Would you fly on a pilotless passenger jet?

[jesmu84]

I will take my chances on a human pilot going haywire rather than a computer named Hal.

I don't understand this viewpoint - that computers are somehow malevolent boogey-men. Computers, time and time again, have shown to be more efficient, more accurate, more sensitive, faster, etc than humans at nearly every enterprise where they've been introduced.

Let me ask you this... do you own your own company? If so, do you do all your finances with pencil and paper without a calculator? You must, since you wouldn't trust even a calculator to screw something up and bankrupt you or put your livelihood or company in jeopardy.

[Tugg Speedman]

Eh.... current robotic surgery hasn't really changed the field of surgery all that much. And, when talking about robotic surgery, there is no "robot" doing anything. It's a human controlling every movement of a machine. The machine can't do a thing on its own.

The biggest problem people have is stationary thinking.  They see the world today and cannot envision how it will change, and how that change will change soon.

---------------

da Vinci®…Changing the Experience of Surgery
http://www.davincisurgery.com/

With the da Vinci Surgical System, surgeons operate through just a few small incisions. The da Vinci System features a magnified 3D high-definition vision system and tiny wristed instruments that bend and rotate far greater than the human wrist. As a result, da Vinci enables your surgeon to operate with enhanced vision, precision, dexterity and control.

Minimally invasive da Vinci uses the latest in surgical and robotics technologies. da Vinci is beneficial for performing routine and complex surgery. Your surgeon is 100% in control of the da Vinci System, which translates his or her hand movements into smaller, more precise movements of tiny instruments inside your body. da Vinci – taking surgery beyond the limits of the human hand.

Physicians have used the da Vinci System successfully worldwide in approximately 1.5 million various surgical procedures to date. da Vinci is changing the experience of surgery for people around the world.

--------

You are correct that the surgeon operates the robot today.  But make no mistake about it, hundreds of millions are being spent to eliminate the need for the surgeon.  We don't have it now but we will soon.

At a minimum the knife in the surgeons hand is about to be a thing of the past, if it is not already.  Today's surgeons are looking at monitors in front of a mouse and keyboard.  This how they are being trained in medical school right now.

FYI - I'm good friends with the head of robotic surgery at Northwestern University Hospital and he tells me automated robotic surgery is absolutely coming.  The problem now is perfecting "micro GPS" of the body (to tolerances much less than one millimeter) and instantaneous correction of this "micro GPS" as the patent moves.  This is the major piece missing from automated surgery.  Once they get this perfected, automatic surgery will come really fast.

Will it eliminate the need for surgeons?  Traditional surgeons, yes.  The future of surgery will be a essentially be a programmer telling the robot what to do.

Should you trust a robot?  

Like everything else, they will be cheaper, safer and faster.

When the car was invented a hundred years ago, many people refused to give up their horse.  But society understood the efficiencies of the motor car, its relative safety (early cars did not go that fast so accident rates were much lower) and the huge heath and lifestyle benefits of getting rid of horse dung on every street.  Soon society demanded the elimination of the horse as a primary means of transportation.

Likewise with driverless cars and robot surgeries.  Once they realize that driverless cars are cheaper, more efficient and save lives (think version 2.0, 3.0 or 4.0) they will pass paws outlawing "road killers" ... human drivers.

Once they realize that robot surgery is cheaper and safer, and robot surgeons can operate 24/7 perfectly every-time (again think down the road), society will demand robot surgeon clinics to be as common as drugstores cranking on medical issues and improving lives in ways human surgeons can never do.

Soon after robot surgery is perfected (and it will be in your lifetime and expect an automated robot will operate on you someday) the picture of a human surgeon cutting into a patient by hand will look as archaic 19th century photos of medicine.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Heisenberg, I'm all for progress and a technology nut...I've been involved with it for decades on the entertainment side.  Yes, things are coming and we need to continue to evolve.  But there are also questions that have to be asked, ethical questions, procedural questions, pure medical questions.  Robotics will continue to be used, AI will get better, etc, etc.  No one is questioning this.   However, the questions that do come up revolve around adoption, pragmatism, etc.  We will still be training surgeons with a knife for many many many years to come.

People bitch about health care costs until the cows come home....wonder how much it will cost to put robotic instruments into every hospital in the nation?  Who's going to pay for them?  You will have some hospitals that will have them, any many many many that will not for a long time.

