[Cracked Sidewalks] Transfer Murray or Prep Jarion Henry ahead of JUCO All-Americans on wish list

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Transfer Murray or Prep Jarion Henry ahead of JUCO All-Americans on wish list

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

God's Gift Achiuwa 22.3 points and 11.7 rebounds per game certainly explains Marquette's interest.  However when comparing him with other potential recruits that has to be tempered by the fact that he played for a team that Marquette would have beaten about 99-62 this year.

Erie Community College is a Division 2 JUCO school, so Achiuwa's stats are not nearly as impressive as Jae Crowder's 18.9, 9.0 at Howard College, which was better than most Division 1 schools last year, or Aaric Murray's 15.2, 7.7 at La Salle.  Level of competition is the key to evaluating the rest of the stats, and luckily www.masseyratings.com gives us the tools to measure how Marquette would be expected to do against the other 2,071 JUCO and college teams.


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Marquette-vs-OpponentScoreMarginSignees?[/tr]

Ohio State	L66-77	-11	1st ranked team
Xavier	W72-70	2	6-8 Jordan Latham
Howard CC last year	W74-60	14	6-5 Jae Crowder last year
La Salle	W87-73	14	6-10 Aaric Murray
Wyoming	W80-60	20	6-5 Jackson/6-9 M'baye
College of Southern Idaho	W94-69	25	5-10 Pierre Jackson
San Jacinto CC	W97-64	33	5-11 Marsell Holden
Monroe CC-Bronx	W101-57	44	6-3 Jeff Early
Lawson State Community College	W89-61	28	6-5 Larry McGaughey
Missouri State-West Plains	W97-60	37	6-0 Lonnie Hayes
North Idaho CC	W98-55	43	5-9 Michael Hale
Erie Community College	W99-62	37	6-9 Gods Gift Achiuwa
Cape Fear Community College	W92-52	40	6-4 Tavares Speaks
Chattanooga State Tech CC	W83-58	25	6-11 Philip Jurick
Appalachian Bible School	W131-19	112	2072nd ranked team
Dallas, TX High School			6-8 Jarion Henry
Lee, Maine High School			6-9 Keith Coleman
Van Buren, AR High School			6-10 Hooper Vint

So to take an extreme case, if we heard that the star of the Appalachian Bible School team was thinking of transferring to Marquette, we wouldn't be very excited because they are the worst team in the country and would likely lose about 131-19 to MU on a nuetral court.  At the other extreme, if a good role player from Ohio State wanted to transfer we would be interested since they were about 11 points better than MU last year, so their strong sub might be our starter.

This is why we insisted last year Crowder would be a rookie star.  He led Howard College to the national JUCO title at 28-2, and they were actually the 117th best team in the country, much better than the top JUCO team this year (Midland 265th ranked).  While Howard would have been expected to stay within 14 of MU last year, only four JUCO teams this year would be expected to stay within 25 points.

The two players who jump out from those teams as players who could probably contribute to MU are point guard Pierre Jackson, who was ranked only 62nd the beginning of the year, but took 1st team honors and tournament MVP for a good Southern Idaho team that could have held their own against Marquette (predicted 94-69 loss).  Sounds like he is leaning Iowa, but with Buzz's knack for nabbing JUCO players, we don't know who we are in the running for.  

However, if we have settled on the final spot being a big man, then certainly 6-11 Philip Jurick is the one true center out there with 11 points, 13 rebounds and 8 blocks per game for a Chattanooga State Community College team that likewise could have held it's own against Marquette (83-58 final predicted).  He initially played at Tennessee as a 4-star recruit before dropping down to JUCO, and Mississippi State and Huggins both want him, and his defensive dominance against pretty good JUCO competition is one reason his team would be forecast to hold MU to a reasonable 83 points in a hypothetical match-up.  Obviously the question is how important he would be in light of Chris Otule's excellent defensive play since only scoring 11 ppg at the JUCO level probably indicates he would purely be a dominant defensive player.

