Who should we be cheering for today?

[brewcity77]

I agree.  If FSU wins this one, they pass MU.  One point game with seven to go........

FSU's not ahead of us yet. Their 3 best wins are great (Duke x 2, UNC) but those are the ONLY top-50 wins they have. They also have 2 bad losses, one of which is abysmally bad (Boston College). They probably moved up to the 4-line today, but no way are they ahead of us yet. They need to beat UNC tomorrow to move ahead of us.

[ATL MU Warrior]

FSU's not ahead of us yet. Their 3 best wins are great (Duke x 2, UNC) but those are the ONLY top-50 wins they have. They also have 2 bad losses, one of which is abysmally bad (Boston College). They probably moved up to the 4-line today, but no way are they ahead of us yet. They need to beat UNC tomorrow to move ahead of us.

Those three wins are ALL better than ANY win we have.  I would not be at all surprised if they move past us even if they get the crap kicked out of them tomorrow.  If they win tomorrow they are past us in a heartbeat. 

[chapman]

Those three wins are ALL better than ANY win we have.  I would not be at all surprised if they move past us even if they get the crap kicked out of them tomorrow.  If they win tomorrow they are past us in a heartbeat. 

That's what could potentially hurt us the most.  If the committee follows the ESPN/Jay Bilas mindset of it all being about who you've beaten then FSU, Baylor, Michigan, and even Indiana have top heavy wins that are better than ours.  If they care about not having bad losses then FSU, UM, and IU should fall behind us.  Comparing resumes, I think Baylor looks better than us and should be ahead.  I didn't mention UW, because frankly our resume is as good and slightly better for good wins, we don't have the bad losses, and we won there so unless you're a moron like Jerry Palm they are without a doubt behind us.  Also have to watch for Louisville when looking at their resume and the reward they might get for winning tonight- a Cincy win would be nice.

[MUMac]

Those three wins are ALL better than ANY win we have.  I would not be at all surprised if they move past us even if they get the crap kicked out of them tomorrow.  If they win tomorrow they are past us in a heartbeat. 

They may, but I side with Brew.  2 bad losses, and one of those a really really bad loss (240 RPI @ BC).  Their RPI is around 20, worse than MU's.  MU has one more quality win (top 100) and one more top 50 win.

Plus, the ACC is not thought of as being a strong conference.  3 from the ACC ahead of the BE's #2? I am guessing not.  

[brewcity77]

Here's the other thing to consider...the Selection Committee is notoriously lazy when it comes to seeding Sunday games. My guess is that right now, the field is pretty much set. In fact, I think the only game that will change anything today is St. Bonaventure/Xavier. Most years, it seems like what happens in these late games doesn't really have any impact on seeding. UNC is probably locked in at a 1 (guessing Midwest). FSU is probably locked in at a 3-4. And despite everyone saying MSU/tOSU is for a 1-seed, I don't buy it. Will the committee really want to make two completely different brackets based on the outcome of a game that won't be done until 5 pm Eastern? Contrary to popular belief, it really isn't as simple as just putting one of them at a 1 and the other at a 2. It'd be far easier to just keep both of them at 2-seeds and give the last 1-seed to either Kansas or Mizzou, both of whom have at least as good a case as either of the B1G schools.

Only one game really matters today, and that's St. Bonaventure/Xavier, because if the Bonnies win, they knock someone off the bubble. I have no idea who. My last bracket has Marshall as the last team in, but I could easily make a case that they're more deserving than South Florida, who I have in ahead of the Play-In games. The consensus seems to be that there are 14-15 teams vying for the last 6-7 spots, and I don't think many people will really have issue with which of those teams get in.

Here's who I would guess is on the bubble right now: Virginia, Miami, NC State, Seton Hall, South Florida, Marshall, BYU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Washington, Iona, Drexel, Oral Roberts, Northwestern.

I believe that 6 of those 14 teams will get in. I don't know which. The only ones I'd really take issue with getting in would probably be Washington and Northwestern...but who knows? No regular season Power-6 champ has ever missed the field, and as far as Northwestern...well, maybe I'd have issue with them getting in . Regardless, here's the list for today's games:

• North Carolina over FSU; don't think it matters, but it's not impossible that FSU could bump someone off the 3-line.
  
• Kentucky over Vandy; Highly doubt Vandy reaches the 3-line, but there's no way they do with a loss. And if Kentucky wins, history says they'll lose in the NCAA tournament.
  
• Xavier over St. Bonaventure; depends on what you want, but X winning could save a bid for the Big East, which could give MU another win over a team that makes the field. Or root for chaos...this doesn't matter much to us.
  
• Michigan State over Ohio State; they may not be the Badgers, but better dead than Red, and tOSU wears red.