[Tugg Speedman]

Heisenberg, I'm all for progress and a technology nut...I've been involved with it for decades on the entertainment side.  Yes, things are coming and we need to continue to evolve.  But there are also questions that have to be asked, ethical questions, procedural questions, pure medical questions.  Robotics will continue to be used, AI will get better, etc, etc.  No one is questioning this.   However, the questions that do come up revolve around adoption, pragmatism, etc.  We will still be training surgeons with a knife for many many many years to come.

People bitch about health care costs until the cows come home....wonder how much it will cost to put robotic instruments into every hospital in the nation?  Who's going to pay for them?  You will have some hospitals that will have them, any many many many that will not for a long time.

Cost will be cheaper than human surgeons so we will need less of them.  This is the solution to rising healthcare costs, not a reason for them to go up more.

[GooooMarquette]

Hackers can infiltrate White House and Pentagon computer systems.

Hackers can steal personal information to perpetrate identity theft at the touch of the button.

Anyone who thinks those same hackers couldn't infiltrate the software that runs the cars - and bring traffic everywhere to a grinding halt - are hopelessly naive.

I believe the road will be filled with nothing but driverless cars only after we are convinced we have definitively prevented hackers from reading POTUS' private records or stealing our SSNs.  Anybody got a date on that?

[#UnleashSean]

Hackers can infiltrate White House and Pentagon computer systems.

Hackers can steal personal information to perpetrate identity theft at the touch of the button.

Anyone who thinks those same hackers couldn't infiltrate the software that runs the cars - and bring traffic everywhere to a grinding halt - are hopelessly naive.

I believe the road will be filled with nothing but driverless cars only after we are convinced we have definitively prevented hackers from reading POTUS' private records or stealing our SSNs.  Anybody got a date on that?

You are hopelessly naive in the way computers work.

[Tugg Speedman]

http://qz.com/403628/autonomous-cars-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025

Most people—experts included—seem to think that the transition to driverless vehicles will come slowly over the coming few decades, and that large hurdles exist for widespread adoption. I believe that this is significant underestimation.

Autonomous cars will be commonplace by 2025 and have a near monopoly by 2030, and the sweeping change they bring will eclipse every other innovation our society has experienced. They will cause unprecedented job loss and a fundamental restructuring of our economy, solve large portions of our environmental problems, prevent tens of thousands of deaths per year, save millions of hours with increased productivity, and create entire new industries that we cannot even imagine from our current vantage point.

The transition is already beginning to happen. Elon Musk, Tesla Motor’s CEO, says that their 2015 models will be able to self-drive 90% of the time. And major automakers aren’t far behind—according to Bloomberg News, GM’s 2017 Cadillac is planned to feature “technology that takes control of steering, acceleration and braking at highway speeds of 70 miles per hour or in stop-and-go congested traffic.”

Both Google and Tesla predict that fully-autonomous cars—what Musk describes as “true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep, and wake up at your destination”—will be available to the public by 2020.


How it will unfold

Industry experts think that consumers will be slow to purchase autonomous cars—while this may be true, it is a mistake to assume that this will impede the transition.
Morgan Stanley’s research shows that cars are driven just 4% of the year, which is an astonishing waste considering that the average cost of car ownership is nearly $9,000 per year. Next to a house, an automobile is the second-most expensive asset that most people will ever buy—it is no surprise that ride sharing services like Uber and car sharing services like Zipcar are quickly gaining popularity as an alternative to car ownership.

It is now more economical to use a ride-sharing service if you live in a city and drive less than 10,000 miles per year. And current research confirms that we would be eager to use autonomous cars if they were available. A full 60% of US adults surveyed stated that they would ride in an autonomous car, and nearly 32% said they would not continue to drive once an autonomous car was available instead. But no one is more excited than Uber—CEO Travis Kalanick recently stated that Uber will eventually replace all of its drivers with self-driving cars.
A January 2013 Columbia University study once suggested that with a fleet of just 9,000 autonomous cars, Uber could replace every taxi cab in New York City, and that passengers would wait an average of 36 seconds for a ride that costs about $0.50 per mile. Such convenience and low cost would make car ownership inconceivable, and autonomous, on-demand taxis—the “transportation cloud”—will quickly become the dominant form of transportation.