We just bring up these two JUCO players and Achiuwa because of Buzz's reputation and knack for grabbing JUCOs, and because they have at least not committed elsewhere.  However I have provided an alphabetical list at the bottom of all 50 JUCO All-Americans and how their teams would have done against Marquette from Xavier Blount/Johnson's Conchise College team that could have stayed within 22 points, to Cheikh Mbodj's Grayson College team that probably would have lost by about 58 points.

Not to say a good recruit can't come from a bad team, but view the players stats in the context of their competition if signed.

Tranfer Murray bigger impact player than any JUCOs

Crowder's Howard team last year was about as good as Murray's LaSalle team this year, and better than Wyoming, whose top two players are transfering and of interest to some MU fans.  Murray's stats as the best player and a dominating inside force for a team that was only about 14 points worse than Marquette makes him the player who would likely add the most extra wins, but transfers have to sit out a year of course.

As for other transfers, I do believe 6-9 Amath M'baye from Wyoming is worth a look.  MU would likely have beaten the Cowboys about 80-60 this year, but as M'baye was one of their top two players already he could certainly be an impact player after a redshirt year.  While Xavier was really just a couple of points worse than MU despite our big tournament win by more, 6-8 freshman transfer Jordan Latham was a non-factor for them and was just a 3-star in high school, so I would think M'baye would be a better catch if available.

Jarion Henry or other high schooler may be best realistic pick-up

However, now that we are no longer desperate for depth NOW, absent Murray the best pickup might be a high school player, with our last possible shot at a 4-star possible in Jarion Henry out of Texas.  I believe that would be a bigger get than Achiuwa, though I would probably still take Murray first.  Now with Baylor setting up Facebook pages to gush over Henry, New Mexico practically giving him the keys to the city on his visit there, and Texas turning attention to him, it may well be that we are not even in the picture for Murray, Achiuwa or Henry, but the same principle of evaluating competition applies to whoever the last signee is.

With MU having already locked up two of the top 10 players in New England, 6-foot-9 Keith Coleman could be an intimidating force inside, or 6-foot-10 Hooper Vint is in Buzz's wheelhouse at Arkansas.

One reason I am tending a little away from a JUCO is that as I poured over the JUCO All-American team that was just announced, the problem is that there are only a couple of centers (our top priority) and pure point guards (probably our 2nd priority).  However, here is the alphabetical list so that if a JUCOs name starts to be thrown around you have a quick reference to see how good their team was last year.


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FnameLnameJUCO SchoolScoreMU ScoreMarginHeightAll-Am[/tr]

