[Cracked Sidewalks] Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23-13 Season

[CrackedSidewalks]

Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23-13 Season

After updating the Value Add database today, I immediately simulated a season in which Marquette went 23-13 (including 3-11 against NCAA-bound teams) to earn a 2-seed in the NIT where we lost at Stanford in the quarterfinals or to Syracuse in the semis at MSG.

Henry Ellenson (7.4 points in Value Add) and Duane Wilson (5.27) makes MU 12.67 points better per game than they would be without either - and they join Butler, Providence and Xavier with two players in the top 5% of all players. The only team with more is Villanova (5 players in top 5%).

Winning those two would revenge past heartbreaking NCAA losses to both and give us a shot at South Carolina for the NIT title. Obviously just a couple of extra wins turn a 2-seed in the NIT into an NCAA team, so hopefully MU is back in the Big Dance.

The following is the game-by-game giving the team with the higher Value Add the win once adjusting for home court advantage and the fact that young teams like MU improve more during a season than more experienced teams. This is why I have MU as a Big East 6-seed defeating Xavier as a 3-seed in the opening round of the Big East tournament. I also have MU as the best team in the NIT tournament, but with the overall record justifying a 2-seed, MU would play AT Stanford and then in MSG vs. Syracuse to lose home court advantage.

For MU and then each opponent I list the team's National rank based purely on the sum of their players' Value Add (Marquette is the 55th best team based on 28.28 in total Value Add and Belmont is 133rd based on 16.25).

"NBA" is how many NBA players the team will likely have, so MU has a 1.0 based on Henry Ellenson having a 91% chance and JJJ and Duane Wilson having a small chance to make the NBA. The only opponent with more potential NBA talent is LSU with a 1.4 as the rounded sum of Ben Simmons (96% chance), Tim Quarterman (34%), Craig Victor (8%), Elbert Robinson (4%) and Josh Gray (4%). In other words, we expect LSU to produce 1.4 NBA players like we expect the average American couple to produce 1.9 children.

MU's first opponent Belmont would win the OVC to get the bid and a 16-seed based on Value Add, giving MU three projected NCAA opponents in 10 days with Iowa (11-seed) and LSU (7-seed). While a big underdog against LSU the first game in New York, MU would have the edge in the second New York game November 24 - whether it be against NC State or Arizona State.

Obviously the March opponents in the NIT, NCAA or any other tournament could be anyone, and I laid out the extra tournament games in both the Big East and NIT, even though under this scenario MU would be eliminated before facing Nova for the Big East title or Syracuse or South Carolina in the NIT Final Four.

