Calhoun thinks Big East as we know it is doomed...

[Pakuni]

And it isn't just about large, metro television markets.  The problem with BE schools is that they generally aren't public universities with large, passionate alumni bases like you see in the SEC, B10 and B12.

The only school that even remotely fits that description is West Virginia.  The rest are either private schools without size, or public schools that lack a certain passion for football.  (Rutgers, UConn, USF)

Generally agree, but I think Pitt and Syracuse (and maybe even Louisville) are much closer to WVU than they are Rutgers and UConn. While both programs have fallen on hard times of late, they have large, passionate alumni bases and solid (if not better) football traditions. No, they're not SEC level, but who is? They're no worse, especially in terms of passion and fanbases, than several Big 1? and Big 12 programs, i.e. Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State.

[Coleman]

And it isn't just about large, metro television markets.  The problem with BE schools is that they generally aren't public universities with large, passionate alumni bases like you see in the SEC, B10 and B12.

The only school that even remotely fits that description is West Virginia.  The rest are either private schools without size, or public schools that lack a certain passion for football.  (Rutgers, UConn, USF)

I think Rutgers could be that kind of school if it started making solid bowls consistently. When they had a few good years, their fans really came out. Its a huge (52,000 students) state school. But they have to start winning consistently.

I also think Syracuse, although a private school and basketball school first, has a large passionate alumni base. But if their program were to start winning consistently I think you have all the necessary ingredients for a large TV audience. They have 20,000 students and a really good alumni network (at least in Chicago, where I live).

Also, USF has 45,000 students. I know most people in Florida are either Gators or Seminole fans, but its a big state school and I think could definitely win over some hearts in a state that cares a lot about football.

Same with Pitt. Large student population, very solid alumni base.

[brewcity77]

Pittsburgh at 23, Hartford at 30, Cincinnati at 34, Louisvile at 50, Charleston-Huntington at 65, Syracuse at 81, South Bend at 89 is the problem with BE Football.  Ratings, baby.  Bleed over TV markets is why BE basketball is more important and more profitable (and the NCAA annuity):  Chicago, NY, Washington, Boston-Providence and yes, Milwaukee-Madison-Chicago--along with Chicago-South Bend hoops. ESPN is already moving on reupping the BE early.  The long conference hoops schedule is competitive and an audience draw.

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2008/09/10/nielsen-local-television-market-universe-estimates/5037/

Well...yes and no. Hartford may be 30, but UConn draws attention from the entire New England region. Similarly, Syracuse may only be 81, but they also are the closest thing NYC has to a home college football team. And South Bend may be 89, but the South Bend market sure as hell isn't the reason NBC has pretty much given Notre Dame their own nationwide television contract.

If TCU could maintain their level of competitiveness, Notre Dame joined up, and 1-2 other teams emerged in a new Big East football league, it could very well have solid ratings drawing power. Not SEC drawing power, but still solid.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

   

[GGGG]

I think Rutgers could be that kind of school if it started making solid bowls consistently. When they had a few good years, their fans really came out. Its a huge (52,000 students) state school. But they have to start winning consistently.

I also think Syracuse, although a private school and basketball school first, has a large passionate alumni base. But if their program were to start winning consistently I think you have all the necessary ingredients for a large TV audience. They have 20,000 students and a really good alumni network (at least in Chicago, where I live).

Also, USF has 45,000 students. I know most people in Florida are either Gators or Seminole fans, but its a big state school and I think could definitely win over some hearts in a state that cares a lot about football.

Same with Pitt. Large student population, very solid alumni base.

"Could...but....I think..."

Of course any of this might happen.  I have a friend who grew up in Blacksburg, VA (home of Virginia Tech) and he is absolutely amazed that the school he knew is now a football power.

But that doesn't mean any of it *will* happen.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Well...yes and no. Hartford may be 30, but UConn draws attention from the entire New England region. Similarly, Syracuse may only be 81, but they also are the closest thing NYC has to a home college football team. And South Bend may be 89, but the South Bend market sure as hell isn't the reason NBC has pretty much given Notre Dame their own nationwide television contract.

