Would you fly on a pilotless passenger jet?

[Tugg Speedman]

I've been using Uber for several years....it has not DESTROYED the taxi business.  No doubt it has put them on their heels, but it hasn't destroyed them....yet.  Try getting Uber from a major airport...you can't.  Newspapers have adapted, just as other industries will.  

So in this world of driverless cars that are going to shoot around and drive people everywhere, you're still going to have tremendous spike issues.  When everyone needs a ride home from work, all those cars are needed....during the day what are they doing when demand is down?  Or is everyone telecommuting?  What about rural areas where it will be financially upside down to have a service like this, much like it is financially upside down today to deliver internet and other services to rural areas?  What's going to happen on the crime side...are we going to have gangs just hunkered in the back blasting away now and not having to worry about the driver getting shot.....happens here in LA all too often....I'm looking forward to the Crips and Bloods and the Mexican driverless cars...should be fun.

Oh yes the taxi business has been destroyed.  In Chicago a taxi medallion is essentially worth zero.  That is nearly the case in NYC too.  The reason you cannot get Uber at the airport is their are banned by local governments from operating at the airport.

And Uber is a good example to answer the second half of your post.  Uber just had its fourth (yes, fourth) anniversary a few weeks ago.  Look how far they have come in just four years.  I explained the END of the process.  Yes their will be cultural resistance to getting there.  Things will have to change.  It will take time.  Driverless and driver will at first exist side-by-side.  Drivers will continue to muck things up by making mistakes making people not like them and prefer driverless.  We used to have telephone and elevator operators, the were automated away too.  It took time but it happened.

A hundred years ago the same thing was said about the gasoline car and why the horse would never go away ... No infrastructure in the rural areas (no gas stations). And when forward thinkers imagined the rise of the cities and commuting because of "horseless carriages " people scoffed.  LA was invented.  "Driverless carriages" will do the same to culture and living styles.

Spikes because of rush hour?  Two things.

First things move a lot faster because of the efficiencies in driverless and all connected and figuring routes out via algorithm when you know what all the other cars are doing.  So when it's raining at 5pm and you get in the back of a driverless car, you will be complaining that you're only doing 70 on the 405 (no speed limits on highways in a fully driverless world).

Driverless also means driverless trains, busses, taxi pools.  Driverless ups and fedex trucks means cheaper and far more efficient deliveries.  How much driving is chores you'd rather not do?  Getting groceries, going to the store knowing exactly what you need.  It's a waste of time and resources.  Order it and it arrives in 10 minutes via driverless delivery.

Again my larger point is driverless is as relovoutionary as the Internet itself.  Did you miss the opportunity to be a zillionaire in the early stages of the Internet because you did not "get it."  You have another opportunity with driverless.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Haha, those navy and air force aviator jokes made me laugh. My grandfather was a pilot in the Navy in WW2. The big joke with the MU ROTC kids is that the Navy actually has better planes than the air force.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I've been using Uber for several years....it has not DESTROYED the taxi business.  No doubt it has put them on their heels, but it hasn't destroyed them....yet.  Try getting Uber from a major airport...you can't.  Newspapers have adapted, just as other industries will.  

So in this world of driverless cars that are going to shoot around and drive people everywhere, you're still going to have tremendous spike issues.  When everyone needs a ride home from work, all those cars are needed....during the day what are they doing when demand is down?  Or is everyone telecommuting?  What about rural areas where it will be financially upside down to have a service like this, much like it is financially upside down today to deliver internet and other services to rural areas?  What's going to happen on the crime side...are we going to have gangs just hunkered in the back blasting away now and not having to worry about the driver getting shot.....happens here in LA all too often....I'm looking forward to the Crips and Bloods and the Mexican driverless cars...should be fun.

I agree with Chico's.

I'm not in favor of minorities and gangs getting driverless cars. Way too much at stake.

Just another example of millennials ruining this country.

(shakes fist)

[mu03eng]

I agree with Chico's.

I'm not in favor of minorities and gangs getting driverless cars. Way too much at stake.

Just another example of millennials ruining this country.

(shakes fist)

Are you just going to leave all those children on your lawn unyelled at?

[ChicosBailBonds]

So what happens when the pilotless plane is hacked by someone and flown into the ground, building, etc?  Presumable these vehicles need to be connected on a network of some kind to get commands to dispatch, etc.

[Tugg Speedman]

So what happens when the pilotless plane is hacked by someone and flown into the ground, building, etc?  Presumable these vehicles need to be connected on a network of some kind to get commands to dispatch, etc.