Nat'l	Team	Pred	Value Add	NBA	Conf	Bid	Seed	MU vs.
55	Marquette		28.28	1.0	BE	2 NIT	2-seed	NA
133	Belmont	W	16.25	0.0	OVC	1 NCAA	16-seed	11/13/2015
326	IUPUI	W	3.84	0.0	Sum			11/16/2015
45	Iowa	W	30.67	0.1	B10	1 NCAA	11-seed	11/19/2015
27	Louisiana St.	L	38.76	1.4	SEC	1 NCAA	7-seed	11/23/2015
62	North Carolina St.	W	27.17	0.2	ACC	2 NIT	3-seed	11/24/2015
282	Jackson St.	W	6.74	0.0	SWAC			11/29/2015
352	Grambling	W	0	0.0	SWAC			12/2/2015
348	Maine	W	1.28	0.0	AE			12/5/2015
296	San Jose St.	W	5.77	0.0	MWC			12/8/2015
21	Wisconsin	L	39.34	0.7	B10	1 NCAA	6-seed	12/12/2015
319	Chicago St.	W	6.59	0.0	WAC			12/21/2015
305	Presbyterian	W	5.14	0.0	BSth			12/27/2015
51	Seton Hall	W	29.38	0.3	BE	2 NIT	1-seed	12/30/2015
31	Georgetown	L	34.63	0.3	BE	1 NCAA	8-seed	1/2/2016
76	Providence	L	24.37	0.8	BE	3 CBI	2-seed	1/5/2016
150	St. John's	W	14.71	0.0	BE			1/9/2016
10	Villanova	L	42.61	0.6	BE	1 NCAA	3-seed	1/13/2016
35	Xavier	W	32.62	0.3	BE	1 NCAA	9-seed	1/16/2016
122	DePaul	W	17.9	0.0	BE	4 CIT	6-seed	1/20/2016
150	St. John's	W	14.71	0.0	BE			1/23/2016
324	Stetson	W	3.9	0.0	ASun	5 Ineligible		1/27/2016
40	Butler	L	33.94	0.1	BE	1 NCAA	10-seed	1/30/2016
51	Seton Hall	L	29.38	0.3	BE	2 NIT	1-seed	2/3/2016
35	Xavier	L	32.62	0.3	BE	1 NCAA	9-seed	2/6/2016
76	Providence	W	24.37	0.8	BE	3 CBI	2-seed	2/10/2016
80	Creighton	W	23.46	0.0	BE	3 CBI	3-seed	2/13/2016
122	DePaul	W	17.9	0.0	BE	4 CIT	6-seed	2/20/2016
80	Creighton	W	23.46	0.0	BE	3 CBI	3-seed	2/24/2016
10	Villanova	L	42.61	0.6	BE	1 NCAA	3-seed	2/27/2016
31	Georgetown	L	34.63	0.3	BE	1 NCAA	8-seed	3/1/2016
40	Butler	L	33.94	0.1	BE	1 NCAA	10-seed	3/5/2016
35	Xavier	W	32.62	0.3	BE	1 NCAA	9-seed	3/10/2016
31	Georgetown	L	34.63	0.3	BE	1 NCAA	8-seed	3/11/2016
10	Villanova	L	42.61	0.6	BE	1 NCAA	3-seed	3/12/2016
159	Weber St.	W	14.15	0.2	BSky	2 NIT	7-seed	3/17/2016
61	Mississippi	W	27.26	0.1	SEC	2 NIT	3-seed	3/22/2016
52	Stanford	L	29.01	0.2	P12	2 NIT	1-seed	3/24/2016
53	Syracuse	L	28.68	0.2	ACC	2 NIT	1-seed	3/29/2016
50	South Carolina	L	29.68	0.1	SEC	2 NIT	1-seed	3/31/2016
	23-13 (Nova, Syracuse, SC)

Ellenson ranks in the top 60 of all players. Remember, even though he is one of the best 10 players based on mock drafts, players are drafted based on how good they will get to be - so always be patient with freshmen! The huge improvement for most players is during the offseason between freshman and sophomore seasons.

Source: Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23-13 Season

[Brewtown Andy]

So, if I'm reading it right, the projection says that 21 wins with this schedule doesn't get an NCAA bid?

[tower912]

Two of those wins are in the NIT.   He is projecting 19-12 regular season. 

[NotAnAlum]

This has us going 9-9 in conference.  Then beating X in the first round of the BE tourne.  That would have to put us ahead of X for an at large bid so for this scenario the BE would only be getting 4 bids.  If that is the level of respect the BE gets this year we are probably in trouble as far as going to the dance.  One more conf win making us 10-8 and a win in the BE tourney is what I believe we need to do to get in with this projected non con record but a lot of that depends on the feeling nationally about the strength of the league.  Very close but very do-able.

[bamamarquettefan]

So, if I'm reading it right, the projection says that 21 wins with this schedule doesn't get an NCAA bid?

I basically just assumed the committee also issued their bids based on top value add ratings as well without digging any deeper, so as a projected not 2-seed we would be "next four out." If the big East has the kind of early season we had last year then it could tip a 5th and 6th bid to get us in under this simulation.

The thing I am most happy about is that my cracked sidewalks table now pops up as a table on muscoop!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

In our matchup with LSU, did you account for Craig Victor being a midseason transfer? He will not be eligible to play against us. Don't know if that changes that to a W or not.

[PGsHeroes32]

Since when is the BET a double loss elimination tourney?

[Mu2323]

The same time the NIT moved to triple elimination lol