Chicago Sun Times: Big Ten's "next move will be adding the 15th & 16th schools"

[Aughnanure]

Yea they only add the most titles in mens and womens hoops over the past 20 years.  No big deal

This. Never understood how Boston College, Pitt, and Lousiville are apparently attractive candidates for conferences to add, but not UConn.

[ChicosBailBonds]

This!

Again they plan (rumored) to be looking to create a 30 school coast-to-coast conference.  Then they will use the BTN to bid on NBA, MLB, NHL etc.  Remember that ESPN started as a venture to broadcast Uconn basketball.  That's their model.

The Big 10 is intent on world domination.  Someday we will live in the "The United States Of Big 10"

Is this in teal?  Number one, that's not why ESPN started.  Number two, BTN for the rates they charge cannot afford any of the content you are talking about.  I asked last time, where is this 30 school rumor coming from? 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

This!

Remember that ESPN started as a venture to broadcast Uconn basketball.  That's their model.

Started to broadcast Hartford Whalers NHL Hockey.

[mug644]

So who would be the 16th team? Other than UConn, who else would even be close to the profile of the Big10/12/14/16?

UMass?

[ChicosBailBonds]

This. Never understood how Boston College, Pitt, and Lousiville are apparently attractive candidates for conferences to add, but not UConn.

Simple.  TV ratings and football.  The NE, generally speaking, doesn't give a rip about college football.  The ratings are not good and then you throw in a program like UConn and their football is unattractive.  Yes, they went to the Fiesta Bowl and were arguably the worst quality team in Fiesta Bowl history, or certainly since the 1970's.

Basketball doesn't mean a hill of beans folks, it just doesn't....not in the grand scheme of things.  Its nice to say, certainly the conference will tout it, etc, but that is reality.  Put another way, Pitt football, Louisville football and Syracuse football added the revenue upside for the ACC, not their 3 basketball programs.  People don't want to hear it, but the numbers aren't even close.

[Aughnanure]

I'm just telling you what the Big Ten folks have told me over the years.  Some of us worked on the launch of the Big Ten channel, and we deal with some of these folks all the time.  Could things change, of course.  Fact is, the Big Ten has NEVER added a school that wasn't a member of the AAU and the politics associated with that status.  Nebraska went on to lose that status, but they had it when they were invited.

If the Big Ten's dream vision is to add UConn football, knock their socks off.  UConn basketball is the proverbial drop in the ocean in ratings and money.

Well, too bad we know that's bulls***. You really want to tell me the B1G isn't letting Notre Dame in because of AAU status?

According to you, they're supposedly motivated by the money, market size, ratings and football dollars....BUT only if they're part of an elitist and arbitrarily chosen academic group. One of these things is not like the other....

[GGGG]

The B10 already invited ND to join despite the fact they don't have AAU membership.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Simple.  TV ratings and football.  The NE, generally speaking, doesn't give a rip about college football.  The ratings are not good and then you throw in a program like UConn and their football is unattractive.  Yes, they went to the Fiesta Bowl and were arguably the worst quality team in Fiesta Bowl history, or certainly since the 1970's.

Basketball doesn't mean a hill of beans folks, it just doesn't....not in the grand scheme of things.  Its nice to say, certainly the conference will tout it, etc, but that is reality.  Put another way, Pitt football, Louisville football and Syracuse football added the revenue upside for the ACC, not their 3 basketball programs.  People don't want to hear it, but the numbers aren't even close.

You're right... but keep in mind the search for additional content and incremental revenue won't stop... ever.

Adding (insert school) might be a drop in the bucket, but if that makes for more content, and more potential eyeballs, they will consider it.

Football is obviously the most profitable, and it isn't close. AT ALL.

But, that doesn't mean they don't want, or can't find profitable content in other areas. Hockey, hoops, baseball, lacrosse, etc.

That's not to say they are actually considering UCONN, but the B10 isn't going to stop growing... They are going to look for revenue streams wherever they can get it.  

[The Lens]

Well, too bad we know that's bulls***. You really want to tell me the B1G isn't letting Notre Dame in because of AAU status?

According to you, they're supposedly motivated by the money, market size, ratings and football dollars....BUT only if they're part of an elitist and arbitrarily chosen academic group. One of these things is not like the other....

