Confidence Level MU will beat UW

[cheebs09]

I agree with that Ners, but UW functions as a whole rather than individual parts (not calling our guys selfish or anything, but they are a "the sum is greater than the parts" type of team). They are a bad matchup for us, but we are also a bad matchup for them. I watched one of their games and it seemed like they tried to push it a little bit and got sloppy, so maybe we can rope them into trying to run with us. However, I think their focus will be to slow the game down much more than that non-con game.

[MuMark]

UW has 3 speeds....slow, slower, and stand still.

http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjTempo

[jtrash37]

20%

+1

Kohl Hole

[Hoopaloop]

30% only because the Kohl is such a home court advantage.  Haven't won there since Crean's last year, 61-58.  It will be a similar score this year.

Wisconsin is Wisconsin.  Deadly good at home and very good everywhere else.  They will play us straight up man to man, but it's not like we will just blow by them like they are standing still.  They will milk the clock, make it a low scoring game which means each possession is critical.  If the game is close at the end, which it likely will be, those possessions can make teams tense up.  This will be a good test and our senior leadership will be key to victory. 

[MUMac]

30% only because the Kohl is such a home court advantage.  Haven't won there since Crean's last year, 61-58.  It will be a similar score this year.  

Actually, that game was Buzz' first year and was played in Milwaukee.  Buzz is 1-2 vs UW (0-1 at the KC).  Crean's last year we beat UW at Madison 81-76.

So, we have a 1 game losing steak in Madison.

[MuMark]

They are absolutely shooting the lights out from 3 so far this year.

right around 50%.......

[Skatastrophy]

They are absolutely shooting the lights out from 3 so far this year.

right around 50%.......

It's high-time for them to cool off a bit then.  They aren't Cornell in the NCAA tourney two years ago, after all

[MUFC9295]

UW has 3 speeds....slow, slower, and stand still.

http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjTempo

We seemed to have Fast, very fast and out of breath judging by our last outing.

[WarhawkWarrior]

I think Bo invented the "zone" offense.

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

I was reading this ESPN link for the Maymon analysis, but check out the UW blurb (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/39889/numbers-to-know-vol-pulls-a-blake-griffin):

"Wisconsin's defense continues to stifle anyone it comes across. The Badgers held UMKC to 20.8 percent from the field in a 77-31 blowout. Through four games, all against D-I opponents, Wisconsin is holding foes to 34.0 ppg and a 26.2 FG pct. That's 10.0 fewer than any other team is allowing thus far. Consider that Wisconsin basketball is allowing more than 10 points fewer per game than Wisconsin football is scoring (44.8).

Though it's far too early to rationally project, it's worth noting that Wisconsin is on pace for the second best scoring defense in D-I history behind only Oklahoma State (32.5 in 1948). Over the past 45 years, only five teams have held opponents below 50.0 ppg over an entire season."

[marqfan22]

Who cares about UW? As a student who was from hundreds of miles from Milwaukee, I could care less. I would trade a win over Louisville every time.

[Dawson Rental]

Wow, a perfect bell curve with 50 percent in the middle

Not exactly perfect.  In a great example of unconscious bias, Ners neglected to provide 0% as a choice, although he did provide 100% as a choice.

[Dawson Rental]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic

I get the reference and the obvious applicability to this poll.  Which presents the question, how did you, a voter aware of this potential source of bias, vote?

[denverMU]

WI has played 4 D-1 teams and held them to 34 ppg, so F**king what?  Those D-1 teams are a collective 5-10 and are 322, 325, 327, and 343 in the country in points scored.  WOW next we will hear they can make lay-ups.

[Henry Sugar]

I get the reference and the obvious applicability to this poll.  Which presents the question, how did you, a voter aware of this potential source of bias, vote?

30% (which I voted after Ole Miss and before Norfolk State #2)

Ambiguous calls go to the home team.

[GGGG]

WI has played 4 D-1 teams and held them to 34 ppg, so F**king what?  Those D-1 teams are a collective 5-10 and are 322, 325, 327, and 343 in the country in points scored.  WOW next we will hear they can make lay-ups.

Exactly.  Let's see how they do against North Carolina this week.

[4everwarriors]

Exactly.  Let's see how they do against North Carolina this week.

UNC is their trap game.

