NEW RPI 40.

[geps]

Well at least can we get under 100?

[LAZER]

Well at least can we get under 100?

Close, but probably not.

[wadesworld]

Well at least can we get under 100?

edited: to reflect 140, instead of 40 that was posted
edited again: Back to 40 in case that was you guess.  I don't really know what you were saying.  But our current RPI is 140 per real time rpi

What?

[#UnleashSean]

Well at least can we get under 100?

edited: to reflect 140, instead of 40 that was posted
edited again: Back to 40 in case that was you guess.  I don't really know what you were saying.  But our current RPI is 140 per real time rpi

Calculus makes more sense at first glance then you.

[rocky_warrior]

What?

To clarify, the edits were mine.  I thought he was posting our current, which is 140 (and accidentally posted 40), but then I re-though and maybe is guessing at 40.  I just don't know.  I'll remove my comments from his post to clarify.

[wadesworld]

Calculus makes more sense at first glance then you.

Haha.

To clarify, the edits were mine.  I thought he was posting our current, which is 140 (and accidentally posted 40), but then I re-though and maybe is guessing at 40.  I just don't know.  I'll remove my comments from his post.

Gotcha.  Thanks for the clarification.

[geps]

To clarify, was fantasizing about a rise to 40. But could be pushing the 90s?

[MUMountin]

To clarify, was fantasizing about a rise to 40. But could be pushing the 90s?

LiveRPI has us at 101 currently.

[KampusFoods]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/page/1/sort/RPI

92

[Benny B]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/page/1/sort/RPI

92

Never underestimate the effect that the combination of a) a road win and b) conference play has on your RPI in January.

[wadesworld]

Never underestimate the effect that the combination of a) a road win and b) conference play has on your RPI in January.

Yup.  A lot of those teams right above us are going to fall really far, regardless of the outcome of their upcoming games.

[Benny B]

Yup.  A lot of those teams right above us are going to fall really far, regardless of the outcome of their upcoming games.

Exactly.  This is why RPI sucks at this point in the season... just above MU in the rankings are the likes of LBSU (at 4-9), Evansville (with a SOS nearly double MU's), and TAMU-CC (with an adjusted scoring margin of -6.0).

Here's a nice little tidbit... MU's non-conference RPI is 30.  For all the bitching and whining we've endured over the past few weeks about playing too many cupcakes, losing to Belmont/Iowa, ASU/LSU/Wis not being good wins, etc.... all I can say is #30.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Exactly.  This is why RPI sucks at this point in the season... just above MU in the rankings are the likes of LBSU (at 4-9), Evansville (with a SOS nearly double MU's), and TAMU-CC (with an adjusted scoring margin of -6.0).

Here's a nice little tidbit... MU's non-conference RPI is 30.  For all the bitching and whining we've endured over the past few weeks about playing too many cupcakes, losing to Belmont/Iowa, ASU/LSU/Wis not being good wins, etc.... all I can say is #30.

Wait, what? How is MU's non-con RPI 30, but overall RPI in the 90-100 range after adding games again Seton Hall, Georgetown and Providence in conference?  Please explain.

To clarify, not saying I don't think RPI is most irrelevant at this stage of the season, but still curious how that math works.

[GooooMarquette]

Wait, what? How is MU's non-con RPI 30, but overall RPI in the 90-100 range after adding games again Seton Hall, Georgetown and Providence in conference?  Please explain.

To clarify, not saying I don't think RPI is most irrelevant at this stage of the season, but still curious how that math works.

Not sure about all the numbers, but if true it might be because we were 10-2 nonconference, and are currently 1-2 in conference.  SOS means a lot, but you still have to win.  And our nonconference SOS might be improving with LSU's win over UK last night and  Iowa's recent wins over MSU and Purdue.

[Benny B]

Wait, what? How is MU's non-con RPI 30, but overall RPI in the 90-100 range after adding games again Seton Hall, Georgetown and Providence in conference?  Please explain.

To clarify, not saying I don't think RPI is most irrelevant at this stage of the season, but still curious how that math works.

Perhaps JB can jump in here, but non-con RPI excludes conference teams from an individual team's RPI calculation... so SHU, GU and PC would obviously be ignored in calculating MU's NCRPI, but when you calculate your opponent's win percentage (and opponent's opponent's) that make up the other 75% of the calculation, you're also excluding wins/losses your opponents and opponent's opponents have against Big East teams from the calculation.  So in MU's case for example, when calculating Becky's win percentage, you exclude their loss to Georgetown; likewise, when calculating Purdue's win percentage (who played IUPUI earlier in the year), you exclude their loss to Butler.

As you can see, the stat is heavily weighted by how your own conference has performed in non-conference play, i.e. the more wins your conference has, the more losses that are being excluded from your team's RPI calculation.  In that regard, it won't necessarily define, but it does give an idea of what a team's RPI "potential" is.... not accurately, but a heck of a lot better than anything you could get from RPIforecast.com or RPIwizard.com.

