Only scenario for MU to win #1 seed in BET...

[wardle2wade]

I did all of the scenarios and mini-conference tiebreakers...

The only way MU gets the #1 seed in the BET is... Georgetown loses both (@Nova, Cuse) AND Lou loses one (Cincy, ND).  Obviously MU would have to win out as well.

Under no circumstance does Marquette win a tie breaker with Georgetown, Louisville, or both.

Regarding the Georgetown tiebreaker...
1) If Louisville splits (ends 13-5), GT wins... GT 1-0 vs Lou, Mu 0-1 vs Lou.
2) Even is Lou loses both, GT has the edge.  I checked the 3rd place mini-conf with all combos of Lou, ND, Pitt, and Cuse at 12-6.  The only of those teams MU has the advantage over Georgetown is vs Pitt.  Unfortunately Pitt's collapse vs ND on Big Monday proved to be the decision maker... it cost them in all the mini-conferences and they can't earn the 3rd seed.

I'll spare you more details, but I am absolutely certain of this.

Again this is just for the BET.  Thankfully, Big East (like the B1G) shares Champions if you tie for first.

Pretty phenomenal year to be in the hunt like this.

[TallTitan34]

I'm more than happy with a tie.

[wardle2wade]

Silver lining... the #1 seed plays at 11am on Thursday at MSG.  MU can't do worse than 3rd seed, so we're a safe bet for the night double-header.  Hopefully MU finally gets over the semi-final hump this year.

[wardle2wade]

I'm more than happy with a tie.

+1000000000000

Wasn't griping, just clearing up the Big East tiebreaker mess.

[TallTitan34]

I don't think Georgetown is going to lose though.  It hurts to say but hopefully Cuse turns it around on the Hoyas. 

[wardle2wade]

I don't think Georgetown is going to lose though.  It hurts to say but hopefully Cuse turns it around on the Hoyas. 

Yeah, that ship may have sailed when they beat Uconn.  It was a miracle that Uconn even got to OT, but they really blew it.  Boatright loves going into one-on-one playground mode.  That being said, Georgetown has arguably the best player in the nation with Porter who made clutch plays down the stretch.

[strotty]

I can't find a scenario where Marquette finishes fourth, even if they lose both. But it's late.

[wardle2wade]

I can't find a scenario where Marquette finishes fourth, even if they lose both. But it's late.

MU locked into at least 3rd.  The dork in me put it to paper for 5min.  However, Paint Touches tweeted a little bit ago (you?) that we need a Louisville win to clinch 3rd, but that's can't be true. Lou is 4th in a mini conf with a doomsday 12-6 tie of ND (2-1), MU (1-1), and Lou (1-2).  It will have meant ND has two wins over Lou (including last game of season.)

[brewcity77]

I want nothing to do with UL. If we don't win the league outright (now highly unlikely) I just want to avoid Louisville. Somehow I don't think that's going to happen, so I hope Junior has a huge redemption game if we play them.

[chren21]

I'll take us and Georgetown in a tie and ride off into the new era of the C7 / Big East.  I just ask that Louisville loses...

[muguru]

I want nothing to do with UL. If we don't win the league outright (now highly unlikely) I just want to avoid Louisville. Somehow I don't think that's going to happen, so I hope Junior has a huge redemption game if we play them.

Unfortunately, I don't think that's going to happen. Almost every scenario I have run has MU as the #2 or #3 seed and UL the other. Since MU can't finish #4 in the BET tiebreakers, the ONLY way to avoid them is to get the #1 seed(very unlikely), and they be #2 or #3. Here are the 6 possible scenarios:

BET seeding scenarios for teams with 3-5 losses
Seed is listed first.  BET seeding tiebreakers have been applied.

Scenario 1:
1 -- GT 15-3 or 14-4
2 -- LOU 14-4
3 -- MAR 14-4 or 13-5

Scenario 2:
1 -- GT 15-3 or 14-4 or 13-5
2 -- LOU 13-5
3 -- MAR 13-5

Scenario 3:
1 -- LOU 14-4
2 -- GT 13-5
3 -- MAR 13-5

Scenario 4:
1 -- LOU 14-4
2 -- MAR 14-4
3 -- GT 13-5

Scenario 5:
1 -- MAR 14-4
2 -- GT 13-5
3 -- LOU 13-5

Scenario 6:
1 -- GT 15-3 or 14-4
2 -- MAR 14-4
3 -- LOU 13-5


There are 3 scenarios whereby MU could avoid UL till Saturday night.. #1...MU wins out, GT loses BOTH, UL loses 1. #2 UL and MU win out; GT loses both; #3 UL wins out, GT loses both, MU goes 1-1. No matter what, GT MUST lose both games for MU to have a chance to avoid UL until Sat. night. We will know for sure if it's even possible after Wednesday night when GT travels to Nova(who they own by the way). UL plays tomm night at home vs. Cincy.

[BallBoy]

Unfortunately, I don't think that's going to happen. Almost every scenario I have run has MU as the #2 or #3 seed and UL the other. Since MU can't finish #4 in the BET tiebreakers, the ONLY way to avoid them is to get the #1 seed(very unlikely), and they be #2 or #3. Here are the 6 possible scenarios:

BET seeding scenarios for teams with 3-5 losses
Seed is listed first.  BET seeding tiebreakers have been applied.

