open scholarships

[wadesworld]

I'm not a Brewers fan, but I am an avid follower of baseball. This is totally off topic, but...the Brewers were in a real bad spot. They didn't really have a choice but to do what they did / are doing. You certainly can get an organizational changing players by drafting in top 5, although it's not as easy or quick as it is in other sports. I mean, the Brewers are rebuilding - I don't anticipate them being horrible for a decade in the mode of the Astros, KC, Cubs, etc.  I suppose that is tanking...but the Brewers are not attempting to put a competitive product on the field in 2016 and they will almost certainly be drafting in the top 5 again.

We probably just have different definitions of "tanking."  I think you very, very rarely see what I would define as "tanking" in baseball.  It does happen, but it's only when there's a guy like Bryce Harper that will be the #1 pick in the draft, a guy who is a once in a generation talent.  And teams only "tank" (again, in my definition) for a guy like that when they are already out of contention.  But what also tends to happen with teams that aren't in contention for a Playoff spot is they start giving their young players who aren't necessarily completely ready to play every day a lot more playing time to get a better idea of what they've got with those players and what they need to focus on in the offseason based on that information, so even then it's not totally "tanking" just to move up in the draft.

But yes, the draft does help, and being higher up in the draft gives you a better chance of getting a player who is going to contribute positively to your organization.  But in a draft with 40 rounds and so many players drafted, getting the #1 overall pick in the draft and hitting on all your picks becomes far less important than it is in the NBA or even the NFL.

The Brewers were certainly not trying to win this year, so in that sense then yes the Brewers are "tanking."

[GGGG]

IMO...

"Tanking" is intentionally losing for the sake of getting a higher draft pick.  Or better yet, making your team so weak that it will lose enough to get that pick.

The Brewers aren't tanking.  The Brewers would be thrilled if they made a playoff run next year even if it harms their draft position.  As wades said, your draft position isn't as important in MLB as it is in the NBA.  What the Brewers are doing is building their farm system back up, and the only way they could effectively do that is by trading current assets for future ones.  That means losing in the near term, but not intentionally so.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tanking in the traditional sense doesn't happen much in baseball. There are too many factors at play to intentionally lose games.  But there is more to being bad than just "getting a higher draft pick". You get higher international signing pools, you get a protected first round pick if you finish in the bottom ten, meaning a player that was offered the QO won't cost you your 1st rounder.

But there is basically punting a season, which by all account the Brewers are doing in 2016.

[jsglow]

Not to be argumentative but assuming everyone stays except, and our recruits come in next year we would literally be a Henry Ellenson away from being a top 10 team next year so we would be one guy away.

The argument for a lot of the losses this year are youth and inexperience(which I agree with) so next year we wouldn't have that. Also the Big East will be less good in total than it was this year as there is a lot of senior talent leaving (Dunn, Dunham, Roosevelt Jones, DSR, Ryan A, etc) and young talent likely leaving like Ellenson and Whitehead.

All in all, we've got bad timing, if we had this years team last year, we're top 4 in Big East or if we had next year's team this year we're top 5 in the Big East. Bad year to have no experience.

But either way, I stand-by the statement that we are one above average to great college play away from being top 10. We'll see what happens in the Juco/Grad transfer market. Maybe we get a Damion Lee type transfer this year as the missing piece.

I suppose your right eng, I guess I'm just burned out.  I think they can be marginally better next year.

[4everwarriors]

I'm tankful for Ellenson, hey?

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Whatever happens, happens.  It's not like we're one guy away from being Top 10.  I'm viewing this a little like the Brewers.  Oh, another guy got traded?  Whatever.

Eh, Damion Lee would certainly have helped. Not top 10 but at least a tourney team.

[mu03eng]

I suppose your right eng, I guess I'm just burned out.  I think they can be marginally better next year.

And now we've flipped from the beginning of the season  I think this team is pretty cooked for this season (though I think they could be very dangerous in the NIT) but the experience has been invaluable. Also I think they are showing more ability/lessons learned this season then last year ever did. Get an off season of conditioning/lifting/practice in, add Rowsey and hopefully a rebounder via transfer/JuCo and we are in a really good position next year.