[Benny B]

Not sure about all the numbers, but if true it might be because we were 10-2 nonconference, and are currently 1-2 in conference.  SOS means a lot, but you still have to win.  And our nonconference SOS might be improving with LSU's win over UK last night and  Iowa's recent wins over MSU and Purdue.

Technically, the outcome of the LSU/UK game has no effect on LSU's strength of schedule... LSU's SOS improved when they put five players on the court for tipoff last night.

[GooooMarquette]

Technically, the outcome of the LSU/UK game has no effect on LSU's strength of schedule... LSU's SOS improved when they put five players on the court for tipoff last night.

I meant that it helped MU's SOS when LSU beat UK.

[brewcity77]

Exactly.  This is why RPI sucks at this point in the season... just above MU in the rankings are the likes of LBSU (at 4-9), Evansville (with a SOS nearly double MU's), and TAMU-CC (with an adjusted scoring margin of -6.0).

Here's a nice little tidbit... MU's non-conference RPI is 30.  For all the bitching and whining we've endured over the past few weeks about playing too many cupcakes, losing to Belmont/Iowa, ASU/LSU/Wis not being good wins, etc.... all I can say is #30.

Source?

RPIForecast.com has Marquette's non-conference RPI as 143. Usually that number will be pretty static from this point, unless multiple teams we already played end up doing much better (or worse) than expected.

[Benny B]

Source?

Some little Mickey Mouse sports website called ESPN.com.

RPI Forecast (et al) are going to have much lower numbers because - presumably - their RPI calculations simply exclude conference results from the team's W/L percentage, not the OWP or OOWP like ESPN does.

BTW - You're looking at expected NCRPI, not actual NCRPI.

That aside, I've picked up on a few discrepancies in RPIForecast's/RPIWizard's calculations which suggests they're using obsolete (or bad) data and/or are butchering their algorithms.

[MomofMUltiples]

Some little Mickey Mouse sports website called ESPN.com.

Did it have pictures of Ben Simmons plastered all over it?

[Benny B]

Did it have pictures of Ben Simmons plastered all over it?

Just a couple dozen.  Not thousands.

[brewcity77]

Some little Mickey Mouse sports website called ESPN.com.

RPI Forecast (et al) are going to have much lower numbers because - presumably - their RPI calculations simply exclude conference results from the team's W/L percentage, not the OWP or OOWP like ESPN does.

BTW - You're looking at expected NCRPI, not actual NCRPI.

That aside, I've picked up on a few discrepancies in RPIForecast's/RPIWizard's calculations which suggests they're using obsolete (or bad) data and/or are butchering their algorithms.

Generally, I am not a fan of using ESPN for any rankings because they always create their own crap that no one else gives a hoot about. Part of their marketing model, I guess.

And yes, I'd always rather look at expected non-con RPI because it's far more meaningful to consider the full season schedule. A snapshot looking at now is useless because teams like Grambling, Jackson State, and other cupcakes will traditionally have a much tougher SOS that would artificially boost their non-con RPI early in the season (as they presumably play a ton of teams with winning records, whereas come season's end, most of their games will be against teams with losing records).

Yes, I realize that means taking predictions into account, but usually those predictions balance out pretty well. Sure, if Maine, San Jose State, Jackson State, Chicago State, IUPUI, Belmont, and Presbyterian all win their conferences it could change radically, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that things will balance out, the way they tend to do every single year.

EDIT: Also, Warren Nolan has our non-con RPI at 129. Sorry, but no way I buy us at #30 no matter who's selling. You don't get an RPI of 30 with the schedule we played.

[Benny B]

Generally, I am not a fan of using ESPN for any rankings because they always create their own crap that no one else gives a hoot about. Part of their marketing model, I guess.

And yes, I'd always rather look at expected non-con RPI because it's far more meaningful to consider the full season schedule. A snapshot looking at now is useless because teams like Grambling, Jackson State, and other cupcakes will traditionally have a much tougher SOS that would artificially boost their non-con RPI early in the season (as they presumably play a ton of teams with winning records, whereas come season's end, most of their games will be against teams with losing records).

Yes, I realize that means taking predictions into account, but usually those predictions balance out pretty well. Sure, if Maine, San Jose State, Jackson State, Chicago State, IUPUI, Belmont, and Presbyterian all win their conferences it could change radically, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that things will balance out, the way they tend to do every single year.

EDIT: Also, Warren Nolan has our non-con RPI at 129. Sorry, but no way I buy us at #30 no matter who's selling. You don't get an RPI of 30 with the schedule we played.

I highly doubt that the selection committee calculates non-conference RPI simply be removing conference teams from 1/4 of the RPI equation.

[brewcity77]

I highly doubt that the selection committee calculates non-conference RPI simply be removing conference teams from 1/4 of the RPI equation.

I don't think I asserted that remotely... 

[rocky_warrior]

I highly doubt that the selection committee calculates non-conference RPI simply be removing conference teams from 1/4 of the RPI equation.

But they might use the NCAA's calculations, which doesn't show a Non-con, but does only have us at 140...

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi