and not only would our RPI be better, but the superior non-con competition might have helped us prepare for the BE schedule better.

Or we might have fallen on our faces in a few of those, gotten demoralized and had an even worse season.

Or something in between.

It's fun (or funnish, anyway) to do all this speculatin', and you know I loves ya brand, but I have to laugh a little when folks treat their opinions as facts.

[Hubert Davis]

Wojo and crew crapped the bed in the games they needed to win. Belmont at HOME, Depaul at HOME, and Creighton at HOME.

Not good Wojo. Your seat is on fire.

Just win baby

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Not good Wojo. Your seat is on fire.

Did he eat too much real chili?

Guy just got an extension. His seat is ice cold

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

FWIW, Katz says Marquette can play their way in if they make it to the Big East title game and lose. I think that's an exceedingly optimistic scenario.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=14919495

That being said, if it came to pass, MU would be a 22-13 team with 6 wins against the RPI Top 50.

[Herman Cain]

Did he eat too much real chili?

Guy just got an extension. His seat is ice cold

I agree, the school administrators are in love with him. In fact I think the opposite may be the case, A power 5 conference with an opening may find Wojo very appealing especially if he gets that 20 win optic. Minnesota   

[BM1090]

FWIW, Katz says Marquette can play their way in if they make it to the Big East title game and lose. I think that's an exceedingly optimistic scenario.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=14919495

That being said, if it came to pass, MU would be a 22-13 team with 6 wins against the RPI Top 50.

I think Katz is way off base....and I"m an eternal optimist.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

FWIW, Katz says Marquette can play their way in if they make it to the Big East title game and lose. I think that's an exceedingly optimistic scenario.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=14919495

That being said, if it came to pass, MU would be a 22-13 team with 6 wins against the RPI Top 50.

LOL.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

FWIW, Katz says Marquette can play their way in if they make it to the Big East title game and lose. I think that's an exceedingly optimistic scenario.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=14919495

That being said, if it came to pass, MU would be a 22-13 team with 6 wins against the RPI Top 50.

Maybe Andy is Wojo's new Goodman.  Other than that maybe he is just crazy - I've always thought that anyway.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Maybe Andy is Wojo's new Goodman.  Other than that maybe he is just crazy - I've always thought that anyway.

From a 10,000 foot view, I get where he is coming from - our resume good win for good win / bad loss for bad loss is on par with the other teams on the ubble. But the numbers just aren't going to be there for MU, even in this scenario.  If we're going to get the championship, lets just win the damn thing.

[brewcity77]

First of all, the schedule left us with zero margin for error. Tower points out had we beat Belmont, Creighton, and DePaul at home we'd be in. That's probably true, but those are the ONLY three games we lost that were decided by two possessions or less all season.

Marquette went 7-3 in one possession games and 11-3 in two possession games. Because of the weak schedule and subsequently weak RPI and SOS numbers, we couldn't afford to lose any of the games that were decided in the final minute.

Next...to address TAMU's comments about not looking like a tournament team...
.

• Pittsburgh lost at home to RPI 121 NC State and went 0-4 against the top four teams (UNC, Virginia, Miami, Louisville) in their conference.
• Butler lost at home to RPI 108 Marquette and went 0-4 against the top two teams ('Nova, Xavier) in their conference.
• Syracuse lost at home to RPI 117 Clemson and went 0-5 against the top four teams (UNC, Virginia, Miami, Louisville) in their conference.
• Florida lost to RPI 148 Tennessee (albeit on the road) and went 1-7 against the top five teams (Kentucky, A&M, South Carolina, Vandy, LSU) in their conference. The one win was against a LSU team projected out of the field.
• Ohio State lost to RPI 101 UT-Arlington at home and went 0-6 against the top four teams (Indiana, MSU, Purdue, Maryland) in their league.

.
All of those teams are currently on Lunardi's bubble. Some will get in, some won't. But I don't think we're that much worse than any of them.

For me, the good news is that while we're not close to the NCAA Tourney (I don't think a BET Final would get it done and don't think we make it there anyway) I do think we have a real shot at playing in the NIT or at worst, Las Vegas. Either would be an improvement on the past two years. I'm fine with deferring our return to the NCAAs another year. I think we'll look much better with some of these kids getting another offseason to grow up. Even if Hank leaves.

[Hubert Davis]

Did he eat too much real chili?

