Pomeroy: MU 3rd in BE, 10th & closing in on 7th nationally, but 17% chance Sat

[bamamarquettefan]

Marquette slips back into the Top 10 in www.kenpom.com after tonight's game.  MU is actually closer to 7th place Duke than to 11th place Alabama after Duke getting destroyed by Ohio State with Dwyane Wade in attendance and Alabama stuggling past VCU at home:

7. Duke .9274
8. Missouri .9246
9. Florida .9211
10. Marquette .9184
11. Alabama .9093

Also projected to be a solid 3rd place in the Big East:
Syracuse 14-4
Louisville 13-5
Marquette 13-5
Connecticut 11-7

And with all that, still a 57-66 underdog against #3 Wisconsin with only a 17% chance of winning.

[tower912]

That Saturday prediction looks about right, sadly.   Hopefully, UNC wins big enough to break becky's will. 

[wojosdojo]

I think  if unc wins we have no chance but if UW wins we win Saturday, or at least have a much better shot.

[NersEllenson]

Why is our fan base so non-confident in our ability to beat UW??  I do not feel BYU is anywhere near the team MU is - and other than BYU - UW has played sub 300 RPI schools.  What has BYU been in basketball prior to Jimmer-mania last year??  UW's numbers have been built against crap opponents.  I feel pretty confident UW loses by about 10-15 to UNC tonight, and I believe MU beats UW Saturday.

MU will turn UW over, score in transition, and is deep enough to defend UW's grinding/long time of possession offense for 40 minutes.  Yes, UW shoots it well from the 3, but I'm not sold they will fare as well against ultra athletic, long teams like MU/UNC as they have Wofford, and other sub 300 teams.  Tonight should be revealing one way or another...

[Hards Alumni]

Why is our fan base so non-confident in our ability to beat UW??  I do not feel BYU is anywhere near the team MU is - and other than BYU - UW has played sub 300 RPI schools.  What has BYU been in basketball prior to Jimmer-mania last year??  UW's numbers have been built against crap opponents.  I feel pretty confident UW loses by about 10-15 to UNC tonight, and I believe MU beats UW Saturday.

MU will turn UW over, score in transition, and is deep enough to defend UW's grinding/long time of possession offense for 40 minutes.  Yes, UW shoots it well from the 3, but I'm not sold they will fare as well against ultra athletic, long teams like MU/UNC as they have Wofford, and other sub 300 teams.  Tonight should be revealing one way or another...

I completely agree.  I really don't see what people see in UW's team aside from Jordan Taylor.  I know its the Kohl Hole, but we've been them there before.

I also realize that Bo is a good game coach and will try to slow it down... but aside from him throwing a zone at us, I really don't see them being able to stop us.

[GGGG]

We are playing a top 10 team...on the road...at a place where we haven't had much success...against a team that generally plays us well.

[Hards Alumni]

We are playing a top 10 in November team...on the road...at a place where we haven't had much success...against a team that generally plays us well.

[GGGG]

Yeah, and we are a top 20 team *in November* too.  Neither team has faced a noteworthy test at this point.

[brewcity77]

No, they haven't played anyone, but it's about what they do well. They slow it down, they don't turn the ball over, they don't give up offensive boards, and they shoot ridiculously well from three. In addition, the ball used at the Kohl isn't used at any other arena in the country, which makes it an even tougher place to play as a visitor.

We are diametric opposites, and it's a case of who does what they want better. At home, that favors them.

[mugrad2006]

In addition, the ball used at the Kohl isn't used at any other arena in the country, which makes it an even tougher place to play as a visitor.

Is this really true?  What ball do they use?

[Hards Alumni]

Is this really true?  What ball do they use?

thanks for making my day.

[mugrad2006]

thanks for making my day.

I figured he was joking and almost didn't ask, but everything else in his comment was real, so I went with it.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I figured he was joking and almost didn't ask, but everything else in his comment was real, so I went with it.

He wasn't joking:

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/04/is-home-court-advantage-really-about-the-ball/

"the only way you'll run into the Sterling ball is if you have to play Wisconsin at Wisconsin."

[NersEllenson]

I understand that UW does things well that MU perhaps struggles with such as 3 point defense.  I also understand that UW historically does not turn the ball over.  I also understand that UW at home is very difficult to beat, and that Bo Ryan is a great coach.

However, I also feel this is MU's deepest and quite possibly most talented team under Buzz, and that UW is fairly young outside of Jordan Taylor, and not quite as solid at their big positions as they traditionally are.  I believe our overall talent disparity (more of it), will prevail.

