What to make from these first two games

[Pakuni]

Look, I'm comparing thier oRTG to shed some light on the huge difference of ability between Gardner and Otule when measured against the miniscule difference between their perceived defensive value which is minute.  This really has nothing to do with who got drafted to the NBA.  The world is full of NCAAB stars who can't make it in the NBA.  McDermott is no different and will soon be out of the league.

Define "soon."

[mattyv1908]

This, this and this again.
Advanced stats are great and all, but when they're used to imply in even the slightest sense that Davante Gardner had a comparable impact to Doug McDermott, it's time to actually watch a game.

Last night's advanced stats were in some key ways very ugly, but I feel much better about how the team performed last night than I did after watching last year's Buckeye beatdown.

If you think I'm trying to compare Gardner to McDermott your reading comprehension needs work - or you're finding confirmation bias to your aversion to stats.

I was comparing Gardner to Otule and simply used McDermott as a reference point to how efficient Gardner's offensive productivity was.

[mattyv1908]

Define "soon."

Jae Crowder 'soon' Pakuni.

In other words, a draft pick who will be a limited role player for a few years and is only remembered for their college career.

Perhaps Van Horn would be a better comparison.

[Pakuni]

If you think I'm trying to compare Gardner to McDermott your reading comprehension needs work - or you're finding confirmation bias to your aversion to stats.

I was comparing Gardner to Otule and simply used McDermott as a reference point to how efficient Gardner's offensive productivity was.

So, you write "Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott" and then indignantly argue that you weren't making a comparison?

My reading comprehension isn't the problem here. Your understanding of the word "than," on the other hand, could use some work.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/than

[MerrittsMustache]

Jae Crowder 'soon' Pakuni.

In other words, a draft pick who will be a limited role player for a few years and is only remembered for their college career.

Perhaps Van Horn would be a better comparison.

Keith Van Horn played 9 seasons in the NBA and averaged 16 points and 7 boards. As a Bulls fan, I'd take those numbers from McDermott in a second (and so would he).

[Pakuni]

Jae Crowder 'soon' Pakuni.

In other words, a draft pick who will be a limited role player for a few years and is only remembered for their college career.

Perhaps Van Horn would be a better comparison.

Keith Van Horn played nine NBA seasons and started 463 out of 575 games (about 81 percent).
His career averages were 16 ppg/6.8 rpg, and he averaged 18/8 his first five seasons.

Anyone who predicted less than one month into Van Horn's career that he would be a "limited role player" and "soon out of the league" was proved to be a complete idiot.

[Aughnanure]

So, you write "Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott" and then indignantly argue that you weren't making a comparison?

My reading comprehension isn't the problem here. Your understanding of the word "than," on the other hand, could use some work.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/than

Oh come on. You know what he means.

[Pakuni]

Oh come on. You know what he means.

Yes, I know he meant to compare Davante to McDermott.
He's not so sure, though.

[mattyv1908]

Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?

Now obviously you can see how you evidently misunderstood, ignored, omitted intentionally, or blatantly disregarded the essence of this portion of my statement which was referring to the defense/offense substitution patterns Buzz Williams employed with Gardner and Otule which I didn't agree with when the numbers didn't warrant the usage of this substitution pattern.

I'll forgive you of your petulant attitude if you'll overlook my typo.  Deal?
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/petulant

[Big Papi]

The defense last night was bad.  Is it the players?  The coach? Learning curve on a new system?  Without a doubt, Wojo's defensive style looks more like Crean's system than Buzz's system.  Looks like we are playing the passing lanes looking for more deflections and turnovers.  Not my preferred defensive style but it will take time for the team to play that system well.

What I was disappointed about was the transition defense.  There was no desire to get back quickly.  That is unacceptable.  Jujuan makes a great steal....dribbles twice, gets pick pocketed and then just quits and sulks as it quickly becomes a 3 on 1 the other way.  Where's the heart?   Why does Carlino have to talk about heart and not giving up the last couple minutes of the game?     Wojo has the heart and desire.  I am going to say Carlino does as well.  If Wojo can't get it out of the rest of his players, they will be asked to leave.  