Fallout

Disruptive innovation does not take kindly to entrenched competitors—like Blockbuster, Barnes and Noble, and Polaroid, it is unlikely that major automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota will survive the leap. They are geared to produce millions of cars in dozens of different varieties to cater to individual taste and have far too much overhead to sustain such a dramatic decrease in sales. I think that most will be bankrupt by 2030, while startup automakers like Tesla will thrive on a smaller number of fleet sales to operators like Uber by offering standardized models with fewer options.

Ancillary industries such as the $198 billion automobile insurance market, $98 billion automotive finance market, $100 billion parking industry, and the $300 billion automotive aftermarket will collapse as demand for their services evaporates. We will see the obsolescence of rental car companies, public transportation systems, and, good riddance, parking, and speeding tickets.

But we will see the transformation of far more than just consumer transportation: self-driving semis, buses, earth movers, and delivery trucks could obviate the need for professional drivers and the support industries that surround them.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics lists that 915,000 people are employed in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing. Truck, bus, delivery, and taxi drivers account for nearly 6 million professional driving jobs. Virtually all of these jobs will be eliminated within 10-15 years, and this list is by no means exhaustive.

But despite the job loss and wholesale destruction of industries, eliminating the needs for car ownership will yield over $1 trillion in additional disposable income—and that is going to usher in an era of unprecedented efficiency, innovation, and job creation.
A view of the future

Morgan Stanley estimates that a 90% reduction in crashes would save nearly 30,000 lives and prevent 2.12 million injuries annually. Driverless cars do not need to park—vehicles cruising the street looking for parking spots account for an astounding 30% of city traffic, not to mention that eliminating curbside parking adds two extra lanes of capacity to many city streets. Traffic will become nonexistent, saving each US commuter 38 hours every year—nearly a full work week. As parking lots and garages, car dealerships, and bus stations become obsolete, tens of millions of square feet of available prime real estate will spur explosive metropolitan development.

The environmental impact of autonomous cars has the potential to reverse the trend of global warming and drastically reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. As most autonomous cars are likely to be electric, we would eliminate most of the 134 billion gallons of gasoline used each year in the US alone. And while recycling 242 million vehicles will certainly require substantial resources, the surplus of raw materials will decrease the need for mining.

But perhaps most exciting for me are the coming inventions, discoveries, and creation of entire new industries that we cannot yet imagine.
It is exciting to be alive, isn’t it?

This post originally appeared at The Personal Blog of Zack Kanter. Follow Zack on Twitter at @ZackKanter. We welcome your comments at ideas@qz.com.

[GooooMarquette]

You are hopelessly naive in the way computers work.

lol

[ChicosBailBonds]

Cost will be cheaper than human surgeons so we will need less of them.  This is the solution to rising healthcare costs, not a reason for them to go up more.

The exact same arguments were made about MRI machines, etc...better technology, better diagnosis...cheaper healthcare costs....except that's not what happened.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Hackers can infiltrate White House and Pentagon computer systems.

Hackers can steal personal information to perpetrate identity theft at the touch of the button.

Anyone who thinks those same hackers couldn't infiltrate the software that runs the cars - and bring traffic everywhere to a grinding halt - are hopelessly naive.

I believe the road will be filled with nothing but driverless cars only after we are convinced we have definitively prevented hackers from reading POTUS' private records or stealing our SSNs.  Anybody got a date on that?

It's already happened with cars and now planes.  Earlier in this thread a pilot said it could not happen.  Ooops...already has.

Of course it can, anyone is naive to think it cannot.

[Tugg Speedman]

It's already happened with cars and now planes.  Earlier in this thread a pilot said it could not happen.  Ooops...already has.

Of course it can, anyone is naive to think it cannot.

Humans kill 40,000 and injury 2 million a year but you're worried about hackers.  The carnage has to stop.  It will went the steering wheel is obsolete.

Regarding hackers,  our entire financial system is automated and on the net. We don't even issue paper certificates anymore.  everything is electronic and some account on the computer database.  If hackers can do what you claim they would Drain everybody's account of money and put the world into chaos, they haven't even come close.   The reason they can't is security measures are much more sophisticated than you're giving them credit for.