Plus, if we are marginally better next year that'll be a pretty good next gain relative to Big East specifically and NCAA generally as there is a ton of talent/experience leaving after this season. i.e. we get a little better and the Big East gets easier = top 4 finish next year.

Respect the process 

[BM1090]

And now we've flipped from the beginning of the season  I think this team is pretty cooked for this season (though I think they could be very dangerous in the NIT) but the experience has been invaluable. Also I think they are showing more ability/lessons learned this season then last year ever did. Get an off season of conditioning/lifting/practice in, add Rowsey and hopefully a rebounder via transfer/JuCo and we are in a really good position next year.

Plus, if we are marginally better next year that'll be a pretty good next gain relative to Big East specifically and NCAA generally as there is a ton of talent/experience leaving after this season. i.e. we get a little better and the Big East gets easier = top 4 finish next year.

Respect the process 

Does the Big East get worse next year? I ask this honestly, because I'm not sure.

Providence definitely gets worse.

Seton Hall gets worse if Whitehead or Delgado leaves.

SJU gets better.

Nova I am convinced will be the same.

Georgetown should be the same or better (DSR leaves, freshmen get older).

Creighton loses Grosellle and Milliken, gets Marcus Foster.

Depaul will probably improve marginally.

Butler should take a step back.

Xavier is going to be really good again.

[jsglow]

And now we've flipped from the beginning of the season  I think this team is pretty cooked for this season (though I think they could be very dangerous in the NIT) but the experience has been invaluable. Also I think they are showing more ability/lessons learned this season then last year ever did. Get an off season of conditioning/lifting/practice in, add Rowsey and hopefully a rebounder via transfer/JuCo and we are in a really good position next year.

Plus, if we are marginally better next year that'll be a pretty good next gain relative to Big East specifically and NCAA generally as there is a ton of talent/experience leaving after this season. i.e. we get a little better and the Big East gets easier = top 4 finish next year.

Respect the process 

I remember all that optimism during the 'prediction podcast' eng.  Wasn't this about the time we were supposed to go on a massive win streak to get to your 11-7 or 12-6?   

[Lennys Tap]

Not to be argumentative but assuming everyone stays except, and our recruits come in next year we would literally be a Henry Ellenson away from being a top 10 team next year so we would be one guy away.

The argument for a lot of the losses this year are youth and inexperience(which I agree with) so next year we wouldn't have that. Also the Big East will be less good in total than it was this year as there is a lot of senior talent leaving (Dunn, Dunham, Roosevelt Jones, DSR, Ryan A, etc) and young talent likely leaving like Ellenson and Whitehead.

All in all, we've got bad timing, if we had this years team last year, we're top 4 in Big East or if we had next year's team this year we're top 5 in the Big East. Bad year to have no experience.

But either way, I stand-by the statement that we are one above average to great college play away from being top 10. We'll see what happens in the Juco/Grad transfer market. Maybe we get a Damion Lee type transfer this year as the missing piece.

Pomeroy final ranking from 2015:

Villanova   6
Butler       20
Xavier       22
Gtown       24
Providence 30
St. Johns   49
Creighton   85
Seton Hall  107
MU            110
DePaul       167

Pomeroy ranking for this year:

Villanova     1
Xavier         17
Seton Hall   35
Creighton    42
Providence  57
Gtown         62
MU             106
DePaul        166
St Johns      247

Even if this year is the best in the history of college basketball (it isn't) and last year was the worst (it wasn't) there is no way this year's Marquette team (ranked #106) is top 4, top 5 or top 6 in last year's Big East (4, 5 and 6 were #24 Georgetown, #30 Providence or #49 St Johns). Likely not ahead of 7th best #85 Creighton either.

We were bad last year and we're about the same amount of bad this year. Good news is that this year's bad team loses only one starter, not three. Bad news is that one is by far our best player. Let's break into the top 100 before we start talking about what it will take to get us into the top 10.   

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

We were bad last year and we're about the same amount of bad this year. Good news is that this year's bad team loses only one starter, not three. Bad news is that one is by far our best player. Let's break into the top 100 before we start talking about what it will take to get us into the top 10.   

I would agree that the results of this team have been equally terrible as last year.  Difference is we are likely seeing most of our players not yet playing at peak production for their career.  Couldn't say that last year.

[jsglow]

Lenny.  Butler?

