Calhoun thinks Big East as we know it is doomed...

[ecompt]

http://eye-on-college-basketball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/29531857

[esotericmindguy]

On the bright side it looks like a great basketball league.

[Skatastrophy]

I think every old guy in the world thinks that crazy things are going to happen as soon as they lose their job.

I'm sure there's a word for it, like when a person thinks that the period of time that they're alive is most probably the most important time in history.

I'm not saying Calhoun's wrong.  I'm just saying he's old and tired.

[Hards Alumni]

http://eye-on-college-basketball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/29531857

Doesn't he say this every year?

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Doesn't he say this every year?

Yes.
I guess he's ticked that he's lost 3 scholarship's already this year.

[79Warrior]

Doesn't he say this every year?

He has and he is right. It is just a matter of time. Once football gets the numbers it wants they will say goodbye to hoops only.

[bilsu]

He said the next couple of years or 4 or 5 years down the road. At least it is not imminent. I think if we get to 20 teams, it becomes a problem. Much easier for 12 football teams to go their own way than 9,10 or 11. The league is safe as long as we stay at 17 teams.

[brewcity77]

I wonder what the ultimate impact would be (will be?) when we are forced into a basketball-only league? Assuming all the Big East basketball-onlies join forces and poach another few teams...well, here's what possible new conferences would look like:

New Big East
Boston College
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Louisville
Miami (OH)
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
South Florida
Syracuse
TCU
West Virginia

Big East Refugees
Dayton
DePaul
George Mason
Georgetown
Marquette
Notre Dame
Providence
Seton Hall
St. John's
Temple
Villanova
Xavier

Just my thoughts, I think the New Big East would be fine. Perennial basketball powers like UConn, Louisville, Syracuse, Pittsburgh...while it won't be as good as the current Big East, there's plenty of quality at the top and it could still be a 6+ bid league per year. With the football profile and truly top-notch basketball programs, it should stay an elite league in basketball.

Looking at the Big East Refugees, I'm not sure how well it would go. Georgetown is clearly the elite program of the bunch, and a number of other teams there have experienced semi-regular success (Marquette, Villanova, Notre Dame, Xavier) but I wonder how well they would hold up. It seems like a league that initially would be a powerhouse, but could fall out of favor if at least 2-3 teams didn't max out each year.

I think there's a potentially very good conference out of the teams that would be left out in the cold by Big East football, but the future is obviously brighter for us the longer we can stay in this league.

[GGGG]

The only outlier in the Refugees league is George Mason.  A large public university amongst all privates.  My guess is that you would see St. Louis before them.

[muguru]

I hate it when this talk comes up. Everyone that tries to project what a new conference would look like with the basketball only schools, comments how it would still be a very good conference. NO IT WOULDN'T. It would suck. Might as well be back in CUSA. Especially when people are throwing in Stl/Dayton et al. Any conference MU would be in now with the loss of Louisville, PITT, UCONN, Syracuse, would be a death knell. recruiting would go down terribly and MU would basically be just a step above a mid major IMO.

[brewcity77]

The only outlier in the Refugees league is George Mason.  A large public university amongst all privates.  My guess is that you would see St. Louis before them.

Probably right...didn't realize they were public.

The other question is if Notre Dame would stick with their football independence or if they would finally wise up and join a conference. They'd be nice to have as a basketball-only, but I have to imagine they'll join a conference eventually.

[Tugg Speedman]

The other question is if Notre Dame would stick with their football independence or if they would finally wise up and join a conference. They'd be nice to have as a basketball-only, but I have to imagine they'll join a conference eventually.

If they do join a conference for football, it will not be the Big East.  The B10 (12?) will roll out the red carpet for them.

[brewcity77]

If they do join a conference for football, it will not be the Big East.  The B10 (12?) will roll out the red carpet for them.

