The Bubble

[jesmu84]

Link?

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/437605560146354177

For all of the arguing about whether or not we are on the bubble or not, does 11 teams away count?

[ChicosBailBonds]

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/437605560146354177

For all of the arguing about whether or not we are on the bubble or not, does 11 teams away count?

That's a LOT of climbing.  Not impossible, but a lot.  That also doesn't even factor in an upset in the conference tournaments, which there is almost always a few that steals a bid or two.

Or let's view it on how we have viewed things the last week or so when as a collective we've said things like X "barely beat" Y so that could hurt them. Wouldn't the same apply to us yesterday? 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/437605560146354177

For all of the arguing about whether or not we are on the bubble or not, does 11 teams away count?

Look at the schedules of the teams in front of MU on that list. There are a whole lot of losses there.

[nathanziarek]

Image above was posted during the Creighton-Seton Hall game. They don't seem to think MU is in the discussion.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Image above was posted during the Creighton-Seton Hall game. They don't seem to think MU is in the discussion.

Notice they are using the RPI....there's a reason for that.

At the end of the day, seems to me we're going to have two high seeds and either 1, 2, or 3 teams that are seeded around 9th through 13th.  SJU if they keep playing well could end up north of a 9, but a lot of hanging on for dear life with the others....including MU if we get in.

[injuryBug]

Basically if we would have won one of our tough NC games we are right in the discussion

[brandx]

Image above was posted during the Creighton-Seton Hall game. They don't seem to think MU is in the discussion.

We aren't - unless we win the next four, which would still probably leave us on the "first four out" list. But first, we need to make it onto the bubble and that is at least 3 wins and probably 4 wins away.

[bilsu]

We beat Georgetown and Providence we remove them from the equation. No way they get picked ahead of us, when we finish above them in Big East standings and sweep the series with them. I think 4 teams go from Big East. The top three finishers and the winner of the 4 vs 5 Big East tournament game.

[chapman]

Basically if we would have won one of our tough NC games we are right in the discussion

Yep, we add a good win and our expected finish is ~13 spots better in the RPI if we had beaten ASU, ~15 if SDSU, two good wins and ~25 spots if both. 

Not sure if it's accurate, but it shows that if we go 3-1 with the loss to Villanova we finish 19-12 with an RPI of 56 and SOS of 47.  If we substituted Grambling for a non-RPI Division 2 team we're 18-12 with an RPI of 49 and SOS of 25.   

[NersEllenson]

We beat Georgetown and Providence we remove them from the equation. No way they get picked ahead of us, when we finish above them in Big East standings and sweep the series with them. I think 4 teams go from Big East. The top three finishers and the winner of the 4 vs 5 Big East tournament game.

Agree with bolded....no way GTown, Providence should get in ahead of MU if we sweep the season series with both....even if their RPI is better...think tourney committee would be hard pressed to justify putting GTown and Providence in before us if we sweep them both.

Think Big East is a lock for 3 teams, and a virtual lock for 4.  Obviously Nova, Creighton, and St. John's are the 3 locks...unless St. John's goes on a 4 game losing streak.  We HAVE to beat GTown and Providence if we have any hope of getting in...other than by virtue of winning Big East tourney.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Agree with bolded....no way GTown, Providence should get in ahead of MU if we sweep the season series with both....even if their RPI is better...think tourney committee would be hard pressed to justify putting GTown and Providence in before us if we sweep them both.

Think Big East is a lock for 3 teams, and a virtual lock for 4.  Obviously Nova, Creighton, and St. John's are the 3 locks...unless St. John's goes on a 4 game losing streak.  We HAVE to beat GTown and Providence if we have any hope of getting in...other than by virtue of winning Big East tourney.

Its happened before.  The reason is simple, rarely does it come down perfectly to just two teams and they decide, well MU beat Georgetown twice so they go ahead of them.  To many other factors which is why it typically doesn't happen.

Not saying I don't agree with your logic, I do.  Just pointing out that it just typically doesn't come down to teams in the discussion that allows for that kind of comparison.  Interestingly enough, if G'Town lost to MU, beat Creighton at home and lost to Villanova they would finish roughly with a 57 RPI and a SOS of 13.  If MU were to beat G'Town, lose to Villanova, beat Providence and beat St. John's.  A RPI of 56 and a SOS 47.

