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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions  (Read 4701 times)

CrackedSidewalksSays

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[Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions
« on: October 04, 2007, 07:00:07 AM »
Some early MU predictions
 Some early MU predictions and ruminations

With nine days left until Midnight Madness, the most anticipated season in recent Marquette basketball history is nearly upon us. The Golden Eagles return every viable contributor from last season and welcome an influx of exciting talent to the roster. Coming off of back-to-back NCAA appearances that rightly established the program as a viable Big East contender - - the 2007-2008 squad should once again be among the conference's elite, if not the nation's.

So while we wait for real games, reports from practice, and maybe a verbal commitment or two . . . . . here are a few concerns and predictions for the upcoming season.

Run, Run Away: If MU's performances in Vancouver are any indication, this team will run like hell. Dwight Burke barely broke a sweat in the games up north, and Barro was Barro.....which is to mean he's the only player taller than 6'8 who is allowed to touch, much less shoot the ball. So it appears that MU will run four-guard sets routinely this year......and will pressure the ball with increasing frequency as the season wears on. Goodness.

Key to the season: Dan Fitzgerald. Fitz was underutilized last season despite hitting on 43% of his three-pointers. The kid needs more shots, but to do that he has to be on the floor. If Fitz can improve his defense and stay out of early foul trouble, look for him to have a surprising senior season and stretch defenses. Crean has a habit of enabling seniors to have breakthrough final seasons on campus. Fitz will be next.

Most likely to struggle: David Cubillan. With Maurice Acker in the mix, look for Cubillan to struggle with his role in a more crowded backcourt. Crean needs PGs who can run a north-south offense, even in the halfcourt. David is an east-west player when he's at the helm, unable to beat defenders off the dribble. How will he adjust?

Biggest concern: Three point shooting. If MU rolls out a four-guard lineup with any regularity, those fellas better hit some shots from deep. Of course, we know that the Three Amigos have not exactly proven to be great shooters.......so it comes back to Fitz, Cubillan, Hayward (I am presuming that he'll find his stroke this season) and maybe Christopherson. Now, if Cubillan struggles to adapt to his new role as predicted - - well, Dan Fitzgerald must lead the pack.

Most pleasant surprise: Dan Fitzgerald. see above.

Breath of fresh air: Maurice Acker. MU will now have three guards on the roster who can break down a defense. With only James and McNeal capable of putting pressure on a defense last season, Crean's rotation was somewhat limited despite the obvious backcourt depth. With Acker, MU will be able to move McNeal and James off the ball more than ever -- making the Golden Eagles' attack all the more potent.

Most frustrating player: Dwight Burke. He's a big body that'll have a moment or two this season but his poor footwork and lack of an offensive game betray his big body. Burke is what he is and will be as a collegian -- a below average post player on an ill-conceived baseline rotation.

Please Redshirt: Scott Christoperson. The kid is a gamer so let's not waste a year of his talent on mop-up duty in this loaded MU backcourt. Wasting a year on the active roster -- that's exactly what MU did when Barro was a freshman. Can you imagine Barro as a redshirt junior this year? Let's give Christopherson the gift of time.

Please Don't Redshirt: Patrick Hazel. MU could use the extra minutes on the baseline once in a while and he doesn't project to be a starter, much less a star. Can Hazel give MU some high-energy minutes and spot production on the baseline? Let's find out.

Player I Can't Wait to see: Lazar Hayward. Hayward's dramatic and consistent progression last season was a pleasure to witness. With one full year in Crean's program, expect to see an even more diversified, assertive forward this season. Still, it is troubling to realize that Hayward will line up at the PF slot this year.....how is that for proof that this roster's frontcourt is questionable?

Finally, he'll help: Trend Blackledge. Look, MU doesn't need this kid to score - - but a few minutes of high energy on defense and perhaps some garbage baskets will work wonders for this veteran team. Plus, in the last few seasons MU has been routinely torched by SFs (Tucker, Nichols, Green, on and on and on), and Blackledge should help there (much to Wesley Matthews' benefit).

Best Player on the Court: Wesley Matthews. Give me the solid, consistent contributor who improves every year. Matthews is that guy for MU. He'll be a breakthrough performer nationally in 2007-2008, and make a living playing this game soon enough.

Role Player MU needs most: Trevor Mbakwe. If you need any proof of how much Crean needs Mbakwe kid to play this season, please review Dwight Burke's career numbers. If Mbakwe is cleared by the NCAA, the program will strengthened immediately and years to come.

T-minus 9 days.