Guy just got an extension. His seat is ice cold

Which goes to show that our administration/ athletic department is a joke. They rewarded Wojo with an extension for accomplishing what?? .... going 11-2 vs a bunch of cupcakes. Pathetic PR move by the athletic department.

[barfolomew]

Which goes to show that our administration/ athletic department is a joke. They rewarded Wojo with an extension for accomplishing what?? .... going 11-2 vs a bunch of cupcakes. Pathetic PR move by the athletic department.

Al, I don't want get too personal with you, but... maybe in your afterlife, you should spend less time on Scoop and more time on your son...

[Coleman]

This entire season is an indictment of whoever does MU's scheduling. Awful, awful work.

[dgies9156]

The DePaul and Creighton losses were killers. Those put MU under .500 in the conference. If MU is sitting at 21-10, 10-8 in conf, they're in bubble range. The fact that MU slipped in those games (and against Belmont and at Gtwon), confirms that this simply isn't a Tourney team.

The games that cost us whatever shot we had at the NCAAs were:

 1) Belmont -- Overrated team, should have been a victory. We knew back in November this was not a good loss but thought, OK, we had a whole season to recover.
 2) Iowa -- This was so ugly and it was on national television. One of those  moments way-back-when that even if we had been close, someone on the selection committee inevitably would have brought this woofer up.
 3) Georgetown/Away -- We were on the road playing a team we should have beaten. We didn't. This one hurt a lot more than we thought it would last January.
 4) DePaul/Home -- This was the low point of the season. No way, no how we should have lost this one. This was a killer, period. Ditto for Creighton/Home.
 5) Butler/Away -- A bookend to Iowa. Even if we had done everything well, this game was so bad that we had no chance, even if we had defeated DePaul and Creighton.

It didn't help us that we didn't beat any of Seton Hall, Villanova or Xavier in the six games we played these three teams.

Honestly, we never had a chance this year. Think of a team as a boat on the ocean. You're either headed toward the goal and the harbor or you're drifting away. We  didn't have a concept of where we were going or didn't know what it took to overcome the tides, the rocks and anything else in the way. I think more than anything else, we just drifted away.

Hopefully, Wojo will toughen this team next year.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The games that cost us whatever shot we had at the NCAAs were:

 1) Belmont -- Overrated team, should have been a victory. We knew back in November this was not a good loss but thought, OK, we had a whole season to recover.
 2) Iowa -- This was so ugly and it was on national television. One of those  moments way-back-when that even if we had been close, someone on the selection committee inevitably would have brought this woofer up.
 3) Georgetown/Away -- We were on the road playing a team we should have beaten. We didn't. This one hurt a lot more than we thought it would last January.
 4) DePaul/Home -- This was the low point of the season. No way, no how we should have lost this one. This was a killer, period. Ditto for Creighton/Home.
 5) Butler/Away -- A bookend to Iowa. Even if we had done everything well, this game was so bad that we had no chance, even if we had defeated DePaul and Creighton.

It didn't help us that we didn't beat any of Seton Hall, Villanova or Xavier in the six games we played these three teams.

Honestly, we never had a chance this year. Think of a team as a boat on the ocean. You're either headed toward the goal and the harbor or you're drifting away. We  didn't have a concept of where we were going or didn't know what it took to overcome the tides, the rocks and anything else in the way. I think more than anything else, we just drifted away.

Hopefully, Wojo will toughen this team next year.

Almost all of MUs games are on national television.

[Dawson Rental]

I agree, the school administrators are in love with him. In fact I think the opposite may be the case, A power 5 conference with an opening may find Wojo very appealing especially if he gets that 20 win optic. Minnesota   

Wojo has a history of turning down programs like Minny.

[bilsu]

The schedule did not give us much of a chance. However, losing to Belmont and beating the next bunny in overtime probably showed the schedule was appropriate. The team did have some high points this season, but they never were an NCAA tournament team.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The schedule did not give us much of a chance. However, losing to Belmont and beating the next bunny in overtime probably showed the schedule was appropriate. The team did have some high points this season, but they never were an NCAA tournament team.

The first two games are not a good indication of a team that got what, 75% of their scoring from underclassmen?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Next...to address TAMU's comments about not looking like a tournament team...
.

