Big East Expansion?

[WarriorFan]

Why are people advocating for expansion when Fox Sports isn't going to throw more money into the coffers?

I guess I'm assuming - perhaps too early - that Fox reneges and asks to renegotiate.  In which case it will be "Whoever Fox wants".

[ChicosBailBonds]

I guess I'm assuming - perhaps too early - that Fox reneges and asks to renegotiate.  In which case it will be "Whoever Fox wants".

They have a contract to broadcast games for the next decade.   The conference exists, the 10 schools are there, the league was #1 or #2 in the country last year, etc, etc.  There is nothing for Fox to renege on.  There is no legal out, nor is anyone talking of that on their side.  That being said, they overpaid, but that's the name of the game still.  Fox has to overpay for just about everything right now.

Last week they bought the NHRA rights from ESPN.   Totally overpaid, but they need content. I explained this a few years ago when the whole thing came up. They were going to lose money for quite some time because ESPN can drive up the costs and let Fox bid higher to take properties that aren't worth the value.  Colin Cowherd is the latest example.

[MU111]

Agreeing with Chicos on this one.  We have a good group of 10, so why expand if it's just going to mean more schools splitting the same pot of money?  With that said, anyone but Dayton.

[Litehouse]

I'd say no to expansion for the current TV contract.  There's no point in bringing in more mouths to feed.

In 10 years there might be some more shake-up in the football conferences and some quality bball programs might get left out for good.  Schools like Memphis and UConn might finally decide football isn't worth it and switch to our model.  Who knows, schools like Kansas and Iowa State might even be options if the Big 12 falls apart.

[drewm88]

I'm with Chicos. Why start splitting the same money more ways? Similar to 03, the only way I consider expansion is in the completely unlikely event that ND wants back in or UConn wants to go FCS with football and come back. Both of those are worth it for the long term benefit, but since neither are going to happen, 10 it is.

[Spotcheck Billy]

interesting timing, today's article on BIG1? expansion http://www.btpowerhouse.com/2015/7/21/8911733/big-ten-expansion-would-be-beneficial-down-the-road

The writer is all for them raiding the ACC but he doesn't mention the $50,000,000 exit fee at all.

[Babybluejeans]

There's only ONE thing that will ultimately make the Big East a conference that grabs people attention: winning.

TV networks, expansion, TV markets, rivalries, all that stuff is ancillary to having a consistent set of teams consistently winning in March. That's it.

[slingkong]

ABD

ABD/SLU

[GoldenWarrior11]

The Fox contract that we signed in 2013, the 12-year/10 school $500 million contract, stipulated that we could add two schools to get to 12 and the deal would be amended to $600 million - adding potentially $50 million per new school.

From a NY Times article when the deal broke:
Fox won them over with a 12-year deal worth about $500 million, according to reports. But the contract could spike to $600 million if the conference grows to a dozen teams, according to two people briefed on the contract but not authorized to speak publicly about its terms.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/12/sports/ncaabasketball/fox-sports-and-new-big-east-are-teaming-up.html?_r=0

If team(s) are added, we wouldn't be diluting the pot - we would just be adding to it.

[GGGG]

But my guess is that Fox didn't simply say "go to 12 and we will pay you more."  I'm sure they have a say in it.  And I can't really see any candidate to get all excited about.  No harm in waiting to see how things pan out in the next few years. 

[mu03eng]

The Fox contract that we signed in 2013, the 12-year/10 school $500 million contract, stipulated that we could add two schools to get to 12 and the deal would be amended to $600 million - adding potentially $50 million per new school.

From a NY Times article when the deal broke:
Fox won them over with a 12-year deal worth about $500 million, according to reports. But the contract could spike to $600 million if the conference grows to a dozen teams, according to two people briefed on the contract but not authorized to speak publicly about its terms.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/12/sports/ncaabasketball/fox-sports-and-new-big-east-are-teaming-up.html?_r=0

If team(s) are added, we wouldn't be diluting the pot - we would just be adding to it.

So why would we want to expand?  Assuming that is a locked in revenue number and Fox has no ability to negotiate it down, that is a net neutral for the current teams plus less tv availability.  No incentive to expand

[GoldenWarrior11]

There could, conceivably, be several reasons that the Presidents and/or Fox would like to expand.

1.  Attendance.  Attendance at the Big East tournament actually went down last season (15,300 in championship game in 2014 to 13,400 last year).  Even though it was only the second season of the new league, the schools certainly don't want attendance to be trending downward at the world's greatest arena.  Acquiring a school that travels really well and sells out its home games consistently (like a Dayton) will only get more fans to come and pay to see the games.

2.  Increase the odds of getting tournament teams.  We still don't know how many schools we will average getting into the tournament each year (6 BE teams in tournament in 2015, 4 teams in 2014).  Perhaps 5 is a good estimate from year-to-year.  However, going to 12, or 14, etc., bumps up the number of teams you are likely to put in (assuming they aren't bottom dwellers each year.

3.  Increase market size.  Currently, all the Big East schools are located in large metropolitan areas (New York, Philadelphia, Washington D.C., Chicago, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Omaha, Newark, Providence).  Adding a school like SLU gives you access to Saint Louis, Duquesne gives you Pittsburgh, Richmond/VCU would give you Richmond, etc.  Getting other schools in other big cities only increases your viewership and following.

I'm not promoting any school(s) for expansion, but I do think the league and Fox should be open-minded about the prospect of expanding.  We don't want to be left behind the power conferences in basketball.