If TCU could maintain their level of competitiveness, Notre Dame joined up, and 1-2 other teams emerged in a new Big East football league, it could very well have solid ratings drawing power. Not SEC drawing power, but still solid.

Bleed over is more critical and buying power of the audience (Syracuse, WV, KY are not exactly prime purchasing power targets) which is why I mentioned ND--who would join the B10 in football as the BE football markets don't deliver.  NYC could give a rat's arse about Syracuse football...maybe Rutgers a little bit.  You way overstate UCONN's drawing power for football. BC is far more important in the NE and they left. ESPN wants cable boxes for advertising dollars and BE basketball delivers that today--one that a national audience is interested in. There are much better football choices for ESPN.

Now, will ESPN offer up a BE Network?  Or Will COMCAST?  Google?  Subscriptions can overcome advertising $$ shortfalls as the BTN showed.  Basketball is just too profitable now in reality...which is why the BE is trying to shore up their football viewing markets via expansion (Dallas with VCU, Orlando next?). 

[El Duderino]

I wonder what the ultimate impact would be (will be?) when we are forced into a basketball-only league? Assuming all the Big East basketball-onlies join forces and poach another few teams...well, here's what possible new conferences would look like:

New Big East
Boston College
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Louisville
Miami (OH)
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
South Florida
Syracuse
TCU
West Virginia

Big East Refugees
Dayton
DePaul
George Mason
Georgetown
Marquette
Notre Dame
Providence
Seton Hall
St. John's
Temple
Villanova
Xavier

Just my thoughts, I think the New Big East would be fine. Perennial basketball powers like UConn, Louisville, Syracuse, Pittsburgh...while it won't be as good as the current Big East, there's plenty of quality at the top and it could still be a 6+ bid league per year. With the football profile and truly top-notch basketball programs, it should stay an elite league in basketball.

Looking at the Big East Refugees, I'm not sure how well it would go. Georgetown is clearly the elite program of the bunch, and a number of other teams there have experienced semi-regular success (Marquette, Villanova, Notre Dame, Xavier) but I wonder how well they would hold up. It seems like a league that initially would be a powerhouse, but could fall out of favor if at least 2-3 teams didn't max out each year.

I think there's a potentially very good conference out of the teams that would be left out in the cold by Big East football, but the future is obviously brighter for us the longer we can stay in this league.

I'm not saying the Big East won't break up, but that is an ugly BCS football conference and not one i see attracting much fan interest.

[brewcity77]

I'm not saying the Big East won't break up, but that is an ugly BCS football conference and not one i see attracting much fan interest.

That's why I think they need Notre Dame, to add some sex appeal. TCU is legit, West Virginia, Pitt, and Cincy are all decent, and UCF and Rutgers seem to really be on the rise, but at the end of the day, it's a one-team league. ND would give them some football legitimacy and really help the recruiting of the rest of the league. Add ND and give the league 4-5 years and you could see it actually becoming competitive, maybe not with the SEC or Big Numerology, but certainly with the ACC, PAC-12, and the Big<12.

[BEfootballview]

Interesting views on this thread. If you pay close attention to what the footabll schools have been doing, there are exciting times ahead for them (at least they hope so).

Benny - The reason the football schools are entertaining the idea of leaving are for the same reasons BC decided to leave. I dont recall if it was their AD or President that said it, but (to paraphrase since I cant find the exact quote since the internet is overloaded with expansion stuff) he said the way the conference is constructed with full-time and part-time members "doesnt work." He found it increasingly difficult to work with so many different schools with different visions/objectives/resources/etc.Their decision wasnt even about the money since the BE countered with an offer that would give them a bigger piece of the pie than any other school and exceeded their ACC annual pay-out. Plus, I think they enjoy that academics of the ACC as well.

Anyways, I have been following BE football for awhile and there are more and more signs that a split will happen. When? Probably when the football schools feel comfortable with their football product. Right now, they obviously arent ready and need to leverage the bball-only markets/revenue/resources. But the football schools seem to be making a push and Calhoun may not be far off.

