#7 seed Bracketology (2/25)

[WarriorPride68]

The NIT Bracketology site updated after the Creighton win & before the Villanova loss. Had MU as a 7 seed (out of 8) & on the fringe of being knocked out thanks to the Auto bids.

http://www.nycbuckets.com/2016/02/nit-bracketology-feb-25-2016/

(Sorry if this has been posted and discussed)

[GooooMarquette]

While I wish we weren't in the lower reaches of the NIT discussion, imagine if we were Georgetown - picked second in the BE preseason poll, and now possibly even on the outside of the NIT.  Or Butler - picked third, and now on the NCAA/NIT fringe.  http://www.bigeast.com/news/2015/10/13/MBB_1013152011.aspx

I know - no moral victories.  But it could be a lot worse.

[mu_hilltopper]

That belongs on a t-shirt!

None of this "WIN EVERY DAY" stuff.

.. "IT COULD BE WORSE."

[WarriorPride68]

Last year 12 automatic bids made the NIT (out of 32). Eliminating 6-8 seeds from at large contention.

-- Is there an RPI range for the NIT we should be looking at? Currently 110

[keefe]

Frankly, I am not interested in the NIT. Whether we get invited or not is immaterial.

[fjm]

Frankly, I am not interested in the NIT. Whether we get invited or not is immaterial.

It's ok to not be interested, no one is going to make you watch. But I Disagree with the second half. This young team needs the extra games and the valuable experience of playing in a tourney.

[tower912]

This season has always been about building for 16-17.  Any extra games in a tournament environment are helpful.

[Nukem2]

Last year 12 automatic bids made the NIT (out of 32). Eliminating 6-8 seeds from at large contention.

-- Is there an RPI range for the NIT we should be looking at? Currently 110

With the auto bids in place, the RPI cutoff has been about 90 the past 2 years.

[jsglow]

Last year's final 2 at large:

102  Arizona St.  17-15
104  Vanderbilt    19-13

[ChicosBailBonds]

While I wish we weren't in the lower reaches of the NIT discussion, imagine if we were Georgetown - picked second in the BE preseason poll, and now possibly even on the outside of the NIT.  Or Butler - picked third, and now on the NCAA/NIT fringe.  http://www.bigeast.com/news/2015/10/13/MBB_1013152011.aspx

I know - no moral victories.  But it could be a lot worse.

This is why preseason polls and predictions are a joke.

[Nukem2]

Last year's final 2 at large:

102  Arizona St.  17-15
104  Vanderbilt    19-13

In Buzz's last year MU had an RPI of 97 and was not invited. 

[NorthernDancerColt]

Last year's final 2 at large:

102  Arizona St.  17-15
104  Vanderbilt    19-13

It doesn't sound right to use "at-large" in conjunction with the NIT.

[bilsu]

This indicates that you have to have a winning record to make the NIT. At one point I thought the NIT would take teams with losing records. Maybe that changed when they decided to take the conference champions that do not get NCAA torunament bids.

[bilsu]

It doesn't sound right to use "at-large" in conjunction with the NIT.

At-large means ytou did not get an automatic bid. conference champions who do not get NCAA bids get automatic bids to NIT.

[forgetful]

I don't understand the lack of respect for the Big East this year.

We as a league have the 2nd best record, 31-19 against other power conferences.  The only league beating that is the Big 12.

In the big 12, our record would be an NCAA guarantee, but we are stuck hoping on the NIT.

[martyconlonontherun]

Normally I'm not a fan of the NIT but it would be good to get the extra games for the young guys and we would get a few extra games of ellenson in a MU jersey.

[Jay Bee]

This indicates that you have to have a winning record to make the NIT. At one point I thought the NIT would take teams with losing records. Maybe that changed when they decided to take the conference champions that do not get NCAA torunament bids.

I believe that for the past decade teams with a losing record have been eligible to be selected; however, none have been selected.

[bilsu]

That makes sense. Thanks

[jsglow]

In Buzz's last year MU had an RPI of 97 and was not invited.

Didn't deserve it.  17-15 having lost 4 straight down the stretch.  I looked back.  After a February 27th win against GTown we were 17-11.  A serious push could have taken that group dancing.  Guess old Buzz had other things on his mind by then.  Buh bye.

[jsglow]

I just ran the wizard.  With the following:

GTown win
Butler   loss
DePaul win
Nova    loss

20-13 RPI 107.  Pretty tough.  Hope for very few single dancer conference upsets.

[Coleman]

I don't understand the lack of respect for the Big East this year.

We as a league have the 2nd best record, 31-19 against other power conferences.  The only league beating that is the Big 12.

In the big 12, our record would be an NCAA guarantee, but we are stuck hoping on the NIT.

That is indicative of a lack of respect for our non-conference SOS, which is deserved. Our historically awful scheduling cost us a bid, not a lack of respect for the Big East. If you want to point fingers, point them at MU.