In February 60 minutes did an entire segment on how hackers can get into you car now, reprogram it and take control making you powerless

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/car-hacked-on-60-minutes/

One of the vulnerabilities Kaufman and DARPA are working to eliminate that affects many is in the automobile. Cars today are loaded with computers networked to each other, and those can be hacked remotely. In a dramatic demonstration, he and his colleagues use a laptop computer to hack into a car being driven by Stahl. Much to her surprise, they were able to take control of many of the car's functions, including the braking and acceleration.

[4everwarriors]

Was this one of Steve Kroft's segments? Kinda a hanky panky thing goin' on , hey?

[ChicosBailBonds]

I agree with Chico's.

I'm not in favor of minorities and gangs getting driverless cars. Way too much at stake.

Just another example of millennials ruining this country.

(shakes fist)

I'm in favor of illegals getting into driverless cars since they shouldn't be driving today.

[ChicosBailBonds]

In February 60 minutes did an entire segment on how hackers can get into you car now, reprogram it and take control making you powerless

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/car-hacked-on-60-minutes/

One of the vulnerabilities Kaufman and DARPA are working to eliminate that affects many is in the automobile. Cars today are loaded with computers networked to each other, and those can be hacked remotely. In a dramatic demonstration, he and his colleagues use a laptop computer to hack into a car being driven by Stahl. Much to her surprise, they were able to take control of many of the car's functions, including the braking and acceleration.

Yes, I saw it.  Thing is, taking over a car is peanuts in the grand scheme of things.  Take over a few airplanes all on the same day in a coordinated attack because they are all on the same network...now that can cause some problems.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougnewcomb/2015/02/09/60-minutes-joins-car-hacking-hype/

[Tugg Speedman]

Yes, I saw it.  Thing is, taking over a car is peanuts in the grand scheme of things.  Take over a few airplanes all on the same day in a coordinated attack because they are all on the same network...now that can cause some problems.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougnewcomb/2015/02/09/60-minutes-joins-car-hacking-hype/

If we are going to worry about hacking, getting a few planes is small potatoes as well.  

Hack the Federal Reserve payment system (aka Fed Wire), once in you can create thousands of erroneous transactions between banks rendering the entire Global banking system insolvent.  The stock market crashes and all ATM are closed until further notice.  It's worse in other countries.

That does not kill people.  Ok, hack into the nations power grid.  Once in shut down electricity for large parts of the country and meltdown a few nuclear power plants to boot.

Point is if you're going to worry about hacking into networks, they are far more important networks that exist right now that could destroy the west in a day.  

If this doesn't keep you up at night, then don't worry about a network of driverless cars or pilotless planes.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Oh yes the taxi business has been destroyed.  In Chicago a taxi medallion is essentially worth zero.  That is nearly the case in NYC too.  The reason you cannot get Uber at the airport is their are banned by local governments from operating at the airport.

And Uber is a good example to answer the second half of your post.  Uber just had its fourth (yes, fourth) anniversary a few weeks ago.  Look how far they have come in just four years.  I explained the END of the process.  Yes their will be cultural resistance to getting there.  Things will have to change.  It will take time.  Driverless and driver will at first exist side-by-side.  Drivers will continue to muck things up by making mistakes making people not like them and prefer driverless.  We used to have telephone and elevator operators, the were automated away too.  It took time but it happened.

A hundred years ago the same thing was said about the gasoline car and why the horse would never go away ... No infrastructure in the rural areas (no gas stations). And when forward thinkers imagined the rise of the cities and commuting because of "horseless carriages " people scoffed.  LA was invented.  "Driverless carriages" will do the same to culture and living styles.

Spikes because of rush hour?  Two things.

First things move a lot faster because of the efficiencies in driverless and all connected and figuring routes out via algorithm when you know what all the other cars are doing.  So when it's raining at 5pm and you get in the back of a driverless car, you will be complaining that you're only doing 70 on the 405 (no speed limits on highways in a fully driverless world).

Driverless also means driverless trains, busses, taxi pools.  Driverless ups and fedex trucks means cheaper and far more efficient deliveries.  How much driving is chores you'd rather not do?  Getting groceries, going to the store knowing exactly what you need.  It's a waste of time and resources.  Order it and it arrives in 10 minutes via driverless delivery.

Again my larger point is driverless is as relovoutionary as the Internet itself.  Did you miss the opportunity to be a zillionaire in the early stages of the Internet because you did not "get it."  You have another opportunity with driverless.

It has not been destroyed.  Destroyed means gone, done. It is not done.  A NY taxi medallion is about $800K right now.  Certainly down from the $1M paid last year, but not destroyed.  Doesn't mean it won't be destroyed in the future, but it's like your video claim last year.  You tend to get way ahead of yourself.

I remember the internet bubble bursting because of the fake values created.  I sense a lot of that going on as well.  It is going to be many, many, many years for this to take off.  Too costly, too large a footprint.  Uber is a great example of a company totally overvalued at the moment.

