Third Season Verdict

[silverback]

I certainly didn't come up with this theory, but I've seen it hold up in both college basketball and college football. The third season is often a major indicator of where a coach and a program are headed — or what they already are. This third season will serve that purpose for MU.

It's far from over, but this measuring stick campaign is not promising. As MU moves through Buzz Williams's third go-around, the positives are...

His teams are tough. They don't quit and are difficult to put away. The offense is based on aggressive, high-percentage scoring. He can recruit quick athletes to drive that system.

But, he is not a strong defensive coach. The long-held Marquette tradition of outstanding, shut down defense is dead. No team is made uncomfortable against MU. It is not difficult to score on a Buzz Williams team — nor is it difficult to grab offensive rebounds against MU.  The teams are so obsessed with transition and paint touches, they forget to protect their own rim.

When you add in the bizarre recruiting shenanigans we see every year, (speaking as just one fan who's been going to games since 1974) I don't like where this program is headed right now, but I hope all of Buzz's platitudes and his faith prove me very wrong.

[4everwarriors]

From one old fart to another, the lack of Warrior defense troubles me also. Moreover, I wonder about Buzz' evaluation of talent or does he rely too heavily on the assistant's opinions. How well does he know some of these recruits before they're offered?

[ecompt]

excellent question. He took EwIll and Jamail and then buries them (deservedly) because they can't play defense. Junior and Gardner are overmatched on D also. 

[willie warrior]

How dare you guys criticize In Buzz we trust? Even if we have a bad year, which nobody wants,  it should be chalked up as just that-a bad year. There is not any indicator by that. Remember, Buzz led us to the promised land the last two years, even though he was left with a bare cupboard. And it was not his fault that a few of the recruits did not work out like: Roseboro, Smith, Clark, Mbao, Maymon, Newbill, Cadougan, etc.--after all 40 % of D I men's BB players transfer every year. And it is not his fault that MU missed out on all of its top priorities in the early signing period.

We will perservere this year, because the season is not yet half over, we have about 8 top 25 teams on the schedule with whom we will definitely pick up many quality wins, and our rotation is now permanently set. In Buzz we trust!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Year 3 Verdicts:

>> Coach K:  38-47 for first 3 years and 11-17 in his third.  5th, 6th and 7th place finishes.

>> Calhoun at UCONN (after years at NE where his first 7 years where near .500).  47-46 with Year 3 at 18-13.  8th, 9th and 7th place finishes.

>> Rick Pitino:  (51-32 with Year 3 @ 13-14)

Zero NCAA appearances between them.

Now, has Buzz missed on some recruits, are we waiting on some still to develop, is he still very inexperienced as a head coach (he is the youngest on staff), has he made mistakes, is he too hard headed at times?  Yes. But, the coaching job he did last season may have been one of the best in MU's history with what talent he had inhereted from Crean filled in with some of his JUCO's. He has made the NCAA's twice. Now he has his own players in place--many new to the BE and the school.  

So after losing to four ranked teams, each with multiple players with NBA talent and each with a potential 1st round big, having played the #1 team in the country the best of any team, and losing on the road to the 2nd highest ranked SEC team by one point, and then losing to Wisconsin who just beat the 13th ranked team, and you are ready to have him fired?  No one is happy with the close losses or is making excuses, but you guys need to strap it in a bit for your own sanity   .

[ChicosBailBonds]

Year 3 Verdicts:

>> Coach K:  38-47 for first 3 years and 11-17 in his third.  5th, 6th and 7th place finishes.

>> Calhoun at UCONN (after years at NE where his first 7 years where near .500).  47-46 with Year 3 at 18-13.  8th, 9th and 7th place finishes.

>> Rick Pitino:  (51-32 with Year 3 @ 13-14)

I'm glad you didn't compare him to coaches that started out well in years 1 and 2 and then collapsed, that would have had people ginned up. 

Buzz should be fine, but IMO he needs to get a bit more diverse in his recruiting.  Get a guy or two that can shoot the basketball.  Learn some patience with his rotations which should instill some confidence in his players. Etc, etc

[Dr. Blackheart]

I'm glad you didn't compare him to coaches that started out well in years 1 and 2 and then collapsed, that would have had people ginned up. 

