Steve Taylor vs JP Tokoto

[Nukem2]

Scout.com just revised its 2012 rankings.  Steve Taylor is now at #57 and JP Tokoto has dropped to #87.

[WarhawkWarrior]

Yes!

[Tugg Speedman]

Never said that Tokoto is not a good kid.  By all accounts he appears to be a great kid.  He'll be a great kid getting very little PT at UNC.

He is not better than Shabazz Muhammad (if he commits), James McAdoo, Jackson Simmons,  John Henson, Reggie Bullock or Harrison Barnes (if he stays).  

So where is the 87th best player in the country (new scout ranking) getting PT with these guys in front of him? Who on this list is he taking time away from?  I say none and he will average a few minutes a game freshman year, mostly clean up in blowouts.  Then I said this will cause him to transfer (I'm giving it 50/50 odds).

[Lennys Tap]

JP is like a stock that is falling in spite of a "buy" rating by Goldman Sachs (UNC). Usually not a good sign.

[ringout]

Tokota's drop is not a surprise if you watched him play last year.

[MUDPT]

What about Bobby Frasor?  He found a niche with UNC, with many more talented guys around him.  Just saying.

[Lennys Tap]

What about Bobby Frasor?  He found a niche with UNC, with many more talented guys around him.  Just saying.

Frasor's stock was upticking going into his senior year while JP's is falling. That said, Tokoto has the athletic ability to turn things around.

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

Never said that Tokoto is not a good kid.  By all accounts he appears to be a great kid.  He'll be a great kid getting very little PT at UNC.

He is not better than Shabazz Muhammad (if he commits), James McAdoo, Jackson Simmons,  John Henson, Reggie Bullock or Harrison Barnes (if he stays).  

So where is the 87th best player in the country (new scout ranking) getting PT with these guys in front of him? Who on this list is he taking time away from?  I say none and he will average a few minutes a game freshman year, mostly clean up in blowouts.  Then I said this will cause him to transfer (I'm giving it 50/50 odds).

Let's lose the assumption that PT is determined by rank coming out of high school. I take from your post that you think Roy Williams is taking into account what Rivals thinks about Tokoto when determining PT?

A coach studies the play of his teams opponents, his players and how to get them to work most effectively in his system. There's no way Rivals causes any change in that.

...unless the kid is actually becoming worse at basketball?

[ringout]

Let's lose the assumption that PT is determined by rank coming out of high school. I take from your post that you think Roy Williams is taking into account what Rivals thinks about Tokoto when determining PT?

A coach studies the play of his teams opponents, his players and how to get them to work most effectively in his system. There's no way Rivals causes any change in that.

...unless the kid is actually becoming worse at basketball?

Tokoto is an athletic freak, can jump out of the gym.  He does not have the body of a 4-5, but has always played inside.  He needs to develop a serious perimeter game to get any pt @ UNC.  He did not show any of that development last year, and based on his ranking falling during the AAU season, it looks as if he has not shown it yet.  Saw him play a game last year against a bunch of traditionals from Oconomowoc, and he did not look good.  He was very frustrated playing on the perimeter.  He even clanked a wide open dunk on a break.  Reminds me of Flavien Davis.  Very highly ranked as a soph but dropped like a stone when he topped out @ 6-5.  There may have been other issues with Davism, not sure, but....

[Tugg Speedman]

Let's lose the assumption that PT is determined by rank coming out of high school. I take from your post that you think Roy Williams is taking into account what Rivals thinks about Tokoto when determining PT?

A coach studies the play of his teams opponents, his players and how to get them to work most effectively in his system. There's no way Rivals causes any change in that.

...unless the kid is actually becoming worse at basketball?

No, I'm saying, and named, five players on the team that are better than him.  If they are indeed better, he gets very little playing time his freshman year.  And why he might develop into a decent senior, I'm betting he does not stay to find out.  50/50 he transfers.  (remember that last year was a record for transfers at the D1 level, including 4 from UNC)

My guess is that Roy saw the athleticism and is hoping he COULD turn into something.  Think of him as UNC's version of Carlton Christian.  

[avid1010]

My guess is that Roy saw the athleticism and is hoping he COULD turn into something.  Think of him as UNC's version of Carlton Christian.  

UNC doesn't have to take chances based on potential nearly as much as other schools do.  More often than not their dilemma is choosing the players they want.  I'm thinking he'll do what he what Roy and coaches tell him to do, work his tail off, and become a good player for NC. 

[ringout]

UNC doesn't have to take chances based on potential nearly as much as other schools do.  More often than not their dilemma is choosing the players they want.  I'm thinking he'll do what he what Roy and coaches tell him to do, work his tail off, and become a good player for NC. 

Not saying that can't or won't happen.  Just sayin that his game has not progressed at MFHS or AAU this year, and that doesn't bode well for a long productive career at UNC. 

I am not a JP hater or lover.  I don't mind if he succeeds at NC.  I'd lean toward hater if he was a BADger.  If he does have a productive career at NC, I'll tip my hat, because it means that he worked extremely hard to remake his game.  From the one article I read in the JS, it seems he is willing to work hard.  Hope he does well.

