predicting the starting lineup: post-madness

[77ncaachamps]

Buzz always starts players and yanks one out.
I think Juan fits that mold again. Allowing for Steve to study the defense as well as protecting him from early fouls.

Yet, Buzz rewards guys (with starting spots) who practice hard and well, especially during the exhibition/non-conf games.

But I think, he eventually goes with those he trusts the most:
Chris
Juan
Jamil
Mayo
Derrick

[NersEllenson]

Otule
Gardner
Jamil
Mayo
Derrick Wilson

Think Otule will get roughly 15-18 minutes a game, with Steve Taylor, McKay, Juan picking up the remaining 25 minutes left over from Otule...with Gardner then shifting to the 5.  Think Gardner gets 30 minutes a game, and McKay and Taylor and Juan give get his 10 minutes on the bench.

Jamil gets 30 minutes per game, Juan and Deonte compete to get his other 10 minutes..

See JJJ and Mayo likely splitting minutes at the 2 guard - each getting close to 20.

Derrick gets 25 at point, with Du Wilson/Dawson, possibly Mayo picking up the remaining 15 point guard minutes.

Think Deonte, Dawson, and Jake are the 3 who aren't part of the usual rotation.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I think its gonna be

Derrick
Juan/Mayo
Jamil
Steve
Otule

Its buzz though so it could be something completely out of the box.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I've got:

Derrick
Juan (Mayo's play at madness gives me some hope but I'm still not sold)
Jamil
Jameel
Chris

This lineup has size, speed, and a ridiculous amount of athleticism. We will be able to abuse most defenses. Love it.

[wadesworld]

I've got:

Derrick
Juan (Mayo's play at madness gives me some hope but I'm still not sold)
Jamil
Jameel
Chris

This lineup has size, speed, and a ridiculous amount of athleticism. We will be able to abuse most defenses. Love it.

It has size, speed, and athleticism, but if we were frustrating about our lack of shooting last year...

[GGGG]

It has size, speed, and athleticism, but if we were frustrating about our lack of shooting last year...

Lack of shooting and inability to create their own shot.

I really do think that it will be De Wilson, Juan, Jamil, Chris....and either Todd or JJJ. 

[thanooj]

Gardner and otule both start. Seniors. At first timeout Steve take jr enters for one of them and than, along with McKay, a rotation plays out for the rest of the way. Gardner starts and finishes the game.

[Archies Bat]

Gardner and otule both start. Seniors. At first timeout Steve take jr enters for one of them and than, along with McKay, a rotation plays out for the rest of the way. Gardner starts and finishes the game.

There is some good logic based upon observation is this.

[NersEllenson]

Gardner and otule both start. Seniors. At first timeout Steve take jr enters for one of them and than, along with McKay, a rotation plays out for the rest of the way. Gardner starts and finishes the game.

Completely agree..

[APieperFan3]

5. Otule -Gardner would never win the opening tip.
4. Wilson-but I could see Gardner there in a gimmick lineup or Taylor because of hustle. No matter what Wilson plays high minutes at 4.
3. Anderson-Wilson a possiblity in gimmick lineup, JJJ will get minutes, but Juan will get majority of minutes.
2. Mayo who will will have breakout year and follow Blue's poor decision making, JJJ will get as many minutes as his defense allows.
1. Derrick

I think Wilson plays the 3 more than the 4 this season. And any minutes he plays at the 3 causes BIG problems for opposing teams.

We have Mckay, Gardner, STJ who are all able to play the 4...When Otule is in the game, that will give us a chance to have Jamil play the 3.

[GGGG]

Gardner and otule both start. Seniors. At first timeout Steve take jr enters for one of them and than, along with McKay, a rotation plays out for the rest of the way. Gardner starts and finishes the game.

Buzz isn't going to start someone just because they are seniors.

The problem I have is that Gardner and Otule on the same floor worked for one game....when Syracuse didn't know how to handle Gardner at the high post.  They completely took that away in the Elite 8 game.  IMO, that line up is a change up at best.

Juan started all last year.  I see no reason why that would change.  They moved his position to the spot that Trent played last year for a reason.  He will start and get minutes there.

[mu03eng]

Jamil will not play the 4 much this season, no reason for him to with Gardner, Taylor, and McKay.  Depending on how Mayo is recovering from his injury, handling life in general I think the starting line-up is

DeWil
Mayo
Jamil
Taylor
Otule

Anderson and Gardner are the first of the bench

[NersEllenson]

Buzz isn't going to start someone just because they are seniors.

The problem I have is that Gardner and Otule on the same floor worked for one game....when Syracuse didn't know how to handle Gardner at the high post.  They completely took that away in the Elite 8 game.  IMO, that line up is a change up at best.

Juan started all last year.  I see no reason why that would change.  They moved his position to the spot that Trent played last year for a reason.  He will start and get minutes there.

I tend to think both Otule and Gardner are more advanced, better and ready to play their "natural" positions of the 5 and 4, than have they been in past years.  Davante has said he and Otule will be on the floor a good bit together this year.  Yet to your point, Buzz has also said he thinks speed beats size so it would seem a little against the grain of his coaching belief to play both together.  However, just because you start them together, doesn't necessarily mean they play long stretches together in the game.  

