SEC Accepts A&M...but with a condition

[bilsu]

K

Totally random thought posted here for the 1,000th time that makes me want to barf every time I see it. In no way is that appealing to me or any television network.

Assuming we end up in a basketball only conference, I would hope it is limited to 10 teams. That way you play everyone twice in a home and home schedule.

[Aughnanure]

Assuming we end up in a basketball only conference, I would hope it is limited to 10 teams. That way you play everyone twice in a home and home schedule.

This. However, I think its more important to limit the teams in order to not dilute the league, since staying relevant (and respected) will be extremely important for whichever league Marquette is in next (keeping Big East name will also be crucial). Assuming worst-case scenario where Texas and Notre Dame either don't go independent or don't need another league to keep their other sports in. And no, Villanova isn't going D1 now -  its too late, wouldn't even start playing until 2014 at the earliest...they may have seen something like this coming and held off on spending a ton of money when they knew they could get quickly left out.

[Aughnanure]

Rumors surfacing that if UT says no to PAC-12 (theyd have to give up/restructure their tv network), OU and OSU will go and that Kansas and Kansas St would be strongly considered. Get a premier program in both basketball and football and the State schools match the PAC - Arizona St, Wash St. Oregon St. Plus the PAC likes its "travel partner" set up.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2011/09/07/pac-12-expansion-the-case-for-the-oklahoma-schools/

Pac-12 expansion: The case for the Oklahoma schools

"...

Or the Big 12 could shatter in days with the Longhorns declaring football independence.

I don't how it will end, but of this I am as close to certain as you can be (at least on matters with so many potential pitfalls):

If the Oklahoma schools officially apply for membership to the Pac-12 ... and there are many steps between here and there, let's not forget ... then they'll be admitted into the conference regardless of what Texas does.

In other words: The Pac-12 is willing to become the Pac-14 without knowing when it would become the Pac-16 — or knowing the ID of the 15th and 16th teams.

And here's why:

*** Yes, the dynamics at the presidential level have changed.

In the spring of 2010, the Pac-10 CEOs were hungry for growth — they wanted to get bigger, they wanted to get richer, they wanted to catch up, and overtake, their BCS peers.

In the fall of 2011, that mission has been accomplished and the Pac-12 CEOs have very little appetite for growth. They are fat with the richest TV contract in college sports history and have their own national and regional network, which will eventually a cash cows.

However, the CEOs will eat if they must.

*** Scott's view, best I can tell from talking to sources, is that the moment one of the 12-team leagues goes to 13, the era of the super-conference is upon us because there's no way that league is stopping at 13 — it will expand to 14 and likely 16.

The Pac-12 won't be the first to 13. No chance of that.

But if the SEC goes to 13 — and it will if/when the legal issues are resolved — then the Pac-12 will take the approach that the SEC is headed to 16 and the Big Ten will expand to at least 14 (and possibly 16) when its current TV deal is up in a few years.

And looking at that landscape ... with the SEC headed to 16 and the Big Ten to 14 or more ... the Pac-12 CEOs would be willing to expand again.

*** They don't want to be the Pac-14 right now, but they'd accept the Oklahoma schools and become the Pac-14 in order to protect the conference down the road — to give it the size and power to compete with the expanded SEC and Big Ten.

If the CEOs were to pass on OU and OSU now — especially if they were to pass on a football brand as powerful and lucrative as Oklahoma's — there's no guarantee they could get them later.

At least, that's my sense of how the Pac-12′s power brokers are approaching the current situation.

*** And if Oklahoma and OSU were to climb aboard in the next few days or weeks, then Scott would take the time to make sure Texas is off the table ... and then he'd move on.

How long he'd wait for Texas to decide its future, I have no idea. But eventually the Pac-14 would examine other options for its 15th and 16th teams. (The league has probably done some of that legwork already.)

Without question, Kansas and Kansas State would be given serious consideration — and those schools would know they were receiving serious consideration, thus delaying a possible move to the Big East.

Guessing along with Scott is a risky, risky venture, but I think he thinks the Kansas basketball brand is strong enough to offset the weak football brand ... and strong enough to haul KSU along with it."

