Lunardi Bracketology

[tower912]

Fair enough.   Kentucky-like may be hyperbolic.    But they have to be good.    Duane, JJJ, Sandy, Wally, and Luke as a starting 5 doesn't exactly strike fear in opponents' hearts.

[wadesworld]

Fair enough.   Kentucky-like may be hyperbolic.    But they have to be good.    Duane, JJJ, Sandy, Wally, and Luke as a starting 5 doesn't exactly strike fear in opponents' hearts.

Absolutely.  I expect all 5 of the freshman to be contributors in their own way.  I think Henry will be the only one whose numbers look really impressive in the box score (at least a 12 and 5 guy in my opinion), but I think Carter will run the point offensively closer to what Cadougan did than to what Derrick did (despite expecting only 5-6 ppg and maybe 3-4 apg, but the offense will flow better this year), and I think Haniif will be a controlled version of Juan (a 5, 3, and 3 kind of guy).  Sacar (3 and 3 boards) and Matt (3 and 4) will provide nice backup minutes.

[tower912]

That is 29 points.   You are anticipating getting 45 PPG from the upperclassmen.    The frosh had better give a lot more than that. 

[swoopem]

That is 29 points.   You are anticipating getting 45 PPG from the upperclassmen.    The frosh had better give a lot more than that.

I think Duane can/should average 15, Luke 13, Trey J 10, and then the Sandy/Wally combo better average 7 between them. That's 45

Edit: last year Duane averaged 11.9 (I'm calling that 12), Luke 11 (with a bad shoulder and no one else to help on the block), JJJ 7.3, and Sandy 3.8 (we'll call that 4). It is not unrealistic at all to think that they can make a little bit of a jump and improve their games by basically 3 points each. They all are going to get more playing time, more shots, hopefully have a better PG distributing the rock, plus a full year under Wojo. I think this should be expected. 

[tower912]

I wish I could get more optimistic about this team.   Maybe the Italy trip will help.

[wadesworld]

That is 29 points.   You are anticipating getting 45 PPG from the upperclassmen.    The frosh had better give a lot more than that.

I expect Luke and Duane to average 29 between them so that leaves 16 to get between Sandy, JJJ, and Wally. I don't think that's hard to fathom at all. Plus I think Henry's 12 is the absolute floor. I expect 13-14 per game from Henry.

[CTWarrior]

I wish I could get more optimistic about this team.   Maybe the Italy trip will help.

It seems to be a fool's errand to predict what we are going to be until we actually start playing.  We really have no realistic idea of how good any of the newcomers are going to be, and we only have 4 guys who played minutes last year for us returning and all of them were spotty, great a times awful at others.  I think our window is anywhere from the 30th best team in the country to the 130th.  It has been so long since we've seen a Marquette freshman be an above average high-D1 contributor that it is hard for me to be confident that we'll get great play from them this year.
I hope for the NCAA, but I really just hope we are competitive night in and night out.

[Dawson Rental]

Okay, HUGE asterisk.  Bucky a #4???  C'mon man.

The last time I thought that the Vadgers lost too much experience to have a serious chance to contend was two years ago.  As a result, I tend to give them more than some benefit of the doubt.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If we have the 2nd best player in college basketball and one of the top 20 players ever to play at Marquette plus 2 other All Big East caliber players (Luke and Duane), we are a serious Final Four contender.

Henry will need to be as good as, say, a guy like Jamil Wilson and Carter will need to be as good as a guy like Junior Cadougan and we're dancing.

People who continue to site the need for our freshman to be "as good as Kentucky's" in order for us to make the NCAA Tournament are way, way overboard.  Kentucky's freshman led them to a 38-0 start to their season.  They were one of the best teams in the history of college basketball.  We do not need them to be anywhere near as good as Kentucky's freshman or Jahlil Okafor or even Dominic James.  Those caliber players lead top 5-10 teams in the country.  We need to be a top (roughly) 40 team in the country.

It was a bit of an exaggeration. Henry could be better than Jamil Wilson but I have my doubts about Carter being as good as Junior Cadougan. I am optimistic about Carter, but all we really know about him is that he is a four star freshmen (who is ranked lower than Cadougan was) who has struggled adjusting to the level of play in practice. I am hopeful that he will be solid but there is no evidence of that. I also don't consider Duane to  be an all Big East level player. He is very good. But there are about five to eight guards in the Big East that I would put at his level or better. And Luke might be an all big east Center but that's mostly because the best centers in the conference all graduated last year.