Nebraska is winning big right now.  Hard not to see them going 2-2 or even 3-1 down the stretch here.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

For all those #bubblelife lovers, you'll have plenty to watch tomorrow

We obviously need to start with Marquette at Depaul (1 PM, CBSSN)
And I'll give the 2nd nod to the Aggies hosting Tennessee (2 PM, ESPNU)
The rest:
Xavier at Georgetown (10:30 AM, FS1)
Florida at Ole Miss (11 AM, CBS)
Clemson at Georgia Tech (11 AM, ESPN3)
Indiana  State at Missouri State (12 PM, ESPNU)
Saint John's at Villanova (12:30 PM, FS1)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (12:30 PM, ESPN3)
Baylor at West Virginia (12:30 PM, ESPN3)
Middle Tennessee at Marshall (2 PM, Regional)
NC State at Virginia Tech (1 PM, ESPN 3)
Dayton at Duquesne (1 PM, Regional)
Fordham at Saint Joseph's (1 PM, Regional)
LSU at Kentucky (3 PM, ESPN)
La Salle at Richmond (3 PM, CBSSN)
Arkansas at Mississippi State (3 PM, ESPN3)
UCLA at Stanford (5 PM, ESPN2)
Minnesota at Ohio State (5 PM, BTN)
UTEP at Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech at Old Dominion
Northwestern St. atStephen F. Austin (6 PM, Regional)
George Washington at Saint Louis (7 PM, Regional)
Harbard at Princeton (7 PM, ESPN3)
Missouri at Alabama (7 PM, ESPN2)
UNLV atBoise State (7:05 PM, CBSSN)
Indiana at Northwestern (7:15 PM, BTN)
Arizona at Colorado (8 PM, ESPN)
Portland at BYU (8 PM, Regional)

Results from Saturday for those too lazy to check themselves.

Marquette of course squeaked by Depaul.
TAMU beat Tennessee in OT (y'all welcome)
Xavier got crushed by Georgetown
Ole Miss just missed the chance for a marquee win against Florida
Clemson beat Georgia Tech on the road
Indiana State fell to Missouri State in classic trap game fashion
Saint John's just missed beating Nova (Obekpa is back for SJU)
Oklahoma State got revenge on Texas Tech (and got Smart back)
Baylor beat West Virginia in a battle of bubble teams
Middle Tennessee barely escapes Marshall
NC State beats Virginia Tech
Dayton barely wins at Duguqesne
Fordham fell to St. Joseph's
LSU got to OT but couldn't put away Kentcuky
La Salle was destroyed by Richmond
Arkansas squeaks by Mississippi State
Stanford may have removed all doubt by upsetting UCLA
Minnesota got trounced by Ohio State
UTEP gets handled by Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech gets past Old Dominion on the road
SF Austin barely beats Northwestern State
George Washington got beat by BEast hopeful Saint Louis
Harvard handles Princeton
Mizzou drops a game to a real bad Alabama team
UNLV can't put away Boise State in OT
Indiana beats Northwestern
Arizona beats Colorado handily
Portland is bested by BYU

Major bubble winners: Georgetown (beat fellow bubble team Xavier), Baylor (beat fellow bubble team West Virginia), Stanford (beat UCLA, probably making them a lock)

Bubble losers: Xavier, Ole Miss, Saint John's, West Virginia, LSU, Minnesota, George Washington, Colorado

Major bubble losers: Tennessee (as much as I love the Aggies, losing to them is not acceptable), Indiana State (lost to a real bad Missouri State team), Mizzou (lost to an awful Bama team)

11 out of the 29 bubble teams in action yesterday lost. Good news for the Warriors

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Only 26 D1 games going on tonight, but lots of bubble action!

SMU upsets UCONN on the road, probably making them a lock
Purdue gets destroyed by Nebraska
Providence survives a late surge by Butler
Ball State gets beat Toledo
Arizona State gets embarrassed by Utah
USC is handled by California
Washington state is beat soundly byOregon

Arizona State is the only bubble loser, but they are probably still inside the field of 68.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Only one bubble game on Monday night

Oklahoma State travels to Big 12 bottom dweller (0-14 conference record) TCU (6 PM, ESPNU)

If TCU does find some way to upset the Cowboys (they did beat Kansas last season), that would almost assuredly kill their NCAA chances.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Only one bubble game on Monday night

Oklahoma State travels to Big 12 bottom dweller (0-14 conference record) TCU (6 PM, ESPNU)

If TCU does find some way to upset the Cowboys (they did beat Kansas last season), that would almost assuredly kill their NCAA chances.

As expected, OkSt handled TCU.

A couple of key bubble games tonight, a couple in which two bubble teams are playing each other:

Iowa at Minnesota (6 PM, BTN)
Clemson at Wake Forest (6 PM, ESPN3)
Xavier at Saint John's (6 PM, FS1)
Dayton at Saint Joseph's (6 PM, CBSSN)
Indiana at Wisconsin (8 PM, ESPN)
Missouri at Georgia (8 PM, ESPNU)

[NersEllenson]

As expected, OkSt handled TCU.

