Sandy vs JJJ

[Henry Sugar]

Back on topic of Sandy vs JJJ

I don't regard a substitution effect between the two players. They are different kinds of players right now.

• JJJ is a high-volume (25% usage), low efficient (ORtg of 89) player. Ugh. That's the worst. Seriously, my least favorite type of player
• Sandy is a role-player, low-volume (15% usage), but high efficient (ORtg of 115). That's a good beginning.

Typically, I'd say that the numbers favor Sandy in a slam dunk. However, there are other considerations to make.

How will these players grow over the next few years?

• Will JJJ improve his efficiency while keeping his usage high? If he can get his efficiency better with a high usage, that's a senior year super-star
• Can Cohen keep his efficiency high while increasing his usage? Typically, increased usage leads to less efficiency.

In addition, despite the shortcomings of JJJ, I'd like to note that he has already had two exceptional games this year (Tennessee-Martin; North Dakota). I calculate both games as top 10%-type games. His six game stretch from ASU through Providence was net positive in every game. He's had a rough four game stretch, but so has pretty much everyone not named Carlino. I still calculate JJJ as the fourth most productive member of the team so far.

Last, JJJ is pretty solid (nationally ranked) with his assist rate and steal rate. Ideally he backs off some of the shots and cuts down on the TOs.

[GGGG]

Hello.  As many of you have reported, you don't like Ners' commentary on Derrick Wilson. 

New Rule:  Before you click "report to moderator" please click the button underneath the individual whose prose so irritates you.

If, for some reason,  the "ignore" function is not operational for you, then yes, please alert the moderators.

I find it funny that you ban a guy for bringing Derrick into every thread.  He comes back 30 days later and does the same thing all over again.  But then you get pissed at the people who point it out to you. 

[MerrittsMustache]

Back on topic of Sandy vs JJJ

I don't regard a substitution effect between the two players. They are different kinds of players right now.

• JJJ is a high-volume (25% usage), low efficient (ORtg of 89) player. Ugh. That's the worst. Seriously, my least favorite type of player
• Sandy is a role-player, low-volume (15% usage), but high efficient (ORtg of 115). That's a good beginning.

Typically, I'd say that the numbers favor Sandy in a slam dunk. However, there are other considerations to make.

How will these players grow over the next few years?

• Will JJJ improve his efficiency while keeping his usage high? If he can get his efficiency better with a high usage, that's a senior year super-star
• Can Cohen keep his efficiency high while increasing his usage? Typically, increased usage leads to less efficiency.

In addition, despite the shortcomings of JJJ, I'd like to note that he has already had two exceptional games this year (Tennessee-Martin; North Dakota). I calculate both games as top 10%-type games. His six game stretch from ASU through Providence was net positive in every game. He's had a rough four game stretch, but so has pretty much everyone not named Carlino. I still calculate JJJ as the fourth most productive member of the team so far.

Last, JJJ is pretty solid (nationally ranked) with his assist rate and steal rate. Ideally he backs off some of the shots and cuts down on the TOs.

Good post. IMO, JJJ needs to take a deep breath, stop forcing things and just start playing basketball. I really think he's going to be fine.

[bilsu]

Derrick is playing a guard position.  Period.  JJJ and Cohen are also guards.  You move Duane to PG, and shift 20 of Derrick's minutes to Cohen/JJJ.

Like it or not, both JJJ and Cohen are more talented than Derrick.  Period.  Talent wins games.  Our team would be so much more dynamic with this lineup:

St. John's has a lot more talent than us and they have the same record as us in the Big East.

[GGGG]

Good post. IMO, JJJ needs to take a deep breath, stop forcing things and just start playing basketball. I really think he's going to be fine.

Completely agree.