So much flexibility Buzz has with this year's team.  Exciting to consider all the options.

[GGGG]

I just don't think Gardner is a natural 4.  I see him as an undersized 5.

[GOO]

Jamil will not play the 4 much this season, no reason for him to with Gardner, Taylor, and McKay.  Depending on how Mayo is recovering from his injury, handling life in general I think the starting line-up is

DeWil
Mayo
Jamil
Taylor
Otule

Anderson and Gardner are the first of the bench

I think this will be the lineup, but, I do think that Gardner will start at times for Otule.  It will be depend on the game. I like rotating starters better than starting both of them, unless we are playing a team will bigger and slower PF's and C's who slow it and us down.  Then they both could start, but I still don't like starting both of our natural 5's.  They are natural 5's and one needs to be the backup, even if they pretty much split time. 

When we need more offense inside or the game is slowing down, Gardner gets more time as we pound the ball inside.   When we play fast, I can see both of them on the bench, but not too often, as they both offer so much at the 5.  When we need defense against a C with size, I see Otule getting more time.

I could see both starting like Buzz has done, to reward effort, with one getting pulled, as mentioned.  I hope not, as this is more gimmicky and doesn't seem very effective.

The 5 spot will be fluid this year, I suspect. Two great talents who bring different game dimensions to the team. 

Anderson or Jamil will play some back up 4 this year as well as the 3.

McKay will be on the bench to start the season.  I hope their is consideration to red-shirting him, but I doubt it, given our history of not red-shirting players.

[mu03eng]

I just don't think Gardner is a natural 4.  I see him as an undersized 5.

This is where we definitely disagree.  Gardner has elements of his game that are conducive to playing the 5, but his skill set is so much more than that.  Look at what he did to Syracuse, he played a mid-range game and tore them apart.  I expect to see much more of that, he can face-up and shoot, he even has the quickness to drive it if his man checks hard on the shot.  I view Gardner right now as a middle class man's Zack Randolph.  Making him playing the 5 exclusively hampers a lot of his other capabilities.

Where he could spend time at the 5 is if defense is not a big concern and Buzz wants to spread the other team like say a 2-3 zone.

[GGGG]

This is where we definitely disagree.  Gardner has elements of his game that are conducive to playing the 5, but his skill set is so much more than that.  Look at what he did to Syracuse, he played a mid-range game and tore them apart.  I expect to see much more of that, he can face-up and shoot, he even has the quickness to drive it if his man checks hard on the shot.  I view Gardner right now as a middle class man's Zack Randolph.  Making him playing the 5 exclusively hampers a lot of his other capabilities.

Where he could spend time at the 5 is if defense is not a big concern and Buzz wants to spread the other team like say a 2-3 zone.

Again, I would like to see a sample size of more than one game to show what he can do at the four.  Also I would argue that he played that game more as a high post center and not as a power forward.

Furthermore, most of the damage he did was when Steve Taylor was on the floor and not Chris Otule.  Why?  Because I don't think Davante can adequately guard the other team's 4.  And IMO that is a huge problem with Davante.  He isn't quick enough to play the "middle class Randolph" role on the defensive end.

I guess I just don't see why we have this desire to have the two of them on the floor at the same time.  I can see running Davante out of the high post, but I would argue that it would work much better with McKay or Taylor than with Otule.

[Clam Crowder]

With Buzz I see

Derrick
Todd/Juan-I could see this one go either way
Jamil
Jameel (Unless Ox can keep up with the team)
Otule

[mu03eng]

Again, I would like to see a sample size of more than one game to show what he can do at the four.  Also I would argue that he played that game more as a high post center and not as a power forward.

Furthermore, most of the damage he did was when Steve Taylor was on the floor and not Chris Otule.  Why?  Because I don't think Davante can adequately guard the other team's 4.  And IMO that is a huge problem with Davante.  He isn't quick enough to play the "middle class Randolph" role on the defensive end.

I guess I just don't see why we have this desire to have the two of them on the floor at the same time.  I can see running Davante out of the high post, but I would argue that it would work much better with McKay or Taylor than with Otule.

I agree with the defensive portion of your statement, Gardner hasn't to date been able to stay with the opponents 4, but we'll see what happens early in the season.  I think the OxTule line up in intriguing but not necessary.  Ultimately I would rather see Gardner and Taylor play together in the front court and we go without a true 5.  What we suffer defensively I think we more than make up in rebounding and offensive firepower.  Plus if you have Juan, Jamil, and DeWil in this line-up puts a premium on the other team even getting an entry pass in limiting the impact of Ox on the defensive end.

[Lennys Tap]

This is where we definitely disagree.  Gardner has elements of his game that are conducive to playing the 5, but his skill set is so much more than that.  Look at what he did to Syracuse, he played a mid-range game and tore them apart.  I expect to see much more of that, he can face-up and shoot, he even has the quickness to drive it if his man checks hard on the shot.  I view Gardner right now as a middle class man's Zack Randolph.  Making him playing the 5 exclusively hampers a lot of his other capabilities.