Scenario 1:
1 -- GT 15-3 or 14-4
2 -- LOU 14-4
3 -- MAR 14-4 or 13-5

Scenario 2:
1 -- GT 15-3 or 14-4 or 13-5
2 -- LOU 13-5
3 -- MAR 13-5

Scenario 3:
1 -- LOU 14-4
2 -- GT 13-5
3 -- MAR 13-5

Scenario 4:
1 -- LOU 14-4
2 -- MAR 14-4
3 -- GT 13-5

Scenario 5:
1 -- MAR 14-4
2 -- GT 13-5
3 -- LOU 13-5

Scenario 6:
1 -- GT 15-3 or 14-4
2 -- MAR 14-4
3 -- LOU 13-5


There are 3 scenarios whereby MU could avoid UL till Saturday night.. #1...MU wins out, GT loses BOTH, UL loses 1. #2 UL and MU win out; GT loses both; #3 UL wins out, GT loses both, MU goes 1-1. No matter what, GT MUST lose both games for MU to have a chance to avoid UL until Sat. night. We will know for sure if it's even possible after Wednesday night when GT travels to Nova(who they own by the way). UL plays tomm night at home vs. Cincy.

Pretty sure there other options but you only looked at 3 teams. If Louisville loses both and ND wins both then ND would get the third seed MU could go 1-1 in that scenario. ND would have two wins against Louisville. If you look Louisville hasn't clinched the double bye yet

[muguru]

Pretty sure there other options but you only looked at 3 teams. If Louisville loses both and ND wins both then ND would get the third seed MU could go 1-1 in that scenario. ND would have two wins against Louisville. If you look Louisville hasn't clinched the double bye yet

UL has NOT clinched the double bye yet, and that is because of the tiebreakers they would lose against teams that currently have 6 losses. They are about as close as close can be to clinching one though. Notre Dame would NOT get the #3 seed ahead of MU in that scenario....why?? because MU beat Georgetown, Notre Dame did not. The tiebreaker is wins against the highest team in the standings...which would be Georgetown. MU beat Georgetown, Notre Dame did not, therefore Notre Dame cannot finish ahead of MU in that scenario.

I ran the tiebreakers amongst the teams that can win the #1 seed. That is only GU, MU or UL. MU cannot finish lower than #3 for BE tiebreaking scenarios.

[MUMonster03]

I'll take us and Georgetown in a tie and ride off into the new era of the C7 / Big East.  I just ask that Louisville loses...

+1

Been saying this for a while. Hopefully Cincy brings it on Monday and knocks them off.

[BallBoy]

UL has NOT clinched the double bye yet, and that is because of the tiebreakers they would lose against teams that currently have 6 losses. They are about as close as close can be to clinching one though. Notre Dame would NOT get the #3 seed ahead of MU in that scenario....why?? because MU beat Georgetown, Notre Dame did not. The tiebreaker is wins against the highest team in the standings...which would be Georgetown. MU beat Georgetown, Notre Dame did not, therefore Notre Dame cannot finish ahead of MU in that scenario.

I ran the tiebreakers amongst the teams that can win the #1 seed. That is only GU, MU or UL. MU cannot finish lower than #3 for BE tiebreaking scenarios.

Who said Notre Dame would finish in front of Marq? But any scenario where MU is not 1 when UL is 4 or 5 or MU is one when UL is 2 and 3 is a scenario where we avoid them until the championship game.  In the scenario I described,  ND wins both and gets the three seed, MU gets the 2 and UL is 4 or 5. The fault in your scenarios is that you assumed that UL can't do worse than third which isn't true. If UL loses 2 there is a good chance they are a 4 seed as they would have lost to ND twice.

[MU82]

This all gives me a headache.

How about: Bring on Louisville whenever and let's kick their a$$e$!!!

[drewm88]

All these potential outcomes are a little hard to track, so apologies if I'm missing something here or someone's already posted this...

We go 2-0 -- plausible
Louisville goes 0-2 -- somewhat unlikely but not incredibly so
Georgetown goes 1-1 (W @ Nova, L vs. Cuse) -- very possible
Cuse, Pitt, ND win out -- simple if you already assume the above because all that's left is STJ and Depaul x2 for this group

Marquette 14-4
Georgetown 14-4

Louisville 12-6
ND 12-6
Syracuse 12-6
Pitt 12-6

First tiebreaker is 1-1
Second tiebreaker is record against the 12-6 group:
MU 4-1
Georgetown 3-2

We share the BE title with Georgetown but take the 1 seed.

Am I missing something here?

EDIT: I thought the "record against next best team" tiebreaker does mini-conferences if there are ties in the standings. Do they shake out those seeds first and then check the next best win?

[muguru]

Who said Notre Dame would finish in front of Marq? But any scenario where MU is not 1 when UL is 4 or 5 or MU is one when UL is 2 and 3 is a scenario where we avoid them until the championship game.  In the scenario I described,  ND wins both and gets the three seed, MU gets the 2 and UL is 4 or 5. The fault in your scenarios is that you assumed that UL can't do worse than third which isn't true. If UL loses 2 there is a good chance they are a 4 seed as they would have lost to ND twice.

Hey, don't blame me, I actually stole that from the Louisville board.