Embrace change Cicos, don't be that bitter old man in the corner at sunrise soiling his pants complaining about Robot doctors and driverless cars.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Humans kill 40,000 and injury 2 million a year but you're worried about hackers.  The carnage has to stop.  It will went the steering wheel is obsolete.

Regarding hackers,  our entire financial system is automated and on the net. We don't even issue paper certificates anymore.  everything is electronic and some account on the computer database.  If hackers can do what you claim they would Drain everybody's account of money and put the world and the chaos, they haven't even come close.   The reason they can't is security measures are much more sophisticated than you're giving them credit for.

Embrace change Cicos, don't be that bitter old man in the corner at sunrise soiling his pants complaining about Robot doctors and driverless cars.

You are using raw numbers....out of how many drivers, time, miles, etc are humans killed on the road?  Very low.  Extremely low.  Will automated cars be better?  Perhaps...at what cost, however?  You don't seem to factor that in. 

Look, I just gave you a few articles that show what they can do.  I'm not claiming anything, this thing called the FBI is confirming it.  Or an actual demonstration with 60 minutes a few years ago.  Now, is that a reason not to move forward with it?  Of course not, nor did I say that.  But the absurdity here that it CANNOT HAPPEN, is pure horsecrap.  Of course it can, and already has.

I've embraced change my whole life Heisenburg, I just don't run around with my head cut off at the next new change and come on here proclaiming it's all going to be done by tomorrow and claiming entire industries are already dead, when they won't be dead for decades.  That's the difference.

[Tugg Speedman]

You are using raw numbers....out of how many drivers, time, miles, etc are humans killed on the road?  Very low.  Extremely low.  Will automated cars be better?  Perhaps...at what cost, however?  You don't seem to factor that in.  

Look, I just gave you a few articles that show what they can do.  I'm not claiming anything, this thing called the FBI is confirming it.  Or an actual demonstration with 60 minutes a few years ago.  Now, is that a reason not to move forward with it?  Of course not, nor did I say that.  But the absurdity here that it CANNOT HAPPEN, is pure horsecrap.  Of course it can, and already has.

I've embraced change my whole life Heisenburg, I just don't run around with my head cut off at the next new change and come on here proclaiming it's all going to be done by tomorrow and claiming entire industries are already dead, when they won't be dead for decades.  That's the difference.

How is the photography, book selling, newspaper, travel agency, electronics retailing, video rental and music industry doing?  What purpose does the public library serve today?  Auto Nation, the largest car dealership in the country, says the most important thing driving new car sales ... Connectivity and how it interfaces with a smart phone.  Your industry is getting flattened by cord cutters.  

Regarding the technology discussed here, see a few posts above, the world will be radically different in 2030, just like it is radical different now from 2000.

Speaking of 2000 ... Google, Apple and social media essentially did not exist 15 years ago.  Broadband was unheard of, now my phone moves at broadband speeds.  Peter Diamandis, author of BOLD and a big Silicon Valley thinker, correctly notes that a mobile phone today on an LTE network has more, deeper and faster information than the president of the United States could Marshall 20 years ago using all the resources of the United States government.  In 20 years a 12 year with a mobile phone in Mumbai will have more info than Obama can demand from his advisors today.  Epic change is coming. (Side note, Diamandis has an MD degree from Havard, to go with an engineering degree from MIT, and he is leading the charge for automated robot surgery),

It's 15 years away.  Start changing.

[ChicosBailBonds]

How is the photography, book selling, newspaper, travel agency, electronics retailing, video rental and music industry doing?  What purpose does the public library serve today?  Auto Nation, the largest car dealership in the country, says the most important thing driving new car sales ... Connectivity and how it interfaces with a smart phone.  Your industry is getting flattened by cord cutters. 

Regarding the technology discussed here, see a few posts above, the world will be radically different in 2030, just like it is radical different now from 2000.

Speaking of 2000 ... Google, Apple and social media essentially did not exist 15 years ago.  Broadband was unheard of, now my phone moves at broadband speeds.  Peter Diamandis, author of BOLD and a big Silicon Valley thinker correctly notes that a mobile phone today on an LTE network has more, deeper and faster information than the president of the United States could Marshall 20 years ago using all the resources of the United States government.  In 20 years a 12 year with a mobile phone in Mumbai will have more info than Obama can demand from his advisors today.  Epic change is coming. (Side note, Diamandis has an MD degree from Havard, to go with an engineering degree from MIT, and he is leading the charge for robot is surgery),

It's 15 years away.  Start changing.