[Lennys Tap]

All this BS about Derrick vs JJJ or "grooming" Duane is just that. Want a few less minutes for Derrick and a few more for Duane? Reasonable. Nobody would bitch about that. But this JJJ for Derrick stuff is insane. They don't remotely play the same position. JJJ and Sandy do. Here's how they stack up vs one another in Big East play:

                Min   FG   FGA  FG%  3s  Att   3%  TO   TO/40 Min

JJJ              86   10    36    27      0   11    0    12      5.6

Sandy         84    8     17    47      4    9    44    3       1.4

They've both score 20 points on field goals but JJJ has taken more than twice as many shots. Sandy is an excellent 3 point shooter. JJJ is as bad as a player can be. Sandy's turnovers/minutes is excellent. JJJ is a turnover machine.

They (together) average 34 minutes per game (each has 1 DNP). Want to bump that to maybe 40? Fine. Take 3 away from Juan and 3 from Derrick. But the split should be 25-30 Sandy and 10-15 JJJ based on their performance in the games. JJJ is an awesome athlete. He has the "wow" factor (see Carlton Christian) that many fall in love with. But even dismissing his attitude/practice habits he's not getting it done on the floor. Until he is, let's have more Sandy and less JJJ.

Wondered how JJJ faired shooting from deep against Big East opponents last year. Thought maybe this year was an anomaly. It wasn't. He had a lot of DNPs in conference games last year but he still managed to put up 7 three pointers - and missed them all. He's now 0-18 from 3 in his Big East career - and he's a SHOOTING guard.

[HutchwasClutch]

I think JJJ needs to find a low D-1 program for a transfer following this year.  He's on an 8 man roster and his minutes are decreasing.  He's had every opportunity and then some to show he can play and it isn't happening.  It's not like he's buried behind all these good, more experience players.  If he can't show something on this team, he's a lost cause.  And I believe he's a lost cause.

[tower912]

JJJ is a very quick offensive player.   He doesn't finish at the rim with his left hand as well as Duane.   Right now, his jumper isn't going in and he has no mid range game.   So, either he gets to the rim with his right hand or he doesn't score.   With his athleticism, hone the jumper, develop a left, and learn a mid-range jumper, a la Vander.   JJJ is a marginally better defender, as he has a knack for getting into the passing lanes and generating steals.   He is bad in man defense.    I haven't given up on him, but he has to put in the work and expand his game.
Sandy is a better shooter and has shown the willingness to attack the rack with reckless abandon.   Wojo praises his work ethic and attitude.   He is longer.   His defense is coming along but is not good yet.    
I like them both.     As Sandy is only a freshman and JJJ is a sophomore, I like Sandy's chances of maxing out his talent more than I like JJJ's.

[brewcity77]

So .. what you're saying is that it only works like 80% of the time, and that's not worth it?

If the 20% is utterly ridiculous, I can see the argument of those that would say no.

That said, some of the attacks on our players seem more than a bit OTT and I can also understand those that would rather defend our players than simply bury their heads in the sand and act like the comments don't exist. I have used the ignore feature, but for different reasons than that.

Either way, not everyone will put him on ignore, and some will continue to engage the debate, so whether a handful do or not, it will continue

[HutchwasClutch]

Sandy is going to be a huge contributor to this program.  His mistakes now, mostly defensively, to me seem to be solely due to inexperience.  His length, ball handling, shooting ability from deep, and athleticism are impossible to miss.  You don't score 12 pts in about 12 minutes like he did against Providence unless you're a serious ballplayer (those were all difficult shots he made too, no bunnies).  JJJ maybe could score 12 in 12  in CYO ball, maybe.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wondered how JJJ faired shooting from deep against Big East opponents last year. Thought maybe this year was an anomaly. It wasn't. He had a lot of DNPs in conference games last year but he still managed to put up 7 three pointers - and missed them all. He's now 0-18 from 3 in his Big East career - and he's a SHOOTING guard.

I think you missed a few. I have JjJ as 2-11 in conference play last season. Hit one against Providence and one at Villanova.