[wadesworld]

I agree with this.  If Roy likes them and wants them, then I'm going to go ahead and assume that there's a reason for that and they're going to be very good players in college.  I will take Roy Williams' opinion over that of ESPN's recruiting person.  Buzz wanted Tokoto too.  And so did just about every college coach.  There's a reason for that.  I don't understand how anyone could expect him to transfer back in state after 1 year without knowing who's going to be at UNC, how he's going to develop both his senior year of high school and while at UNC, etc.  He has all the physical tools to be a stud.  He just has to put it all together.  My money's on Roy being able to help him do that.  And I hope he does.  I hope he's a star at UNC.  And if Koenig ends up there, I hope 2 Wisconsin kids lead them to a number National Championship games (only to lose to Marquette in those   ).

Going along with this, they also play very up tempo and sub A LOT.  Even if you are the 10th man on UNC's team, you are going to see the court.  I would doubt it would be an issue and would be shocked if Tokoto isn't getting pretty significant minutes by his sophomore year there.

Edit: players 1-9 on UNC last year all averaged 14.5 mpg or more.  Nobody averaged 30 or more.  Player 10 averaged just under 10 mpg.  That's how it is at UNC.  There aren't many scholarship players that get buried on their bench.

I'm just going to quote myself here.  I am not a Tokoto lover or hater either.  I would love to see a Wisconsin high school kid go and make it big time at a program like UNC.

He does not have to be a top 5 player on UNC to see significant minutes.  Those who believe that have no idea how the UNC system works.  Again, NOBODY on their team averaged over 30 minutes per game last year.  And the 10th player on their team averaged 10 minutes per game.  The 9th averaged 15 minutes per game.  Again, he does not have to be the all star of UNC to see minutes.  He will be the 9th or 10th man as a freshman, and see 10-15 minutes.  Which is about 50% of what their star will see.  They play up tempo and they sub a lot.  Starting at UNC and being a bench player at UNC is much different than it was for last year's (and years before that) Marquette team.  They don't have 4 players all averaging over 30 minutes per game.  It just does not work like that.

And again, if every coach in the nation wanted the kid, including and especially Roy, I will trust that they believe he is a good player rather than obsessing over his fall in the rankings.

[Tugg Speedman]

JP is a good player.  Problem is you have to be a GREAT player to get significant PT at UNC.  He is not.

10th player in minutes on MU was Ewill at 7 minutes a game.  Ewill was a top 100 guy.  And where is he now?  Transferring.  I expect JP to be the 10th player at UNC, get about the same amount of PT and have the same outcome.

Roy makes mistakes, he had four transfers last year.  I hope JP is not a mistake but the fact is he is not progressing is worrisome.  (Don't give me the freakish athletic line, all UNC players are freakishly athletic)  Why do you think they want him to go to Oak Hill Academy in VA?  He is going backwards and it is a concern in Chapel Hill.

I hope be proves me wrong but I'm not as optimistic as you guys.

[Skatastrophy]

10th player in minutes on MU was Ewill at 7 minutes a game.  Ewill was a top 100 guy.  And where is he now?  Transferring.

EWill x-fering doesn't have anything to do with skill or PT. 

[GGGG]

EWill x-fering doesn't have anything to do with skill or PT. 

Of course it did.  Because players with more PT, who faced similar "circumstances" as EWill, are still around.

[Skatastrophy]

Of course it did.  Because players with more PT, who faced similar "circumstances" as EWill, are still around.

Incorrect.  It wasn't the athletic department's choice whether to keep him on schollie or not.  Same with Singleton.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Thanks for finding the UNC video.  Have you ever toured the Al McGuire Center?  While the Carolina facilities look very nice - MU's look equally as nice if not even slightly nicer.  Marquette's campus has come a LONG way in the last 15 years, and shows real well too.  Of course MU can't duplicate NC's weather, or even probably the number of pretty girls - but MU does have a very good image/facilities/campus/locker room/etc. to showcase.

Walking around reunion weekend I was stunned by how great campus looked and I was blown away by how great Milwaukee looked.  The shady area between the YMCA dorm and 3rd Ave Downtown was completely gone and downtown was buzzing with non-stop activity.  There were a town of downtown bars that I don't recall existing 20 yrs ago.  It was cool to see people having drinks at some huge Irish pub and then catching a shuttle bus to the Brewers game.

[muwarrior69]

Walking around reunion weekend I was stunned by how great campus looked and I was blown away by how great Milwaukee looked.  The shady area between the YMCA dorm and 3rd Ave Downtown was completely gone and downtown was buzzing with non-stop activity.  There were a town of downtown bars that I don't recall existing 20 yrs ago.  It was cool to see people having drinks at some huge Irish pub and then catching a shuttle bus to the Brewers game.

You should have seen the campus when I attended in the 60's. With all the urban renewal going on at the time it looked looked like a war zone. My last visit in '96 the campus looked spectacular from what I remember. Glad to hear its even better now.  Sorry for the off topic remark.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

You should have seen the campus when I attended in the 60's. With all the urban renewal going on at the time it looked looked like a war zone. My last visit in '96 the campus looked spectacular from what I remember. Glad to hear its even better now.  Sorry for the off topic remark.

My last visit to Milwaukee was 10 yrs ago for my 10 yr.  It was improved then but the change from 2001 to 2011 is remarkable.

[BubbaWilliams]

Aw man, some of you old timers need to make a trip back to the Wauk, especially since MU is going to the final four this year 

[Skatastrophy]

Aw man, some of you old timers need to make a trip back to the Wauk

Waukesha?

[JWags85]

Waukesha?

Waukegan?

[BubbaWilliams]

Waukegan?

nope. milWAUKee. You guy's can take the mega bus. It starts at $1!

[avid1010]

Of course it did.  Because players with more PT, who faced similar "circumstances" as EWill, are still around.

i'm calling bs on that statement.