I. Can't. Wait.
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2007/10/some-early-mu-predictions.html
« Last Edit: October 04, 2007, 08:17:11 AM by mu_hilltopper »

bilsu

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions
« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2007, 08:02:07 AM »
The faster the offense gets down the floor, the less important a three point shot becomes. To me redshirting Christopherson would depend sonewhat on this year's recuiting class. If we get Shuppert, I do not think we redshirt Chritopherson. Based on Culliban's inability to take the ball to the basket, I think Christopherson plays more than you think. Also the four guard offfense can only be successful if you are pushing it on both offense and defense. Therefore minutes for James, Matthews, and McNeal should decrease as they will need more rest. I think Christoperson will play more than you think and have more minutes than Culliban.

tower912

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions
« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2007, 08:30:50 AM »
Play Christopherson, anticipate an injury or two.   JM gets hurt, and suddenly we feel short-handed at guard.   Push the ball, and there will be a few minutes a game available for him.
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NYWarrior

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions
« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2007, 08:39:35 AM »
Play Christopherson, anticipate an injury or two.   JM gets hurt, and suddenly we feel short-handed at guard.   Push the ball, and there will be a few minutes a game available for him.

If there are meaningful minutes, great, that'd be upside.  Depends on how often MU goes to four-guard sets.

However, with Acker joining the roster Christopherson will be the 5th wheel in the MU backcourt (James, McNeal, Cubillan, Acker) -- and if Hayward can play the wing as Fitz has done . . . minutes could be tough to come by, even with an injury.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2007, 08:43:46 AM by NYWarrior »

bma725

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions
« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2007, 09:08:09 AM »
Play Christopherson, anticipate an injury or two.   JM gets hurt, and suddenly we feel short-handed at guard.   Push the ball, and there will be a few minutes a game available for him.

If there are meaningful minutes, great, that'd be upside.  Depends on how often MU goes to four-guard sets.

However, with Acker joining the roster Christopherson will be the 5th wheel in the MU backcourt (James, McNeal, Cubillan, Acker) -- and if Hayward can play the wing as Fitz has done . . . minutes could be tough to come by, even with an injury.


I think a better question is can Hayward play down low full time?  He's a natural small forward, and some schools recruited him as a shooting guard.  I'd be less concerned about his ability to play the wing and more worried about how he'll hold up banging down low every game.

4everwarriors

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Christopherson's Too Good To Sit
« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2007, 09:10:41 PM »
Not only can he shoot it, but he's a smart BB player. No point to redshirting this playa, he'll contribute valuble minutes this season.
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

Pardner

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Re: Christopherson's Too Good To Sit
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2007, 10:18:06 AM »
Not only can he shoot it, but he's a smart BB player. No point to redshirting this playa, he'll contribute valuble minutes this season.
First, I think it is a great sign that we are deep enough even have this conversation about him.  That said, playing four guards, going all out in games and practices, likely foul trouble--especially on the road--due to full court pressure, inevitable injuries and wear and tear and the need for trey depth (with Fitz and dCube), leads me to believe Cristopherson will play significant minutes.  This is going to be a special year--we will need his shooting somewhere along the line.  Don't leave it at home.

Great synopsis by Cracked.  I think Ooze and Mbakwe are the keys.  Both are really PF's...but, with the two of them, we now have the front court depth that will allow Lazar to step out more...or to open him for a dribble drive.  This sets Burke for what his true value is-- muscle, breather minutes and hard fouls against bigs.  By playing small against the match-up zones we will be seeing in the BE, we need dribble penetration off the half-court weave offense to get us to the hoop; to draw fouls (erode other teams' depth), for a kick out jumper (more looks for Fitz) and more importantly, to score at the foul line (we need to hit the free throws).  #1 in BE with our depth and looks.

DAtruth

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2007, 07:58:53 AM »
biggest impact imo will be mo ack..i think he will prove himself to be one of the 5 best players on the team and make it possible to run a 4 guard lineup..with dj, jm and ack on the floor at once there isnt a defense that can keep them out of the lane (btw 1 of the best scorers in the "lane" in the nba..steve nash) everybody will get more open looks from the perimeter..open looks in general..

jm cuts down on turnovers and becomes a 2nd/3rd pg on the floor..gets tons of attention from the pros..doesnt enter draft but is projected to be a first round pick going into his sr yr..

finally ...dj realizes how close this team is to being "elite" level and says he'll return to mu for his sr campaign by mid season

4everwarriors

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Dreaming
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2007, 06:59:34 PM »
Can't run without the rock. In your 4 guard line-up who's going to rebound? Also, for better or for worse, DJ won't be back for a senior season.
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rocky_warrior

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Re: Dreaming
« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2007, 07:11:25 PM »
Can't run without the rock. In your 4 guard line-up who's going to rebound? Also, for better or for worse, DJ won't be back for a senior season.

