Biggest Surprise/Disappointment so Far

[WashDCWarrior]

LastWarrior and Rocky Warrior got me thinking a little about the planned offensive production increase this year vs. last.  Assuming 84 ppg is a goal, how do you envision the scoring distribution to look?  Last year, the team averaged 75.0 points per game.  The total of the individual players scoring was 80.3.  The difference was due to players not seeing the floor in evergame.  (i.e. Matthews and Amoroso had significant contributions when they played, but didn't see action in a number of games)  Assuming last year's ratio of 80.3:75.0, our players averages need to total 90.0 for us to score 84 ppg.

Here's my prediction.  Thoughts? (last year's ppg in parenthesis)

James 19 (15.3)
Matthews 15 (9.0)
McNeal 14 (11.1)
Fitz 9 (5.3)
Hayward 7
Barro 7 (4.4)
Cubillan 5
Kinsella 5(1.2)
Lott 4 (3.1)
Blackledge 3
Burke 1.5 (0.8
Brice 0.5 (0.0)

I compared my pre-season point predictions to current statistics to determine how surprising or disappointing a players season has been so far.  I added a correction factor since the total of player averages is 80.1, not 90.0 as assumed.  This means the rankings are based on how players are performing versus expectations, but doesn't take into account how the overall team is doing.  Granted this is only based on scoring, but it's interesting to look at players compared to predictions.  Let me know how these rankings compare to your intuitive feeling on how the players are doing.

Ordered from the biggest positive surprise to the biggest disappointment

Cubillan +2.6
James +2.2
McNeal +1.7
Lott +1.1
Kuphall +1.1*
Hayward +0.8
Blackledge +0.4
Barro +0.3
Burke +0.2
Brice -0.5
Matthews -1.7
Fitzgerald -1.9
Kinsella -5.0

*not projected in initial rankings

[drunken midget]

well i cant rank Kinsella as a disappoinment. Every time he pulls the uniform on and doesnt break/pull/tear something its a surprise, or at least a bonus.

Cubillan is my #1 surprise followed by Lott.

Fitz by #1 on the down side...and maybe my only disappointment at this time, other than our FT shooting.

[Mayor McCheese]

my biggest suprise is Barro, not by scoring.... just with improvement (last year he still looked lost... I remember him sometimes standing out of bounds, waiting to catch a pass), I don't really have a dissapointment, except in the rest of the Big East, starting to look like the Medium East

[WashDCWarrior]

One thing I pulled out immediatley is that all 3 newcomers have exceeded my initial projections.  Considering how early in the season we are, that's a good sign for things to come.

[rocky_warrior]

Heh...Spiral's not the only one with too much time on his hands today 

Interesting numbers.  I think we can safely remove Kinsella from the equation alltogether.  Nonetheless, even with him the pluses (10.1) are greater than the minuses (9.1), which may help explain why we're all pleasantly surprised by the team thus far (ok...maybe not all)

As for my intuitive feeling, Kuphall is pretty high on that list for not having much PT.  I don't think he has enough minutes to be counted in the equation.  Also, I'm not sure I'd have as much positive on Hayward.  I love that he's been a great rebounder, and getting the putbacks (surprises!), but I'd rather he was knocking down 3s at a good clip.

I think Cubillan being the biggest positive surprise is accurate, and Kinsella being the biggest disappointment (thought not his fault) is spot on.  The rest of the "rankings" seem pretty accurate too.  Way to dig back into the archives!

[WashDCWarrior]

my biggest suprise is Barro, not by scoring.... just with improvement (last year he still looked lost... I remember him sometimes standing out of bounds, waiting to catch a pass), I don't really have a dissapointment, except in the rest of the Big East, starting to look like the Medium East

Thanks, I realized I'd left Barro off the list.  He came in at a +0.3

[WashDCWarrior]

As for my intuitive feeling, Kuphall is pretty high on that list for not having much PT.

Kuphall wasn't accounted for in the initial projections, so he's basically a surprise, because I didn't know he existed.  I wouldn't put any stock in his ranking.

[spiral97]

Heh...Spiral's not the only one with too much time on his hands today 

not much time actually.. I just MAKE time for MU b-ball talk  

[spiral97]

Ordered from the biggest positive surprise to the biggest disappointment

Cubillan +2.6
James +2.2
McNeal +1.7
Lott +1.1
Kuphall +1.1*
Hayward +0.8
Blackledge +0.4
Barro +0.3
Burke +0.2
Brice -0.5
Matthews -1.7
Fitzgerald -1.9
Kinsella -5.0

These are compared to your pre-season predictions and only based on scoring.. how would you rank the players as a whole (all things considered) against: a.) themselves before this season and b.) their teammates currently?

[Big Papi]

My biggest positive surprise is the play of Cubillan and Trend.  I expected only 5 to 7 minutes for Cubillan with little to no impact and no minutes for Trend.  I am quite pleased with their play.