[Pakuni]

Now obviously you can see how you evidently misunderstood, ignored, omitted intentionally, or blatantly disregarded the essence of this portion of my statement which was referring to the defense/offense substitution patterns Buzz Williams employed with Gardner and Otule which I didn't agree with when the numbers didn't warrant the usage of this substitution pattern.

I'll forgive you of your petulant attitude if you'll overlook my typo.  Deal?
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/petulant

http://www.wisebread.com/change-your-life-by-learning-how-to-admit-youre-wrong

[willie warrior]

Simple Sultan, because when you actually look at the numbers it becomes pretty obvious it was a false assumption.

Gardner's dRTG was 103.8 compared to Otule's 102.7.  These numbers indicate points allowed per 100 possessions a player is on the floor.  Marquette allowed 68.7 possessions/game last season so this difference accounts for less than a point/game difference in their defensive efficiency.

Compare Otule's oRTG of 108.9 to Gardner's oRTG of 127.6 and you can see that the only statistical certainty is that Gardner was an extremely superior offensive player.

Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?

Do not ever let facts ever get in the way of the Sultan's exalted opinion.

[BM1090]

KenPom data has them ranked 3rd in the Big10, with the projected record of tied for 2nd in conference play. They would rank 5th in the ACC under the same system, and they are 14th overall in the nation.

Trust me, they're good.

Yep.

[GGGG]

Simple Sultan, because when you actually look at the numbers it becomes pretty obvious it was a false assumption.

Gardner's dRTG was 103.8 compared to Otule's 102.7.  These numbers indicate points allowed per 100 possessions a player is on the floor.  Marquette allowed 68.7 possessions/game last season so this difference accounts for less than a point/game difference in their defensive efficiency.

So in other words, statistically I was correct.

But seriously thank you for this.  Defensive ratings have their flaws though, but I have no evidence if they are flawed in this case.

[Blackhat]

Personally, I'm not an advocate for extending the on ball area out as far as we seemed to be.  Leaves help defense too much floor to cover, imo.  But it is consistent with Coach K's philosophy, so it can work...I just don't think we have enough length right now to be extending our guards against a team like OSU.

We shall see, I was happy with our help D against UT-Martin but against OSU rotation lacked.  Quicker guards, etc.

[brandx]

If you think I'm trying to compare Gardner to McDermott your reading comprehension needs work - or you're finding confirmation bias to your aversion to stats.

Stats have their place, but they don't measure everything and if that is all you rely on, then you will have no feel for what really happens.

Let me give an example, using baseball. There are more stats for baseball - both traditional and sabremetrically - than any other sport. Yet, there is not a single stat to measure probably the most important aspect of hitting: what a hitter does when he either gets or does not get the pitch he is looking for. How does a hitter do when he is guessing fastball and gets one? Or guessing fastball and getting a slider, etc.

I love getting into the stats, but if you discount the eye test, you will never really know what is going on.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Could Otule and DG's defensive metric be influenced by Buzz's mixing and matching?

In other words, most of the time, Chris was asked to be the "defender" and received the tougher assignments. DG usually received the easier of the assignments, or was subbed out if the match-up was bad (more so in his junior year).

Also, the college game is heavily based on team/rotational defense. I don't know how the defensive metrics capture those types of things.

[bilsu]

Both teams got a lot of wide open shots in the lane. Basically, the result of both coaches trying to shut down the three point shot. Ohio St. started out 6 of 7 from the three, which meant MU had to concentrate on covering the perimeter, resulting in the middle being open.

[Warhawk Warrior]

Relax!!!

[Marqevans]

First off, all the optimism on this board after the UTM game shouldn't be completely abandoned en masse like many have chosen following last night's loss.  That said, tOSU shouldn't be ranked in my opinion and it seemed like we turned a winnable game into a second half snooze fest.  Here's my take on the loss.

