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Author Topic: 2015 Non-conference Schedule  (Read 40284 times)

GGGG

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #25 on: July 12, 2015, 07:08:27 PM »
Using RPI Wizard:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html

Replacing the three RPI >300: Nebraska Omaha (loss) (300), Alabama A&M (330), North Dakota (310), and Morgan State (337) with Portland State (loss) (221), Lamar (224), Hampton (226), and North Texas (227):

We were: RPI 147, SOS 31
We would have been: RPI 121, SOS 16

Replacing the same slate with more "local" buy games using the theory that they would be easier to schedule:  Green Bay (loss) (60), UWM (209), IPFW (215) IUPUI (258): RPI 115, SOS 14. 

A tidbit that I've been a proponent of if we've already failed to schedule "better bad" teams, is at least replacing the very worst with a Division II team.  Wouldn't "count" on a tournament resume, would probably draw the same and cost the same or less.  Just taking out the worst team, Morgan State and their 337 RPI, to theoretically replace with a Division II opponent that doesn't count, raises the RPI nine places to 138 and the SOS 12 places to 19.   

IIRC, pretending Grambling was replaced with a DII opponent in 2013 would have raised our SOS by 24 places.


Thank you.  That is more significant than I thought it would be.

brewcity77

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #26 on: July 12, 2015, 07:35:37 PM »

Thank you.  That is more significant than I thought it would be.

With Marquette not being close to the bubble, they may not be the best example. Let's look at Miami from last year:

Miami Hurricanes
Record: 21-12 (10-8 ACC)
RPI: 65
SOS: 71
Pros: 6 Top-100 wins, Beat #6 Duke, #39 NC State
Cons: 10 wins v sub-200 teams, 5-4 v 100-200
Worst Wins: 331 Savannah State, 298 Charleston, 275 South Alabama, 255 Howard

So what if we replaced Miami's four worst cupcakes with teams in the 185-215 range? Here are the changes:

255 Howard Out > 185 Northern Illinois In
275 South Alabama Out > 195 UMES In
298 Charleston Out > 205 Detroit In
331 Savannah State Out > 215 IPFW In

Assuming all wins, we get...

Record 21-12 (10-8 ACC)
RPI: 50
SOS: 47

Those are NCAA tourney team numbers. By changing four buy games to teams in the 185-215 range, Miami likely would have been a tourney team. Instead they went to the NIT. This stuff matters.

Especially when you consider how much worse these teams that we are playing are likely to be than Miami's four worst teams. Win 21 games, go 10-8 in the Big East, and that still may not be enough because of how bad our cupcakes are.

brewcity77

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #27 on: July 12, 2015, 07:45:21 PM »
In fact, VT's 2010-2011 season is a perfect example of this.  Their problem wasn't not scheduling a tough enough out of conference schedule.  They played a very tough non-conference schedule.  They played at Kansas State, Oklahoma State (neutral), UNLV (neutral), Purdue, Penn State, and Mississippi State (neutral).  That's 6 out of 13 non-conference games against high major opponents.  There were plenty opportunities for them to prove that they deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament field, especially considering they then played an ACC conference schedule.  Their problem?  They didn't win a whole lot of those games where they had an opportunity to prove they belonged in the field.  They beat Duke at home that year, but beyond that their only other 2 wins against NCAA Tournament teams were against an FSU team that was seeded 10th.

To get into the NCAA Tournament you have to beat quality opponents.  Winning just 3 games against NCAA Tournament teams in a nearly 30 game regular season no matter how tough your non-conference schedule is.  Beating teams with an RPI of 200-250 does very little to boost a team into the NCAA Tournament.

Disagree. Replace their sub-275 wins (they had 4 of those) with teams in the 175-225 range and they would have made the tournament. Va Tech had 4 top-50 and 8 top-100 wins. That's plenty to get in. Their schedule dragged them out of a bid. That would have lifted their SOS and RPI both into the top-50. Seth would have been dancing and it's entirely possible he'd still be coaching there.

4everwarriors

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #28 on: July 12, 2015, 08:50:49 PM »
Is the Wisco game at breakfast time again?



That depends on what time y'all normally eat yo flapjacks, biscuits and gravy, hey?
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GooooMarquette

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #29 on: July 12, 2015, 09:55:22 PM »
See: Big East conference. We play in it. 60% of our teams were in the tourney. 12 games. Compared to 6 against non-tourney teams. That gives us 16 games against tourney teams. That is MORE than enough. Over 50% of our schedule. We need some easy wins.

Yeah, it'd be awesome if we could win most of those games.  But since we might not, more chances would be better than less.