Still garbage numbers, for sure.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Sandy is going to be a huge contributor to this program.  His mistakes now, mostly defensively, to me seem to be solely due to inexperience.  His length, ball handling, shooting ability from deep, and athleticism are impossible to miss.  You don't score 12 pts in about 12 minutes like he did against Providence unless you're a serious ballplayer (those were all difficult shots he made too, no bunnies).  JJJ maybe could score 12 in 12  in CYO ball, maybe.

Read Sugar's post again.

[HutchwasClutch]

Read Sugar's post again.

What, increase useage leads to less efficiency?  I presume you mean that.

Well no kidding, my point is you have to have serious talent and ability to do what he did against Providence, and again, all on difficult and variety of shots.  Of course that's not going to be the norm, but it's clearly an indicator of how good he's going to be with more experience. 

[mu_hilltopper]

I find it funny that you ban a guy for bringing Derrick into every thread.  He comes back 30 days later and does the same thing all over again.  But then you get pissed at the people who point it out to you.  

I didn't ban him, rocky did.  And, I'm not pissed.  

I want to remind people to use the ignore button.   We get "flags" all the time for 4-5 different posters not because a poster has broken rules (http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=3.0) but because the reporter is just downright irked due to the content they'd rather not see.

That's where the ignore button comes in.

[Henry Sugar]

That's where the ignore button comes in.

I love the ignore button so much. It has really enhanced my Scoop reading pleasure.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

What, increase useage leads to less efficiency?  I presume you mean that.

Well no kidding, my point is you have to have serious talent and ability to do what he did against Providence, and again, all on difficult and variety of shots.  Of course that's not going to be the norm, but it's clearly an indicator of how good he's going to be with more experience. 

Actually, I was talking about JJJ's 2 outstanding games, and good 6 game stretch.

If you're this excited about Sandy's good performances, why aren't you excited about JJJ?

As I told you in the other thread, these kids have played less than 1/2 of their college games. They have serious limitations/holes right now. Doesn't mean they won't be productive later on.

[HutchwasClutch]

Actually, I was talking about JJJ's 2 outstanding games, and good 6 game stretch.

If you're this excited about Sandy's good performances, why aren't you excited about JJJ?

As I told you in the other thread, these kids have played less than 1/2 of their college games. They have serious limitations/holes right now. Doesn't mean they won't be productive later on.

Outstanding games- agains UT Martin & North Dakota?  Impressive, like the true Horizon Leaguer he is.  I don't know what 6 game stretch you're referring to because he's never put that many good games together, or close.  He had some decent games, but again against garbage competition.

Put aside your MU blinders and judge him objectively.  I love MU basketball, but I'm not going to let myself be duped into thinking guys are better than they are because they wear the uniform of the program I'm a die hard fan of. 

[mu-rara]

I didn't ban him, rocky did.  And, I'm not pissed.  

I want to remind people to use the ignore button.   We get "flags" all the time for 4-5 different posters not because a poster has broken rules (http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=3.0) but because the reporter is just downright irked due to the content they'd rather not see.

That's where the ignore button comes in.

I hear you Topper and I have had Ners on ignore for a year.  Scoop is just better when Ners isn't polluting it.

[Lennys Tap]

How will these players grow over the next few years?

• Will JJJ improve his efficiency while keeping his usage high? If he can get his efficiency better with a high usage, that's a senior year super-star
• Can Cohen keep his efficiency high while increasing his usage? Typically, increased usage leads to less efficiency.

High usage + high efficiency = star.

Low usage + high efficiency = solid role player

Low usage + low efficiency = limited role player

High usage + low efficiency = disaster.

Serious question - how much does a 25% usage, 89 oRTG guy hurt a team? Are there any guys right now in D1 ball with that bad a combination playing 20+ minutes other than JJJ?

I understand JJJ's potential. If he improves his handle and stops taking tons of shot he can't make he could be a star. But IMO you don't reward a guy who plays out of control with MORE minutes. Cut back his PT, and reward him with more as/if he earns it. Otherwise you're giving away games.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Outstanding games- agains UT Martin & North Dakota?  Impressive, like the true Horizon Leaguer he is.  I don't know what 6 game stretch you're referring to because he's never put that many good games together, or close.  He had some decent games, but again against garbage competition.