My biggest surprise as a disappiontment is Hayward and Kinsella.  I expected Hayward to be a very good outside shooter and he has not shown that.  I know he missed valuable time but that is not an excuse.  I expected 10 plus minutes from Kinsella and well I guess that ship has passed.  There is no way he can get himself back into shape and be productive.  Too many guys have passed him up.

[WashDCWarrior]

My biggest surprises have been Ooze and Cubillan.  Ooze has established himself as a consistent big man who will allow the team to go as far as the guards can take it.  At the beginning of the year I felt our frontcourt would be a detriment to the team, but now I'd rank it as a break-even.  I was only looking for Cubillan to play when James needed a breather and hoped we wouldn't be lost with him on the court.  Obviously he's much more than that.

Taking Kinsella out of the equation, I'm going with Matthews on the other end of the spectrum.  Not so much that he's been disappointing, but I think there's a bigger gap between how he's playing and his potential than any other player on the team.  Looking for great things from him.

[SoCalstu09]

McNeal is the biggest surprise for me. His aggressiveness continues to lift the team out of lulls and he seems to be a much better rebounder (offensive) and has a better midrange shot.

Wesley isnt a disappointment as much as he has not made as big of contributions in the last few games as the other two or three guards (if you count Cubillan). Jerel with 4 stls a game and James with 18ppg is tough to keep up with.

Biggest disappointment for me is Burke. I saw him at Madness and just thought this dude is HUGE, which will help us against big fools like Gray and Butch. However, he always looks lazy out there and not very aggressive. Hopefully we can get some good contributions from him later, since Kinsella is out.

[State]

Biggest Surprise...our ability to adjust to the game/opponent.  
Disappointment...our inability to not play at the level of our compettion.

Surprise...Cubillan
Disappointment...Hayward (thought he'd be big time)

Surprise...James not at the point
Disappointment...James not at the point

Surprise...beating Duke.
Disappointment...games leading up to Duke.

Surprise...Crean's coaching against Duke
Disappointment...Crean's semi-mullet this year.

Surprise...Rivals no longer called 'home'
Best Surprise...MuScoop is the place to be!!!

[spiral97]

Surprise...Rivals no longer called 'home'
Best Surprise...MuScoop is the place to be!!!

Amen!

[rocky_warrior]

Disappointment...our inability to not play at the level of our compettion.

Lots of negatives in that disadvantage, not sure I understand.  For Hillsdale and ISU, we played at the level of our opponent (i.e - bad).  For Detroit, Texas Tech, and Duke I think we clearly played above the level of our opponents (hence, we won).  So...are you saying we should go back to playing at the level of our opponent?

Disappointment...Crean's semi-mullet this year.

Hah...I hadn't noticed that, I'll have to go back and look at the game recordings

[spiral97]

I think State meant that once we get up by 7-8 points we just kinda match pace with the opponent rather than playing like we're down by 7-8 and continuing to distance ourselves from them (one of our perennial issues that I wish we would get better about too).

I felt like we played like that (matching pace) in the Texas Tech game and in some earlier games but against Duke I think we played HARD the entire time.  The only reason we started to break pace with them at the end is because they seemed to get worn out at the pace we played.

[HoopDreams]

I expected Hayward to be a very good outside shooter and he has not shown that.  I know he missed valuable time but that is not an excuse.

Surprise...Cubillan
Disappointment...Hayward (thought he'd be big time)

Personally, I am not worried about Lazar. I think it is a little early to make a judgement on what his contribution will be on this team. I think he has proven a few things so far...he is good around the rim, can rebound, and can shoot. He also, while not making huge plays on defense, is still present. He may lack a little lateral quickness, but I feel he has quick hands which is why he is able to get steals. I think he will grow in confidence offensively and simply needs more touches and shots. While he seems a little uncomfortable or unconfident offensively, but he has shown some versatility. I think with more minutes he will grow into our offense and become an important part on this team. As far as this team goes our "4" position seems to be a little up in the air. We have three guards who drive and while ball movement seems to be improving as the season progresses I think we could do a better job looking for the open man (whether Lazar, Fitz, or whoever is playing downlow). I think Lazar is a smart player and will only improve with time...just give him the ball.

[rocky_warrior]

I think Lazar is a smart player and will only improve with time...just give him the ball.

Agreed...I was hesitant to list him as a disappointment for that reason.  He was billed as quite the 3pt shooter, so I'm surprised he's only hit 4 of 13 3pt attempts.  I expect him to be eventually be a big offensive threat though, and only practice (what he missed) and PT will get him to that point.

[MUCHI814]

I'm gonna have to agree also that Hayward's 3pt shooting has been a bit disappointing, its still very early though along with Fitzgerald's low number of attempts, however Cubillan's outside shooting has seemed to ease much of the disappointment.