2013 MLB Thread

[MerrittsMustache]

More likely to be in the playoffs this year with Lohse than without him.  That's the point.

While I definitely think they overpaid him, the NL Central is pretty wide open. Take a chance and see what happens.

[GGGG]

I don't disagree that they're marginally better with Lohse than without him (advanced stats say about 2 wins better). But doing deals like this is how you end up with one of the worst farm systems in baseball with little to show for it. And I liked the Greinke and CC deals, and even the Marcum deal. But this Brewers team is not those teams, and to add 2 wins for almost $10mm per year plus deferred payments plus giving your top draft pick was not a wise move.

Why did they have to give up their top draft pick?  That is the part of this I don't understand.

[Hards Alumni]

I don't disagree that they're marginally better with Lohse than without him (advanced stats say about 2 wins better). But doing deals like this is how you end up with one of the worst farm systems in baseball with little to show for it. And I liked the Greinke and CC deals, and even the Marcum deal. But this Brewers team is not those teams, and to add 2 wins for almost $10mm per year plus deferred payments plus giving your top draft pick was not a wise move.

+1.  It seems like a move the Bucks would make.  They think they are closer than they are this year.

[MerrittsMustache]

Why did they have to give up their top draft pick?  That is the part of this I don't understand.

I believe Lohse is a Type A free agent.

[🏀]

Why did they have to give up their top draft pick?  That is the part of this I don't understand.

New rules, this is why Lohse was still available.

Money isn't an issue for SP in this league, but giving up a first round pick is an issue.

[GGGG]

OK, looked this up....there are no more Type A free agents...

"Under the terms of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the structure has changed. The old Type A and Type B designations are gone. When a player reaches free agency, his former team may make him what is known as a qualifying offer, worth the average amount of the previous season's top 125 salaries -- $13.3 million this offseason.

If the player accepts the offer, again he is considered to be signed to a contract for the next season. If he declines, the team that signs him gives up a Draft pick, while the team losing the player gains one -- though not the same pick.

The signing team gives up a first-round selection, unless it possesses one of the first 10 selections. In that case, the team gives up its next selection after that. The team losing the player, meanwhile, gains a sandwich pick at the end of the first round. This applies as long as the player signs before the start of the next Draft."

[PBRme]

It's worth a shot for the Brewers. However, the Cardinals know what they're doing and are very successful at understanding that a year too early is better than a year too late. If they didn't want Lohse back, what does that tell you?

I think they offered more money per year but only a 2 year deal

[NavinRJohnson]

I don't disagree that they're marginally better with Lohse than without him (advanced stats say about 2 wins better). But doing deals like this is how you end up with one of the worst farm systems in baseball with little to show for it. And I liked the Greinke and CC deals, and even the Marcum deal. But this Brewers team is not those teams, and to add 2 wins for almost $10mm per year plus deferred payments plus giving your top draft pick was not a wise move.

Of course the Brewers under Doug Melvin have had one of the best farm systems in baseball, so a move like this doesn't really concern me. Nobody is pretending Lohse is a top line starter, nor is he being paid like one, but he obviously strengthens and deepens their rotation. There is every reason to believe they can compete for the division this year. It's the cost of doing business.

[MUfan12]

Guess who's back.... back again.... Yuni's back, tell a friend...

[shiloh26]

Of course the Brewers under Doug Melvin have had one of the best farm systems in baseball, so a move like this doesn't really concern me. Nobody is pretending Lohse is a top line starter, nor is he being paid like one, but he obviously strengthens and deepens their rotation. There is every reason to believe they can compete for the division this year. It's the cost of doing business.

We had THE best farm system in the mid '00s after years of terrible teams.  At that time, Prince, Rickie, JJ Hardy, Gallardo, Hart, and later Braun were bumping around in the minors.  Since they have been called up, we've had no impact players in the farm system, and we still don't (not counting LaPorta, Escobar or Lawrie, who were traded).  The likes of Keith Law (ESPN) and John Sickels (great minor league ball blog on SBNation) have ranked us near the bottom of farm system rankings since 2010.  And its hard to argue with them given the total lack of help from within our system over that time period. 

