[Cracked Sidewalks] Closing Time

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Closing Time

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Tim Blair)


Welcome back, Dr. Blackheart.  Following the Warriors' victory over the Villanova Wildcats to start the Big East season, the Good Doctor hit the keyboard to share his thoughts on the conference opener -- specifically the excruciating close.

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 At the of last season, I did a guest piece on late game free throw shooting, where it was pointed out that MU shot 56% in the last four minutes of BE play at the free throw line, despite shooting 73% for the other ninety percent of the game. MU Big East opponents shot nearly 80% at crunch time, in comparison.

While I loved MU's play at home against Villanova up till the final 4:00 mark where MU led comfortably 72-61, and with MU in the double bonus at the line, I did not (nor did any fan) like the ensuing action. (I apologize for the negative fan rant upfront, but this same story is a tough rerun to watch). Let's recap the final four minutes: 

• MU shot 9-16 on free throws, or a very familiar 56%.
• MU committed three turnovers, leading (luckily for MU) to two Nova points (this could have been up to eight points).
• Although not technically a turnover, MU attempted a trey with 24 seconds left on the shot clock that was directly turned around--eight seconds later--into a made three point shot on the other end. If MU just holds the ball and lets the shot clock expire before Nova scores, that is 32 seconds burnt. More likely, Nova fouls and MU gets the chance at points and further erodes Nova.
• MU stopped the clock for Nova with four fouls on their own, where Nova shot 7 for 8 at the charity stripe, or 87.5%. Again, this opponent FT% sounds very familiar to last season.
• So, MU gave Nova back eight possessions on turnovers, fouls and an ill-advised shot (not even counting the missed MU free throws). Nova was able to score 12 points off these. Two key MU rebounders also fouled out during this time.
• Further, between the missed Mayo three that was turned around and the Nova made free throws, Nova was able to score 10 points in a total of 8 seconds.
• MU's full court, all-out pressure defense did cause five Nova turnovers. However, MU did not stop any of the four Nova possessions where they attempted field goals (made first shot or put backs on offensive rebounds--as our rebounders had fouled out), and MU stopped the clock with four fouls of their own as they scrambled. (Note: Jay Wright only had two timeouts to use in the final 4:00).
• While the pressure mistakes by underclassmen are very understandable, our senior leaders committed three fouls, had two turnovers and went 1-2 on free throws. Who is this year's JFB? Is it Jae Crowder like against Washington? Is it Todd Mayo?
• From the 4:00 minute mark to 1:37, MU scored one point. Buzz used a 30 second time out at 1:37 to settle the troops, finally. After that point, Nova outscored MU only 9-8, with that last second meaningless tip-in giving Nova the advantage. Still, MU was 8-12 on FT's and had two fouls after that time out, but no had turnovers.

Great win. Great game preparation and strategy. Great bounce back. A Big East win is always prized and should always be cherished. However, this end of game approach continues to need focus. The opponent here is the time clock, whether playing the talent level of a Norfolk State or a Big East talent of Villanova. Frankly, this is a "coachable moment" that should be practiced time and again.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/01/closing-time.html

[CAGASS24]

Excellent assessment, my only addition is how exactly do you practice, or emphasize as you suggest, the pressure felt to make a free throw at those moments...there's no dress rehearsal for that stage.  Do you know the numbers for win-loss in games where say there's up to a 3 possession win margin and x-number of free throws attempted? I'd conjecture we are considerably over 500.

Marquette for life4

[nycwarrior]

Great post. Well balanced, fair and persuasive. We could be a lot better closing out games. It'll be the difference between a very average season and the one we've all been hoping for

[denverMU]

Great analysis, I don't wish to get into the practice free throw/don't practice free throw argument, my question is how do we get away from these stupid turnovers and continue to score when we have a nice lead?

[real chili 83]

This team has tons of potential.  The seniors need to lead the way....show DG, Vander, Todd how to close out games.

Doc, this was a great post.  

I've said it before, if this team hits on all cylinders, watch out.