[brewcity77]

Exactly.  Let's see how they do against North Carolina this week.

I can't see Bucky winning at the Dean Dome, but it would be damn sweet to watch them knock off #1 UNC only to lose to Marquette at home a few days later.

[Stronghold]

We play Jacksonville Monday and then have all week to prepare for Madison.  Meanwhile they play @UNC Wednesday and then only get a couple days to prepare for us.  Should be a little advantageous for us.

[brewcity77]

We play Jacksonville Monday and then have all week to prepare for Madison.  Meanwhile they play @UNC Wednesday and then only get a couple days to prepare for us.  Should be a little advantageous for us.

Should be. But doesn't that mean we still have to overcome the assumed 10-point deficit we'll start with because it's at the Kohl (instead of the usual 15)?

[bilsu]

I can't see Bucky winning at the Dean Dome, but it would be damn sweet to watch them knock off #1 UNC only to lose to Marquette at home a few days later.

I wonder if Bo is actually coaching his team in early season with an eye on the North Carolina game. His teams have always done well shooting the three point shot, but this year the offense appears to be even more relying on the three.  Last year Buzz's game plan was to take the ball inside to North Carolina and we got crushed. The way UW is playing, I suspect they plan on attacking North Carolina from the three. They cannot beat UNC by going inside and would likely get crushed just like like MU did, but if they can hit their threes they eliminate UNC's inside defensive advantage and could actually beat them. I think they are using their bunny schedule to practice their North Carolina game plan.

[bilsu]

We play Jacksonville Monday and then have all week to prepare for Madison.  Meanwhile they play @UNC Wednesday and then only get a couple days to prepare for us.  Should be a little advantageous for us.

Wisconsin is a system program, so I do not think it matters so much to them how much time they have to prepare for MU. They are not going to change their defense or change their offense, because they are playing MU. Bo is all about fundamentals. Elimate turnovers, elimate fouls, balance the floor offensively and defensively, get open threes and make free throws. His success in teaching his team this is why it does not matter if he has less athletic players. The only time he needs to change his game plan is if his team gets down several points late in a game.

[brewcity77]

I wonder if Bo is actually coaching his team in early season with an eye on the North Carolina game. His teams have always done well shooting the three point shot, but this year the offense appears to be even more relying on the three.  Last year Buzz's game plan was to take the ball inside to North Carolina and we got crushed. The way UW is playing, I suspect they plan on attacking North Carolina from the three. They cannot beat UNC by going inside and would likely get crushed just like like MU did, but if they can hit their threes they eliminate UNC's inside defensive advantage and could actually beat them. I think they are using their bunny schedule to practice their North Carolina game plan.

Interesting philosophy, and if true, one that would work well against us, too. I think that without Leuer and Nankivil, UW would struggle to get much going inside against Marquette. Otule is a good defender and great shot-blocker, Crowder has been solid so far this year, and I just can't see Berggren or Brusewicz getting much against us inside. But outside, as we have been in years past, we're vulnerable. Dictate the pace of the game, hit 40% from three, and forgo offensive boards in favor of dropping three to stop our transition game and I imagine that Bucky would like their chances, and frankly, would barely have to change a thing from what they do against UNC.

[JD]

For some reason I was thinking Washington.  Whoops, anyway i voted 80%.

Feels good to no longer be banned.  Missed you guys.

[GGGG]

Wisconsin is a system program, so I do not think it matters so much to them how much time they have to prepare for MU. They are not going to change their defense or change their offense, because they are playing MU. Bo is all about fundamentals. Elimate turnovers, elimate fouls, balance the floor offensively and defensively, get open threes and make free throws. His success in teaching his team this is why it does not matter if he has less athletic players. The only time he needs to change his game plan is if his team gets down several points late in a game.

This is exactly right.  He has developed a system that allows him to beat teams that are more athletic than they are.  He did the same thing at UW-Platteville where he almost always won national championships with teams that didn't look quite right during warm-ups.

That being said, one of the trends that UW has undergone in recent years is its dependence on the outside shot.  Part of what the swing calls for is a guard cutting to the block and posting up.  That doesn't happen as much as it used to.  It's what made Alando Tucker such a weapon.

IMO what Buzz needs to do is not extend his defense out so much because all that does is enhance the spacing that Bo wants.  Back off a bit and see what Wisconsin is able to do.