[Coleman]

I just ran the wizard.  With the following:

GTown win
Butler   loss
DePaul win
Nova    loss

20-13 RPI 107.  Pretty tough.  Hope for very few single dancer conference upsets.

What about a win over Butler? 21-12.

[jsglow]

What about a win over Butler? 21-12.

Certainly possible.  And then maybe out of the Wednesday game in NYC towards a winnable second round against a comparable opponent prior to a Big 3 matchup.

[MU TommyDieHard]

What are we building towards for next year if Ellenson leaves?

[CTWarrior]

This indicates that you have to have a winning record to make the NIT. At one point I thought the NIT would take teams with losing records. Maybe that changed when they decided to take the conference champions that do not get NCAA torunament bids.

The NIT said they would take teams with losing records at the same time they announced that they would take conference champs that didn't qualify for the NCAAs.  That was because it was theoretically possible for a team with a losing overall record to be the regular season champ of a terrible conference.  Lehigh came close to that this year, for example.  I don't think they ever planned on taking "at-large" teams with losing records.

[tower912]

What are we building towards for next year if Ellenson leaves?

When Ellenson leaves.    Depends on who Wojo lands with the open scholarships.   A graduate transfer 4 combined with a freshman 4, combined with everything coming back (assuming everyone comes back, never a safe assumption these days) and I would confidently predict a tournament berth.    If JJ and Cheatham continue to improve, and Duane makes the next step, with all of those other things, a second weekend berth. 

[Herman Cain]

I don't understand the lack of respect for the Big East this year.

We as a league have the 2nd best record, 31-19 against other power conferences.  The only league beating that is the Big 12.

In the big 12, our record would be an NCAA guarantee, but we are stuck hoping on the NIT.

The Big East is highly respected this year. We have had two teams in the top 5.

Marquette's situation is a self inflicted wound and by a very poorly designed non conference schedule. While it is important to schedule Cream Puffs, our staff did a lousy job getting the proper cream puffs.

Our team has actually performed well enough as you rightly point out.

 For the life of me I do not understand why we are not scheduling bottom tier Horizon League, Missouri Valley and MAC teams so what if it costs a few more bucks. We are already spending more than most schools.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The Big East is highly respected this year. We have had two teams in the top 5.

Marquette's situation is a self inflicted wound and by a very poorly designed non conference schedule. While it is important to schedule Cream Puffs, our staff did a lousy job getting the proper cream puffs.

Our team has actually performed well enough as you rightly point out.

 For the life of me I do not understand why we are not scheduling bottom tier Horizon League, Missouri Valley and MAC teams so what if it costs a few more bucks. We are already spending more than most schools.

Hoping that changes starting next year.  Zero reason to ever schedule a SWAC team. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The Big East is highly respected this year. We have had two teams in the top 5.

Marquette's situation is a self inflicted wound and by a very poorly designed non conference schedule. While it is important to schedule Cream Puffs, our staff did a lousy job getting the proper cream puffs.

Our team has actually performed well enough as you rightly point out.

 For the life of me I do not understand why we are not scheduling bottom tier Horizon League, Missouri Valley and MAC teams so what if it costs a few more bucks. We are already spending more than most schools.

We weren't the only big east school getting punished for poor non con scheduling. Georgetown and Creighton are much better than their rpis suggest. Creighton, like us, scheduled too softly. Georgetown bit off more than they can chew. Seton Hall also had a soft non conference but has made up for it in conference play. All that poor non conference scheduling drags down the whole conference, which is why butler and hall are just becoming locks for the tournament.

[jsglow]

Hoping that changes starting next year.  Zero reason to ever schedule a SWAC team.

Well, certainly not too many.  We've had a long relationship with the SWAC.  But 1 a year would be fine.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Hoping that changes starting next year.  Zero reason to ever schedule a SWAC team.

Every team has a few dogs on the schedule. We just had seven of them

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Every team has a few dogs on the schedule. We just had seven of them

I will repeat. Never a reason to schedule a SWAC team. 

I understand that you're going to have some crapty buy games, and I realize we had too many of them. Pretty common knowledge around here at this juncture.   

[BM1090]

I will repeat. Never a reason to schedule a SWAC team. 

I understand that you're going to have some crapty buy games, and I realize we had too many of them. Pretty common knowledge around here at this juncture.

I don't necessarily agree with never schedule a SWAC team. If that SWAC team is Jackson State, Texas Southern, or Southern I'm okay with it. The others we should always avoid.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I don't necessarily agree with never schedule a SWAC team. If that SWAC team is Jackson State, Texas Southern, or Southern I'm okay with it. The others we should always avoid.

I dont care to look, but grouping Jackson state in there with Texas Southern and Southern is aggressive.  I know they're actually one of our better buy games this year, but guessing they've traditionally been in the bottom 50. 

I am being a bit flippant, but the point is, MU needs to focus on scheduling lower tier teams from actual mid majors for their buy games rather than bad teams from low majors.  Time to use the RPI to your advantage, not visa versa.