If you look around, the football schools are all either well positioned right now to improve or are on their way. WVU and Pitt's biggest problem were underwhelming coaching staffs. Wannstedt was a great recruiter but terrible game coach. Both schools' facilities are competitive. WVU is FINALLY looking into selling alcohol which would result in $6M added revenue per year for them. What took so long and why now? In a survey on one of the prep recruiting sites, Rutgers's new locker room and practice facilities were ranked by previous classes as being in the top 10 in the country. UConn was listed in the top 15. Syracuse is undergoing a major fundraising campaign to either build a practice bubble or a brand new bricks and mortar facility. They recently hired Floyd Little to coordinate the efforts. HC Marone seems to have them on track. USF is hoping to cash in on their new coach as well but he needs 2-3 classes to get his players in place. Slowly, the BE

Also, if you look at the scheduling of BE teams, they are all finally starting to ditching bottom-feeders and FCS teams (except for Rutgers which has a tradition of crappy OOC schedules). Everyone understands that BE teams arent going to suddenly sell-out every game but an overall improvement in facilities, stronger schedules and a wave of new coaches will make the next 3-4 years far more interesting than the previous 5 years. As for the markets, more and more teams are starting to play OOC games at neutral sites. I believe WVU, SU, Pitt and RU all have confirmed games with other top BCS teams (1 home, 1 away, 1 neutral). I read a Bennett article in which it is believed that SU will be playing two OOC games per year at Giants Stadium to rejuvenate their NYC metro area alumnin base. Again, Im not saying the next Penn State is going to be born in this new era of BE football, but I think it is obvious that the conference needs WVU, Pitt and SU to win and they are all on track. In my opinion, the image of the conference takes a hit every time UL or Cincy win it. The old guard is vital. I think a split is likely if those three teams can become regular top 25's in a few years (plus TCU). If you dont think so, then you have nothing to worry about and the conference will continue to be one big happy dysfunctional family.

Just remember: It was the bball schools that said last summer they would force a split if the conference added one more full-time member. You may not have to wait for the fball schools to act; the bball schools will initiate the split themselves. An idle threat?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Crazy thought:

Clearly there is going to be a conference realignment across the country in the next 5-7 years.

Could MU and Depaul get pick up by the Big Ten to round out their conference? I know it seems insane, but if the Big Ten goes to 16 or even 18 "football schools", they could easily add 2 BBall schools who compete in most sports other than football and hockey.

I guess the only real motivation for the Big Ten would be $$, which MU seems to be bringing, and DePaul has potential if they can ever get the program right.

To put it another way, could MU and Depaul end up being the basketball salt and pepper on the Big Ten football steak? Prob. not, but in a massive mad-dash realignment, if conferences look to maximize potential revenue, MU has some value.

[GGGG]

Could MU and Depaul get pick up by the Big Ten to round out their conference?

Not a chance in hell.  The B10 is too big and too rich to have to deal with part-time members.  And while MU has value, it is miniscule in the B10s view of the world.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Crazy thought:

Clearly there is going to be a conference realignment across the country in the next 5-7 years.

Could MU and Depaul get pick up by the Big Ten to round out their conference? I know it seems insane, but if the Big Ten goes to 16 or even 18 "football schools", they could easily add 2 BBall schools who compete in most sports other than football and hockey.

I guess the only real motivation for the Big Ten would be $$, which MU seems to be bringing, and DePaul has potential if they can ever get the program right.

To put it another way, could MU and Depaul end up being the basketball salt and pepper on the Big Ten football steak? Prob. not, but in a massive mad-dash realignment, if conferences look to maximize potential revenue, MU has some value.

Not In A Million Years.  We don't have enough NCAA violations to be considered

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

That's why I think they need Notre Dame, to add some sex appeal. TCU is legit, West Virginia, Pitt, and Cincy are all decent, and UCF and Rutgers seem to really be on the rise, but at the end of the day, it's a one-team league. ND would give them some football legitimacy and really help the recruiting of the rest of the league. Add ND and give the league 4-5 years and you could see it actually becoming competitive, maybe not with the SEC or Big Numerology, but certainly with the ACC, PAC-12, and the Big<12.