I also liked the Grienke, Sabathia, and Marcum deals because I felt that they helped a "very close" Brewers team get over the hump and make a playoff run.  I don't think the same thing about the Kyle Lohse signing.  He's 34 and has been mediocre in his entire career outside of pitching for Dave Duncan, who has turned the likes of friggin' Brad Penny into a serviceable starter for a year.  I don't think that Lohse is bad, and grabbing him certainly helps this year.  But to give him that money for those years, AND give up the 17th pick AND give the 28th pick to a division rival all to add him to a team that is not too close to making the playoffs is what I do not like. 

Perhaps I'm too pessimistic about this years Brewers team.  I just don't think they can compete with the Reds and Cards in the division.  Here's to proving me wrong, I'll love watching them regardless.   

The one argument I've read that I can get behind is that the Brewers have the smallest market in the MLB, and yet they still have been cranking out 2.5-3.0 million in attendance over the last half decade.  I think there is a fear that if we are straight up bad for a while, a-la the Rays in the early to mid 2000's to rebuild, we lose those butts in the seats, and all of the revenue that goes with it.  Lost revenue which hurts all the more given the small market and not-very-lucrative TV deal that the Brewers have.  So we sign guys like Lohse to stay semi-competitive and delay the eventual collapse. 

[Benny B]

... to add 2 wins for almost $10mm per year plus deferred payments plus giving your top draft pick was not a wise move.

Considering that the Brewers were 3 wins from making the playoffs last year, it's hard to buy into that logic.

Listen, I don't like the Lohse or the Yuni-B signings at all, but the Brewers aren't in the AL East... they're in a division and league where 1-2 wins is likely going to be the difference between who goes to the postseason and who stays home.  If you got a guy who gives you the +2 wins you need to get to the postseason, damn skippy that's worth $10M.

But I wholeheartedly disagree with the adv-stats... on paper, Lohse might say +2 wins; in reality that number is negative IMO.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Justin Verlander and Buster Posey both get huge multiyear extensions yesterday. Opening night tomorrow night for a few teams. Not in baseball mode yet as I'm still in MU mode of course.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Considering that the Brewers were 3 wins from making the playoffs last year, it's hard to buy into that logic.

The Brewers ended 5 games behind the final Wild Card spot.

According to Bill James, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, etc, Lohse is worth between 0.6 and 3.1 wins: "According to the annual projections offered by Bill James, Lohse could be worth 2.8 wins above replacement level. The ZiPS forecast is more optimistic, projecting Lohse to be worth 3.1 wins. They’re more pessimistic at Baseball Prospectus; BP rates Lohse’s value as 0.6 wins above the replacement level."

Add in Lohse's career numbers at Miller Park, (granted, these are obviously against a good Milwaukee offense), and I don't think he was worth the signing, (especially given the draft pick it cost).

At MP for Lohse: 44 IP, 56 Hits, 34 Runs all earned, 7 HR, 15 BB. 25 K, 6.95 ERA, 1.614 Whip, .890 OPS against.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

The Brewers ended 5 games behind the final Wild Card spot.

According to Bill James, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, etc, Lohse is worth between 0.6 and 3.1 wins: "According to the annual projections offered by Bill James, Lohse could be worth 2.8 wins above replacement level. The ZiPS forecast is more optimistic, projecting Lohse to be worth 3.1 wins. They’re more pessimistic at Baseball Prospectus; BP rates Lohse’s value as 0.6 wins above the replacement level."

Add in Lohse's career numbers at Miller Park, (granted, these are obviously against a good Milwaukee offense), and I don't think he was worth the signing, (especially given the draft pick it cost).

At MP for Lohse: 44 IP, 56 Hits, 34 Runs all earned, 7 HR, 15 BB. 25 K, 6.95 ERA, 1.614 Whip, .890 OPS against.

