Last Possession Big East Games

[Dr. Blackheart]

Of Marquette's last 15 Big East games, eleven have been last or near last possession games (4 points or less or OT). Eight of the eleven have been losses, but MU has won just one of the last nine close ones. Five games have been in OT. Of the eleven close ones, six were from this season already, with only the Creighton win.

Just brutal. Brutal for a rookie coach. Brutal for a team with limited go to guys. Brutal for the young players who are exposed in tight games. Brutal for the fans who live or die for the team. One free throw, one time out, one layup, one foul, one 50/50 call, one turnover, one set play. Crazy.

[MarquetteDano]

Wow.  That is a lot.  I remember the announcers for the Butler game saying something like more than 70% of the Big East games have been within five points this season.  So some of it is the nature of the league.

I wonder how we stack up compared to everyone else?  We must be near the top of the list in close games.

[GGGG]

And this is why I am not terribly worried about Wojo's coaching ability or him "losing the team."  They aren't playing like a team who is lost.  They are playing like a team that doesn't have the horses or experience right now.

[MerrittsMustache]

Young players need to learn how to win. Very rarely do inexperienced teams excel at closing games out. Coming into this season, MU had 2 players who had ever averaged more than 13.5 mpg in their college careers. Not surprisingly, those two are without a doubt MU's two most consistent players. In addition, MU has a rookie head coach running his system with someone else's guys. Not to set the bar too low, but the fact that this team isn't getting dominated by tested, veteran teams like Butler, StJ, Xavier, MSU, etc speaks to just how close this team is. 

[Lennys Tap]

And this is why I am not terribly worried about Wojo's coaching ability or him "losing the team."  They aren't playing like a team who is lost.  They are playing like a team that doesn't have the horses or experience right now.

+1

[Lennys Tap]

Young players need to learn how to win. Very rarely do inexperienced teams excel at closing games out. Coming into this season, MU had 2 players who had ever averaged more than 13.5 mpg in their college careers. Not surprisingly, those two are without a doubt MU's two most consistent players. In addition, MU has a rookie head coach running his system with someone else's guys. Not to set the bar too low, but the fact that this team isn't getting dominated by tested, veteran teams like Butler, StJ, Xavier, MSU, etc speaks to just how close this team is. 

+1. You and Sultan nailed it.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Wow.  That is a lot.  I remember the announcers for the Butler game saying something like more than 70% of the Big East games have been within five points this season.  So some of it is the nature of the league.

I wonder how we stack up compared to everyone else?  We must be near the top of the list in close games.

It seems like Buzz always had a large amount of close games, but last season MU had six OT games in the Big East which were the most.  I think some of the reasons are what have been mentioned here...one other big one I feel is the home and home schedules in the reconfigured and smaller Big East. Teams know each other, need to plan for only nine teams times two, the other coaches have been in the leaugue and know past tendencies, etc.

Pomeroy says MU is/was one of unluckiest teams this year and last (basically, the negative or positive unexplained in his model for each team or random error in stats talk). It is tough league for a rookie coach and staff as it is, but it is time to start winning some of these.  MU is due in the back half here.

[brewcity77]

As some have already mentioned, this is why I'm not worried. Yeah, it sucks coming out on the losing side every time. Leaving the BC has just been brutal the past week and a half. But for a team that most of us consider to be not very good, 6 of our 7 conference losses were one or two possession games (OT for me is 1 possession no matter the final score). The breaks went against us, which has us at 2-7, but we could just as easily be 8-1. The only team that really took us behind the woodshed was Seton Hall, and that entire game was decided in a 4-minute 17-2 stretch to start the second half.

This team is still competing. This team is still fighting. But they're young, the roster is thin, and it's the first year of a new program. I can only imagine how much chest thumping would be going on here if we had held on against DePaul, Xavier, and St. John's, if we had scored one more regulation point against Georgetown and Butler, and we were 7-2 and all alone atop the conference.

We didn't, so we aren't, but anyone that thinks the staff has lost the team or there isn't reason for optimism simply isn't watching the same games I have. We're close, we're just not there yet.

[MerrittsMustache]

It seems like Buzz always had a large amount of close games, but last season MU had six OT games in the Big East which were the most.  I think some of the reasons are what have been mentioned here...one other big one I feel is the home and home schedules in the reconfigured and smaller Big East. Teams know each other, need to plan for only nine teams times two, the other coaches have been in the leaugue and know past tendencies, etc.

Pomeroy says MU is/was one of unluckiest teams this year and last (basically, the negative or positive unexplained in his model for each team or random error in stats talk). It is tough league for a rookie coach and staff as it is, but it is time to start winning some of these.  MU is due in the back half here.