The AAU argument and the CIC arguments are very real.  They would make an exception for ND because no one doubts ND's academic standing.  But they wouldn't for Louisville or Cinci.  The nice part about being the king (and make no mistake, the Big Ten is king) is you do not have to be choosy.  Nebraska is not a member but was when the Big Ten admitted them.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

The AAU argument and the CIC arguments are very real.  They would make an exception for ND because no one doubts ND's academic standing.  But they wouldn't for Louisville or Cinci.  The nice part about being the king (and make no mistake, the Big Ten is king) is you do not have to be choosy.  Nebraska is not a member but was when the Big Ten admitted them.

The AAU thing is not an issue.

I mean, they may SAY it's an issue, but the reality is that it's not.

If/when (insert non-AAU school) can add a significant amount of revenue to the network (again, please don't call it a "conference"), they will be added, and the B10 will go out of it's way to say that it's some sort of special exception or something (like it would for ND).

It's about $, guys.

Don't buy any of this other stuff.

[Aughnanure]

The AAU argument and the CIC arguments are very real.  They would make an exception for ND because no one doubts ND's academic standing.  But they wouldn't for Louisville or Cinci.  The nice part about being the king (and make no mistake, the Big Ten is king) is you do not have to be choosy.  Nebraska is not a member but was when the Big Ten admitted them.

Then who are they going to add? Seriously. Are we pretending there's just an endless amount of candidates that fit this narrow requirement?

They're going to 16 at some point, and there's only so many schools left they can actually add. And I don't think any of them are in conferences with the enormous GOR ties...or are 2 time zones away.

So that leaves Missouri, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and....Buffalo. None of the others play football.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Then who are they going to add? Seriously. Are we pretending there's just an endless amount of candidates that fit this narrow requirement?

They're going to 16 at some point, and there's only so many schools left they can actually add. And I don't think any of them are in conferences with the enormous GOR ties...or are 2 time zones away.

So that leaves Missouri, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and....Buffalo. None of the others play football.

Purely hypothetical only - if Missouri did leave for the Big10 who would the SEC replace them with?  With the logical candiates, we run into GOR issues once again?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Well, too bad we know that's bulls***. You really want to tell me the B1G isn't letting Notre Dame in because of AAU status?

According to you, they're supposedly motivated by the money, market size, ratings and football dollars....BUT only if they're part of an elitist and arbitrarily chosen academic group. One of these things is not like the other....

UCONN is no ND, I can't say it any simpler than that. There are exceptions to everything, and Notre Dame would be that exception, but even ND has raised the cackles of the academic side of the house.

Ignore it if you wish.  Yes, things can change, but it has been a big deal in the past and in my dealings with them, it's still a big deal for the Presidents of the universities.  They are the ones making the decisions.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2010-06-13/sports/ct-spt-0614-aau-big-ten-expansion--20100613_1_aau-nebraska-chancellor-harvey-perlman-big-ten-members

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/sports/2010/05/23/academic-coalition-is-key-but-what-is-it.html

http://www.nj.com/rutgers/index.ssf/2010/05/big_ten_expansion_talk_puts_sp.html

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/68129/how-to-get-smart-about-b1g-expansion

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/12511/big-tens-aau-ties-should-factor-in-expansion



UCONN adds very little to the $$$ equation either.  So let's say UCONN gets the AAU status, which they have been working on, does it help or hurt them?  I say it helps them.  However, you still have the $$$ question, what does UCONN bring to them in terms of money?  Not much.  Not the way the TV contracts are laid out for pay tv subscribers, and certainly not in the ratings department for OTA $$$.

If the Grant of Rights deal with the ACC wasn't in play, the Big Ten's more perfect fits would be North Carolina, Virginia.  Of course, in the Big 12, KU and Texas are the out there, but don't see Texas needing to do it since they have an unequal rev share already and the Big Ten would be loathe to let Texas keep more of a share than others.

[ChicosBailBonds]

You're right... but keep in mind the search for additional content and incremental revenue won't stop... ever.

Adding (insert school) might be a drop in the bucket, but if that makes for more content, and more potential eyeballs, they will consider it.

Football is obviously the most profitable, and it isn't close. AT ALL.

But, that doesn't mean they don't want, or can't find profitable content in other areas. Hockey, hoops, baseball, lacrosse, etc.

That's not to say they are actually considering UCONN, but the B10 isn't going to stop growing... They are going to look for revenue streams wherever they can get it.  