ND has a huge fanbase, and the Big East would be lucky to have them, but I don't see how that would give the conference more football legitimacy? They have 5 bowl game wins in the last 21 years, and haven't had a coach with any measure of success since Lou Holtz.

I guess my point is, when does Notre Dame cease to be part of the "Football Elite"? How bad does the record have to get? In my opinion, the school is valuable as a brand (academic; apparel; trite, cliche movies), but certainly not valuable as a football program.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Not a chance in hell.  The B10 is too big and too rich to have to deal with part-time members.  And while MU has value, it is miniscule in the B10s view of the world.

You're probably right.

I'm just thinking about a conference trying to "maximize revenue" while still maintaining the appearance of academic integrity.

MU and Depaul (potentially) produce $ in hoops and won't take away any FB $. I mean, the B10 could structure the deal so MU and DePaul were clearly at a disadvantage, and MU and DePaul would still probably take it.

When the mad dash begins, I have no idea how the dominoes will fall. However, MU (provided hoops maintains it's high level), might not be as screwed as we think. It could be an attractive cherry on top of a new conference.

I mean, really, the B10 has nothing to lose in this scenario. They could make MU and DePaul probational members, and MU and DePaul would still probably jump at the chance.

or

MU might be hanging with Dayton and Xavier.

[Pakuni]

I mean, really, the B10 has nothing to lose in this scenario. They could make MU and DePaul probational members, and MU and DePaul would still probably jump at the chance.

Northwestern (motto: "Chicago's Big 10 Team!") and Illinois both would have serious reservations with DePaul joining their conference, and I suspect Wisconson might feel the same way about Marquette.

While I'm in no way eager to join a conference with Dayton, St. Louis, etc., Xavier seems to have managed it. It's Option #2 by a long, long stretch, but it wouldn't relegate MU hoops to Loyola-Chicago status.

[bilsu]

Based on the above should we be rooting for Big East to lose non-conference football games and bowl games.

[DFW HOYA]

Big East Refugees
Dayton
DePaul
George Mason
Georgetown
Marquette
Notre Dame
Providence
Seton Hall
St. John's
Temple
Villanova
Xavier

For Georgetown's sake, I hope that never comes to pass. Attendance would plummet and the cost of Verizon Center would not justify it. The alternative is a 60 year old, 2,000 seat gym with 100 surface parking spaces on campus. Any takers?

[RawdogDX]

I think every old guy in the world thinks that crazy things are going to happen as soon as they lose their job.

I'm sure there's a word for it, like when a person thinks that the period of time that they're alive is most probably the most important time in history.

I'm not saying Calhoun's wrong.  I'm just saying he's old and tired.

Or how they think, Music, Movies, Sports, and People peaked when they were around 25.

[Benny B]

Benny - The reason the football schools are entertaining the idea of leaving are for the same reasons BC decided to leave. I dont recall if it was their AD or President that said it, but (to paraphrase since I cant find the exact quote since the internet is overloaded with expansion stuff) he said the way the conference is constructed with full-time and part-time members "doesnt work." He found it increasingly difficult to work with so many different schools with different visions/objectives/resources/etc.Their decision wasnt even about the money since the BE countered with an offer that would give them a bigger piece of the pie than any other school and exceeded their ACC annual pay-out. Plus, I think they enjoy that academics of the ACC as well.

That's interesting because you're the first person on here to say this (it's refreshing to get an outside perspective once in a while).  Up until now, everyone on this board who has forecast the "inevitability" of a BE split has either directly stated or strongly implied that it is all about the money.

[Excellent first post, BTW.  Welcome.]

If the BE splits, money won't be the driver.  The college football system as we know it today is not a sustainable model... the "big money" that fuels the system is not going to be around 10 years from now.  In a society where any institution that receives taxpayer money - directly or indirectly - is becoming increasingly scrutinized, no longer will a system that filters tens of millions of dollars annually to private TV networks, bowl game promoters, and a handful of schools who happen to control the BCS system be tolerated when 80-90% of FCS and FBS school lose money on football.