Ryan	Aaron	Gillette College	56	89	-33	6' 3"	3rd
Deonte	Alexander	East Mississippi Community College	52	92	-40	6' 1"	HM
Derrell	Armstrong	Allegany College of Maryland	49	97	-48	6' 1"	HM
Charles	Ashford	Vincennes University	50	93	-43	6' 1"	HM
Quintorius	Bivins	Atlanta Metropolitan College	57	88	-31	6' 2"	2nd
Xavier	Blount/Johnson	Cochise College	62	84	-22	6' 4"	2nd
Hauns	Brereton	Western Nebraska Community College	53	88	-35	6' 7"	3rd
Tyler	Brown	Marshalltown Community College	57	82	-25	6' 4"	2nd
Raymond	Cintron	Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College	51	88	-37	6' 1"	2nd
Monterale	Clark	Highland Community College - Illinois	50	94	-44	6' 10"	2nd
Spencer	Coleman	Eastern Arizona College	58	88	-30	6' 7"	HM
Robert	Crawford	Connors State College	55	95	-40	6' 6"	HM
Jeff	Early	Monroe College	57	101	-44	6' 3"	1st
Justin	Edwards	Hillsborough Community College	44	93	-49	6' 8"	HM
Carlos	Emory	Howard College	51	107	-56	6' 7"	1st
Chris	Evans	Wabash Valley College	61	91	-30	6' 7"	1st
Kevin	Foster	College of Central Florida	59	94	-35	6' 7"	3rd
Freddie	Goldstein	Motlow State Community College	52	87	-35	6'	HM
Jayson	Guerrier	Alabama Southern Community College	53	87	-34	6' 4"	HM
Paris	Gulley	Southeastern Community College	57	97	-40	6' 2"	3rd
Michael	Hale III	North Idaho College	55	98	-43	5' 9"	2nd
Deangelo	Haley	Kankakee Community College	54	94	-40	6' 3"	3rd
Carl	Hall	Northwest Florida State College	56	100	-44	6' 8"	1st
Lonnie	Hayes	Missouri State University - West Plains	60	97	-37	6'	1st
Marsell	Holden	San Jacinto College-Central	64	97	-33	5' 11"	1st
Marcus	Hooten	Copiah-Lincoln Community College	38	95	-57	6' 3"	HM
Alfonzo	Hubbard	Salt Lake Community College	59	98	-39	6' 5"	HM
Anthony	Hubbard	Frederick Community College	55	92	-37	6' 5"	2nd
Pierre	Jackson	College of Southern Idaho	69	94	-25	5' 10"	1st
Elliott	Johnson	Highland Community College - Illinois	50	94	-44	6' 7"	HM
Jeremy	Jones	Seward County Community College	60	96	-36	6' 2"	3rd
Philip	Jurick	Chattanooga State Community College	58	83	-25	6' 11"	2nd
Reco	Lewis	Waycross College	48	99	-51	6' 2"	HM
Cheikh	Mbodj	Grayson County College	45	103	-58	6' 9"	HM
Larry	McGaughey	Lawson State Community College	61	89	-28	6' 5"	1st
Tyrus	McGee	Cowley County Community College	55	95	-40	6' 2"	1st
Joe	Mitchell	Hutchinson Community College	56	94	-38	6' 1"	HM
Malcolm	Moore	Tyler Junior College	58	93	-35	6' 7"	3rd
Blake	Nash	Williston State College	56	87	-31	6'	2nd
Hanif	Nixon-Hughes	North Dakota State College of Science	54	87	-33	6' 4"	HM
Quinton	Pippen	Missouri State University - West Plains	60	97	-37	6' 4"	HM
Orlando	Sanchez	Monroe College	57	101	-44	6' 8"	HM
D'Angelo	Scott	Arizona Western College	48	101	-53	6' 7"	3rd
Taylor	Smith	McLennan Community College	53	106	-53	6' 6"	3rd
Tavares	Speaks	Cape Fear Community College	52	92	-40	6' 4"	1st
Dylan	Talley	Blinn College	64	89	-25	6' 5"	HM
Corbin	Thomas	Southwestern Illinois College	51	94	-43	6' 6"	3rd
Alan Michael	Thompson	Brunswick Community College	53	87	-34	6' 2"	HM
Widgett	Washington	Northeastern Junior College	56	85	-29	5' 11"	HM
Corey	Wilford	Connors State College	55	95	-40	6' 1"	2nd

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/04/transfer-murray-or-prep-jarion-henry.html

[willie warrior]

Hey Sultan---make sure that you jump all over Cracked Sidewalks for his position of evaluating personnel based on their stats--after all you cannot take that seriously--you words. His analysis, "..Jordan Latham was a non factor for them.."

Or will you come up with another slam for your lame arguments?

[avid1010]

Hey Sultan---make sure that you jump all over Cracked Sidewalks for his position of evaluating personnel based on their stats--after all you cannot take that seriously--you words. His analysis, "..Jordan Latham was a non factor for them.."

Or will you come up with another slam for your lame arguments?