We R Final Four

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #30 on: July 12, 2015, 09:59:39 PM »
Wisky is Dec 12th

wadesworld

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #31 on: July 12, 2015, 10:03:02 PM »
Yeah, it'd be awesome if we could win most of those games.  But since we might not, more chances would be better than less.

Sure, let's just schedule Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, UNC, Wisconsin, Louisville, Syracuse, Florida, Notre Dame, Texas, Virginia, Arizona, and Michigan State in hopes of beating 2 or 3 of them.  Our #1 strength of schedule is sure to carry us to the Tourney with our 12 wins each year.

Again, you need some easy wins in there.  If we have 15 games every year against NCAA Tournament teams like we did last year, that is more than enough to give us some quality wins.

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #32 on: July 12, 2015, 10:17:43 PM »
Sure, let's just schedule Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, UNC, Wisconsin, Louisville, Syracuse, Florida, Notre Dame, Texas, Virginia, Arizona, and Michigan State in hopes of beating 2 or 3 of them.  Our #1 strength of schedule is sure to carry us to the Tourney with our 12 wins each year.

Again, you need some easy wins in there.  If we have 15 games every year against NCAA Tournament teams like we did last year, that is more than enough to give us some quality wins.

First off, I never said to use EVERY open nonconference game for great teams.  Problem is, we are currently 0 for 5 in our attempts to get even ONE.

Yes, it's a balance.  And in the old BE, we had so many tough games we could have scheduled Grambling for every open nonconference slot.  The BE is still  good...but not good enough to do that.

brewcity77

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #33 on: July 12, 2015, 10:24:38 PM »
Sure, let's just schedule Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, UNC, Wisconsin, Louisville, Syracuse, Florida, Notre Dame, Texas, Virginia, Arizona, and Michigan State in hopes of beating 2 or 3 of them.  Our #1 strength of schedule is sure to carry us to the Tourney with our 12 wins each year.

Again, you need some easy wins in there.  If we have 15 games every year against NCAA Tournament teams like we did last year, that is more than enough to give us some quality wins.

This is usually my biggest issue with people that try to make the pro-cupcake argument. It's always the black or white, absolutes, Duke or Grambling mentality. No one is talking stupid like that. Look at the examples I gave for Miami: Northern Illinois, UMES, Detroit, IPFW. Are any of those unrealistic? No. Are any of them Duke/Virginia/UK like juggernauts? No. But they can be the types of teams that make the difference between earning a ticket to the Dance and playing the Not In Tournament. And even if you do get in, playing those teams will still hurt your seeding.

Looking at our current schedule, if the thought is Marquette will be a tourney team, the only way we play 15 tourney teams is if the Big East gets 6 teams and Wisconsin, Iowa, Belmont, LSU, and our second Legends opponent all make the tournament, or if the Big East gets 7 and three of those five make the tourney.

More likely, the Big East gets 5 and 2 of those listed miss out. So Marquette plays 10 tourney teams. That's not exactly a strong schedule. The heavy crapcake argument only works if we win 22+ games. Otherwise we're putting ourselves on the bubble and hoping that our opponents do well enough to boost our SOS.

wadesworld

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #34 on: July 12, 2015, 10:56:05 PM »
We played 17 games against NCAA Tournament teams last year.  This season it is looking like a fairly similar schedule.  53% of our games were against NCAA Tournament teams last year.  If you guys seriously think that us playing Grambling for an easy win is a problem with our scheduling then so be it.  Personally, I think you guys are worrying and complaining about something very unnecessary.  A SOS of 31 is never going to be the reason that MU is kept out of the NCAA Tournament.  31 is a very solid (not spectacular, but very solid) SOS.

We will just have to agree to disagree here.  Our schedule will be just fine.  It will come down to us beating some solid teams, just like it does for any and every other team in the country getting into the NCAA Tournament.  People can argue that the Big East schedule itself is no longer good enough, but the NCAA Selection Committee and the RPI both seem to disagree with this idea, given that we had the #2 RPI in the country last year and 60% of the teams in the conference (a higher percentage of teams than any other conference in the country) got into the NCAA Tournament.

The next time we miss the NCAA Tournament because of our schedule will be the first.  Until that happens I won't worry a whole lot about it.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2015, 10:58:33 PM by wadesworld »

brewcity77

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #35 on: July 12, 2015, 11:19:51 PM »
Last year we had 6 non-conference games against high-major opponents. Unless there are at least 2 surprises left in the remaining 3 games, that won't happen.