• Pittsburgh lost at home to RPI 121 NC State and went 0-4 against the top four teams (UNC, Virginia, Miami, Louisville) in their conference.
• Butler lost at home to RPI 108 Marquette and went 0-4 against the top two teams ('Nova, Xavier) in their conference.
• Syracuse lost at home to RPI 117 Clemson and went 0-5 against the top four teams (UNC, Virginia, Miami, Louisville) in their conference.
• Florida lost to RPI 148 Tennessee (albeit on the road) and went 1-7 against the top five teams (Kentucky, A&M, South Carolina, Vandy, LSU) in their conference. The one win was against a LSU team projected out of the field.
• Ohio State lost to RPI 101 UT-Arlington at home and went 0-6 against the top four teams (Indiana, MSU, Purdue, Maryland) in their league.

.
All of those teams are currently on Lunardi's bubble. Some will get in, some won't. But I don't think we're that much worse than any of them.

Brew, I appreciate it but none of those bad losses are as bad as a home loss to Depaul. And besides Ohio State, none of those match the 0-6 mark. You know me, I'm an optimist. I bleed blue and gold. But when I look at this team, I don't see anything that tells me its a tournament team. I've seen plenty of flashes but they are nowhere near consistent enough.

The schedule was bad and you're right, it definitely left us no margin for error. But just like those who say the team is great, Wojo just sucks, I think its a way to ignore the true issue. Our team wasn't good enough this season. Its easy to blame bad coaching or bad scheduling. But the real reason we aren't dancing is because we have a young team with lots of potential but too many flaws to make the tournament this season.

[Herman Cain]

Wojo has a history of turning down programs like Minny.

Oklahoma State?Boone still has some money.

[brewcity77]

Brew, I appreciate it but none of those bad losses are as bad as a home loss to Depaul. And besides Ohio State, none of those match the 0-6 mark. You know me, I'm an optimist. I bleed blue and gold. But when I look at this team, I don't see anything that tells me its a tournament team. I've seen plenty of flashes but they are nowhere near consistent enough.

The schedule was bad and you're right, it definitely left us no margin for error. But just like those who say the team is great, Wojo just sucks, I think its a way to ignore the true issue. Our team wasn't good enough this season. Its easy to blame bad coaching or bad scheduling. But the real reason we aren't dancing is because we have a young team with lots of potential but too many flaws to make the tournament this season.

I'd say Pitt, Syracuse, and Florida are pretty darn close, considering they all play unbalanced schedules. If you take out LSU, UF was 0-6 against the top three in the SEC (since LSU won't be dancing).

All I'm saying is our resume isn't that different from teams currently in the discussion.

[real chili 83]

FWIW, Katz says Marquette can play their way in if they make it to the Big East title game and lose. I think that's an exceedingly optimistic scenario.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=14919495

That being said, if it came to pass, MU would be a 22-13 team with 6 wins against the RPI Top 50.

Wooohoooo, we got this.

[MerrittsMustache]

The games that cost us whatever shot we had at the NCAAs were:

 1) Belmont -- Overrated team, should have been a victory. We knew back in November this was not a good loss but thought, OK, we had a whole season to recover.
 2) Iowa -- This was so ugly and it was on national television. One of those  moments way-back-when that even if we had been close, someone on the selection committee inevitably would have brought this woofer up.
 3) Georgetown/Away -- We were on the road playing a team we should have beaten. We didn't. This one hurt a lot more than we thought it would last January.
 4) DePaul/Home -- This was the low point of the season. No way, no how we should have lost this one. This was a killer, period. Ditto for Creighton/Home.
 5) Butler/Away -- A bookend to Iowa. Even if we had done everything well, this game was so bad that we had no chance, even if we had defeated DePaul and Creighton.

It didn't help us that we didn't beat any of Seton Hall, Villanova or Xavier in the six games we played these three teams.

Honestly, we never had a chance this year. Think of a team as a boat on the ocean. You're either headed toward the goal and the harbor or you're drifting away. We  didn't have a concept of where we were going or didn't know what it took to overcome the tides, the rocks and anything else in the way. I think more than anything else, we just drifted away.

Hopefully, Wojo will toughen this team next year.

Respectfully disagree with a couple of these.

The Iowa game had no bearing on MU's NCAAT chances. Iowa has been a top 20 team for 10 weeks and peaked at #3. No harm in losing that one, regardless of the score, especially in November.

If MU had beaten Belmont, DePaul and Gtown/Creighton, then the Butler game would have been big. Since they didn't, it was inconsequential.