Having said all of that, yes, UW sure is a tough out at the Kohl...

[mugrad2006]

He wasn't joking:

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/04/is-home-court-advantage-really-about-the-ball/

"the only way you'll run into the Sterling ball is if you have to play Wisconsin at Wisconsin."

Sweet redemption!

[bilsu]

Why is our fan base so non-confident in our ability to beat UW??  I do not feel BYU is anywhere near the team MU is - and other than BYU - UW has played sub 300 RPI schools.  What has BYU been in basketball prior to Jimmer-mania last year??  UW's numbers have been built against crap opponents.  I feel pretty confident UW loses by about 10-15 to UNC tonight, and I believe MU beats UW Saturday.

MU will turn UW over, score in transition, and is deep enough to defend UW's grinding/long time of possession offense for 40 minutes.  Yes, UW shoots it well from the 3, but I'm not sold they will fare as well against ultra athletic, long teams like MU/UNC as they have Wofford, and other sub 300 teams.  Tonight should be revealing one way or another...

BYU like MU has won 20 games 6th straight seasons. UW has won 20 games 5 straight seasosn. In that time BYU has more wins then either MU or WI. Also BYU has more all-time wins than MU.  As far as this year UW played BYU on a neutral court, while we are playing UW at the Kohl Center and that is a hugh difference.

[bilsu]

Before start of season

BYU 1640 wins with a .620 winning percentage
MU 1467 wins with a .618 winning percentage

[MuMark]

"MU will turn UW over, score in transition"

UW rarely turns it over and doesn't allow teams to score in transition. We will see tonight if NC can speed them up....I have my doubts.

There was an article written somehwere a few days ago about the home team being able to choose the ball in college hoops and they mentioned UW I think as a school that chooses to use a different type of ball.

Don't recall the details or what site had the article.

[MUDPT]

If you run the 4 factor numbers.  UW has the overall edge in categories, but MU's advantages are huge.  

1. MU doesn't turn it over, UW doesn't force any

2. UW doesn't get to the foul line, Marquette doesn't allow teams on the foul line

3. The only big advantage UW is on the offensive boards.

Keys:
1. Limit turnovers, don't foul, get on the defensive glass

[dearest friend]

Sweet redemption!

MU Athletics just tweeted that game prep includes practicing with the Sterling brand ball. http://twitpic.com/7m691u

[PGsHeroes32]

Before start of season

BYU 1640 wins with a .620 winning percentage
MU 1467 wins with a .618 winning percentage

Big East vs Mountain West. Discussion over.

[StillAWarrior]

He wasn't joking:

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/04/is-home-court-advantage-really-about-the-ball/

"the only way you'll run into the Sterling ball is if you have to play Wisconsin at Wisconsin."

That was interesting.  I had no idea.

[tower912]

Some stat monger needs to pop up with the winning % of bucky at the Kohl under Bo.   Then they need to pop up with the overall home winning % for top 10 teams historically.  I've said before and I will say again, I think we win this game on a neutral floor or at home.   IMO, the Kohl is a 15 pt head start every time, and with that head start, our style of play matched up against theirs IN THEIR BUILDING is simply a bad match.  Hopefully, I am wrong.   

[Dawson Rental]

Marquette slips back into the Top 10 in www.kenpom.com after tonight's game.  MU is actually closer to 7th place Duke than to 11th place Alabama after Duke getting destroyed by Ohio State with Dwyane Wade in attendance and Alabama stuggling past VCU at home:

7. Duke .9274
8. Missouri .9246
9. Florida .9211
10. Marquette .9184
11. Alabama .9093

Also projected to be a solid 3rd place in the Big East:
Syracuse 14-4
Louisville 13-5
Marquette 13-5
Connecticut 11-7

And with all that, still a 57-66 underdog against #3 Wisconsin with only a 17% chance of winning.

And yet Henry Sugar voted that he was 30% confident that Marquette would win this game.  Oh well, just another victim of the availability heuristic, I guess!   

[Dr. Blackheart]

Some stat monger needs to pop up with the winning % of bucky at the Kohl under Bo.   Then they need to pop up with the overall home winning % for top 10 teams historically.  I've said before and I will say again, I think we win this game on a neutral floor or at home.   IMO, the Kohl is a 15 pt head start every time, and with that head start, our style of play matched up against theirs IN THEIR BUILDING is simply a bad match.  Hopefully, I am wrong.   

Answer to question #1 is 93.3% for Bo at the Hole.  Don't know #2

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=28180.msg325433#msg325433