This year's SOS will likely not be as high as last year's based on what we currently know. If they give us a pleasant surprise with these last three and all of them are high-majors, or at least two high-majors and a quality cupcake (expected 125-175 range) we'll be in much better shape than it looks now. But right now, 40% of our known non-conference opponents are sub-300 teams and of the 4 high-majors, 3 have a decent chance at taking a step back this year (UW, ASU, NC State).

And again, this isn't just about RPI, it's also about selling tickets. STHs have dropped two years running. Attendance is down, and not just because the NCAA counted the game at the Al. We no longer have marquee games like Syracuse, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Pitt to draw fans. The only traditional Big East powers that will draw fans are Villanova and Georgetown. To offset that, we need to have non-conference games that will attract fans. This year, that's Iowa. That's it.

The 20-game home schedule certainly loses some luster if there's only one high-major home game in November and December. This new Big East is going to require more aggressive scheduling early in the season if we want to keep fans in the seats.

MUfan12

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #36 on: July 12, 2015, 11:29:41 PM »
And again, this isn't just about RPI, it's also about selling tickets. STHs have dropped two years running. Attendance is down, and not just because the NCAA counted the game at the Al. We no longer have marquee games like Syracuse, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Pitt to draw fans. The only traditional Big East powers that will draw fans are Villanova and Georgetown. To offset that, we need to have non-conference games that will attract fans. This year, that's Iowa. That's it.

The 20-game home schedule certainly loses some luster if there's only one high-major home game in November and December. This new Big East is going to require more aggressive scheduling early in the season if we want to keep fans in the seats.

Personally, I think this is the bigger concern than any RPI effect. Can't keep losing a good chunk of STH every year.

wadesworld

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #37 on: July 12, 2015, 11:35:13 PM »
Winning is the only thing that matters when it comes to our attendance.

brewcity77

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #38 on: July 13, 2015, 02:57:43 AM »
Winning is the only thing that matters when it comes to our attendance.

If this were true, schedule all cupcakes at home, stop playing non-conference tournaments, and apply to join the Horizon.

But it's not. Fans want to see a competitive team against the best opposition. Which means scheduling the best teams available in November and December to put us in the position to win in March.

GGGG

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #39 on: July 13, 2015, 08:17:33 AM »
Last year we had 6 non-conference games against high-major opponents. Unless there are at least 2 surprises left in the remaining 3 games, that won't happen.

This year's SOS will likely not be as high as last year's based on what we currently know. If they give us a pleasant surprise with these last three and all of them are high-majors, or at least two high-majors and a quality cupcake (expected 125-175 range) we'll be in much better shape than it looks now. But right now, 40% of our known non-conference opponents are sub-300 teams and of the 4 high-majors, 3 have a decent chance at taking a step back this year (UW, ASU, NC State).

And again, this isn't just about RPI, it's also about selling tickets. STHs have dropped two years running. Attendance is down, and not just because the NCAA counted the game at the Al. We no longer have marquee games like Syracuse, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Pitt to draw fans. The only traditional Big East powers that will draw fans are Villanova and Georgetown. To offset that, we need to have non-conference games that will attract fans. This year, that's Iowa. That's it.

The 20-game home schedule certainly loses some luster if there's only one high-major home game in November and December. This new Big East is going to require more aggressive scheduling early in the season if we want to keep fans in the seats.


Then they will have to play more games on the road.  Potentially against teams from the Missouri Valley and the like.  If people are OK with that, then so be it, but I do wonder if adding the likes of Northern Iowa to the schedule will have any impact on season tickets.

brewcity77

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #40 on: July 13, 2015, 08:36:24 AM »

Then they will have to play more games on the road.  Potentially against teams from the Missouri Valley and the like.  If people are OK with that, then so be it, but I do wonder if adding the likes of Northern Iowa to the schedule will have any impact on season tickets.

To the first part, yes, and I'm fine with that. I would rather a stronger schedule and 16-17 home games than a weak schedule with 18-19 home games and 5-6 sub-250 opponents.

To the second, any time you can market tourney teams and/or ranked teams I feel you'll increase fan interest. I think you're almost certain to draw more with a 25th ranked mid major than a team like Grambling. You also increase the chance of having the game on FS1 as opposed to FS2 or regional networks.

Galway Eagle

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #41 on: July 13, 2015, 08:39:29 AM »
To the first part, yes, and I'm fine with that. I would rather a stronger schedule and 16-17 home games than a weak schedule with 18-19 home games and 5-6 sub-250 opponents.

To the second, any time you can market tourney teams and/or ranked teams I feel you'll increase fan interest. I think you're almost certain to draw more with a 25th ranked mid major than a team like Grambling. You also increase the chance of having the game on FS1 as opposed to FS2 or regional networks.