Well, Lets go back to last years stats - for the remaining scholarship players, per game rebounds averaged out to...
6.9 Ousmane Barro
5.3 Wesley Matthews
4.8 Jerel McNeal
3.9 Dan Fitzgerald
3.6 Lazar Hayward
3.1 Dominic James
2.4 Maurice Acker (average from Ball State in 05-06)
1.9 David Cubillan
1.8 Dwight Burke
1.4 Lawrence Blackledge   

So...assuming we play Ooze, Matthews, McNeal, James and Acker they'll only lose about 1.2 rebounds/game from not playing Lazar more minutes.

So....what's the beef?

jaygall31

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions
« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2007, 08:42:37 PM »
I agree in saying the 4 guard lineup isn't far off, but I see the same starting lineup as last year TO START THE YEAR...the big 3, barro & hayward. Lets give Coach some credit here, if he doesn't see the 4 guard starting lineup working in a conference that I believe got deeper, he won't. He's not stupid. Acker is going to be a bigger asset to this team then you and I can even picture right now. Like Jerel said in the SI interview, there isn't much HE (mcneal) can't do (ie Rebound?)

Obviously we gotta have our heads on straight by the time we get to Maui, but we've got time, and I tend to believe TC knows what he's doing.

By the way...does anyone feel that for this team to take it to "THE" level, we need someone another than DJ to lead this team in scoring? I'd love for him to throw 11-12 pts and 7ish Assists a game. maybe Wesley leading the team in scoring?
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Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions
« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2007, 08:00:03 AM »
I agree in saying the 4 guard lineup isn't far off, but I see the same starting lineup as last year TO START THE YEAR...the big 3, barro & hayward. Lets give Coach some credit here, if he doesn't see the 4 guard starting lineup working in a conference that I believe got deeper, he won't. He's not stupid. Acker is going to be a bigger asset to this team then you and I can even picture right now. Like Jerel said in the SI interview, there isn't much HE (mcneal) can't do (ie Rebound?)

Obviously we gotta have our heads on straight by the time we get to Maui, but we've got time, and I tend to believe TC knows what he's doing.

By the way...does anyone feel that for this team to take it to "THE" level, we need someone another than DJ to lead this team in scoring? I'd love for him to throw 11-12 pts and 7ish Assists a game. maybe Wesley leading the team in scoring?

I think this season could be the break-out year for Wes (to use a tired cliche).

Last year McNeal really stepped his game up all season long. Wes got off to a slow start, but became an excellent free throw shooter and got to the line a lot (the biggest improvement in his game).

If Wes starts this season like he finished last year... MU is going to be very, very tough. Wes can get to the rack often (when not facing a zone) and he is strong enough to finish and/or get fouled. So, provided that MU can hit enough jumpers to keep teams from going to a 2-3, Wes should be a very effective scorer.

jaygall31

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions
« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2007, 09:45:40 AM »
2002, do you think that we DO need a leading scorer that doesn't have the initials DJ to be GREAT?
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Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions
« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2007, 10:31:47 AM »
2002, do you think that we DO need a leading scorer that doesn't have the initials DJ to be GREAT?

Well, my personal preference is to have my PG be a distributor first and a scorer second (simply personal preference).

Now, I realize that a guard of DJ's talent can score, and should not be simply used as a distributor because he can fill it up when he's on. (and for full disclosure I am a DJ fan).


So, I guess my answer is this:

Does MU need a leading scorer not named DJ to be great?
No, I think they can be great with him still scoring a lot... provided that his shot selection and shooting % improve.

Will MU be great if the leading scorer isn't DJ?
I will say yes, because it will mean that others on the team are scoring and this will allow DJ to distribute first and shoot second.

I've said it in previous posts, but I really believe that DJ can effect the game in so many ways outside of shooting.

Jason Kidd has never been seen as a great scorer, but he was/is widely considered a great PG because of the effect he has on the game.

Now, DJ isn't Jason Kidd... but he does have the talent (defense, rebounding, speed, handles, vision, strength) to effect the game when he isn't shooting. Mateen Cleeves also comes to mind. He was never considered a great "shooter"... but was a fantastic college PG because of all of the things he could do.

Sorry for the long post... but I just want to be clear.

Pardner

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Some early MU predictions
« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2007, 03:42:59 PM »
?

Well, my personal preference is to have my PG be a distributor first and a scorer second (simply personal preference).

Now, I realize that a guard of DJ's talent can score, and should not be simply used as a distributor because he can fill it up when he's on. (and for full disclosure I am a DJ fan).

[/quote]

Mo is a distributor PG who can also hit the trey.  DJ is at his best as a dribble drive PG going north to south.  DJ would be a better fit with a high post offense, frankly.  The MSU game showed how he struggles with the 2-3 match-up zone.  He held/dribbled the ball out front too long in the half court.  MSU cut off his initial penetration and pushed him back, creating spacing problems for the rest of the offense.   Mo will create more in the half court MU offense, IMO.   DJ will be the main benefactor of Mo's addition.

 

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