[Litehouse]

I understand why everyone wanted to get to 12 for the football championship game, but I don't see the point of expanding further just to keep up with the other conferences.  It's just more mouths to feed and split the money more ways.  Each school would have to bring in more than they would take away, and it seems like diminishing returns at some point.

[GGGG]

Litehouse, I completely agree with you.  I don't know why people are under the assumption that if one conference goes to 16, then they must all go to 16.  That's silly.  The B10 for instance will go larger if it increases "per school revenue," but if not, what's the point?

[GGGG]

Or...maybe I am wrong.

http://northwestern.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=57&tid=162506546&mid=162506546&sid=901&style=2

[Ari Gold]

In no way would a 14 or 16 (or even 20) team football conference survive long term. The last one of those lasted 2 years. Not enough $ to feed every mouth. Some of the lower end Pac-12 schools will feel squeezed out. Besides didn't Colorado jump from the big 12 to get away from Texas?
---
The idea of a Jesuit only conference is sickening. You can't even justify half those schools. its MU, Georgetown, Gonzaga and a pile of crap. Fairfield and Fordham... come on

[GGGG]

The difference between any new expansion to 16 and the WAC expansion is that the WAC expanded from 10 to 16 all at once, and took a bunch of secondary programs in overlapping markets (UNLV, San Jose State, Tulsa, SMU, Rice and TCU)  If the Pac 16 is created, it would do so with state-wide programs with larger followings.

But I think you are right Ari.  In 15-20 years will it still be worth it?  Would a Pac-16 break back down into its eastern and western portions?  (Like the WAC did when the Mountain West schools defected?)

[Aughnanure]

I think everyone is looking at this wrong. Yes there technically would be only 4 or 5 conferences....BUT there would 8-10 Divisions. Teams mostly will keep to a round robin schedule with the teams most regional to them. In a way, this could be a return to the 8-10 team conferences. The Conference championship games will then work like playoff games.

They will also continue to make more money, even more per school b/c sporting events are the LAST event that people actually will watch live. The advertising opportunity will become unlike anything else available on television, and thus more valued.

[Aughnanure]

Or...maybe I am wrong.

http://northwestern.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=57&tid=162506546&mid=162506546&sid=901&style=2

or this?

http://twitter.com/#!/FootballBYU/status/111821850065121280

@BYUFootball: BYU will accept Big 12 offer pending OU signs intent to stay contract... Could be announced as early as Saturday

[Aughnanure]

Or...maybe I am wrong.

http://northwestern.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=57&tid=162506546&mid=162506546&sid=901&style=2

Jesus F'ing Christ, ths is getting ridiculous. Can that conference handle all that ego? Nebraska would be pissed.

Funny tweet I saw yesterday that sums up this soap opera:

@PeterBurnsRadio: On the next episode of the Real Housewives of the Big 12....Baylor confronts A&M, and Kansas reveals a deep dark secret

[Dawson Rental]

Worst Case for Marquette:

Big East falls apart with football and basketball spilting.
Although, Texas goes independent.

New ten or twelve team conference with
Texas, Notre Dame who remain independent in football.
Georgetown and Villanova who play in FCS still.
Seton Hall, St. Johns, DePaul, Marquette, and Providence.
Then we would have to add a couple other basketball-only schools such as Butler, Richmond, BYU (independent), Drake, Dayton, Davidson

This would basically be the Horrizon league but better
Sure the money from football would be there, but i believe the conference could survive and be one of the top conferences in the country for basketball. Also, it allows the rest of the sports a competitive conference. I still would take this option over CUSA any day.

I'm sorry, but I'm not sure who in the Horizon League you equate with Texas and Notre Dame, let alone Georgetown, Nova, and MU, especially if the league takes in Butler.

[Dawson Rental]

it is like the Horizon league since they dont have D1 football.

That makes it as much like the Horizon League as a high school conference with only girl's schools.

[mu03eng]

I think everyone is looking at this wrong. Yes there technically would be only 4 or 5 conferences....BUT there would 8-10 Divisions. Teams mostly will keep to a round robin schedule with the teams most regional to them. In a way, this could be a return to the 8-10 team conferences. The Conference championship games will then work like playoff games.

They will also continue to make more money, even more per school b/c sporting events are the LAST event that people actually will watch live. The advertising opportunity will become unlike anything else available on television, and thus more valued.