[Dawson Rental]

There are a lot of candidates, but there seems to be issues with almost all of them. I would rank the candidates:

1. UConn
2. Gonzaga
3. Memphis
4. VCU
5. Cincinnati
6. BYU
7. UMass
8. Wichita State
9. Temple
10. Dayton
11. Boston University
12. St. Louis
13. Richmond

I know people care about things like schools being private, being basketball only, and being geographically close. I don't. At all. There are really only 2 things that matter:

How many eyeballs do they bring?
How good are they at basketball?

As long as a team does those two things, everything else will fall into place.

St Louis, Richmond, and Boston U bring a lot of eyeballs (new media markets) but are really bad at basketball.

Temple and Dayton are decent at basketball but don't bring new media markets (X and NOVA).

Wichita State is good at basketball and brings a new media market but its a tiny one.

The top 7 are the ones you want to look at IMHO. The top 6 are very good at basketball and UMass is decent. All of them bring new large media markets (except Cincy but their fanbase and basketball chops make them worth it).

Don't know if you've heard, but Shaka left VCU.

1, 3, 12, and 13 are realistic IMO.  Which is why expansion ain't coming to a league near you soon.

UConn and Memphis will have to give up dreams of football glory which is going to happen, but not anytime soon.  It will take a little time for the cost of competing in the coming world of NCAA Division I football to become apparent.  I guess when that happens UMass will be in that group , as well, just not as desirable for mens' basketball, yet, and probably then, too.

St. Louis and Richmond, you have work to do.

Wichita State?  I don't see the eastern teams agreeing to go another inch west.

[GGGG]

I think another potential member IF they get their basketball act together is Denver.  Another major market, private school, and already a member of the conference in lacrosse.

Of course, that's a big if...

[Galway Eagle]

Thoughts on Davidson or Belmont?

[Dawson Rental]

Before we expand, can we work on expelling DePaul first?

Realistically, this ain't gonna happen.  I guess I'm just banging my head on the desk trying to find ways to convince them to stop riding everyone else' coattails for mens' basketball.  Maybe a rumor of switching them out for St. Louis could do that.  With the resources the Big East provides, I could see St. Louis taking it up a notch.

[Galway Eagle]

Before we expand, can we work on expelling DePaul first?

Realistically, this ain't gonna happen.  I guess I'm just banging my head on the desk trying to find ways to convince them to stop riding everyone else' coattails for mens' basketball.  Maybe a rumor of switching them out for St. Louis could do that.  With the resources the Big East provides, I could see St. Louis taking it up a notch.

Having a presence in Chicago is really important. And their new arena will be viewed as beneficial as well. remember every conference needs a team to come in last, if our dumpster can still claim to have as much history as DePaul I'm ok with that.

[GooooMarquette]

I'm with Chicos. Why start splitting the same money more ways? Similar to 03, the only way I consider expansion is in the completely unlikely event that ND wants back in or UConn wants to go FCS with football and come back. Both of those are worth it for the long term benefit, but since neither are going to happen, 10 it is.

Agreed.  Absent ND or UConn agreeing to the right deal, there is no reason to expand under the current contract unless Fox offers us more money to do so...and that isn't happening.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I think another potential member IF they get their basketball act together is Denver.  Another major market, private school, and already a member of the conference in lacrosse.

Of course, that's a big if...

Sultan, I have no information at all and it's purely speculation, but I could see when the BE was courting them for lacrosse this came up with "if we expand for other sports you would be first in line."

[GoldenWarrior11]

Thoughts on Davidson or Belmont?

Davidson is extremely small by Big East standards (under 2,000 students) and doesn't share the same academics as the Big East schools.  Belmont doesn't bring the basketball history (just went Division 1 in the mid-90's).  Both, however, have had tremendous success in each of their respective conference(s) over the past decade and are interesting long-term candidates.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Sultan, I have no information at all and it's purely speculation, but I could see when the BE was courting them for lacrosse this came up with "if we expand for other sports you would be first in line."

Denver was added for men's lacrosse and men's lacrosse alone.  They are one of the top lacrosse programs in the country and the conference needed to get to six members to get an automatic bid to the tournament.  They have no shot at becoming a full-member.  They have only three NCAA tournament appearances in their program's history.

[GGGG]

I don't want to say "no shot," because who would have thought Butler would be where they are now?  But they have to take significant steps and I'm not sure they can.

[Dawson Rental]

Thoughts on Davidson or Belmont?

Davidson some nice recent success, and they've moved up in competition to the Atlantic 10, so hopefully that will develop them more.

Then again they have an arena that holds around 5,200 in a town of under 11,000 and an undergraduate population of 1,850.  And it is located in the same state as North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest, and North Carolina-Charlotte.  Big time basketball may be a bit daunting under the circumstances, and then how much of a viewership increase can you reasonably expect? 

[Dawson Rental]

I don't want to say "no shot," because who would have thought Butler would be where they are now?  But they have to take significant steps and I'm not sure they can.

Denver is a significant step westwards, but it ain't Gonzaga.  It would add a very nice market with much less competition for eyeballs then most new markets would have.  More post graduate students then undergrads indicates great academics.  It's a private school.

[GoldenWarrior11]

I know Dayton rubs some folks here the wrong way, but their arena seats 13,500 people, and they consistently get 12k/13k at home games.  That is really huge.  They have also been to 16 NCAA tournaments and travel extremely well.  Archie Miller has really elevated their level of play over the past few seasons.

Saint Louis seats 10,600 people, but really fell off last year.  They were selling the place out when they were good a few years ago.  I have a feeling that if Rick was still alive then SLU would be in the conference right now.