No, I compared him to three active HOF fame coaches who defied the "three year verdict".  Maybe I should compare him to the current I4 coach in his third year?   

[ChicosBailBonds]

No, I compared him to three active HOF fame coaches who defied the "three year verdict".  Maybe I should compare him to the current I4 coach in his third year?  

You could....I always wondered how Buzz would have done in the same scenario with the same restrictions early on (i.e. JUCOs not an answer).

Yes, the three you did compare to are all HOF coaches.  What I would like to see is a comparison of an assistant coach taking over a program that was on a great run (i.e. Bruiser Flint at UMASS, Mike Deane at MU, etc) and had very good players left on the roster...what happens by years 3, 4, 5?  That seems the better comparison to me then the guys you originally compared because they were taking over teams that were on the downs, not already top level teams.  Just my two cents.

All that being said, I honestly think this will be Buzz's toughest year and things should be brighter in the outlying years, IF he can keep the players on his team and convince others to come.  

[Dr. Blackheart]

Yes, Chicos that would be an interesting straw dog if one would have the time.  How about Rick since he inhereted a McD's AA and a NCAA team?

1983-1984 Marquette 17–13   NIT Second Round
1984–1985 Marquette 20–11   NIT Third Round
1985–1986 Marquette 19–11   NIT Second Round
Marquette: 56–35

btw, you quote CTC as not able to recruit JUCO's because of "restrictions", yet he has signed one in every year:  Dumes, Jobe, Michel. 

[NersEllenson]

excellent question. He took EwIll and Jamail and then buries them (deservedly) because they can't play defense. Junior and Gardner are overmatched on D also. 

Any coach would take a Top 100 kid that is willing to sign.  You basically are questioning the merits of 3 freshman (Cadougan in effect is a freshman), Gardner and Jamail.  Erik Williams has talent, tho he might not ever be a starter in the program..he is just a sophomore.

Last thought - only 5 players can play at a time, most coaches don't go with more than an 8 or 9 man rotation...what does this mean??  There are always going to be about 3-5 kids that don't get PT.

[mugrad99]

You could....I always wondered how Buzz would have done in the same scenario with the same restrictions early on (i.e. JUCOs not an answer).

Are you saying Crean couldn't go after JUCO's at IU?   If that's what you are implying, you are wrong. He signed Dumes, and Jobe out of the JUCO ranks.

[NersEllenson]

It's far from over, but this measuring stick campaign is not promising. As MU moves through Buzz Williams's third go-around, the positives are...

His teams are tough. They don't quit and are difficult to put away. The offense is based on aggressive, high-percentage scoring. He can recruit quick athletes to drive that system.

But, he is not a strong defensive coach. The long-held Marquette tradition of outstanding, shut down defense is dead. No team is made uncomfortable against MU. It is not difficult to score on a Buzz Williams team — nor is it difficult to grab offensive rebounds against MU.  The teams are so obsessed with transition and paint touches, they forget to protect their own rim.

When you add in the bizarre recruiting shenanigans we see every year, (speaking as just one fan who's been going to games since 1974) I don't like where this program is headed right now, but I hope all of Buzz's platitudes and his faith prove me very wrong.

MU is very fortunate Buzz Williams fell into its lap.  Period.  MU is not a destination job.  We couldn't get Virginia Commonwealth's coach to interview here (Anthony Grant), nor Tony Bennet, nor Keno Davis, nor Sean Miller (Xavier coach at the time).

MU's defense is going to be fine under Buzz.  He doesn't like stupid fouls, that many times are the result of overaggressive defense (Vander Blue actualy committed a perfect example of one in the Vandy game..45 feet from the basket..compmletely stupid foul..being overagressive..and it put Vandy's point guard on the FT line..where he makes 2 free throws.).  Buzzball 101 says you need to MAKE more free throws than the opposition TAKES.  Therefore..we do NOT fould a lot..most fouls occur on the defensive end.  Though our defensive rating might not be as high..we also aren't in the bottom 1/3rd of NCAA D-1 teams with regard to how much we foul, nor are we in the bottom 1/3rd of teams with regard to free throw margin differential. Tom Crean's MU teams were always in the bottom 1/2, most of the time in the bottom 1/3rd of college teams with regard to how much they fouled, and Free Throw Attempts disparity.  Hard to win basketball games when you send the other team to the Free Throw line 10-15 more times per game.  Vandy actually out attempted MU at the line..which is an anamoly under Buzz.

