Villanova Thoughts

[bilsu]

Speaking of fouls, I'm not sure which is worse--Fischer picking up ticky-tack fouls or HE refusing to play physical defense. 

I think Henry knows when he is beat and does not compond it with a stupid foul. Fischer gets a lot of stupid fouls.

[dgies9156]

There are many college players who actually are better pros for those reasons.

I believe Glenn Rivers fell into this category. The zone defenses played in college at the time stifled him. My recollection was that it was thought he would perform more effectively as a pro than as a collegian because pros did not play zone defenses at the time.

[MU82]

I believe Glenn Rivers fell into this category. The zone defenses played in college at the time stifled him. My recollection was that it was thought he would perform more effectively as a pro than as a collegian because pros did not play zone defenses at the time.

At the time, I thought it was Hank who stifled him!

[Marcus92]

4.  Great home environment but this team struggles at home. Odd.

We're just 11-7 at home this season, including 3-5 in Big East play — versus 4-4 on the road versus conference opponents.

That's baffling. I recently heard about a study on home court (and home field) advantage. The basic conclusion was that it's not due to teams playing better on their own court. It's about referee bias. Over the course of a game, the influence of the crowd leads refs to make a couple more calls in favor of the home team versus the visitors.

http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/scorecasting-is-home-field-advantage.html

Not sure if that's relevant at all. But our struggles at home have mystified me all year. I'd love to know the explanation — or simply have one that sounds plausible.

[Jay Bee]

We're just 11-7 at home this season, including 3-5 in Big East play — versus 4-4 on the road versus conference opponents.

That's baffling.

Not sure if that's relevant at all. But our struggles at home have mystified me all year. I'd love to know the explanation — or simply have one that sounds plausible.

Home losses in conference: Nova, X, Seton Hall... top teams in the conference. Nothing baffling there. All three swept us, home and away. Creighton loss... the DePaul loss was awful.

Road wins in conf: DePaul, St. John's.. nothing baffling there. We swept St.J's. Creighton, Providence.

We're not that good. In general, beating bottom-half teams, losing to top teams.

[ChuckyChip]

 .

[bilsu]

Not sure if that's relevant at all. But our struggles at home have mystified me all year. I'd love to know the explanation — or simply have one that sounds plausible.

It must be the fans in the seats.

[Marcus92]

Home losses in conference: Nova, X, Seton Hall... top teams in the conference. Nothing baffling there. All three swept us, home and away. Creighton loss... the DePaul loss was awful.

We're not that good. In general, beating bottom-half teams, losing to top teams.

Fair point. Guess I generally expect us to have a better record at home.

I also expected us to come away with at least 1 win against Nova, Xavier or Seton Hall. Even with a 20% win probability in each matchup, odds are pretty good you steal one of those 6 games. Nova lost to Providence at home. Xavier lost to Georgetown at home and Creighton on the road. Seton Hall lost to Creighton and Butler at home.

In other words, Butler, Creighton, Georgetown and Providence — the 4 other teams bunched up with MU in the middle of the conference standings — all got at least one win against Nova, Xavier or Seton Hall. We didn't.

Winning at DePaul and Creighton while losing to them at home is still pretty baffling to me — but perhaps simply the mark of a young, inexperienced and inconsistent team. And for whatever reason, we had Providence's number this year.

[Marcus92]

Maybe the most encouraging thing is that we're soooooo close to being a pretty good team.

Even if we lose Henry's services next season, we have a lot of experience and talent coming back. Just cutting down on turnovers (1 or 2 a game) and hitting more from outside (we're 8th in the conference in made 3s) will make a huge difference on both ends (more efficient offense, fewer easy transition baskets by opponents).

If we can get 1 or 2 wins against the top 3, and avoid the home losses to teams like Belmont, DePaul and Creighton, I could definitely see us winning at least 23 games and going 11-7 or better in conference.

Granted, that's a million hypotheticals. And this season isn't even over. But the glass sure looks half full to me.

[Henry Sugar]

My two cents on Cohen

Last year: ORtg of 93 / Usage of 15.6%
This year: ORtg of 106 / Usage of 13.5%

From his freshman year to his sophomore year, he's gone from being a below average role player to a slightly above average role player.

Conference play:
Last year: ORtg of 83
This year: ORtg of 89

In conference play, he's still a below average contributor. However, lots of guys struggle more in conference play. When I look at the details, he has had more above average games this year (6/15) than last year (4/18). And last year, if you believe it, his ORtg average over his last ten games was an abysmal 40.

At MU, Cohen will almost certainly never be more than a role player.  That's fine... teams need role players. Will he be a "quality" role player, with an ORtg over 100, his junior and senior years? It's unclear, but at least he is improving over last year.

[jesmu84]

We're just 11-7 at home this season, including 3-5 in Big East play — versus 4-4 on the road versus conference opponents.

That's baffling. I recently heard about a study on home court (and home field) advantage. The basic conclusion was that it's not due to teams playing better on their own court. It's about referee bias. Over the course of a game, the influence of the crowd leads refs to make a couple more calls in favor of the home team versus the visitors.

http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/scorecasting-is-home-field-advantage.html

Not sure if that's relevant at all. But our struggles at home have mystified me all year. I'd love to know the explanation — or simply have one that sounds plausible.

I continue to be the ringleader of the group who believes, based on your definition of "home court advantage", we have none.

I don't have any explanation for it. I once believed it was because Wojo was a young coach (gotta "earn" your ref allegiances) and we had young players (who didn't know how to "work" the refs in-game). Now? I have no idea. I've dismissed the two previous reasons as there are young coaches and young players on teams that do indeed appear to have a home court advantage.

Baffling.

[tower912]

Ohio State has a team younger than MU's.   Yesterday, against Iowa, their arena was absolutely rocking from start to finish.   Other games I have watched, the arena is packed and rocking.  (OK, subdued against Sparty, but Sparty won by a ton).    I know how much larger tOSU's student body and alumni base are.   I recognize that Columbus is a 1.5 sport town.   (Buckeyes... and then, ten spots later, the Blue Jackets)     I understand every reason and argument about why MU isn't drawing as well this year.   But they are excuses.   People living in the area and not going to games while not accepting youth as a reason for the lack of team success?   Yeah, you guys.   Go to the freaking games.   Even if it is Stetson on a week night.    Do it for those of us who live 5 hours away and would kill to be able to make more games.   Do it so that in a couple of years, when this team is really good, you can smugly say 'I was there at the beginning'.

[CTWarrior]

I was very impressed with Carter in the second half.  He was blowing past Nova's guards at will the last 10 minutes.  I think he and Cheatham are going to be a good to great backcourt for the duration of their time at MU.

After the game, my basic thought was, "Well, we played well and we keep getting better.  Just got beat by a much better team." 

Luke was no match for Ochefu, man against a boy.  I agree with those that say if HE leaves as expected, we will most likely be something like a bubble team at best unless Wojo finds a PF ready to play in the Big East.

[Henry Sugar]

That's baffling. I recently heard about a study on home court (and home field) advantage. The basic conclusion was that it's not due to teams playing better on their own court. It's about referee bias. Over the course of a game, the influence of the crowd leads refs to make a couple more calls in favor of the home team versus the visitors.

http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2011/01/scorecasting-is-home-field-advantage.html

"Scorecasting" is a really good book. I enjoyed it a lot.