It doesn't stop, but it isn't valued the same way.  The pie doesn't grow forever either.  So adding other schools with minimal return is not going to make the other schools happy campers, because it dilutes their share.  Adding baseball, lacrosse, hockey adds hours of content, it adds almost no eyeballs and very little monetary value.  Not enough to justify carving the pie into thinner slices.  UNLESS, they believe they can command a ton more money from the TV rights holders, which means higher bills for customers, which means more people ticked off, especially those that don't like sports.  If they leave the platforms, the conference doesn't get their money because these are not fixed rate deals, they are per sub deals, or on the network side tied to ratings and ad sales.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The AAU thing is not an issue.

I mean, they may SAY it's an issue, but the reality is that it's not.

If/when (insert non-AAU school) can add a significant amount of revenue to the network (again, please don't call it a "conference"), they will be added, and the B10 will go out of it's way to say that it's some sort of special exception or something (like it would for ND).

It's about $, guys.

Don't buy any of this other stuff.

Sigh.

Uhm, ok.  Again, ignore if you wish.  I deal with these guys all the time. It is real, exceptions can be made, but it is real.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

UCONN is no ND, I can't say it any simpler than that. There are exceptions to everything, and Notre Dame would be that exception, but even ND has raised the cackles of the academic side of the house.

Ignore it if you wish.  Yes, things can change, but it has been a big deal in the past and in my dealings with them, it's still a big deal for the Presidents of the universities.  They are the ones making the decisions.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2010-06-13/sports/ct-spt-0614-aau-big-ten-expansion--20100613_1_aau-nebraska-chancellor-harvey-perlman-big-ten-members

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/sports/2010/05/23/academic-coalition-is-key-but-what-is-it.html

http://www.nj.com/rutgers/index.ssf/2010/05/big_ten_expansion_talk_puts_sp.html

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/68129/how-to-get-smart-about-b1g-expansion

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/12511/big-tens-aau-ties-should-factor-in-expansion



UCONN adds very little to the $$$ equation either.  So let's say UCONN gets the AAU status, which they have been working on, does it help or hurt them?  I say it helps them.  However, you still have the $$$ question, what does UCONN bring to them in terms of money?  Not much.  Not the way the TV contracts are laid out for pay tv subscribers, and certainly not in the ratings department for OTA $$$.

If the Grant of Rights deal with the ACC wasn't in play, the Big Ten's more perfect fits would be North Carolina, Virginia.  Of course, in the Big 12, KU and Texas are the out there, but don't see Texas needing to do it since they have an unequal rev share already and the Big Ten would be loathe to let Texas keep more of a share than others.

Nobody has said the AAU thing hasn't been a big deal in the past. That's fine.

But, if Texas wanted to join for an equal share, and Texas wasn't an AAU school, the B10 would take them in a second.

So, the reality is, AAU isn't as important as $. So, when a school that isn't AAU can bring the B10 NETWORK a lot of $, they will be admitted.

UCONN isn't likely to be that school, but you get the idea.

[Aughnanure]

Purely hypothetical only - if Missouri did leave for the Big10 who would the SEC replace them with?  With the logical candiates, we run into GOR issues once again?

Cincy's lucky day? SMU? Memphis? Maybe they don't and stay with 13.

As Sultan said earlier, if a someone really wants in they can probably make it happen given what these schools are soon to be making. I am curious though about how Ironclad some of these GOR are. The rumor about the Big 12's GOR is if more than 25% or 40% (I forget, but it was essentially 4 teams) of the league leaves then the contract has an out or something. So the Pac-16 can still happen (UT, TT, OU, OSU)

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Sigh.

Uhm, ok.  Again, ignore if you wish.  I deal with these guys all the time. It is real, exceptions can be made, but it is real.

I'm telling you, they will take a non-AAU member if they think it adds a lot of revenue.

That's it.

To put it another way: I'll never work for a tobacco company! But, if they paid me 10mil per year, I'd probably make an "exception".

So really, my moral stand is limited by my greed.

Same for BTN. PROFIT is like a drug. The schools are getting it. They are becoming addicted to it. They aren't going to magically stop looking for it.  

They will make "exceptions" and sell the decision using a bunch of PR tactics.

[Aughnanure]

UCONN adds very little to the $$$ equation either.  So let's say UCONN gets the AAU status, which they have been working on, does it help or hurt them?  I say it helps them.  However, you still have the $$$ question, what does UCONN bring to them in terms of money?  Not much.  Not the way the TV contracts are laid out for pay tv subscribers, and certainly not in the ratings department for OTA $$$.

And this is where I get confused. Okay, you say UConn adds very little (I somewhat disagree that BBall is sooo insignificant but okay). How does Rutgers add enough? Maryland? At least Nebraska at least made sense on the football level. I just don't get people saying UConn would never be added because of football while ignoring they essentially just did that with a school with an even lower athletic brand in Rutgers.