No one said you can't look at stats.  It's how you look at them that matters.  You say he played in 16 games and average 4.5 mpg and .5ppg.  I doubt you even took the time to see if he had injuries, how many bigs were in front of him, etc.  So while the way you used stats to make it appear MU shouldn't consider him; Cracked Sidewalks used stats to give a picture as to how he faired against the level of competition MU faces.  That said, Willie, answer the question I've posed for you many times.  Should MU dump Jamail Jones because he had similar numbers this year?  Maybe there's more to recruiting than stars and stats because I think Jamail will be a very solid player for MU before it's all said and done.

[GGGG]

Hey Sultan---make sure that you jump all over Cracked Sidewalks for his position of evaluating personnel based on their stats--after all you cannot take that seriously--you words. His analysis, "..Jordan Latham was a non factor for them.."

I said based "solely" on his stats.  Is reading comprehension usually this much of a problem for you?  And like avid says, Jamail had worse stats last year.  You think we should dump him too?

Or are you going to continue to avoid it?

[GGGG]

And let me also add, after looking *behind* the stats, I think Latham should be pretty far down our priority list.  Same with God's Gift.

[brewcity77]

Hey Sultan---make sure that you jump all over Cracked Sidewalks for his position of evaluating personnel based on their stats--after all you cannot take that seriously--you words. His analysis, "..Jordan Latham was a non factor for them.."

Or will you come up with another slam for your lame arguments?

So after you were thoroughly embarrassed on this topic in another thread you want to revisit it? I suppose it takes all kinds.

As far as those JUCOs go, I thought I'd take a look at the JUCO Junction site to see which ones had already committed, though I'm not sure how up-to-date their list is. Anyway, these ones are either still available or weren't listed on their top 150, with links to either their JUCO stats or a worthwhile article:

Ryan Aaron (Unlisted) Only a freshman, not sure if eligible to transfer
Derrell Armstrong (#57) Scoring point gets assists, but also turns it over alot
Charles Ashford (#44) Assist machine, can score, but doesn't seem to need to
Quinn Bivins (Unlisted) Couldn't find much on this kid
Xavier Johnson-Blount (#105)
Hauns Brereton (Unlisted) Being pursued by Hawaii as well as Utah schools
Tyler Brown (#12) Two-time JUCO All-American
Monterale Clark (#19) I'm sure he won't end up here...
Spencer Coleman (Unlisted) Looks like a switchable, not sure we need that this year
Robert Crawford (Unlisted) Another switchable, seemingly
Jeff Early (#42) Combo guard, not sure he fits our need at the point
Jayson Guerrier (Unlisted) Very good at holding on to the ball, might be worth a look
Paris Gulley (Unlisted) Great shooter, but not a natural point
Michael Hale III (#104) Diminutive, but the numbers are great, can score, dish, and keep the ball
Deangelo Hailey (Unlisted) Another scoring guard
Lonnie Hayes (#67) A little turnover-prone, but otherwise looks good
Marsell Holden (#55) Takeover-type scorer, but at 5'11", not sure he runs the point well enough
Alfonzo Hubbard (#106) Good all-around player, but a bit of a 'tweener
Anthony Hubbard (Unlisted) After nearly 4 years in prison, trying to turn his life around
Pierre Jackson (#62) Best player on NJCAA champs, point guard version of Crowder?
Elliott Johnson (Unlisted) Freshman switchable, not sure if eligible yet
Jeremy Jones (Unlisted) Chicago product is the target of a number of high-majors
Philip Jurick (#8) Former 4-star Tennessee commit is a monster down low
Reco Lewis (Unlisted) Can score, shoot, rebound, dish, and steal, worth a look
Cheikh Mbodji (#41) Senegalese power forward has interest from Cincy, Iowa, and Washington
Larry McGaughey (Unlisted) Scoring guard can also block shots, but doesn't dish
Hanif Nixon-Hughes (Unlisted) Point guard with good size, worth a look if eligible
Quinton Pippen (Unlisted) Not a coincidence, he's Scottie's nephew
Orlando Sanchez (Unlisted) The NJCAA leader in blocks
D'Angelo Scott (#99) Do-it-all switchable type
Taylor Smith (Unlisted) Rebounder and shot-blocker
Tavares Speaks (Unlisted) Prolific scoring guard from Raleigh, NC...sounds familiar
Dylan Talley (#25) Do-it-all guard is being pursued by LSU, among others
Corbin Thomas (Unlisted) Scoring, rebounding switchable
Corey Wilford (Unlisted) Small scoring guard