Exactly. Even in the Creighton game, they didn't exactly close it out strongly. They had an 8-point lead before allowing a 14-3 run over 9 minutes. Even after Carlino hit the eventual game-winner, Creighton got a really good look at the basket plus a tip-in attempt. Similar to how it was good for Juan to hit a couple 3s in garbage time against SHU, it'll be good for MU's psyche if they can get an open look and a shot to fall when attempting to hold on in crunch time. They need one of those.

[GGGG]

One really only needs to look at Butler's turn around this year.  Get the talented players more experience, give the coach another season to figure out his team and implement his concepts, and the results speak for themselves.

[Henry Sugar]

There's no statistical relationship between experience and luck.

[Dr. Blackheart]

There's no statistical relationship between experience and luck.

Yep. The five most experienced teams in the BE according to Pomeroy are:  SJU at 2.38, Creighton at 2.06, Butler at 1.97, DePaul at 1.89 and MU at. 1.86 years.  Four of those teams are in the bottom of the Big East standings.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I might add in terms of "luck"...this guy helped in so many ways...

http://youtu.be/2R7hgZZQ3io

[NersEllenson]

One really only needs to look at Butler's turn around this year.  Get the talented players more experience, give the coach another season to figure out his team and implement his concepts, and the results speak for themselves.

Except Butler has a new (and much better coach this year), playing guys that weren't his recruits.  Oops.

[BM1090]

Except Butler has a new (and much better coach this year), playing guys that weren't his recruits.  Oops.

True, but much more important is the return of their best player from a season ending injury. Jones and Dunham are better than anyone on MU.

[MU82]

True, but much more important is the return of their best player from a season ending injury. Jones and Dunham are better than anyone on MU.

He conveniently ignores that. If we had Jones and Dunham, one a scale of 1-10 ranking our best players, Jones would be a 9, Dunham would be an 8 and Carlino would be, what?, a 5? Please.

I do think their coach is doing a fine job, though. Last year, they had a first-year coach and no Jones and things didn't go very well, did they? I wonder how Creighton would have done without McDermott last season. Jones isn't at that level offensively, but he's a hell of a player and he certainly would have been first-team all-Big East, as he will be this year.

[GGGG]

He conveniently ignores that. If we had Jones and Dunham, one a scale of 1-10 ranking our best players, Jones would be a 9, Dunham would be an 8 and Carlino would be, what?, a 5? Please.

I do think their coach is doing a fine job, though. Last year, they had a first-year coach and no Jones and things didn't go very well, did they? I wonder how Creighton would have done without McDermott last season. Jones isn't at that level offensively, but he's a hell of a player and he certainly would have been first-team all-Big East, as he will be this year.

Butler's current coach was an assistant last year.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

As a Butler poster stated on here a few days ago (I am paraphrasing), "If you guys just made half of the bunnies or point blank layups missed, it wouldn't have even been a game."  Unfortunately, this applies to nearly every Big East loss this year and several last year.  The margin for error has been so thin with these teams, yet they always seems to miss well over 5 bunnies per game.  It is the difference, sadly.

[NersEllenson]

He conveniently ignores that. If we had Jones and Dunham, one a scale of 1-10 ranking our best players, Jones would be a 9, Dunham would be an 8 and Carlino would be, what?, a 5? Please.

I do think their coach is doing a fine job, though. Last year, they had a first-year coach and no Jones and things didn't go very well, did they? I wonder how Creighton would have done without McDermott last season. Jones isn't at that level offensively, but he's a hell of a player and he certainly would have been first-team all-Big East, as he will be this year.

Except Carlino ranks ahead of both Jones and Dunham per Bama's Value Add stats...

[Windyplayer]

Young players need to learn how to win. Very rarely do inexperienced teams excel at closing games out. Coming into this season, MU had 2 players who had ever averaged more than 13.5 mpg in their college careers. Not surprisingly, those two are without a doubt MU's two most consistent players. In addition, MU has a rookie head coach running his system with someone else's guys. Not to set the bar too low, but the fact that this team isn't getting dominated by tested, veteran teams like Butler, StJ, Xavier, MSU, etc speaks to just how close this team is. 

Consistently what? And I'm not referring to Carlino.

[Benny B]

This is why I love college basketball.  Sometimes the ball bounces your way, sometimes it doesn't.  Sometimes it bounces the other way eleven times before it can bounce your way four times.   But as fans, players, coaches, etc., we must tolerate, remember and learn from these times of misery for when the tide turns - and it inevitably will -- it will increase the joy and experience of accomplishment exponentially.

While contemplating what had just happened the evening of March 29, 2003, it seemed much more significant considering the turn of events on the afternoons of March 20th and 22nd previous.

[MU82]

Except Carlino ranks ahead of both Jones and Dunham per Bama's Value Add stats...

So?