If the BE football schools want to break off to form their own conference purely for money reasons, in 20 years such a move will be discussed in the same B-school case study alongside New Coke.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Northwestern (motto: "Chicago's Big 10 Team!") and Illinois both would have serious reservations with DePaul joining their conference, and I suspect Wisconson might feel the same way about Marquette.

While I'm in no way eager to join a conference with Dayton, St. Louis, etc., Xavier seems to have managed it. It's Option #2 by a long, long stretch, but it wouldn't relegate MU hoops to Loyola-Chicago status.

Totally fair and you're probably right.

I guess I'm just banking on greed winning all arguments. If they can add revenue, they would do it, especially if the conference musical chairs happens quickly. There will be a mad grab for anything/everything that can produce $$. Rivalries and catchy slogans be damned.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The draw for the Big East traditionally has been its strength in basketball. The league sent 11 teams to the NCAA tournament this past season and its ninth-place squad, UConn, wound up winning the national championship. Football, on the other hand, has been a drag on the conference.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2011/04/18/Media/ESPN-Big-East.aspx

Very good article outling the issues of the reup and differences over strategy between schools and stronger football conferences.  The BE football schools may think it is more profitable to be on their own or elsewhere, but the reality (size of DMA and $$ Power) is that no one really wants them (TV or other conferences at this point). The BE needs to grow their football franchise first.  COMCAST/NBC could be good leverage, especially if, somehow, they can get ND to go BE in football based on their long-standing NBC alliance. 

[BEfootballview]

Benny -- BC would not have left if it didnt make financial sense. After all, their travel expenses were going to increase by going to the ACC. They just chose to cite their issues with a conference made up of full-time and part-time members and that they prefered stability.

And Im going to have to disagree with you when you say that the "big money" from the networks wont be around in 10 years. Couple reasons: 1) Neither you nor the rest of the general public has complained about the rising costs of your monthly cable subscription. If you and the general public have complained, you certainly havent dropped service. 2) DVR!!!! The popularity of DVR's has made companies re-think how they want to advertise. Sitcoms (and all pre-recorded programming) are being recorded more and more often...to be watched at a later date/time. Do you watch commercials of programs you record? Probably not. So, more advertising dollars are flowing from pre-recorded programs into LIVE programs (sports and news). There arent a lot of people that say to themselves, "Im going to miss the news tonight so I better set my dvr to record it so I can watch it next week." People generally dont record sporting events unless they want to watch it a SECOND time.

The money is there right now and it will be there 10 years from now. It will be there until the cable providers start losing money due to falling subscriber numbers. And consumers always warm up to higher prices over time. Remeber when a really good cell phone used to cost under $100? Or when your monthly phone bill was under $50? Who would have thought 15 years ago that the average consumer would shell out $1-5K for a television? Are those same people going to cut out their cable subscriptions? Thats kind of like buying a car and not being able to afford the gas.

[brewcity77]

ND has a huge fanbase, and the Big East would be lucky to have them, but I don't see how that would give the conference more football legitimacy? They have 5 bowl game wins in the last 21 years, and haven't had a coach with any measure of success since Lou Holtz.

I guess my point is, when does Notre Dame cease to be part of the "Football Elite"? How bad does the record have to get? In my opinion, the school is valuable as a brand (academic; apparel; trite, cliche movies), but certainly not valuable as a football program.

Whether we like it or not, Notre Dame is still Notre Dame. Their name still carries weight and they can still recruit. The results haven't been there, but they still carry weight football-wise. Honestly, I think their independence has helped them stay relevant, because even when they have a bad year, they still end up 6-6 or so and go to a bowl game, and their massive traveling support entices bigger bowl games than they probably deserve to take them.

What if they were in the Big Numerology right now? They'd probably be going 2-6 in conference (if they play 8 conference games, I don't pay enough attention to NCAA football to know) and be missing out on bowl games. Now that would kill their value as a football program. If they truly became some conference's DePaul, it would kill them, but independence has helped them survive and maintain some of their luster despite down years.