I'm not so sure about that. If Notre Dame joins the Big Tweleventeen, they just become one more team amongst the Michigans, Ohio States, and Nebraskas of the conference. It would produce some nice games for them, but it would give ND a very tough road to get into a BCS game simply because the competition would be so high. If they joined the Big East they have a much clearer path to the BCS. TCU, Pitt, West Virginia, not nearly as daunting, and Notre Dame's inclusion in the conference would also guarantee the Big East remains as a BCS football conference.

I think ND making any move whatsoever is probably still 3-4 years off, it just seems like things are cooling down since Nebraska's move and they want to keep their independence for the time being, but when decision day does come, they'll likely have the option of being the biggest fish or a middle-sized fish. As much as the Big Numerology may have going for it right now, a potential Big East Network (by then) and the possibility of being the dominant team in the New Big East might prove enough of an allure to pull ND into the BEast full bore.

[brewcity77]

But enough about ND...what do people think about that as a possible basketball conference? Any thoughts on a twelfth team in lieu of George Mason? St. Louis? Butler? Someone else?

[Coleman]

I feel like this has been talked about ad nauseam throughout Scoop's history, but what the hell...


I agree this is eventually going to happen. It won't be until the next major conference realignment, or when the Big East expands to 10+ football teams. At that point, the football teams will break away. This is why I have a hard time understanding why Nova wouldn't immediately accept the invite they got to join the Big East for football. It would keep them in the league.

But I agree with the Basketball-only conference you put out Brew, with the exception of George Mason already mentioned. I don't see ND joining a conference for football, so they'd join the new league and put it at 9 teams. I think they'd try to poach 3 from the A-10, probably Xavier, Dayton and one of either SLU, Temple or St. Joe's for a 12 team league.

I think the basketball only league would be pretty competitive, probably a 4 or 5 bid conference almost every year. Unfortunately, since we wouldn't be a "BCS" conference, we would undoubtedly be a "mid major." Would certainly be the best of the mid majors though. Would obviously have some SOS issues, but I think we could survive as a very relevant program in such a league.

[vregan3]

Anyone who believes the Big E will last forever is wrong.  As they said in Wall Street, "It's all about the money, everything else is just conversation."
We may all think that the Big East will keep MU just because we're nice people; but, nice is not alway profitable.
The Milwaukee TV market is not big enough to warrant eliminating football.  As soon as they can find another Pitt, L'ville or WV; they will shed the "Catholic 8" as quickly as you can say ESPN4.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Anyone who believes the Big E will last forever is wrong.  As they said in Wall Street, "It's all about the money, everything else is just conversation."
We may all think that the Big East will keep MU just because we're nice people; but, nice is not alway profitable.
The Milwaukee TV market is not big enough to warrant eliminating football.  As soon as they can find another Pitt, L'ville or WV; they will shed the "Catholic 8" as quickly as you can say ESPN4.

Pittsburgh at 23, Hartford at 30, Cincinnati at 34, Louisvile at 50, Charleston-Huntington at 65, Syracuse at 81, South Bend at 89 is the problem with BE Football.  Ratings, baby.  Bleed over TV markets is why BE basketball is more important and more profitable (and the NCAA annuity):  Chicago, NY, Washington, Boston-Providence and yes, Milwaukee-Madison-Chicago--along with Chicago-South Bend hoops. ESPN is already moving on reupping the BE early.  The long conference hoops schedule is competitive and an audience draw.

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2008/09/10/nielsen-local-television-market-universe-estimates/5037/

[Benny B]

Anyone who believes the Big E will last forever is wrong.  As they said in Wall Street, "It's all about the money, everything else is just conversation."

How's this for conversation:

Based on recent performance, if the Big East eliminated non-football schools this year, the conference would lose roughly $10-12 million in annual revenue from the departing schools' NCAA tournament shares.

[jefffla01]

Calhoun is correct----the current big east is going to be toast shortly.

Football is going to drive the new tv deal----I am sure they are going for 12 football members and probably they will add Central Florida and probably Houston. Skip Holtz is endorsing Eastern Carolina and that probably makes sense.