[Pakuni]

Are you saying Crean couldn't go after JUCO's at IU?   If that's what you are implying, you are wrong. He signed Dumes, and Jobe out of the JUCO ranks.

Along with Guy Marc-Michel.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Yes, Chicos that would be an interesting straw dog if one would have the time.  How about Rick since he inhereted a McD's AA and a NCAA team?

1983-1984 Marquette 17–13   NIT Second Round
1984–1985 Marquette 20–11   NIT Third Round
1985–1986 Marquette 19–11   NIT Second Round
Marquette: 56–35

btw, you quote CTC as not able to recruit JUCO's because of "restrictions", yet he has signed one in every year:  Dumes, Jobe, Michel. 

The restrictions were early on, as I've stated here many times before.  They wanted to clear the decks first.  This is why Dumes wasn't an issue because he was a DI player first before transferring to a JUCO.

Dumes played year one at Eastern Michigan then transferred to a JUCO...he didn't start as a JUCO.

Michel and Jobe were both foreign players that were at a JUCO for a reason.....the Gonzaga stashing of Michel is a good story on background.  They had him stashed in Idaho hoping to have him for this year.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Are you saying Crean couldn't go after JUCO's at IU?  

Early on, that's correct.  High scrutiny for every kid they were bringing in, VERY HIGH.  

Indee, you a football season ticket holder?  They're putting together a nice staff.  Great to see Mark Hagen added.  Mark and I were at IU together.  Great player and did a wonderful job at Purdue as Linebackers coach.  Good to see them get the Mallory's kid involved along with the Boise State WR coach.

[mugrad99]

There were not restrictions put on Crean in terms of JUCO's versus non Juco's.  I know this for a fact.  Each recruit was scrutinzed  by the administration regardless of where they came from. No one knows for sure, but my sources tell me there was not one player that Crean was going after was denied admittance.


As far as Hagen, he and my business partner were roommates, and played at IU at the same time. Good dude. The new coach is getting quite the staff.  When you get down to IU next, you need to see the football suite. Largest in the country.

[ChicosBailBonds]

There were not restrictions put on Crean in terms of JUCO's versus non Juco's.  I know this for a fact.  Each recruit was scrutinzed  by the administration regardless of where they came from. No one knows for sure, but my sources tell me there was not one player that Crean was going after was denied admittance.

Well, then a few IU athletic department people are either incorrect or lying as there were several names floated which they indicate they could not go after and to move on until the ship was righted.  Either that, or we're parsing words here because what I was told is there were some players the staff was told not even to think about from day one.  As a result, they may not have ever made your sources list of "not one player that Crean was going after was denied admittance."  If you're told you cannot go after X, Y, and Z at all, then that would be the case.

I may be getting down there next year, a friend on Senator Lugar's staff has invited me down.

[rocky_warrior]

It's far from over, but this measuring stick campaign is not promising.

In a very chicos-esque move, I think I'll wait until it's over before getting out my measuring stick.

[4everwarriors]

Did I just read correctly that ZFFB wants Buzz to recruit more white players?

[Marquette84]

Year 3 Verdicts:

>> Coach K:  38-47 for first 3 years and 11-17 in his third.  5th, 6th and 7th place finishes.

>> Calhoun at UCONN (after years at NE where his first 7 years where near .500).  47-46 with Year 3 at 18-13.  8th, 9th and 7th place finishes.

>> Rick Pitino:  (51-32 with Year 3 @ 13-14)

Zero NCAA appearances between them. 

I think you're stretching.  First, you're citing previous low-major experience.  Rick Pitino wasn't 13-14 at Providence or Kentucky--you're using his Boston Univ. record.  Ditto with Calhoun at Northeastern and Coach K at Army. When those coaches were hired at a high major, they performed right away.