Not sure that's true. I believe adding certain tournament teams might help but a few years ago we played Norfolk state and that game was nearly empty even though they were expected to run away with their conference.

Not everybody cares the way we all do following rpi and preseason predictions etc.
“More the knowledge, lesser the ego. Lesser the knowledge, more the ego.” Albert Einstein a note for some posters

brewcity77

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #42 on: July 13, 2015, 08:51:19 AM »
Not sure that's true. I believe adding certain tournament teams might help but a few years ago we played Norfolk state and that game was nearly empty even though they were expected to run away with their conference.

Not everybody cares the way we all do following rpi and preseason predictions etc.

Norfolk State was not expected to run away with their conference that year. Here's what I wrote about them in the preseason on Cracked Sidewalks as far as NSU expectations went:

Quote from: Cracked Sidewalks
Norfolk State (Home, Low-Major)
Last Year's RPI: 269
Three-Year RPI Average: 275
Key Returning Players: F Kyle O'Quinn (Sr), G Chris McEachin (Sr), G Pendarvis Williams (So)
Key Losses: G Rob Hampton, G Aleek Pauline
Expected RPI: 275

Kyle O'Quinn is a beast. The 6'10" center averaged 16.4 ppg and 11.1 rpg last year, but this team needs help as they lose their top two assist guys in Hampton and Pauline. We probably got the worst of the Paradise Jam teams for our home game, but it's not unthinkable that Norfolk State could crack the top-250 in RPI if someone can emerge at the point, but the Spartans haven't done that since 2001, so it may be asking too much. This will probably be the worst team we play in non-conference, which is an upgrade over last year when we played 5 teams with RPI rankings below 275.

EDIT: Thankfully I was wrong about NSU. They overachieved, largely due to the excellent play of Kyle O'Quinn. But they had a history of being a very bad team and their breakout season wasn't something that was a given by any means, especially as O'Quinn wasn't a newcomer.

Also, Wisconsin and Chicago State announced today. We knew the Badgers were coming on the schedule. Chicago State was RPI 333 last year with a record of 8-24.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 08:53:50 AM by brewcity77 »

mu03eng

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #43 on: July 13, 2015, 08:55:39 AM »
Here's what I'd love to have Broeker answer some time....is a schedule like the one we have this season a function of philosophy, economics, or a little both.

What I mean by that, is MU scheduling easy teams intentionally knowing they will be young and inexperienced...banking on conference play to earn them a tournament spot

OR

Every other school can do the RPI math that Brew is doing, that makes the Belmont's of the world very popular with the high major schools.  They all want 200-250 RPI level teams, so is there a bidding war for those teams that drive up the prices?  Combined that with the schedule handicaps (Bucks games, concerts, etc) that makes putting the "ideal" schedule together difficult.


If I had a gun to my head I'd say it's 70% the latter, 30% the former.
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jsglow

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #44 on: July 13, 2015, 09:00:25 AM »
While I agree with the RPI issue and the desire to play 225's rather than 325's I think it more important this year with a very young team to re-establish the culture of winning.  We nearly lost 20 games last season.  That can't be repeated and that's the reason season ticket sales have collapsed.  I think MU has been purposeful in attempting to get off to a good start and enter conference play with some confidence.  I think back to last year when were quite competitive out of the gate in January following a solid ASU win and a handful of cupcakes.  Then losing took it's toll.  I'm convinced that Wojo wants to minimize losing with these young kids in hopes of building for conference and beyond.  Do that and finish 4th or 5th in the BEast and everything will take care of itself.

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #45 on: July 13, 2015, 09:22:42 AM »
Not sure that's true. I believe adding certain tournament teams might help but a few years ago we played Norfolk state and that game was nearly empty even though they were expected to run away with their conference.

Not everybody cares the way we all do following rpi and preseason predictions etc.
That Norfolk State game was on a Monday while the Packers were playing later that night on MNF.

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #46 on: July 13, 2015, 09:45:29 AM »
While I agree with the RPI issue and the desire to play 225's rather than 325's I think it more important this year with a very young team to re-establish the culture of winning.  We nearly lost 20 games last season.  That can't be repeated and that's the reason season ticket sales have collapsed.  I think MU has been purposeful in attempting to get off to a good start and enter conference play with some confidence.  I think back to last year when were quite competitive out of the gate in January following a solid ASU win and a handful of cupcakes.  Then losing took it's toll.  I'm convinced that Wojo wants to minimize losing with these young kids in hopes of building for conference and beyond.  Do that and finish 4th or 5th in the BEast and everything will take care of itself.