The current tv deal expires in 2013----espn is aggressively negotiating a new deal predicated on football expansion.

Since the current big east provides fantastic basketball on espn I am sure they would interested in tv deal with the departing basketball members----it would be a great conference. Despair not----Marquette will be a key player in that new conference and it would be a good situation-----Notre Dame, Georgetown, St.Johns,
Marquette, De Paul, Seton Hall ect-----good conference especially if Xavier and one or two other programs from the Atlantic 10 bolt.

[Coleman]

Calhoun is correct----the current big east is going to be toast shortly.

Football is going to drive the new tv deal----I am sure they are going for 12 football members and probably they will add Central Florida and probably Houston. Skip Holtz is endorsing Eastern Carolina and that probably makes sense.

The current tv deal expires in 2013----espn is aggressively negotiating a new deal predicated on football expansion.

Since the current big east provides fantastic basketball on espn I am sure they would interested in tv deal with the departing basketball members----it would be a great conference. Despair not----Marquette will be a key player in that new conference and it would be a good situation-----Notre Dame, Georgetown, St.Johns,
Marquette, De Paul, Seton Hall ect-----good conference especially if Xavier and one or two other programs from the Atlantic 10 bolt.

A competitive conference, yes. Great? No. And not even close to what we have now.

[GGGG]

Calhoun is correct----the current big east is going to be toast shortly.

Football is going to drive the new tv deal----I am sure they are going for 12 football members and probably they will add Central Florida and probably Houston. Skip Holtz is endorsing Eastern Carolina and that probably makes sense.

Here is the problem though.  Of the six BCS conferences, the Big East is clearly the weakest football product.  Not only do they not produce on the field, they don't produce ratings.  While they will likely get a better television contract, the thought that adding schools like Central Florida and Houston will make the *per school revenue* greater might be a long shot.  Frankly, it makes the BE look more like a mid-major football conference than it does improve them from a BCS point of view.

Yeah, I think eventually the BE may break apart.  But I wouldn't be surprised if the $$ don't work out in football's favor.

[Abode4life]

Here is the problem though.  Of the six BCS conferences, the Big East is clearly the weakest football product.  Not only do they not produce on the field, they don't produce ratings.  While they will likely get a better television contract, the thought that adding schools like Central Florida and Houston will make the *per school revenue* greater might be a long shot.  Frankly, it makes the BE look more like a mid-major football conference than it does improve them from a BCS point of view.

Yeah, I think eventually the BE may break apart.  But I wouldn't be surprised if the $$ don't work out in football's favor.

I totally agree.  Eventually the BE will break apart.  However, in order to get big money for football, and to be financially viable without the great basketball, the BE is going to have to win first. 

The major drawback of most of the current BE tv markets, is a lot of People in New York and D.C. area are transplants and not necessarily huge BE football fans.  So until the BE starts winning on a consistent basis, a lot of people in the BE's major markets aren't going to care if they see their games. 

[GGGG]

And it isn't just about large, metro television markets.  The problem with BE schools is that they generally aren't public universities with large, passionate alumni bases like you see in the SEC, B10 and B12.

The only school that even remotely fits that description is West Virginia.  The rest are either private schools without size, or public schools that lack a certain passion for football.  (Rutgers, UConn, USF)

[Benny B]

Someone please explain what the benefit would be for the football-schools to break away in the Big East?  As I understand, the football money the Big East currently takes in is only distributed to the football schools, i.e. Marquette sees no benefit from the Big East's participation in the BCS bowl games.

So if the football money goes only to football schools... where's the sense in splitting the conference up?  Financially, it already is.

[GGGG]

Simply because as football revenues continue to grow in relation to basketball revenues, the importance of keeping the "basketball schools" around decreases.  You don't need to have them around....you don't have to listen to them...you don't need to have extra mouths to feed.