[wadesworld]

St. John's - better but still not very good.
Xavier - a little worse but still good.
Seton Hall - depends on who leaves - could be better and very good or could be worse and not great.
Georgetown - slightly worse and not great.
Butler - worse but solid.
Providence - worse and okay.
Creighton - worse and not great.
DePaul - they are what they are.
Nova - a little worse but still very good.

Depending on what we get with our last scholarship(s) we could be towards the top of the BE fighting for 3rd.

[bilsu]

St John's supposedly will be a lot better next year. The announcers (probably MU game) for a St. John's game are expecting St. John's to do very well in the spring signing period. Apparently they are very close on some available recruits.

[GooooMarquette]

St John's supposedly will be a lot better next year. The announcers (probably MU game) for a St. John's game are expecting St. John's to do very well in the spring signing period. Apparently they are very close on some available recruits.

As we have learned, signing a bunch of really good frosh doesn't necessarily translate into being "a lot" better the first year.

[Herman Cain]

St. John's - better but still not very good.
Xavier - a little worse but still good.
Seton Hall - depends on who leaves - could be better and very good or could be worse and not great.
Georgetown - slightly worse and not great.
Butler - worse but solid.
Providence - worse and okay.
Creighton - worse and not great.
DePaul - they are what they are.
Nova - a little worse but still very good.

Depending on what we get with our last scholarship(s) we could be towards the top of the BE fighting for 3rd.

Creighton will be better. Still plenty of bigs.  Lots of players ready to step up. Will have the best PG in the league leading the way. 

[WarriorPride68]

St John's supposedly will be a lot better next year. The announcers (probably MU game) for a St. John's game are expecting St. John's to do very well in the spring signing period. Apparently they are very close on some available recruits.

Still alive with 5 stars Thon Maker & Rawle Alkins

They already have a nice recruiting class (top 50 HS kid, 247 #1 ranked JUCO, and a top 50 Euro from Bayern Munich) + Marcus Lovett (top 100) from Chi who wasn't a full qualifier this season who will be eligible next season

[Lennys Tap]

Lenny.  Butler?

47 this year - sorry I left them out.

[mu03eng]

I remember all that optimism during the 'prediction podcast' eng.  Wasn't this about the time we were supposed to go on a massive win streak to get to your 11-7 or 12-6?   

That is true, which is why I've gone so pessimistic late this year, but despite the loses and struggles you can see the nuggets there that weren't there last year.

[mu03eng]

Pomeroy final ranking from 2015:

Villanova   6
Butler       20
Xavier       22
Gtown       24
Providence 30
St. Johns   49
Creighton   85
Seton Hall  107
MU            110
DePaul       167

Pomeroy ranking for this year:

Villanova     1
Xavier         17
Seton Hall   35
Creighton    42
Providence  57
Gtown         62
MU             106
DePaul        166
St Johns      247

Even if this year is the best in the history of college basketball (it isn't) and last year was the worst (it wasn't) there is no way this year's Marquette team (ranked #106) is top 4, top 5 or top 6 in last year's Big East (4, 5 and 6 were #24 Georgetown, #30 Providence or #49 St Johns). Likely not ahead of 7th best #85 Creighton either.

We were bad last year and we're about the same amount of bad this year. Good news is that this year's bad team loses only one starter, not three. Bad news is that one is by far our best player. Let's break into the top 100 before we start talking about what it will take to get us into the top 10.

I'm not totally sold that KenPom rankings are the way to run this analysis but I get why you did it and not sure of a better way to run the analysis. This just feels like a much tougher year as MU has gotten statistically better in almost every category from last year but still is performing at about the same level as last year. Plus there were a fair number of games last year, especially early in the conference season that this year's talent could have swung (Xavier on the road, Butler at home are two that come to mind).

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'm not totally sold that KenPom rankings are the way to run this analysis but I get why you did it and not sure of a better way to run the analysis. This just feels like a much tougher year as MU has gotten statistically better in almost every category from last year but still is performing at about the same level as last year. Plus there were a fair number of games last year, especially early in the conference season that this year's talent could have swung (Xavier on the road, Butler at home are two that come to mind).

Agreed. I realize most of these rankings systems are flawed, but any metric that ranks X outside of the top 10 isn't one you should use in a global analysis. I watch a crap ton of CBB, and X is one of the top 5 teams in the country. I am very confident and comfortable in saying that.

[Lennys Tap]

I'm not totally sold that KenPom rankings are the way to run this analysis but I get why you did it and not sure of a better way to run the analysis. This just feels like a much tougher year as MU has gotten statistically better in almost every category from last year but still is performing at about the same level as last year. Plus there were a fair number of games last year, especially early in the conference season that this year's talent could have swung (Xavier on the road, Butler at home are two that come to mind).

Don't disagree - this does feel like a tougher year and this year's team feels better to me - but not better than 3 top 50 teams from last year. No way on that.

[MU82]

Pomeroy final ranking from 2015:

Villanova   6
Butler       20
Xavier       22
Gtown       24
Providence 30
St. Johns   49
Creighton   85
Seton Hall  107
MU            110
DePaul       167

Pomeroy ranking for this year:

Villanova     1
Xavier         17
Seton Hall   35
Creighton    42
Providence  57
Gtown         62
MU             106
DePaul        166
St Johns      247

Even if this year is the best in the history of college basketball (it isn't) and last year was the worst (it wasn't) there is no way this year's Marquette team (ranked #106) is top 4, top 5 or top 6 in last year's Big East (4, 5 and 6 were #24 Georgetown, #30 Providence or #49 St Johns). Likely not ahead of 7th best #85 Creighton either.

We were bad last year and we're about the same amount of bad this year. Good news is that this year's bad team loses only one starter, not three. Bad news is that one is by far our best player. Let's break into the top 100 before we start talking about what it will take to get us into the top 10.

I don't give a rat's rump about what KenPom says. They had Wisconsin ranked No. 1 for about 10 years running.

I have eyes. I can see that this year's Marquette team is significantly better than last year's. Not even close. We've beaten a top-10 and two top-25s. Won a November tourney. Won in freakin' Madison, for cripe's sake. Were competitive against a lot of very good teams. We've had some bad losses too, of course -- as if we didn't last season.

We are much more fun to watch, too. So stop it with the KenPom. Use your eyes and your common sense.

As for the Big East being better or worse overall, that I don't know. I watch MU games but only occasionally glance for a minute or three at the others. I'll leave that to others to decide. Maybe KenPom even.

Otherwise, yes, I'm not too worried about when we'll break into the top 10.

[WarriorPride68]

I don't give a rat's rump about what KenPom says. They had Wisconsin ranked No. 1 for about 10 years running.

Pomeroy started in 2002. Wisconsin has never finished #1 on Kenpom. Wisconsin has finished high because they have the 9th best winning % since 2000-2001 in entire NCAA:

http://www.sportingnews.com/list/4652937-top-college-basketball-teams-programs-decade/slide/347938

Wojo & a lot of others are big supporters of Pomeroy

[Lennys Tap]

I don't give a rat's rump about what KenPom says. They had Wisconsin ranked No. 1 for about 10 years running.

I have eyes. I can see that this year's Marquette team is significantly better than last year's. Not even close. We've beaten a top-10 and two top-25s. Won a November tourney. Won in freakin' Madison, for cripe's sake. Were competitive against a lot of very good teams. We've had some bad losses too, of course -- as if we didn't last season.

We are much more fun to watch, too. So stop it with the KenPom. Use your eyes and your common sense.

As for the Big East being better or worse overall, that I don't know. I watch MU games but only occasionally glance for a minute or three at the others. I'll leave that to others to decide. Maybe KenPom even.

Otherwise, yes, I'm not too worried about when we'll break into the top 10.

Why use any statistical analysis when we have your eyes to guide us? Pomeroy, Sagarin, Nate Silver, etc., can shut down their operations in deference to your far superior "eye test".

You don't give a ret's ass about Pomeroy yet you use a totally worthless stat (we beat a top 10 team, whoopee!) to "prove" how much better we are than last year. I've seen Providence play several times this year and no way are they a top 10 team. They're #57 in Pomeroy, and that's about right.

Are we more fun to watch? There I'll agree with you. We were all very tired of watching Derrick, Juan, etc. A mediocre team of freshman is much more fun than a mediocre team of seniors. And there's the promise that freshmen get better. But for right now, we're only slightly better than last year.