Remember, we beat the citrus twice last year.  Saw the Providence game....Gtown can be had. 

I have to admit, Gtown won the Providence game because they did exactly what Doc points out has been our Achilles in late game situations.

Go Warriors!!!!!!

[Big Papi]

Interesting.  How did we do against Wisconsin on the road with a lead late in the game?  I think we won and made some clutch free throws in the end and I don't think we made a turnover in the last 4 minutes.  Sometimes as fans, I think we tend to over analyze everything to death.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Excellent assessment, my only addition is how exactly do you practice, or emphasize as you suggest, the pressure felt to make a free throw at those moments...there's no dress rehearsal for that stage.  Do you know the numbers for win-loss in games where say there's up to a 3 possession win margin and x-number of free throws attempted? I'd conjecture we are considerably over 500.

Marquette for life4

Thanks for your comments.  I will try to answer your question if I got it all right.

• MU is 12-13 in three possession games or less over the past two seasons
• MU is 4-6 in these games where they shot < 20 FT's,  MU is 8-7 in games where they shot 20 or more FT's.  MU is 5-5 games where they shot 25 or more

[Dr. Blackheart]

Interesting.  How did we do against Wisconsin on the road with a lead late in the game?  I think we won and made some clutch free throws in the end and I don't think we made a turnover in the last 4 minutes.  Sometimes as fans, I think we tend to over analyze everything to death.

MU indeed had no turnovers and shot 4-4 on free throws in the last four minutes against Bucky.  MU was also 2-6 on FG's under 4:00.  MU had a seven point lead going into the under 4:00 mark and held serve at the end.  Well done and a great defensive game.

In terms of your second comment about overanalyzing.  My point is this has been a trend--MU has set BE records in close games.  At LSU, we led with 4:00 to go and let it slip...where DJO missed a front-end of a 1-1 at a critical time.  Against NSU Round 2, DJO also missed a front-end.  More so, as was mentioned here, the piece was more about the approach vs. a debate about just free throws.  In close games against good teams, you are going to win some and lose some--that is a fair statement.  But, yesterday's ending was sloppy well beyond the free throw shooting.  Very fixable if the focus is there.

Thanks for everyone's comments. 

[CAGASS24]

Thanks for answering, that speaks for itself; positive visualizations I guess.  Onward and upward!!

[jsglow]

Great analysis Doc.  The final 4 minutes was very frustrating to watch.  I'll tolerate a few missed free throws but the mental mistakes were tough to watch.

One games sticks out for me as the worst example in the Buzz era.  You all remember the 'perfect storm' at Louisville last year?  If we had done ONE single thing correctly in the last 7-8 minutes we would have won that critical game.  Let's improve on that, okay?

[Dawson Rental]

Closing Time

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Tim Blair)






/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=320010269]final four minutes[/url]: 

• MU shot 9-16 on free throws, or a very familiar 56%.
• MU committed three turnovers, leading (luckily for MU) to two Nova points (this could have been up to eight points).
• Although not technically a turnover, MU attempted a trey with 24 seconds left on the shot clock that was directly turned around--eight seconds later--into a made three point shot on the other end. If MU just holds the ball and lets the shot clock expire before Nova scores, that is 32 seconds burnt. More likely, Nova fouls and MU gets the chance at points and further erodes Nova.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/01/closing-time.html

It's clear to me that the three point attempt was made when it was so that Villanova wouldn't have the opportunity to foul MU and further expose their late game free throw shooting woes.[/list]

[Lennys Tap]

Rarely do I see a lengthy analysis that completely and accurately describes what I've just seen. Kudos to the good doctor!

[mug644]

I felt like the end of each half was sloppy for MU, and wondered whether we were fatigued, both physically and mentally. Without Otule, playing defense is more challenging, and while we dropped down to double Yarou effectively, that comes with a toll. Playing a shorter bench (and I think it was the shortest rotation of the season), especially with some key guys in foul trouble, while still pushing the ball offensively can be draining.

Anyone else think that mental lapses, turnovers and short free throws might've been a result of being tired?