If they didn't have value as a football program, they wouldn't have been the Big Numerology's top choice, ahead of Nebraska and Missouri. And while Notre Dame might be down, they'd still compete for the top of the Big East right now, at least until TCU gets there. That would provide a road back to the BCS, which would keep them in recruiting spotlights and with the right coach, potentially lift them right back to where they once were within 3-5 years.

I don't know if any of that will happen, but ND still has football value. And honestly, I don't know what it will take to truly wipe all that away. Ironically, it's possible that making the move to survive (joining a conference) will be the thing that kills them (if they end up at the bottom of said conference). But other than that, they stay relevant as long as they can keep around .500 or just over and keep that NBC contract.

[Benny B]

And Im going to have to disagree with you when you say that the "big money" from the networks wont be around in 10 years. Couple reasons: 1) Neither you nor the rest of the general public has complained about the rising costs of your monthly cable subscription. If you and the general public have complained, you certainly havent dropped service.

This is just flat wrong.  First of all, I have complained about the rising cost of cable, and I have dropped my service.  But that aside, your comment wasn't intended to be about me, it was about the general public.  Even so, if you Google "declining cable subscriptions," "HTPC," "streaming television," and "over the air HD," you'll find that while I may be in the minority, the number of people like me are growing exponentially.

2) DVR!!!! The popularity of DVR's has made companies re-think how they want to advertise. Sitcoms (and all pre-recorded programming) are being recorded more and more often...to be watched at a later date/time. Do you watch commercials of programs you record? Probably not. So, more advertising dollars are flowing from pre-recorded programs into LIVE programs (sports and news). There arent a lot of people that say to themselves, "Im going to miss the news tonight so I better set my dvr to record it so I can watch it next week." People generally dont record sporting events unless they want to watch it a SECOND time.

I see your point, and it's well taken.  However, I would point out that in the Big East, there were over 425 basketball games last year; there were less than 90 football games.  Football more popular you say?  Without a doubt, but popularity doesn't always equal viewership.  The 2010-11 bowl games drew a combined 221 million viewers in 34 bowl games (6.5 million per game).  The 2011 NCAA tournament drew an average of 10.2 million viewers per game.  In other words, if it's live-sports opportunities you want, basketball - not football - is where it's at.

The money is there right now and it will be there 10 years from now. It will be there until the cable providers start losing money due to falling subscriber numbers. And consumers always warm up to higher prices over time. Remeber when a really good cell phone used to cost under $100? Or when your monthly phone bill was under $50? Who would have thought 15 years ago that the average consumer would shell out $1-5K for a television? Are those same people going to cut out their cable subscriptions? Thats kind of like buying a car and not being able to afford the gas.

Cable providers are as dead as the BCS.  The distribution model is changing.  MLB already markets its product directly to the consumer.  ESPN3 does the same thing.  Look for more content providers to cut out the middle man (the Comcasts, Time Warners, etc.) as more and more of the $1-5k televisions come with internet connectivity.  Further, in 10 years, everything will be a la carte... people won't be forced into subscribing to ESPN, BTN, etc. if they don't want to.  This is going to be a huge blow to the networks who won't be able to force 5 people to pay for their product for each person who truly wants the product.

[Marquette84]

I guess I don't understand any basis for the mutual attraction of the BE basketball schools and Xavier, Butler or Dayton.

Well, maybe Dayton, because its probably less humiliating to suck when you're in a conference with Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame and Marquette.

But Xavier has done quite well with 5 straight A10 championships and 8 NCAA bids in the last 9 years--all without being in a conference with MU, ND, VU, GU St. Johns, SHU, etc.

Butler has a similar record of success--5 straight Horizon championships, 6 NCAA bids (2 appearances in the championship game) in the last 9 years.  Again, without being in a conference with BE teams like MU, GU, VU, ND, SJU and SHU.

The fundamental problem is that at the end of the season, half the teams have to be in the bottom half.  We can't build the Lake Woebegone conference where all teams are above average, no matter how many "name" programs we try and load into it.

My guess is that Butler and Xavier will choose to stay where they are, and that the BE basketball teams will have to aim lower to fill out the bottom half of their new conference.