Put aside your MU blinders and judge him objectively. 

It's a bit ironic, because we have 1 poster who wants JJJ to get 35+ mpg, and then we have another (you) who presumably wants him to get as few as possible and hope he doesn't come back.

Truthfully, objectively, I think Henry Sugar's stats tell the story. JJJ's a kid with some upside, but he's very inconsistent and he's still learning to play at this level.

The SJU game was a microcosm. Great dunk, poor defensive execution seconds later.

Now, if he was a Senior, I'd agree that he's a finished project and not really good.

But, he's a SOPH. He's barely 1/2 way through his soph. season.

Might be a little early to write him off, right?

[HutchwasClutch]

It's a bit ironic, because we have 1 poster who wants JJJ to get 35+ mpg, and then we have another (you) who presumably wants him to get as few as possible and hope he doesn't come back.

Truthfully, objectively, I think Henry Sugar's stats tell the story. JJJ's a kid with some upside, but he's very inconsistent and he's still learning to play at this level.

The SJU game was a microcosm. Great dunk, poor defensive execution seconds later.

Now, if he was a Senior, I'd agree that he's a finished project and not really good.

But, he's a SOPH. He's barely 1/2 way through his soph. season.

Might be a little early to write him off, right?

Wrong.  We'll agree to disagree, but I am very confident that when all is said and done, I'll be 100% correct about him right now.

[MerrittsMustache]

Wrong.  We'll agree to disagree, but I am very confident that when all is said and done, I'll be 100% correct about him right now.

I smell a Scoop wager coming up!

[brewcity77]

Serious question - how much does a 25% usage, 89 oRTG guy hurt a team? Are there any guys right now in D1 ball with that bad a combination playing 20+ minutes other than JJJ?

The #1 guy in terms of usage is Elon's Elijah Bryant, with a 41.0% usage rate and 87.4 ORtg. In Elon's 10 losses, his missed shots and turnovers have clearly killed the team.

In terms of high-majors, the biggest killer combination I saw was Milwaukee native Cinmeon Bowers. 30.7% usage rate, 88.6 ORtg. I haven't watched a ton of Auburn, but I wonder if his usage is inflated a bit (like Gardner's was) because of offensive rebounds. He's #23 in the country in offensive rebound percentage, and even better (#4) in defensive rebound percentage. While his shooting sucks for a big man (45% from 2, 12.5% from 3) his rebounding ability likely keeps him on the floor.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Wrong.  We'll agree to disagree, but I am very confident that when all is said and done, I'll be 100% correct about him right now.

Define 100% correct.

He's not going to be on the roster next season?

[Henry Sugar]

High usage + high efficiency = star.

Low usage + high efficiency = solid role player

Low usage + low efficiency = limited roleBench player

High usage + low efficiency = disaster.

Serious question - how much does a 25% usage, 89 oRTG guy hurt a team? Are there any guys right now in D1 ball with that bad a combination playing 20+ minutes other than JJJ?

I understand JJJ's potential. If he improves his handle and stops taking tons of shot he can't make he could be a star. But IMO you don't reward a guy who plays out of control with MORE minutes. Cut back his PT, and reward him with more as/if he earns it. Otherwise you're giving away games.

I don't think anyone is arguing for more minutes for JJJ. However, I do believe that right now people are suffering from availability bias about him. He has had a rough stretch of four games. Before that, he was pretty good for six straight games.

I don't know how much a high usage, low efficiency player hurts a generic team. However, I still calculate JJJ as the fourth most productive member of the team so far.

The most useful comparison for him in my mind is Jerel McNeal. McNeal had a higher usage rate than JJJ, and was also poor efficiently his freshmen and sophomore seasons. Once McNeal got to be a junior, he was a good player.