[BM1090]

I dont care to look, but grouping Jackson state in there with Texas Southern and Southern is aggressive.  I know they're actually one of our better buy games this year, but guessing they've traditionally been in the bottom 50. 

I am being a bit flippant, but the point is, MU needs to focus on scheduling lower tier teams from actual mid majors for their buy games rather than bad teams from low majors.  Time to use the RPI to your advantage, not visa versa.

You're right. Prior to this year their best RPI over the last 3 years was 297. So I revise my statement to exclude them.

[brandx]

The Big East is highly respected this year. We have had two teams in the top 5.

Marquette's situation is a self inflicted wound and by a very poorly designed non conference schedule. While it is important to schedule Cream Puffs, our staff did a lousy job getting the proper cream puffs.

Our team has actually performed well enough as you rightly point out.

Well enough for what?

[Herman Cain]

We weren't the only big east school getting punished for poor non con scheduling. Georgetown and Creighton are much better than their rpis suggest. Creighton, like us, scheduled too softly. Georgetown bit off more than they can chew. Seton Hall also had a soft non conference but has made up for it in conference play. All that poor non conference scheduling drags down the whole conference, which is why butler and hall are just becoming locks for the tournament.

This is a very good point. What we schedule and what the other guys schedule has a cumulative effect through out the league. The league did such a good job against the tough opponents, no reason to offset that with weak cream puffs.



Big East brass needs to make the point to the league schools to work on better cream puffs. Facilitate with other league top brass to make these things happen.

Georgetown bit off more than it could chew, but at least got a few good wins, but then hurt everyone with their Radford and UNC Ashville losses.

[Dawson Rental]

Frankly, I am not interested in the NIT. Whether we get invited or not is immaterial.

But, we need NIT invites just in case the NCAA tries to move us out of our region again!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I will repeat. Never a reason to schedule a SWAC team.

I heard you. I'm disagreeing. There is a reason to schedule a swac team. Every team has a few sub 300 teams on their resume. Scheduling a swac team for that game is fine.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I heard you. I'm disagreeing. There is a reason to schedule a swac team. Every team has a few sub 300 teams on their resume. Scheduling a swac team for that game is fine.

Agree to disagree.  You could schedule what you think will be a decent team a year in advance that ends up being a sub 300 team the following year for whatever reason. Looking briefly at the RPI, a team like Drake (315), Northern Colorado (312) Lafayette (327), Southern Miss (310) probably weren't expect to be bottom 50 RPI teams this year and would fit that bill. 

Scheduling any SWAC team outside of Texas Southern has a good chance to be a sub 300 team.  No upside to playing a team like that for your computer numbers.  3 of the bottom 12 teams in the RPI are SWAC, and 5 of the bottom 50.  And thats in a year where the SWAC actually won some non-con games.

Ok, enough talking about the SWAC. Moving on..

[jsglow]

I'd like to know when the last time MU didn't schedule any sub 300s?  Just not too many.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'd like to know when the last time MU didn't schedule any sub 300s?  Just not too many.

That's my point. You're always going to have a stinker or two, even ones unexpectedly.  Why schedule someone that is a near certainly to be 300+. Answer: you shouldn't.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That's my point. You're always going to have a stinker or two, even ones unexpectedly.  Why schedule someone that is a near certainly to be 300+. Answer: you shouldn't.

Because they're cheap. Teams like drake and southern miss carry bigger price tags because of their conference affiliation. Schedule a swac team, save the money, use it on another better opponent. One or two swac teams are fine as long as you schedule other quality opponents

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Because they're cheap. Teams like drake and southern miss carry bigger price tags because of their conference affiliation. Schedule a swac team, save the money, use it on another better opponent. One or two swac teams are fine as long as you schedule other quality opponents

Continue to disagree. Spend more money - that's never been a problem for MU hoops.

[auburnmarquette]

It's ok to not be interested, no one is going to make you watch. But I Disagree with the second half. This young team needs the extra games and the valuable experience of playing in a tourney.

I agree, I had us projected as NIT before the year and would consider missing the NIT a disappointment. I understand not wanting it after three straight Sweet 16s, but after not being invited to anything for two years I want to compete and want this team to continue to win tough games away from home. We are a better road team than home team - and Wisconsin, Arizona State, LSU and Providence are nice wins that might give the team a chance to win a couple on the road and go back to Madison Square Garden to possibly win a title. Freshman who get the taste of an NIT Final Four run would go into next year highly ranked - even assuming Henry leaves.

[bilsu]

I do not think you should ever schedule a team you expect to be 300+. However, that does not mean you do not end up with one on the schedule because teams can underperform expectations or a player leaves or gets injured.

[warriorstrack]

Because they're cheap. Teams like drake and southern miss carry bigger price tags because of their conference affiliation. Schedule a swac team, save the money, use it on another better opponent. One or two swac teams are fine as long as you schedule other quality opponents

No thanks, MU can do better

[Skitch]

I'd like to know when the last time MU didn't schedule any sub 300s?  Just not too many.

Probably whenever was the last year there were less than 300 D1 teams.