The irony of you using driverless trains...yes, we see that for short haul trams from airport terminal to terminal, but we don't see it by and large for true passenger and freight trains.  Why?  I mean, talk about an easy one...no turns involved, you stay on the tracks, you depart at specific times, if ever there was a layup for this stuff it is those trains, yet so many do not go with that technology and there is a reason.

Finally, yes airports won't allow Uber because of the municipal bans.  Exactly correct.  The taxi companies, whom I have absolutely no love for and I use Uber often, are controlling some of that.  I have no doubt you are going to see the heavy hand of gov't regulation for Lyft, Sidecar, Uber, etc coming soon, too.  Gov't wants their money and they will get it one way or another.

[Tugg Speedman]

It has not been destroyed.  Destroyed means gone, done. It is not done.  A NY taxi medallion is about $800K right now.  Certainly down from the $1M paid last year, but not destroyed.  Doesn't mean it won't be destroyed in the future, but it's like your video claim last year.  You tend to get way ahead of yourself.

A NYC taxi medallion traded for $550k earlier this week

http://nycitycab.com/Business/TaxiMedallionList.aspx

And their is accusations that the taxi and limo commission is lying about medallion prices on their website

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/12/01/new_york_taxi_medallions_did_tlc_transaction_data_inflate_the_price_of_driving.html

And the Greater New City Taxi association is investigating (they won't find anything because they don't want to know the truth).

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/30/upshot/taxi-owners-in-new-york-seek-inquiry-on-medallion-prices.html?_r=0

As long as Uber exists, their only value is airport rides (Government controlled monopoly) and hailing, which won't cover costs in the world of Uber competition.

[ChicosBailBonds]

If we are going to worry about hacking, getting a few planes is small potatoes as well.  

Hack the Federal Reserve payment system (aka Fed Wire), once in you can create thousands of erroneous transactions between banks rendering the entire Global banking system insolvent.  The stock market crashes and all ATM are closed until further notice.  It's worse in other countries.

That does not kill people.  Ok, hack into the nations power grid.  Once in shut down electricity for large parts of the country and meltdown a few nuclear power plants to boot.

Point is if you're going to worry about hacking into networks, they are far more important networks that exist right now that could destroy the west in a day.  

If this doesn't keep you up at night, then don't worry about a network of driverless cars or pilotless planes.

Disagree, hacking a few planes is psychological warfare and screws with the mind like few things can.  We are reminded every time we fly when we have to take our shoes off and go through the ordeal.  The car hacking you can still pull the emergency break, break a window, jump out a moving car, grab the steering wheel, etc.  On a plane, you're screwed and with the amount of fuel and mere size of the vessel, you're talking about a very damaging weapon.


Yes, I agree about the financial stuff....it is very concerning what could be done. 

[MUsoxfan]

Disagree, hacking a few planes is psychological warfare and screws with the mind like few things can.  We are reminded every time we fly when we have to take our shoes off and go through the ordeal.  The car hacking you can still pull the emergency break, break a window, jump out a moving car, grab the steering wheel, etc.  On a plane, you're screwed and with the amount of fuel and mere size of the vessel, you're talking about a very damaging weapon.


Yes, I agree about the financial stuff....it is very concerning what could be done. 

Agreed. The first time an unmanned commercial aircraft has any sort of malfunction, there will be a line of lawyers waiting to file suit. And they will all win

[ChicosBailBonds]

A NYC taxi medallion traded for $550k earlier this week

http://nycitycab.com/Business/TaxiMedallionList.aspx

And their is accusations that the taxi and limo commission is lying about medallion prices on their website

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/12/01/new_york_taxi_medallions_did_tlc_transaction_data_inflate_the_price_of_driving.html

And the Greater New City Taxi association is investigating (they won't find anything because they don't want to know the truth).

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/30/upshot/taxi-owners-in-new-york-seek-inquiry-on-medallion-prices.html?_r=0

As long as Uber exists, their only value is airport rides (Government controlled monopoly) and hailing, which won't cover costs in the world of Uber competition.

When I'm in NYC, I still go with the cabs almost always.  Takes 20 seconds to get one, I don't have to wait.  LA, always Uber.  San Diego...same.  I was in Miami in January when Uber had just launched 3 weeks earlier....they didn't have their act together, but the cabs there are horrible so they'll be fine.  Denver Uber service 3 weeks ago....not good and I took it twice.  Disappointed....hopefully I just had bad luck.  So it kind of depends on the city, quality of the workforce, etc.  

Again, I'm a fan of Uber, I just find the $40b valuation laughable right now.  Plenty of regulation heading their way, however.  I'm still amazed when I travel places how few people even know about Uber.  When I was in Denver, absolutely no one I was dealing with had ever heard of it which really surprised me.  Denver is pretty cutting edge in my opinion...or I was hanging out with the wrong crew.