Saying we nearly lost 20 seems glasses half empty. One could argue we nearly won 18 games. 
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brewcity77

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #47 on: July 13, 2015, 09:49:06 AM »
While I agree with the RPI issue and the desire to play 225's rather than 325's I think it more important this year with a very young team to re-establish the culture of winning.  We nearly lost 20 games last season.  That can't be repeated and that's the reason season ticket sales have collapsed.  I think MU has been purposeful in attempting to get off to a good start and enter conference play with some confidence.  I think back to last year when were quite competitive out of the gate in January following a solid ASU win and a handful of cupcakes.  Then losing took it's toll.  I'm convinced that Wojo wants to minimize losing with these young kids in hopes of building for conference and beyond.  Do that and finish 4th or 5th in the BEast and everything will take care of itself.

And there's the rub. Go 11-2 in non-conference and 11-7 in the Big East and we should be okay. 11-2 and 10-8, we're on the bubble. Any less than 21 wins and we're probably in need of a BET run.

Right now, Villanova, Georgetown, Xavier, and Butler look like the top-4 in the league. After that, I'd assume a dogfight between Providence, Creighton, and Marquette to squeeze into the tourney. If we are better than expected and crack the top-4, we should be fine. If not, any non-con losses or perceived weaknesses in that schedule could keep us out, especially if we are in the 6th or 7th spots in the league.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 09:52:35 AM by brewcity77 »

Galway Eagle

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #48 on: July 13, 2015, 09:51:05 AM »
Norfolk State was not expected to run away with their conference that year. Here's what I wrote about them in the preseason on Cracked Sidewalks as far as NSU expectations went:

EDIT: Thankfully I was wrong about NSU. They overachieved, largely due to the excellent play of Kyle O'Quinn. But they had a history of being a very bad team and their breakout season wasn't something that was a given by any means, especially as O'Quinn wasn't a newcomer.

Also, Wisconsin and Chicago State announced today. We knew the Badgers were coming on the schedule. Chicago State was RPI 333 last year with a record of 8-24.

Isn't that a bit of a subjective point of view that you write up? I'm not bashing it since I've been an avid reader since I was a freshman in 2009 but where were they listed in their conference's coaches poll? Also where did you have North Carolina Central and Savannah State the following year? Because didn't they end up as 1 and 2 in their conference respectively?

I agree scheduling chicago state and grambling is bad. 
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brewcity77

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Re: 2015 Non-conference Schedule
« Reply #49 on: July 13, 2015, 10:32:21 AM »
Isn't that a bit of a subjective point of view that you write up? I'm not bashing it since I've been an avid reader since I was a freshman in 2009 but where were they listed in their conference's coaches poll? Also where did you have North Carolina Central and Savannah State the following year? Because didn't they end up as 1 and 2 in their conference respectively?

I agree scheduling chicago state and grambling is bad.

They were picked 5th in the MEAC preseason poll in 2011: Article

The three seasons prior to 2011, the average RPI of the 5th place MEAC team was 260. So not that far off what I predicted.

The next year, John Pudner (bamamarquettefan) handled the expected rankings. Cracked Sidewalks had Savannah State at 150 (finished 166) and NC Central at 218 (finished 155). Again, not that far off. Here's what I posted here about Savannah State:

Marquette announced Savannah State over the weekend. That probably won't get many people excited, but I think it's a huge add. They are a very solid bet to be at least a NIT team, and should be a clear-cut favorite to play in the NCAA Tournament as the auto-bid winner out of the MEAC next year (the same conference that produced Norfolk State).

Savannah State
Returning Players: Rashad Hassan, Deric Rudolph, Arnold Louis, Preston Blackmon, Joshua Montgomery
3-Year RPI Average: 264
3-Year Kenpom Average: 249.3
2012-13 Outlook: What the average numbers don't show is that Savannah State has improved markedly with this class that will now be seniors, from 318 in the RPI as freshmen to 191 last year as juniors and from 309 per Kenpom as freshmen to 173 as juniors. Savannah State finished ahead of Norfolk State in both rankings last year despite losing in the conference tournament. What makes the Tigers interesting is that they start five seniors and all of their bench players will be seniors or juniors as they return literally everyone from last year. Rashad Hassan is a dynamic player that can play inside and out. The real question is if they can beat a top-200 team as they've only beaten one (per kenpom) the previous 3 seasons.

Couldn't find my own comments about NC Central, but they had 3 years of improvement in RPI and were top-250 the year before. They were a much better buy game than any of these five look on paper.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 10:34:02 AM by brewcity77 »