Where he could spend time at the 5 is if defense is not a big concern and Buzz wants to spread the other team like say a 2-3 zone.

Good call on the Zack Randolph comparison. On the offensive end, Davante has an outstanding post up game, but he also a good face up shooter, passer and ball handler. He doesn't rebound it like Randolph, but very few do. I'm way out on a limb here, but I think Gardner is our best all around offensive player since Wade.

Defense? That's the rub. Not quite tall enough to defend the 5, not quite quick enough to defend the 4. And stamina has been a problem - but he looks to be in pretty good shape this year.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Again, I would like to see a sample size of more than one game to show what he can do at the four.  Also I would argue that he played that game more as a high post center and not as a power forward.

Furthermore, most of the damage he did was when Steve Taylor was on the floor and not Chris Otule.  Why?  Because I don't think Davante can adequately guard the other team's 4.  And IMO that is a huge problem with Davante.  He isn't quick enough to play the "middle class Randolph" role on the defensive end.

I guess I just don't see why we have this desire to have the two of them on the floor at the same time.  I can see running Davante out of the high post, but I would argue that it would work much better with McKay or Taylor than with Otule.

I agree. Just because Gardner can hit a couple of jumpers doesn't mean he's suddenly a PF. Also, I'm still not sure that Buzz even wants Gardner to take those shots, given that Gardner is so efficient in the post. Why waste an attempt with a jumper... unless it's the only shot he can get (zone defense).

With this said, I can see Buzz starting them both together, and then subbing early and rotating from there on out. It gives Buzz a lot of flexibility in the first 5-8min of the game because he can sub out 1 or both of them if he wants to change the pace of the game.

The key to all of this will be McKay, Jamil, and Steve's versatility. If Buzz trusts those guys to guard bigger players, then he can risk putting Gardner and Otule in the game at the same time... and I think the first 5min. of each half might be the best time to do it.

[Lennys Tap]

I agree. Just because Gardner can hit a couple of jumpers doesn't mean he's suddenly a PF. Also, I'm still not sure that Buzz even wants Gardner to take those shots, given that Gardner is so efficient in the post. Why waste an attempt with a jumper... unless it's the only shot he can get (zone defense).

Gardner is off the charts efficient in the post so that's where he'll be most of the time. But against a zone or maybe a really big, tough inside defender why not move him out to the high post? He can shoot it better than anyone on the team other than Jake and he has great hands and court vision. I'd love to see us run a little of Bill Self's high/low offense, with Davante and Steve as interchangeable parts. Doesn't work as well with Chris (he can't play outside), don't know yet about Jameel.

[mu03eng]

Gardner is off the charts efficient in the post so that's where he'll be most of the time. But against a zone or maybe a really big, tough inside defender why not move him out to the high post? He can shoot it better than anyone on the team other than Jake and he has great hands and court vision. I'd love to see us run a little of Bill Self's high/low offense, with Davante and Steve as interchangeable parts. Doesn't work as well with Chris (he can't play outside), don't know yet about Jameel.

If McKay is going to get any PT, this is how he is going to have to get it.  He seems a high motor, athletic player, but I just don't see how his game fits with the pieces we have.  Very tiny sample size, but unless McKay can play the high low there is no way he and Gardner play together, leaving him to only play with Otule.

[brewcity77]

Because I don't think Davante can adequately guard the other team's 4.  And IMO that is a huge problem with Davante.  He isn't quick enough to play the "middle class Randolph" role on the defensive end.

This exactly. I love Davante, and he has worked tremendously hard on his defense, but his game is not covering a true inside-out 4. Buzz loves having the center flash a hand into the face of the ball-handler on the perimeter before drifting back to the low post. That works well with Otule, but not nearly as well with Gardner. The only way I see Gardner and Otule working effectively together on defense (which is where it matters) is if CO can guard the 4. Against some teams, that may work. But Otule seems fine playing 15-20 minutes, and I'm fine with Gardner playing 20-25. If there's some overlap, so be it, but I don't think we need to see CO getting 25 and DG getting 30 just because. Otherwise why have both McKay and Taylor on the roster?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Gardner is off the charts efficient in the post so that's where he'll be most of the time. But against a zone or maybe a really big, tough inside defender why not move him out to the high post? He can shoot it better than anyone on the team other than Jake and he has great hands and court vision. I'd love to see us run a little of Bill Self's high/low offense, with Davante and Steve as interchangeable parts. Doesn't work as well with Chris (he can't play outside), don't know yet about Jameel.

Yea, I love high low against a 2-3 zone. In specific situations, yes, Davante shouldn't hesitate to look for and/or shoot a jumper.

I'm just not as enamored with his outside shot as some other fans. He certainly has some ability, but looking for that kind of shot on a regular basis is probably a wasted opportunity. I know Buzz is a stat nerd, so certainly he understands efficiency and the opportunity cost of a Gardner jumpshot.