A couple of key bubble games tonight, a couple in which two bubble teams are playing each other:

Iowa at Minnesota (6 PM, BTN)
Clemson at Wake Forest (6 PM, ESPN3)
Xavier at Saint John's (6 PM, FS1)
Dayton at Saint Joseph's (6 PM, CBSSN)
Indiana at Wisconsin (8 PM, ESPN)
Missouri at Georgia (8 PM, ESPNU)

Nice that you do this TAMU...thanks. 

[PGsHeroes32]

Indiana is a CIT bubble team maybe.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Indiana is a CIT bubble team maybe.

Right now they are in the NIT bracket with Marquette.

http://bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

As expected, OkSt handled TCU.

A couple of key bubble games tonight, a couple in which two bubble teams are playing each other:

Iowa at Minnesota (6 PM, BTN)
Clemson at Wake Forest (6 PM, ESPN3)
Xavier at Saint John's (6 PM, FS1)
Dayton at Saint Joseph's (6 PM, CBSSN)
Indiana at Wisconsin (8 PM, ESPN)
Missouri at Georgia (8 PM, ESPNU)

Minnesota defends their home turf from the Hawkeyes
Clemson suffers a significant setback against a sub par Wake Forest team
Xavier wins on the road at fellow bubble team St. John's
Dayton gets demolished by fellow bubble team St. Joe's
Indiana misses their chance for a marquee win at Bucky
Missouri may have had their bubble burst by losing by 15 to an average at best Georgia squad

[forgetful]

This year is strange.  There are 7 A10 teams in discussion for the Dance, largely due to the problems with the RPI.  If we compare leagues right now the Big East holds a 8-2 record in head to head competition against the A10.

Big East should get 5 teams based on actual quality.  Given that we continue to beat up on each other I don't think it happens though.

[77ncaachamps]

It's not just defense that's putting us in peril, it's the lack of offense.

That's why we're going to be an NIT team.

These are NOT the numbers of an NCAA team from a high major conference.


Offense (Rank)
Points:   72.0 (156)
Rebounds:   12.0 (95)
Assists:   14.5 (60)
FG%:   44.7% (148)
FT%:   69.1% (197)
3P%:   30.5% (325)


Defense (Rank)
Points:   67.1 (93)
Rebounds:   24.3 (144)
Assists:   13.8 (275)
FG%:   41.9% (97)
FT%:   65.6% (19)
3P%:   36.3% (271)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Plenty of bubble team action tonight!

Richmond at George Mason (6 PM, Regional)
Texas A&M at LSU (7 PM, ESPN3)
West Virginia at Iowa State (7 PM, ESPN3)
North Carolina at North Carolina State (7 PM, ESPN3)
Alabama at Ole Miss (7 PM, ESPN3)
Tennessee at Mississippi State (7 PM, ESPN3)
Toledo at Northern Illinois (7 PM, Regional)
Indiana State at Illinois State (7:05 PM, Regional)
California at Arizona (8 PM, ESPN2)
Baylor at Texas (8 PM, ESPNU)
Boise State at Fresno State (8 PM, CBSSN)
Nebraska at Illinois (8 PM, BTN)
Stanford at Arizona State (10 PM, ESPNU)

I see a lot of tough road games for the bubble tonight. I smell a lot of losses.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Right now they are in the NIT bracket with Marquette.

http://bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

What if Marquette faces Indiana in the NIT???!!!!   

The board would make a prison fight look like a Disney picnic... 

[Windyplayer]

Plenty of bubble team action tonight!

Richmond at George Mason (6 PM, Regional)
Texas A&M at LSU (7 PM, ESPN3)
West Virginia at Iowa State (7 PM, ESPN3)
North Carolina at North Carolina State (7 PM, ESPN3)
Alabama at Ole Miss (7 PM, ESPN3)
Tennessee at Mississippi State (7 PM, ESPN3)
Toledo at Northern Illinois (7 PM, Regional)
Indiana State at Illinois State (7:05 PM, Regional)
California at Arizona (8 PM, ESPN2)
Baylor at Texas (8 PM, ESPNU)
Boise State at Fresno State (8 PM, CBSSN)
Nebraska at Illinois (8 PM, BTN)
Stanford at Arizona State (10 PM, ESPNU)

I see a lot of tough road games for the bubble tonight. I smell a lot of losses.

Illinois schools can do us a solid tonight.

[Archies Bat]

What if Marquette faces Indiana in the NIT???!!!!   

The board would make a prison fight look like a Disney picnic... 

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