I think this is spot on, but what gets interesting, is with this much power located in a relatively few conference presidents, are the days of the NCAA numbered?  I think ultimately, in the near future you would have the PAC-16, the Big-14(B10), ACC, SEC, and Big East as MAJOR power conferences and the small conferences remaining.  There would be roughly 70 teams in those conferences with the majority of the football revenue, all that before we even discuss basketball.  What would be the purpose of the NCAA anymore?  Why would the conferences care about it as an organizational entity?  Assuming they could retain their anti-trust exemption why not create a new, lower cost bureaucracy they could control better?

This would also potentially lead to a playoff scenario as the conference championships are the first round with bowl games as the next two rounds of games.

Lastly, the dis concerning thing about this scenario is the Big East is the shakiest of the conferences in that scenario.  Is there enough scraps of B12, CUSA, and other schools for the BEast to replace departing ND and give the ACC and SEC enough to feast on without raiding the big east.

[MUBurrow]

random thought but I would love to see a Jesuit conference

Marquette
Boston College
Georgetown
Holy Cross
Creighton
Fairfeild
Fordham
Gonzaga
Loyola Marymont
St. Joseph's
St. Louis University
Xavier

I know it would never happen but it would be cool and pretty much all but Boston College are basketball only schools (I think not 100% sure).

Here's your link if you're jonesing for shitty, religiously-affiliated basketball:

http://byutv.org/

[GGGG]

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news;_ylt=Ajg3hJjWKQuiuCP9EASGKuvevbYF?slug=jn-king_baylor_plan_b_big_east_090811

Baylor "confident" they will get BE invite if B12 blows up.

[MUMac]

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news;_ylt=Ajg3hJjWKQuiuCP9EASGKuvevbYF?slug=jn-king_baylor_plan_b_big_east_090811

Baylor "confident" they will get BE invite if B12 blows up.

First TCU and next Baylor?  Neither of those schools do anything for me - football or basketball.  But it is obvious the direction the BE is headed.  Known as a basketball league, football is the definite driver.  Another reason why I hate the BCS.

[Aughnanure]

First TCU and next Baylor?  Neither of those schools do anything for me - football or basketball.  But it is obvious the direction the BE is headed.  Known as a basketball league, football is the definite driver.  Another reason why I hate the BCS.

Don't expect it to be around as is much longer. ACC and Big East are eyeing each other for survival, knowing they both will likely lose a few teams. Look for Syracuse, WV, UCONN, Rutgers, Pittsburgh & Louisville to jump to the ACC or land somewhere else.

UCF, USF, Cincinnati and potentially Louisville could be left to find out what that 5th conference will look like.

[muhs03]

Don't expect it to be around as is much longer. ACC and Big East are eyeing each other for survival, knowing they both will likely lose a few teams. Look for Syracuse, WV, UCONN, Rutgers, Pittsburgh & Louisville to jump to the ACC or land somewhere else.

UCF, USF, Cincinnati and potentially Louisville could be left to find out what that 5th conference will look like.

Yeah....the ACC is the only stable conference in which BE teams could add value since their pay-out is only around $13M per school.

[muhs03]

I understand why everyone wanted to get to 12 for the football championship game, but I don't see the point of expanding further just to keep up with the other conferences.  It's just more mouths to feed and split the money more ways.  Each school would have to bring in more than they would take away, and it seems like diminishing returns at some point.

The law of diminishing returns is already occurring in bball within the BE. One NCAA unit, which was valued last year at $239,664, was split 16 ways (or $14,979). Throw in TCU and a unit next year will be worth $14,097 per school (and Im not counting on TCU contributing to BE units for awhile...think USF).

UConn's men's bball program took in $2.275M this spring - a combination of their credits pay-out and bonuses that the BE paid out for their Final Four appearance and NC.

In football, BCS bowl games were worth $21.2M per school last year. The hugely popular Chick-fil-A Bowl, which pits the #2 ACC vs. #5 SEC school pays each team roughly $750k more than what UConn was paid out for winning the NCAA tournament.