Just a note, while the JUCO Junction site didn't list it, in my research, I found that both Blake Nash (USF) and Widgett Washington (Toledo) have already committed to D1 schools.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Huggy is in pursuit of Jurick...he is reportedly scheduled to visit M-town on 4/15. WVU also interested in Murray.

http://wvillustrated.com/wvubasketball/recruiting

[Dr. Blackheart]

Former 4 Star and MU recruit Roger Franklin is transferring from Ok State. Supposedly wants to get back closer to Dallas...but in play for Buzz? Doesn't really fit a priority need for MU with Jones, Anderson and Ferguson but he is a switchable. 

http://metroplexhoops.com/AnnouncementRetrieve.aspx?ID=69869

[marquette99]

Great run through - brewcity I would say probably cross reference the all-american list with your list because it is the new evaluation, while I believe the juco junction list was from preseason.  For example pierre was only ranked 62nd but seems to be near the top now.  I doubt mu would be appealing for him since junior finished so strong, but I'd love to have him to give us 3 point guards.

[willie warrior]

I said based "solely" on his stats.  Is reading comprehension usually this much of a problem for you?  And like avid says, Jamail had worse stats last year.  You think we should dump him too?

Or are you going to continue to avoid it?

Here we go with your lame arguments again. You did not say "solely". You said "only look at the stats". That is all we have to go on. What I did say was he will not help us and we should pass. Then you started your usual BS. We can agree to disagree--but my point here is that is what Cracked Sidewalks also said, using his stats. You take Latham and keep making his case, I will move on, while you are stuck arguing his potential.

[GGGG]

1. I have never argued *for* Latham.  I just didn't dismiss him by looking at his stat line.

2. Is the crux of your argument really going to be my use of "solely" versus "only?"  I think you may want to bow out of that one.

[Coleman]

 Level of competition is the key to evaluating the rest of the stats


Not to say a good recruit can't come from a bad team, but view the players stats in the context of their competition if signed.

Willie, you are ignoring the entire argument of the Cracked Sidewalks post. It doesn't back up your argument at all. What it is saying is that you have to look at the stats in the context of competition and the team itself. You can't just rely on stats, like you are. You have to look at the team the person is playing for and the level of competition to interpret stats. This principle applies to Latham and Jamail Jones.

[Coleman]

1. I have never argued *for* Latham.  I just didn't dismiss him by looking at his stat line.

2. Is the crux of your argument really going to be my use of "solely" versus "only?"  I think you may want to bow out of that one.

Go back to Notre Dame

[bamamarquettefan]

Well, one of my Lenten resolutions was not to argue with Willie and Goose, so I don't want to do that.

Rather, I would like to affirm that even though I am a stat guy through and through, and that keeps Latham from being near the top of my priority list, I do not believe it disqualifies him from being considered.  I did just expand on the CrackedSidewalks post from this morning, and Latham is 26th on my wish list (keep in mind many ahead of him may have never considered MU so 26th does not mean no way) with the following note:

26. Jordan Latham 6-8 Xavier freshman was a 3-star who didn't break the rotation, but if Buzz believes he would be good with a change of scenary, I wouldn't mind a 6-8 guy with a year of practice against a major program

[GGGG]

Bama...*really* appreciate your research and your list by the way.

[bamamarquettefan]

Thanks!  It is my favorite hobby that I actually find very relaxing and with a killer work travel week ahead of me starting at 4 a.m., this was a lot of fun.  I am sure Buzz will embarrass me and announce someone not on in my top 50 tomorrow though :-) But I'll be travelling so I won't hear about it!