I don't think the predictions for Henry are that off. But I think we vastly overestimate how good the rest of our recruiting class is and how good our returning players are. We were a team ranked outside the top 100 in both RPI and KenPom last year with a losing record. From that team we lost over 50% of our scoring, rebounding, assists, and three point shooting. We bring in a great recruiting class but one that is ranked outside the top 10 by most (if not all services). On paper, we aren't getting to the NCAA. NIT might even be a stretch.

Fortunately, basketball isn't played on paper. I am optimistic that our newcomers will exceed expectations and Wojo will draw out some great development from our returners and get us back to the dance. But we shouldn't act like making the NCAA will be a given for us. If Wojo gets us in  it will be a significant feat. Hell, if Wojo gets us to the NIT it would be meeting expectations.

[brewcity77]

They will be a six seed or better.

And we will be a 9 seed or better.

Been saying as much for a while.

I'd take that bet. The latter may be possible, but I'm not buying the former at all.

[ChicosBailBonds]

A three seed...yeah, could be.  I'm thinking more like a 4 seed.

[jsglow]

One of the things I struggle with is the notion that we need to replace this percentage of our scoring or that percentage of our rebounding.  Of course we do.  And at at least 3 of the 5 positions it'll be a significant upgrade in talent, albeit young and inexperienced.

Luke (this year) > Luke (last year)
Henry > Juan
Duane (this year) > Duane (last year)
Carlino > JjJ/Sandy/Wally
Derrick ? Traci
Bench (this year) > Bench (last year)

And I'd add that it's entirely possible that Traci might be a significant upgrade talent wise from D. Wilson immediately.  I'd also add that the incremental improvement in the first three slots might alone carry us if the PG position is simply 'good enough'.  I'm personally optimistic.

[Galway Eagle]

It was a bit of an exaggeration. Henry could be better than Jamil Wilson but I have my doubts about Carter being as good as Junior Cadougan. I am optimistic about Carter, but all we really know about him is that he is a four star freshmen (who is ranked lower than Cadougan was) who has struggled adjusting to the level of play in practice. I am hopeful that he will be solid but there is no evidence of that. I also don't consider Duane to  be an all Big East level player. He is very good. But there are about five to eight guards in the Big East that I would put at his level or better. And Luke might be an all big east Center but that's mostly because the best centers in the conference all graduated last year.

I don't think the predictions for Henry are that off. But I think we vastly overestimate how good the rest of our recruiting class is and how good our returning players are. We were a team ranked outside the top 100 in both RPI and KenPom last year with a losing record. From that team we lost over 50% of our scoring, rebounding, assists, and three point shooting. We bring in a great recruiting class but one that is ranked outside the top 10 by most (if not all services). On paper, we aren't getting to the NCAA. NIT might even be a stretch.

Fortunately, basketball isn't played on paper. I am optimistic that our newcomers will exceed expectations and Wojo will draw out some great development from our returners and get us back to the dance. But we shouldn't act like making the NCAA will be a given for us. If Wojo gets us in  it will be a significant feat. Hell, if Wojo gets us to the NIT it would be meeting expectations.

If we had kept our original class with Nick N over Traci would you be less concerned? What if Traci was rated top 100 unanimously instead of just #90 on rivals?

One thing I think we underestimate is that our 2013 class was also a top 10 class (luke for Deonte would've kept us there) and that class now has three years of experience.

With Duane here's how I'd rank the 2 guards so I have to disagree about how many are better than him (and I personally think Duane improves this year where whitehead flatlines)

1. DSR
2. Archidiacono
3. Dunham
4. Whitehead
5. Duane Wilson
6. Miles Davis
7. Milliken
8. Lindsey
9. Currington
10. Miles Stewart

[MU82]

11 seed? Done deal!

And we will so kill Baylor!

After that, as we all know, it's a crapshoot.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

With Duane here's how I'd rank the 2 guards so I have to disagree about how many are better than him (and I personally think Duane improves this year where whitehead flatlines)

1. DSR
2. Archidiacono
3. Dunham
4. Whitehead
5. Duane Wilson
6. Miles Davis
7. Milliken
8. Lindsey
9. Currington
10. Miles Stewart

I didn't just look at 2 guards, I looked at guards in general. I have the following at Duane's level or above

Jalen Brunson
Ryan Arcidiacono
Josh Hart
Tyler Lewis
Kellen Dunham
D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera
Myles Davis
Maurice Watson Jr.
Kris Dunn
Duane Wilson
Isaiah Whitehead
Billy Garrett Jr.

In that list of 12, I would put Duane somewhere between 5th and 9th.

[Brewtown Andy]

Henry will need to be as good as, say, a guy like Jamil Wilson and Carter will need to be as good as a guy like Junior Cadougan and we're dancing.