It was you who said the taxi system was dead, not it isn't.  It may die, but it isn't dead.  You said DVDs were dead.  No they aren't.  They will be, but they aren't yet.  Newspapers, etc, sure they are dying, but not dead yet.  I just think you get way ahead of yourself.

No one is denying the change, but that doesn't mean it is here tomorrow, either.  Tremendous costs go into this. It's like the yahoos that said electric cars would be at 1 million by 2015 and it fell MASSIVELY short.  GM said just just last week it expects to fall short of its goal of 500K electric cars by 2017.   

Technology is great.  We all get it, but this is a huge country in population and territory.  Huge amounts of money to make this stuff happen. HUGE.  That means it takes time, a LONG TIME. 

Verizon just bought AOL last week.....they pick up 2.2 million dialup customers.  There are still 2.2 dial up customers in 2015, a hell of a lot more of them then people driving electric cars.  AOL generates $600 million a hear from their dial-up customers. 

Change is inevitable, I don't know why you continue to label me as someone who doesn't want it or ignores it.  You couldn't be further from the truth. I wouldn't be in the space I'm in if that was the case, I would have stayed where I was and milked it for the next 15 years easily.  You're talking to a guy that several years ago put solar panels on his roof, that has 4K, has 3D (even though it bombed), adopted BluRay way before it was a standard and told people here years ago that HD DVD was not the answer, etc, etc.   

But there is a difference with technology coming, embracing change and how fast and what impact it is going to happen in a certain timeline.  The economic realities, the geographic size, the sheer number of people make it an enormous ship to turn.

[GooooMarquette]

Seems like some people here have never heard of denial of service attacks....which have occurred against banks and other companies with very sophisticated systems.

If everyone in America was dependent on computerized cars to get around-the trauma surgeon getting to the hospital to take care of a gunshot patient, pregnant women trying to get to the hospital to deliver their babies, the fiftysomething-year-old man trying to get to the hospital with crushing chest pain-a simple denial of service attack that shut down all the cars for a while could cost plenty of lives.

You don't need a hacker to take control of the cars...just someone who could shut them down for a while.  Plenty of lives, and incredible financial costs.

Not all change is good.

[#UnleashSean]

Seems like some people here have never heard of denial of service attacks....which have occurred against banks and other companies with very sophisticated systems.

If everyone in America was dependent on computerized cars to get around-the trauma surgeon getting to the hospital to take care of a gunshot patient, pregnant women trying to get to the hospital to deliver their babies, the fiftysomething-year-old man trying to get to the hospital with crushing chest pain-a simple denial of service attack that shut down all the cars for a while could cost plenty of lives.

You don't need a hacker to take control of the cars...just someone who could shut them down for a while.  Plenty of lives, and incredible financial costs.

Not all change is good.

ddosing clogs people from accessing a network. Not the websites functionality. If my home internet gets ddosed, I can't access the outside world. My computer still functions. A self driving car can still drive itself with a ddos.

How old are you, I need to know in order to better gauge the intelligence level of what I'm dealing with.

[muwarrior69]

It's already happened with cars and now planes.  Earlier in this thread a pilot said it could not happen.  Ooops...already has.

Of course it can, anyone is naive to think it cannot.

Yup! Here is another....

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/05/18/fbi-affidavit-claims-security-expert-admitted-to-briefly-hacking-flight/

[#UnleashSean]

Yup! Here is another....

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/05/18/fbi-affidavit-claims-security-expert-admitted-to-briefly-hacking-flight/

Sounds like the dude tried to hack into the entertainment system, which would not be connected to the flight computer. He just said at one point he was able to make the plane go sideways. Though absolutely no proof of this exists.

[Tugg Speedman]

General comment about the techno-luddites in this thread ....

So a suicidal co-pilot crashes a plane and yet I don't hear you demanding psychological testing and a complete invasion of the privacy of cockpit personnel to prevent this from happening again.  Are you resigning yourself that was a tragedy and then shrug your shoulders and buy a plane ticket to fly again when necessary.