[Spotcheck Billy]

the amount of subscribers their TV markets bring in made it all worth enough $$$$

[Coleman]

Purely hypothetical only - if Missouri did leave for the Big10 who would the SEC replace them with?  With the logical candiates, we run into GOR issues once again?

Memphis?

Just spitballing here.

EDIT: Now that I think of it, they could probably poach from the Big XII. Any of those teams would probably leave for the SEC

[ChicosBailBonds]

From Jim Delany, Commissioner of the Big Ten.   This pretty much echoes the folks I deal with.  It's a big deal, it's essential to their criteria.  It doesn't mean it can't change, but so far they have stayed with it because the presidents of the universities want it that way.  It's an exclusive club.


"It's pretty obvious to us that the paradigm has shifted," Delany said. "It's not your father's Big Ten. It's probably not your father's ACC. The paradigm shift is that other conferences had [expanded], we had chosen not to, and we explored the collaboration [with the Pac-12]. It couldn't be executed. The Pac-12 couldn't do what they thought they could do. ...

"We said, how do we participate in the new paradigm? Our answer was let's look at contiguous states first, let's look at AAU members first, and let's figure out if there is a way to continue to bridge from Penn State into the Mid-Atlantic. Is there a way to collaborate with like institutions, to grow our footprint, to compete and to position ourselves for the future? We determined this is the best way to accomplish those ends."

and

"What we focused on and continue to focus on is the quality of the institution," Delany said. "It's membership in AAU. It's resilience. It's tradition. We believe then, and now, that (Rutgers) will be a great member of the Big Ten conference, notwithstanding the fact that they had a number of high-profile situations that have received a lot of coverage.

and

"AAU membership is a part of who we are. It's an important part of who we are."


Name one other conference that mentions AAU during expansion, let alone one of the first things it mentions.  It's a big deal.

[ChuckyChip]

And this is where I get confused. Okay, you say UConn adds very little (I somewhat disagree that BBall is sooo insignificant but okay). How does Rutgers add enough? Maryland? At least Nebraska at least made sense on the football level. I just don't get people saying UConn would never be added because of football while ignoring they essentially just did that with a school with an even lower athletic brand in Rutgers.

Rutgers delivers the NYC television market and Maryland delivers Baltimore/DC.  That's why those schools were picked - not because of great football tradition.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Nobody has said the AAU thing hasn't been a big deal in the past. That's fine.

But, if Texas wanted to join for an equal share, and Texas wasn't an AAU school, the B10 would take them in a second.

So, the reality is, AAU isn't as important as $. So, when a school that isn't AAU can bring the B10 NETWORK a lot of $, they will be admitted.

UCONN isn't likely to be that school, but you get the idea.

But Texas is an AAU school, that's the point.  Better example for you would be Florida State, national champions in football, fertile recruiting grounds in the state.  If FSU wanted to join for an equal share, do you think the Big Ten would say yes?  How about Oklahoma?  LSU?  There are many big schools that can bring dollars to bear, but they aren't invited for considered for a number of reasons.

You are saying the AAU isn't as important based on your beliefs.  To this date, zero schools ever accepting an invitation to the Big Ten were not AAU members.  Their people have said continuously how important it is, at the top of their list of criteria.  When talking to them about where their footprint might go in expansion to determine if you want to sign a contract to carry their network, these are the kinds of due diligence questions that are asked.  Are you expanding?  If you were, who are candidates, what is the criteria?  Etc, etc, because a television broadcaster has to consider the what if's since they are on the hook for future dollars potentially to be paid.

[ChicosBailBonds]

And this is where I get confused. Okay, you say UConn adds very little (I somewhat disagree that BBall is sooo insignificant but okay). How does Rutgers add enough? Maryland? At least Nebraska at least made sense on the football level. I just don't get people saying UConn would never be added because of football while ignoring they essentially just did that with a school with an even lower athletic brand in Rutgers.

Television markets.  Forget ratings, I'm talking pay tv subscribers.  When BTN went and grabbed Rutgers, it trips a clause in the Big Ten Network deals that the rates MSOs have to pay for the right to carry that network is different for a state \ territory that has a Big Ten school.  So when they add Maryland and Rutgers, instantly means more money per subscriber from DISH, AT&T, DIRECTV, Comcast, etc, etc because the states of New Jersey, New York, Maryland and District of Columbia change the rates.   Adding UConn is peanuts in comparison.