[avid1010]

Bama...*really* appreciate your research and your list by the way.

+1, and I think I'll join in your refuse to argue with Willie and Goose.  I ignore button is now in use.

[bamamarquettefan]

I did get one question off line on how these projected game scores are calculated from Massey, and after responding figured I'd post it here just in case there are two other nerds like me who actually like to figure these things out:

RESPONSE

You are not slow at all, I had to play with this to reverse engineer and figure out what he (Massey) was doing.  The two numbers you need for each team are the number in the Offensive Column and the number in the defensive column.

So for Marquette:
Offense = 92.89
Defense = 20.05

Now to get the hypothetical score for playing another team, you need to start with their same two numbers.  I'm just going to take Marshall because I copy and pasted onto a spreadsheet and so they are below Marquette since my sort is by Division then name:

So for Marshall:
Offense = 88.21
Defense = 16.54

To get the game score, you always SUBTRACT the opponent's defensive score from your offensive score (keep in mind that if the defense is a negative, then you are creating a double negative and actually adding their score, so:

Marquette's predicted game score: 92.89 MINUS 16.54 EQUALS 76.35
Marshall's predicted game score: 88.21 MINUS 20.05 EQUALS 68.16

So you round it to Marquette wins 76-68

Now for the explanation of why this works:

The average game score this year at all levels was 72.31.  So basically this formula says that Marquette scores 20.58 more points a game than the opposing defense would typically allow.  Now of course Marquette doesn't really score 92.89 points per game, but Massey gives the averages if they played all the other basketball teams (JUCOS, NAIA, Division 3, etc.)

The 20.05 means that Marquette would typically allow 20.05 points fewer than the 72.31 average, or 52.26 points per game if they played all the other teams and not just Division 1 teams.  So if MU hypothetically played the other 2,071 teams at all levels then their average game score would be 92.89 to 52.26, but obviously the average game score is much closer playing only Division I schools.

The reason Massey (and Pomeroy and Sagarin) is that they account for something the average person misunderstands.  At first thought, most assume that if a great offense averages scoring 100 points a game, and they face a terrible defense that averages giving up 100 points per game then they would probably score 100 points in the game.  That is not true because they are scoring 100 points a game against AVERAGE defenses, and the terrible defense is averaging giving up 100 points against AVERAGE offenses.  Therefore if the average is 72 points a game like this year, then the great offense is going to typically add 28 points beyond the average and the terrible defense is going to add another 28 points beyond that, so the great offense probably will actually score 56 points above average (128 points) in that game against the terrible defense.

By adding every game played together the links between the teams all add up to a teams true average offense and defense, though of course it changes slightly every game as they score and allow at least slightly more or less than projected.

[MuMark]

Jackson to Baylor

[Dr. Blackheart]

Murray just back from Oklahoma State...DePaul and WVU up next. Huggins met him in Philly prior.

http://twitter.com/rayparrilloinq

[Mobot]

Jarion Henry is likely to commit to New Mexico on Wednesday.  Sounds like he had a great visit over the weekend.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=203&f=2467&t=7415145

[NYWarrior]

Murray to visit MU next weekend it seems

http://twitter.com/#!/CrackedSidewlks/status/57856477125283840

[BrewCity83]

Easter weekend?  Let's hope for some awesome spring weather.

(It can't hurt)

[Dr. Blackheart]

Murray to visit MU next weekend it seems

http://twitter.com/#!/CrackedSidewlks/status/57856477125283840

But, I thought Philly was closed off to Marquette?   

[NersEllenson]

Jarion Henry is likely to commit to New Mexico on Wednesday.  Sounds like he had a great visit over the weekend.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=203&f=2467&t=7415145

Anyone click this link - it was great - Henry tweeted:  New Mexico has some hotties.  LOL.  Pretty sure he'd want to transfer from Marquette if he came here if his priority is hotties.