When will Melvin learn that Cardinals leftovers don't work on the Brewers?

[Hards Alumni]

The Brewers ended 5 games behind the final Wild Card spot.

According to Bill James, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, etc, Lohse is worth between 0.6 and 3.1 wins: "According to the annual projections offered by Bill James, Lohse could be worth 2.8 wins above replacement level. The ZiPS forecast is more optimistic, projecting Lohse to be worth 3.1 wins. They’re more pessimistic at Baseball Prospectus; BP rates Lohse’s value as 0.6 wins above the replacement level."

Add in Lohse's career numbers at Miller Park, (granted, these are obviously against a good Milwaukee offense), and I don't think he was worth the signing, (especially given the draft pick it cost).

At MP for Lohse: 44 IP, 56 Hits, 34 Runs all earned, 7 HR, 15 BB. 25 K, 6.95 ERA, 1.614 Whip, .890 OPS against.

Thanks for doing the work I was too lazy to do.

[Sunbelt15]

October can't get here fast enough!!

[ChicosBailBonds]

Go Halos.  Looking forward to the season starting.

[wadesworld]

The Brewers ended 5 games behind the final Wild Card spot.

According to Bill James, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, etc, Lohse is worth between 0.6 and 3.1 wins: "According to the annual projections offered by Bill James, Lohse could be worth 2.8 wins above replacement level. The ZiPS forecast is more optimistic, projecting Lohse to be worth 3.1 wins. They’re more pessimistic at Baseball Prospectus; BP rates Lohse’s value as 0.6 wins above the replacement level."

Add in Lohse's career numbers at Miller Park, (granted, these are obviously against a good Milwaukee offense), and I don't think he was worth the signing, (especially given the draft pick it cost).

At MP for Lohse: 44 IP, 56 Hits, 34 Runs all earned, 7 HR, 15 BB. 25 K, 6.95 ERA, 1.614 Whip, .890 OPS against.

He won't be pitching against Ryan Braun at MP anymore (and Prince Fielder for many of those innings).

[TallTitan34]

Not to change the subject, but I went to Minute Maid Park back in 2002 and it was a beautiful stadium.  Looking at it now on TV it looks awful.  They've nearly covered every square inching advertising.

[TallTitan34]

Eat more Fowl on the fouls poles.  Disgusting. 

[chapman]

Would have put a big pass on Lohse.  I understand there's only two or three guys who can go an entire season, but don't understand why you don't see if you're in it in July, if yes, trade for a starter, if no, the one thing the farm system does have is a plethora of potential 4 or 5 starters.  Don't like committing $33M plus losing the pick now.  Signing Yuni on the other hand I like, simply for laughs.
 

Not to change the subject, but I went to Minute Maid Park back in 2002 and it was a beautiful stadium.  Looking at it now on TV it looks awful.  They've nearly covered every square inching advertising.

Haven't been there, but from watching games I can't stand 1) the stupid hill, and 2) right-handed hitters hitting a pop-up to left that always seems to leave the yard.

[MerrittsMustache]

Hey! How 'bout those Cubs?

[Benny B]

Not to change the subject, but I went to Minute Maid Park back in 2002 and it was a beautiful stadium.  Looking at it now on TV it looks awful.  They've nearly covered every square inching advertising.

Well... when you're in the nation's 3rd largest metro area, with a team payroll less than what A-Rod will make this year, I suppose you have to pay the bills somehow.

[MU B2002]

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=330411125


Stupid crap from Carlos Quentin.  I am guessing next time he bats against the Dodgers he better wear some extra padding under his jersey.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Two things Carlos Quentin has always done well:

1.) get hit by pitches (I think he's got 109 career, beating second-place Utley by at least 15)
2.) losing his temper (he could have potentially been the MVP in '08 before he broke his hand in anger following a strikeout)

Quentin broke Grienke's collarbone in the scrum, and then Kemp and Quentin got into in it the parking lot after the game.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/12/benches-clear-after-zack-greinke-drills-carlos-quentin/