Of course, if a school doesnt have a strong traveling fanbase, many low to mid-tier bowl games will lose schools money and even UConn lost money going to the Fiesta Bowl. A school like Rutgers, which didnt go to a bowl, received a nice check because the pay-outs are divided equally and they didnt have a ticket liability.


http://www.theday.com/article/20110403/NWS01/304039856/-1/NWS

[GGGG]

And the reason that football drives this, isn't because of the BCS...but because college football is simply more popular than college basketball...and therefore the more valuable football properties a conference has, the bigger the television contract.

[Aughnanure]

And the reason that football drives this, isn't because of the BCS...but because college football is simply more popular than college basketball...and therefore the more valuable football properties a conference has, the bigger the television contract.

This is true, but one thing I think is missed in all this is HOW MUCH football is overvalued in comparison. While basketball is not as important, people are acting like it is a deadweight in comparison to football in this realignment. I do not believe that statistics back that up and TV execs are WAAAYY undervaluing basketball in the deals, and I've seen article over the past year that make that argument.

1st, basketball has significantly more games and guess what, in states like Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Indiana -  everyone one of those games are watched across the state. Just because it isn't Saturday, doesn't mean eyeballs are on it, and in fact they might be more intuned to the commercials on a Monday night than on a Saturday drinking with their friends.

This graph sums up that basketball can pull its own weight in comparison to football. Wiscy bball makes more than GTech football. Duke baball makes more than Mizzou, NC State, ASU, Arizona, TTech, Oregon and Illinois football. Marquette makes more than Pitt and Miss St. football.

http://businessofcollegesports.com/2011/06/20/which-football-and-basketball-programs-produce-the-largest-profits/

Football may be driving it, but basketball should not be ignored.

[muhs03]

This is true, but one thing I think is missed in all this is HOW MUCH football is overvalued in comparison. While basketball is not as important, people are acting like it is a deadweight in comparison to football in this realignment. I do not believe that statistics back that up and TV execs are WAAAYY undervaluing basketball in the deals, and I've seen article over the past year that make that argument.

1st, basketball has significantly more games and guess what, in states like Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Indiana -  everyone one of those games are watched across the state. Just because it isn't Saturday, doesn't mean eyeballs are on it, and in fact they might be more intuned to the commercials on a Monday night than on a Saturday drinking with their friends.

This graph sums up that basketball can pull its own weight in comparison to football. Wiscy bball makes more than GTech football. Duke baball makes more than Mizzou, NC State, ASU, Arizona, TTech, Oregon and Illinois football. Marquette makes more than Pitt and Miss St. football.

http://businessofcollegesports.com/2011/06/20/which-football-and-basketball-programs-produce-the-largest-profits/

Football may be driving it, but basketball should not be ignored.

This article has legs; Ive seen it a million times, I think. The only interesting thing is the disclaimer:
The data in these charts is from reports filed by each school with the U.S. Department of Education. As always when I post U.S. Department of Education data, I must warn you that although there are guidelines for how to report revenue and expenses, there is some wiggle room in terms of how to attribute facilities costs and broadcasting revenue. These are the only numbers available for every school, however, because private schools are not subject to public records requests but do have to file their data with the U.S. Department of Education.

Its an apples to oranges comparison. MAYBE you can compare public universities located in the same state because those schools likely use the same accounting guidelines. Once you compare schools across state lines, across conference affiliations and especially public vs. private, the numbers are virtually meaningless.

[Aughnanure]

This article has legs; Ive seen it a million times, I think. The only interesting thing is the disclaimer:
The data in these charts is from reports filed by each school with the U.S. Department of Education. As always when I post U.S. Department of Education data, I must warn you that although there are guidelines for how to report revenue and expenses, there is some wiggle room in terms of how to attribute facilities costs and broadcasting revenue. These are the only numbers available for every school, however, because private schools are not subject to public records requests but do have to file their data with the U.S. Department of Education.

Its an apples to oranges comparison. MAYBE you can compare public universities located in the same state because those schools likely use the same accounting guidelines. Once you compare schools across state lines, across conference affiliations and especially public vs. private, the numbers are virtually meaningless.

Agreed, but it shows that at least at some level a football program is not automatically more valuable. Duke > West Virginia any day, having a national brand matters the most and that is getting forgotten.

[GGGG]

These tables show the value to the institution....not the value to the television network that is shelling out the $$$.