NYC taxi profits, not impacted.  I wouldn't call this destroyed....not yet anyway.  http://nypost.com/2015/02/17/uber-does-little-to-hurt-yellow-taxi-profits/



 

[GOO]

I agree with much of what has been said by the advocates for driver less cars, except for the time frame.

Yes, the tech is there now and yes someone will have driverless cars on the road within 5 years.  But for any significant mass adoption it will take a lot longer.

I think the low hanging fruit will be dealt with first, which means "auto pilot" cars with a driver at the controls and responsible for the vehicle.

It will take 10 to 15 years for the majority of cars on the road to have this feature.

As far as worrying about people loosing jobs because there are less accidents, no worries.  Think of all of the money governments will save in paying for hospital bills.  I told a personal injury attorney friend of mine to make his money in the next 10 years as accident rates will be going down by then, and will plummet in 20 years.  All good.

[Tugg Speedman]

I agree with much of what has been said by the advocates for driver less cars, except for the time frame.

Yes, the tech is there now and yes someone will have driverless cars on the road within 5 years.  But for any significant mass adoption it will take a lot longer.

I think the low hanging fruit will be dealt with first, which means "auto pilot" cars with a driver at the controls and responsible for the vehicle.

It will take 10 to 15 years for the majority of cars on the road to have this feature.

As far as worrying about people loosing jobs because there are less accidents, no worries.  Think of all of the money governments will save in paying for hospital bills.  I told a personal injury attorney friend of mine to make his money in the next 10 years as accident rates will be going down by then, and will plummet in 20 years.  All good.

Don't disagree with any of this.  Tesla has an "auto pilot" cruise control that drives the car right now (on the new P85 version).  Think of it as cruise control on steroids.   Audi has a version coming next year.  BMW in two years.

I guess the rate of adoption depends on how much the public embraces it.  The public quickly embraced the Internet and the smart phones and demand them and we got all this at breakneck pace.

Will they view driverless cars as something to be skeptical of or will they view it as the ultimate connivence and lifesaving idea and demand we move to them as fast as possible?

[4everwarriors]

Who do the shysters sue in da event of an accident? I know, everyone, hey?

[#UnleashSean]

Commercial licensed pilot here. Jet's are all ready largely automated. Landing and takeoff can both be done automated, and around 75% of the time the cruising time is done by the computer. It's a best kept secret by pilots that they largely do not have a job unless something goes wrong.

[#UnleashSean]

So what happens when the pilotless plane is hacked by someone and flown into the ground, building, etc?  Presumable these vehicles need to be connected on a network of some kind to get commands to dispatch, etc.

Your computer skills are lacking. If all flight calculations are done on the plane (Which they will be) there will be no network to hack to tell the airplane to fly down.

[Tugg Speedman]

Commercial licensed pilot here. Jet's are all ready largely automated. Landing and takeoff can both be done automated, and around 75% of the time the cruising time is done by the computer. It's a best kept secret by pilots that they largely do not have a job unless something goes wrong.

How hard would it be to reprogram a plane to prevent a suicidal co-pilot from intentionally crashing a plane into a mountain?

[#UnleashSean]

How hard would it be to reprogram a plane to prevent a suicidal co-pilot from intentionally crashing a plane into a mountain?

Wouldn't be. The real problem would be between giving the computer the power to override the human, or giving the human the power to override the computer.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Your computer skills are lacking. If all flight calculations are done on the plane (Which they will be) there will be no network to hack to tell the airplane to fly down.

So in the future these planes will have no connections of ANY KIND to home base, an airport, etc, from a network?  Whether it is for clearance to land, to divert to another airport, etc, etc?

I find that hard to believe....there will be some kind of network connection of some kind. the last thing anyone is going to do is not have some kind of failsafe, override mechanism control.

[#UnleashSean]

So in the future these planes will have no connections of ANY KIND to home base, an airport, etc, from a network?  Whether it is for clearance to land, to divert to another airport, etc, etc?

I find that hard to believe....there will be some kind of network connection of some kind. the last thing anyone is going to do is not have some kind of failsafe, override mechanism control.

I'm sorry that you might have grew up in an age where computers were not readily available. Let me give you some quick info.


Network - Would give information on other planes, clearances etc

Client - Would control the flight of the craft

These two would not connect in anyway exact for kilobyte's of information of text based documents on coordinates. The only way to hack into a client would be to psychically take over the plane and enter the mainframe of the computer.

Think of it this way, if your computer at home was not connected to the internet sending and receiving data every second, then it would be impossible to be hacked. This is what the client of a plane would do.

[Benny B]

You people are giving waaayyyyyyyy too much credit to the hacking community.