Jamil's senior year was 12 points, six rebounds, 2 and a half assists, and half a block per game.

That team missed the NCAA tournament, and not by a small margin.

[wadesworld]

Jamil's senior year was 12 points, six rebounds, 2 and a half assists, and half a block per game.

That team missed the NCAA tournament, and not by a small margin.

That team had a lot less talent on the roster than this year's team.

[Nukem2]

That team had a lot less talent on the roster than this year's team.

That team simply had no backcourt.  Frontcourt was loaded.

[Herman Cain]

I look at every season as a fresh start. 

My sense is that Luke and Duane are going to be very solid upper level Big East players.  JJJ has the ability to be an impact player but he needs to show more consistency. I would like to see more games like  he had at home versus Villanova.  Sandy has to demonstrate he has the physicality to compete in the Big East, the ability is there. Wally has to demonstrate that he can deliver solid Big East level minutes. So far he has shown he is a strong player in practice, lets hope it translates to games.

I don't have much expectation for any of the freshman. Henry will get lots of minutes, however he will be going up against strong competition and it will be a learning process.The rest  of the freshman also need to learn the college game. I think all will have moments when they show their potential.  We are lucky we have the Italy trip this year. It will really benefit the freshman.

I think the coaching will be improved which means we may be on the positive side of a few more  close games  . Wojo understands what the Big East is all about now and will adjust accordingly.

I am looking at 9-4 non conference and 6-12 in conference. Note,this is based on low expectations for Henry. I think we will get a good view of  the nature of his ability In the Iowa, Wisconsin, and LSU, /NC State games which could change my view.

[wadesworld]

That team simply had no backcourt.  Frontcourt was loaded.

Depends on how you define "loaded."  Davante was a very good college basketball player, no doubt about that.  OTule was a very big guy?  And Jamil looked like he could be really good but...average I would say.  To be honest, we needed a fairly large upgrade at 3 of 5 positions.  Jamil would've been just fine as a 4th or 5th player in the starting 5.  As the 2nd?  Not so good.

Luke, Hank, Matt, Anim should be better than OTule, Gardner, Wilson, Steve.  Carter, Cheatham, Wilson, JJJ, Wally, Cohen, and Anim should be far better than Mayo, Thomas, Wilson, a freshman JJJ, Juan, and Dawson.

[jsglow]

I look at every season as a fresh start. 

I am looking at 9-4 non conference and 6-12 in conference. Note,this is based on low expectations for Henry. I think we will get a good view of  the nature of his ability In the Iowa, Wisconsin, and LSU, /NC State games which could change my view.

2, count 'em 2 more conference wins than last year?  I'd view that as an unmitigated disaster. 

We're replacing Juan, Matt and Derrick with Henry, possibly JjJ and Traci. Of the former only one was a legitimate high D-1 starter.  Plus Luke and Duane should both be much improved.  And low expectations for Henry?  He's played high level international ball for years against top competition.  I'm trusting that he'll be a match-up nightmare for most opposing BEast coaches.  Plus there were long stretches last year where we dressed 6 or 7 healthy scholarship players and played without a true center until mid December.  If Wojo can't make significantly more progress than you've suggested......

[Dawson Rental]

2, count 'em 2 more conference wins than last year?  I'd view that as an unmitigated disaster. 

We're replacing Juan, Matt and Derrick with Henry, possibly JjJ and Traci. Of the former only one was a legitimate high D-1 starter.  Plus Luke and Duane should both be much improved.  And low expectations for Henry?  He's played high level international ball for years against top competition.  I'm trusting that he'll be a match-up nightmare for most opposing BEast coaches.  Plus there were long stretches last year where we dressed 6 or 7 healthy scholarship players and played without a true center until mid December.  If Wojo can't make significantly more progress than you've suggested......

Well put.  i gotta agree.

[bilsu]

2, count 'em 2 more conference wins than last year?  I'd view that as an unmitigated disaster. 

We're replacing Juan, Matt and Derrick with Henry, possibly JjJ and Traci. Of the former only one was a legitimate high D-1 starter.  Plus Luke and Duane should both be much improved.  And low expectations for Henry?  He's played high level international ball for years against top competition.  I'm trusting that he'll be a match-up nightmare for most opposing BEast coaches.  Plus there were long stretches last year where we dressed 6 or 7 healthy scholarship players and played without a true center until mid December.  If Wojo can't make significantly more progress than you've suggested......

Especially, when you consider that Matt had a serious concussion. Who knows without that concussion last years team might of went 6-12. Therefore, 6-12 this year would not be an actual improvement.