Early Season Team TrendsSlow week, you say? Not here at Cracked Sidewalks, where the entries keep coming. For today's continued discussion, we just wanted to share some early trends with regards to the 07-08 team.
First of all, let's get this right on the table. Yes, it's still early in the season, and yes, we have not even started with conference play. Feel better? However, we have played approximately 20% of the season and that includes games with Duke and UW. Not only that, but the 2008 Pomeroy Ratings have our strength of schedule at 6. Besides, there are just not a lot of big games going on between now and the start of conference play.
We'll cover how the 07-08 team is trending with respect to our opponents, the 06-07 team, and the 05-06 team. Let's start with some traditional shooting statistics of FG%, 3FG%, FT%, and Points / Game.Looking at the figures, the 07-08 team is looking very favorable. We are up across all categories except for FT% and 3FG% in comparison with the 05-06 team. Steve Novak wrecks the curve on those figures. Also, we should treat the points / game figures with a bit of skepticism because that includes the time we dropped 100 points on UWM.
Now let's take a view at some more traditional statistics.
Right off, the team is committing more fouls on a per game basis. I think part of this can be attributed to (and offset by) the massive increase in steals. The best part of this comparison, however, is the reduction in turnovers. That is fantastic. The block figures are somewhat misleading, because the per-game figures are relatively low. We also note that the assists are up from last year (but only slightly) and down from 05-06. Frankly, we have no idea what that means.
Let's move on to more of the non-traditional stats.
We actually found the possessions / game statistic to be somewhat interesting. While it appears that the team is playing at a faster pace, the numbers suggest that this is not quite the case. On a possession basis, we're about the same as last year and the year before that. What has improved, on the other hand, is our Offensive Efficiency. The team Defensive Efficiency does not appear to be as good as last year's team, but it is slightly better than the 05-06 team at this point. Again, this is something to treat with some skepticism because against the top teams we were not as efficient defensively (Duke - 113 ; UW - 110). We'll watch both of these figures closely throughout the year, and especially during conference play.
Finally, let's look at Dean Oliver's Four Factors.
I feel compelled to say that the numbers I've calculated are not quite the same as Pomeroy, and I don't have a good explanation. I'm reasonably sure that the math is right and there are no spreadsheet errors. Plus, all our information comes from Marquette box scores. Regardless, they are /fairly/ close, so let's proceed.
Again, our Effective FG% is up across the board. This team is better at taking and making open shots. I believe that a good chunk of this comes from the transition game. Also, it's nice to see the Turnover Rate down across the board as well. Our Offensive Rebounding comparison is a little unfair, because our current figure has the team ranked in the top 10% of D1 teams. Last year's team was very good at Offensive Rebounding %, and this year's team just is average at OR% defense. Note that the team is top 10% for eFG%, OR%, and TO Rate.
All in all, these early trends are a pleasure to see. Certainly we'll have to revisit once conference play begins, but the initial high expectations for the team tend to be proving out. Will the trends continue, however?
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2007/12/early-season-team-trends.html
