[Cracked Sidewalks] What's wrong with Henry?

[CrackedSidewalks]

What's wrong with Henry?

Nothing.

He is just a super talented freshman that shoots more than any other major conference freshman except Jamal Murray of Kentucky.

An MU Scoop question asked how one of the top 10 NBA prospects could only be the 328th most valuable player at Value Add.

The one thing you do fault Henry with is shooting too much even though he is missing. Henry takes 23% of all Marquette shots game in and game out (this even includes all the shots taken when he is on the bench). Only 11 other power conference players shoot as much as Henry:

12 biggest shooters	Yr	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	%sh/gms	eFG%	teamName
Barber+ Anthony 12	Jr	94.8	115.1	28.9	29	27%	44.4	North Carolina St.
Moody+ Stefan 42	Sr	87.1	113.7	32.5	31.4	27%	51.9	Mississippi
Carter+ Eli 3	Sr	76.8	94.6	32.8	34.5	26%	46.8	Boston College
Hield+ Buddy 24	Sr	83.7	124.5	28.7	30.9	26%	63.9	Oklahoma
Murray+ Jamal 23	Fr	85	108	25.7	29	25%	50.8	Kentucky
Brogdon+ Malcolm 15	Sr	82.1	114.8	26.8	30	25%	50.4	Virginia
Whitehead+ Isaiah 15	So	74.1	98.1	30.8	33	24%	41.8	Seton Hall
Canty+ Kareem 1	Jr	85	114.2	27.1	28.7	24%	55.1	Auburn
Bentil+ Ben 0	So	82.1	113.7	27.2	28.3	23%	49.8	Providence
Taylor+ Brandon 10	Sr	79.8	102.8	28	29.1	23%	49.6	Penn St.
Punter+ Kevin 0	Sr	86.8	117.7	27.6	26.5	23%	55.7	Tennessee
Ellenson+ Henry 13	Fr	79.7	99.2	26	28.3	23%	46.6	Marquette

I last ran these before the St. John's game, so they are not quite up to date.

On the question of Value Add not adjusting for double teams - it really does. Players who shoot more because they are the go-to guy usually rank higher in Value Add unless they keep shooting even when it means taking shots that they miss a big percentage of the time - and with an eFG% of 46.6, I just believe Henry is shooting too much. Against Top 100 teams his Offensive Rating at www.kenpom.com is just 87.

His blocked shots (while mostly coming against weak teams) and his rebounding put him in the top 10% of all players - a great mark for a freshman. If you note, Jamal Murray of Kentucky is the only other freshman who shoots as much as Henry.

The other things holding Henry back is that MU has played so many terrible teams, and just like RPI, Value Add is held down if you are putting up a lot of your numbers against awful teams.

But as I point out in a response:

The NBA indicators we give NBA teams measure how good the player should be in the pros - and they are completely different than the college Value Add.

For example, Andre Drummond was ranked 268th in Value Add in College and Jae Crowder was 2nd. It was no comparison. When they met Crowder scored 29 points, had 12 rebounds and finished fouling Drummond out by dunking on him for a 3-point play. Drummond sat with 7 points and 4 rebounds.

Crowder was a MUCH better college player than Drummond - no question. That's why Crowder was a second team All-American and Drummond was nothing. But no one ever doubted that Drummond would be be the better than Crowder in the NBA and be a lottery pick.
Source: What's wrong with Henry?

[mu03eng]

So Henry is shooting too much....is this on the coaching staff? Gotta wonder how you change the way the offense works to distribute Henry's bad shots to others who might take better shots.

[connie]

A serious problem with our team given our shooting percentages (other than Luke really)  SO I don't disagree, but where do those shots go?

[Lennys Tap]

And as I said when I pointed out that Henry is far underperforming (like Drummond) NBA scout's projections - sucks for us. Hope Wojo can find us another Jae Crowder.

[GGGG]

I'm beginning to see why one-and-dones shouldn't come to a basketball program like Marquette's at this stage.  If he would have gone to Kentucky or MSU, he would have had more scorers around him so he could be more efficient even with less minutes.  Here he is trying to carry the offense and simply can't because he's a freshman.  (And not Carmello Anthony.)

So he's criticized, picked apart, won't get to the NCAA tournament...and will likely be drafted in the lottery anyway.

[mu03eng]

I'm beginning to see why one-and-dones shouldn't come to a basketball program like Marquette's at this stage.  If he would have gone to Kentucky or MSU, he would have had more scorers around him so he could be more efficient even with less minutes.  Here he is trying to carry the offense and simply can't because he's a freshman.  (And not Carmello Anthony.)

So he's criticized, picked apart, won't get to the NCAA tournament...and will likely be drafted in the lottery anyway.

In this case, I'm not totally convinced it's an MU program issue so much as a timing thing (bad PG play). The PG play is bad right now with TOs and an inability to feed Luke and Henry in good positions to score. This forces Henry to create which is not his game right now.

If there was a Travis or later years DJ on this team I think it would be a very different story.

[jesmu84]

One thing I've noticed this year - if Henry is on the court, and the shot clock is at 10 or less, it's almost a certainty that he gets the ball on the wing and does what he can in an ISO. Not successful all that much. And he rarely looks to pass once he gets in that position.

TLDR: I hate our end-of-shotclock offense

[brewcity77]

I'm beginning to see why one-and-dones shouldn't come to a basketball program like Marquette's at this stage.  If he would have gone to Kentucky or MSU, he would have had more scorers around him so he could be more efficient even with less minutes.  Here he is trying to carry the offense and simply can't because he's a freshman.  (And not Carmello Anthony.)

So he's criticized, picked apart, won't get to the NCAA tournament...and will likely be drafted in the lottery anyway.

But at the end of the day, this is probably the most important factor. Let's be frank, had we landed a player of Henry's ilk in any of the past 15 years outside of the past two, he likely would have been a key cog on a NCAA team. He would have been able to play off of veterans like Wade, Diener, Novak, the Amigos, Lazar, Jimmy, Jae & DJO, Vander, or Jamil and Davante in pretty much any of those seasons.

We're at our lowest point of the past 15 years, which makes it tough. But at the end of the day, this is still a big enough stage to make him a lottery pick, and a decent chance he'll be top-5. No matter the knocks and nits we can pick with his game, he's still a clearly excellent talent that will make a lot of money at the next level, and being at Marquette won't hinder that, even on a team with a lesser supporting cast than MSU or Kentucky that will likely be on the outside looking in come March.

[Hubert Davis]

Henry is our best player on a very mediocre team... Keep shooting big fella.

Just win baby.

[jsheim]

OK who do you think gets picked higher? Stone or Ellenson?
I think Stone goes after this year. That's his goal.

fewer minutes on a star team....but one breakout game.

[WarriorPride68]

OK who do you think gets picked higher? Stone or Ellenson?
I think Stone goes after this year. That's his goal.

fewer minutes on a star team....but one breakout game.

I'm not sure I've seen a mock/rankings with Diamond higher than Henry

[Spotcheck Billy]

I'm not sure I've seen a mock/rankings with Diamond higher than Henry

draftexpress currently has HE going 7th and Stone 10th

[MU82]

So he's criticized, picked apart, won't get to the NCAA tournament...and will likely be drafted in the lottery anyway.

I have watched every Marquette game and have seen several basketball re-cap shows on ESPN and FS1. I have seen VERY VERY VERY little of Henry being criticized and picked apart. So little, it pretty much registers as none.

Instead, every play-by-play man and analyst has raved about Henry. When he does something extraordinary, they go ga-ga over him. When he does something poorly, they mention it in the context of the game but they sure don't rip him.

Same with opposing coaches. All they do is heap praise on him.

The national perception of Henry is extremely favorable. Don't confuse the blather of a few mopes here on Scoop with anything that actually matters.

[GGGG]

I have watched every Marquette game and have seen several basketball re-cap shows on ESPN and FS1. I have seen VERY VERY VERY little of Henry being criticized and picked apart. So little, it pretty much registers as none.

Instead, every play-by-play man and analyst has raved about Henry. When he does something extraordinary, they go ga-ga over him. When he does something poorly, they mention it in the context of the game but they sure don't rip him.

Same with opposing coaches. All they do is heap praise on him.

The national perception of Henry is extremely favorable. Don't confuse the blather of a few mopes here on Scoop with anything that actually matters.

I was talking about Scoopers.  But otherwise you are correct.

[We R Final Four]

Here he is trying to carry the offense and simply can't because he's a freshman.  (And not Carmello Anthony.)

So he's criticized, picked apart, won't get to the NCAA tournament...and will likely be drafted in the lottery anyway.

HE's inability to carry the offense is not due the fact that he is a freshmen, imo. Hate to say it, but it's cuz he's not a great scorer from outside of 15'. his efficiency would increase if he never shot another 3 pt shot.

[GGGG]

HE's inability to carry the offense is not due the fact that he is a freshmen, imo. Hate to say it, but it's cuz he's not a great scorer from outside of 15'. his efficiency would increase if he never shot another 3 pt shot.

I agree. Limit his role to his strengths and he would look better. Like every other player.

[mu03eng]

I think the comparison between this year's team and the freshmen year Amigo's is extremely relevant. There are two major differences in that year and this that give us the results we have: DJ had a TO rate of 18% while our primary PG combo is 28%(Cheatham) and 31%(Carter), that year Novak was #1 in the country in off efficiency and was a lights out 3pt shooter we suck at shooting 3s this year.

If Henry shots 3s at 35% instead of 25% we'd have at least 3 more wins. So while Henry's performance for this team has been an issue its not because he has "problems" but the team's issues only make his worse and vice versa.

[We R Final Four]

Yes--he would look better by helping the team by scoring more and being more efficient.

[bilsu]

Henry often gets hit on drives he misses and there is no foul called. There would be no official shot, if they called the foul and therefore he would of taken less shots.I think he needs to be more forceful on his drives. He needs to learn to finish through minor contact. He is so big and strong that he should concentrate more on putting the ball in the basket vs. not taking a hard hit. Also, if he is more forceful the fouls that are not being called might start being called.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Henry often gets hit on drives he misses and there is no foul called. There would be no official shot, if they called the foul and therefore he would of taken less shots.I think he needs to be more forceful on his drives. He needs to learn to finish through minor contact. He is so big and strong that he should concentrate more on putting the ball in the basket vs. not taking a hard hit. Also, if he is more forceful the fouls that are not being called might start being called.

I agree in theory, but I think because of his size a lot of calls will go against him. Refs see a big guy plow through a smaller guy, they seem to call more charging fouls

[auburnmarquette]

The national perception of Henry is extremely favorable. Don't confuse the blather of a few mopes here on Scoop with anything that actually matters.

I don't know that I'd take most comments as moping. Some just wish we had an experienced PG like Diener, DJ, Dunn if he has come here, Junior or even Traci two years from now to feed him and Luke the ball and maximize his incredible ability.

WE will all be proud of him when he is an awesome NBA player, there just might be a little longing for the fact that he didn't come along at a time the teammates were there for a run.

Of course we can have our cake and eat it too if Henry surprises us all and decides to stay and win a national title here!

[MomofMUltiples]

Personally, I think Henry has known for awhile that he'll have a place in the NBA next year and he was just looking for a good place to hang out for a year.  Where better than a place where his folks can come see him play AND he gets to play with his brother?  Like '82, I watch A LOT of college basketball and recaps and everybody who talks about Henry extols his NBA potential and how excited GMs and scouts are about him.  The only one I hear about more is Ben Simmons, who of course is going to single-handedly save the NBA.  Hardly ever hear much about Stone.  This is not to say Henry doesn't enjoy college or he's not dedicated to Marquette basketball.  Doesn't seem like he was raised to coast.  But folks who think his so-called "sloppy" play is going to hurt his draft stock and force him into another year of college are fooling themselves.  Henry will play a second year only if he chooses to - not because he falls out of the lottery.

[Herman Cain]

I'm not sure I've seen a mock/rankings with Diamond higher than Henry

This one has Stone 16 and Henry 22.
http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft

[MerrittsMustache]

Personally, I think Henry has known for awhile that he'll have a place in the NBA next year and he was just looking for a good place to hang out for a year.  Where better than a place where his folks can come see him play AND he gets to play with his brother?  Like '82, I watch A LOT of college basketball and recaps and everybody who talks about Henry extols his NBA potential and how excited GMs and scouts are about him.  The only one I hear about more is Ben Simmons, who of course is going to single-handedly save the NBA.  Hardly ever hear much about Stone.  This is not to say Henry doesn't enjoy college or he's not dedicated to Marquette basketball.  Doesn't seem like he was raised to coast.  But folks who think his so-called "sloppy" play is going to hurt his draft stock and force him into another year of college are fooling themselves.  Henry will play a second year only if he chooses to - not because he falls out of the lottery.

How about this spin?

Henry playing on a mediocre team is actually helping his draft stock. Every one-and-done player has holes in his game and areas for improvement. Often, when one of those players is at Kentucky, Duke, etc, those flaws can be covered up, to some extent, by the surrounding talent. Henry's flaws, on the other hand, are out in the open and, quite frankly, they're very coachable - shot selection, defense, creating off the dribble, etc. That's a good thing in the mind of an NBA GM. There aren't a lot of question marks in his game. You know what you're getting, which makes him a very safe lottery pick.

OK, maybe that's a stretch and NBA GMs don't think that way but I was trying to look at Henry's "struggles" from a different angle.

[Class71]

I prefer to talk about the team since this is a TEAM sport. Great for HE  if he is an NBA draft pick and he makes a ton of bucks. I am just more interested in the TEAM and MU tradition. We had some great players who needed to develop and they did. IMO that is what makes MU unique. We produce Butler's, Mathews and Jae's. And earlier Wades's, and Thompson's and so many others. If someone is here one year and gone tomorrow on a team that did not reach their potential what was the point?  It leaves me with very mixed feelings and a great feeling of  non accomplishment.