1.  Compared to anyone who played last night, Devante Gardner was a defensive guru.  I often argued that much of his defensive deficiency was imagined by many on this forum, but I think watching the mediocre buckeye post players make mediocre moves around our defenders for wide open buckets shows a whole new level of defensive ineptitude.  It's really the sole reason for last night's loss.  Even an average defensive effort results in a game decided by the final possessions.

2.  Buzz Williams should watch this game to figure out how to run an offense against the 2-3 zone.  Coach Wojo I felt used a very effective coaching decision to consistently find easy baskets all game long.  It's too bad a few were missed that should never have been.  A minor tweak (which will lead to point 3) I would have liked to see employed was getting Burton the ball at the high post/free throw line in the middle of the zone.  For as effective as we were at getting the ball to the block, there was very little effort to exploit the zone from the free throw line and Burton is the type of player who could do it most effectively on our current roster.

3.  Deonte Burton shows why he's not starting with his bafflingly poor play.  He was inconsistent, made poor shot selections, and was trying to play faster than necessary resulting in silly turnovers.  He probably has the most talent on the team but needs to find his rhythm or he won't capitalize on his ability.

4.  When Cohen looks more composed than Anderson against quality NCAA competition it poses as a problem for this team all season.

5.  I thought Wojo made great usage out of his timeouts that prevented the collapse as long as possible.  Every time the game got to within 9-13 he called a TO and it seemed the team responded to get the lead back to a manageable deficit.  It's too bad that emphasis was never able to be sustained as it appeared that when Marquette would cut the lead to around 7 then the same defensive laziness/poor shot selection offensively would take back over.

6.  This is going to be an extremely entertaining season if one can temper expectations and enjoy the ups and downs.

7.  Ners relax, Wilson took two 3's and made one.  He was a little hesitant (possibly due to the knee) to get into the lane but I didn't see too many MU players penetrating so maybe that's not an emphasis in our new coach's offense so who knows?  It's too small a sample size to even begin to grade our Wojo, but I suspect there will be an adjustment period of tailoring your system to the personnel you have.  If this team looks as clueless on the defensive end come conference play then I'd say there's reason for concern but for now it's too early.

Geez, and I thought if we had just hit 40% of our 3's in the first half we might of won the game.

[Marqevans]

Did we give any credit for causing a lot of turnovers?  Motta sure thought it was a problem.

[mattyv1908]

Could Otule and DG's defensive metric be influenced by Buzz's mixing and matching?

In other words, most of the time, Chris was asked to be the "defender" and received the tougher assignments. DG usually received the easier of the assignments, or was subbed out if the match-up was bad (more so in his junior year).

Also, the college game is heavily based on team/rotational defense. I don't know how the defensive metrics capture those types of things.

In and of itself this logic is flawed.  Defensive metrics only measure defensive possessions.  Therefore the dRTG of each Gardner and Otule are calculated from the amount of defensive possessions they saw.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

In and of itself this logic is flawed.  Defensive metrics only measure defensive possessions.  Therefore the dRTG of each Gardner and Otule are calculated from the amount of defensive possessions they saw.

Right, but in theory, if (insert player) is always receiving a favorable defensive match-up, then would his dRTG be higher?

(I'm asking honestly because I don't know).

[NersEllenson]

Right, but in theory, if (insert player) is always receiving a favorable defensive match-up, then would his dRTG be higher?

(I'm asking honestly because I don't know).

Flawed:  Buzz wasn't subbing based on matchups.  It was strictly offense/defense/possession based.  It wasn't as if Team X subbed in dominant Big, and in turn Buzz pulled Gardner for Otule. 

[MerrittsMustache]

Right, but in theory, if (insert player) is always receiving a favorable defensive match-up, then would his dRTG be higher?

(I'm asking honestly because I don't know).

In theory, this could be correct but it doesn't necessarily apply to Otule/Gardner. DRtg applies to the team as a whole when the specific player is on the court. If Bill Russell was playing with 4 James Hardens then his DRtg wouldn't look very good. On the contrary, if James Harden was surrounded by 4 Bill Russells, his DRtg would likely be excellent.