At the same time one guy hacked a plane's entertainment system and probably watched Pitch Perfect for free so that means we have to stop the entire movement toward pilot-less planes because he claims (but cannot be proven) that he took over the controls of the plane.  (If that was possible, it will be corrected shortly, if not already.)

What I'm saying is human pilots are way to dangerous (as are human drivers) and we have to do everything we can to get them out of the cockpit and off the roads.  The level of human mistakes is unacceptably high.  Until now we had no choice but accept this risk.  Now, for the first time, we have a real solution.

Oh, and ditto this with surgeons and robotic surgery.

Finally, are you against driving (or riding in) new cars?  They are made almost entirely by robots with little human intervention.  Aren't you afraid a hacker will break-in and program them to make incorrect wields make and the car unsafe?

Where do these imaginary fears end?

[ChicosBailBonds]

General comment about the techno-luddites in this thread ....

So a suicidal co-pilot crashes a plane and yet I don't hear you demanding psychological testing and a complete invasion of the privacy of cockpit personnel to prevent this from happening again.  Are you resigning yourself that was a tragedy and then shrug your shoulders and buy a plane ticket to fly again when necessary.

At the same time one guy hacked a plane's entertainment system and probably watched Pitch Perfect for free so that means we have to stop the entire movement toward pilot-less planes because he claims (but cannot be proven) that he took over the controls of the plane.  (If that was possible, it will be corrected shortly, if not already.)

What I'm saying is human pilots are way to dangerous (as are human drivers) and we have to do everything we can to get them out of the cockpit and off the roads.  The level of human mistakes is unacceptably high.  Until now we had no choice but accept this risk.  Now, for the first time, we have a real solution.

Oh, and ditto this with surgeons and robotic surgery.

Finally, are you against driving (or riding in) new cars?  They are made almost entirely by robots with little human intervention.  Aren't you afraid a hacker will break-in and program them to make incorrect wields make and the car unsafe?

Where do these imaginary fears end?

My God, no one said anything of the kind.  No one..  Absolutely NO ONE. 

[Tugg Speedman]

My God, no one said anything of the kind.  No one..  Absolutely NO ONE. 

So no one think driverless cars and pilot-less planes will not save lives, money and time?

[ChicosBailBonds]

So no one think driverless cars and pilot-less planes will not save lives, money and time?

It might do all those things.  It also might not.  I figure whatever study comes out on this, multiply it by 3 on the cost and at least by 2.5 on the timing when it will be ready to go.  For these things to happen, you need it done in mass to get the costs down.  When is that tipping point?  etc, etc.   Sure, theoretically all these things might happen, we could even argue they are likely to happen.  Question to me is when?  I think the horizon is way farther out than you have it. 

[#UnleashSean]

It might do all those things.  It also might not.  I figure whatever study comes out on this, multiply it by 3 on the cost and at least by 2.5 on the timing when it will be ready to go.  For these things to happen, you need it done in mass to get the costs down.  When is that tipping point?  etc, etc.   Sure, theoretically all these things might happen, we could even argue they are likely to happen.  Question to me is when?  I think the horizon is way farther out than you have it. 

It took cars around 70 years to be commonplace, it took computers 50, it took cell phones around 20, it took smart phones 4 years, it took tablets 2, it seems that we are way quicker to adapt to advancement.

[Tugg Speedman]

It might do all those things.  It also might not.  I figure whatever study comes out on this, multiply it by 3 on the cost and at least by 2.5 on the timing when it will be ready to go.  For these things to happen, you need it done in mass to get the costs down.  When is that tipping point?  etc, etc.   Sure, theoretically all these things might happen, we could even argue they are likely to happen.  Question to me is when?  I think the horizon is way farther out than you have it. 

Google Moore's law and understand that this the most Important concept in our economy you are not factoring in.

Uber started four years ago.  Now valued at 50 billion, more than every taxi company in the U.S. Combined.  How it went to start up to that valuation and this disruptive to a 100+ year old business in less than 5 years in one of the most amazing stories in the history of capitalism.  Has any start up destroyed an existing industry (not company, but industry) this fast?  The digital camera took longer to kill off Kodak and Polariod.

But because CBB still sees money losing dinosaurs traditional taxis hanging on after the asteroid hit does mean they will survive.  We are just arguing when the last one dies.  I'll guess less than 5 years.