MU is not comparable to BU, Army or Northeastern.  We are closer to Louisville, Providence or Duke, and should expect that a coach coming in doesn't have to suffer through a five year learning curve--that should have already taken place.

We chose to elevate a current assistant--similar to what happened at Gonzaga, Syracuse, Xavier, Pitt, and MSU.  Each of these five programs elevated a current assistant to the head coaching job.  Each excelled out the gate (with the talent inherited from the former head coach).  But more importantly, each coach IMPROVED in his 3rd season over his first--even though much of the talent recruited by his predecessor started to leave and the new coach's recruits became an ever increasing part of the program.

>>Jamie Dixon  @Pitt:  76-22 over his first three years, and 25-8 in his third, 4th in the Big East.
>>Sean Miller @Xavier:  63-32 overall, 25-9 & NCAA in his 3rd season.  Also elevated from assistant, like Buzz.
>>Tom Izzo @MSU  55-36 first three seasons at MSU, 22-8, sweet 16 and 1st place in the Big Ten his third season.  
>>Jim Boeheim @Syracuse 74-13 across 3 seasons, 26-4 in his 3rd year.  NCAA Sweet 16.
>>Mark Few @Gonzaga 81-20, 29-4 in his 3rd season.

Buzz, with one year of prior D1 head coaching under his belt, had more experience at the time of his hire than any of these five.  Hell, than all five combined.

Yet nobody in Pittsburgh, for example, was complaining in Dixon's third season about an NIT bid, or making excuses that he's done pretty good for a new coach and should be excused for a sub-par season, or that Howland left the cupboard bare after Aaron Gray asked out of his LOI and Carl Krauser transferred after his freshman year because of the coaching transition.
  

[mu-rara]

But, he is not a strong defensive coach. The long-held Marquette tradition of outstanding, shut down defense is dead. No team is made uncomfortable against MU. It is not difficult to score on a Buzz Williams team — nor is it difficult to grab offensive rebounds against MU.  The teams are so obsessed with transition and paint touches, they forget to protect their own rim.

Please DO NOT start a Buzz vs Crean thing here, but there were some years where TCs perimeter defense was horrid, and we were all over it on this board.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I think you're stretching.  First, you're citing previous low-major experience.  Rick Pitino wasn't 13-14 at Providence or Kentucky--you're using his Boston Univ. record.  Ditto with Calhoun at Northeastern and Coach K at Army. When those coaches were hired at a high major, they performed right away.
  

I am quoting Coach K's record at Duke and Calhoun's at UCONN to clarify from your post in order to match the Buzz comparison (high majors, 2nd gig like Buzz).  I could not go to year 3 at Providence for Pitino as he moved on.  So, I am not stretching at all but providing an antithesis to "The Third Season Verdict" that was proposed.  Some folks here apparently would have fired some of the winningest coaches of all time after Year 3--along with Buzz and Crean in their 2nd head coaching jobs.  

btw, I would say that all the assistant coaches you mentioned walked into a pretty sweet spot in terms of what they followed and were long-time assistants in many cases (or longer than nine months).  And, yes, Dixon was under the gun in Year 3 by the Pitt fan base.  

[Lennys Tap]

There were not restrictions put on Crean in terms of JUCO's versus non Juco's.  I know this for a fact.  Each recruit was scrutinzed  by the administration regardless of where they came from. No one knows for sure, but my sources tell me there was not one player that Crean was going after was denied admittance.

No restrictions on jucos and you know this for a FACT. None of his targets denied admittance. Thank God we can finally put to rest the myths perpetrated by Chicos and his "inside sources" about handcuffs, etc.

[Daniel]

From my point of view, Buzz has brought in some very good talent in his tenure so far.  Some of the "top" talen, as happens so many times, are playing at a lower level than expected.  Is it coaching? Talent? A combination? Who knows?  Junior is playing below expectations, Jones we don;t know, but slow on defense, etc etc.  

His third year evaluation? We have Otule playing better than everm with lots of need for inmprovement on the baords and defense - but he blocked a bunch of shots early int he season and I think will adjust to the better teams.  We have been in every game this year, against some VERY good teams where the naysayers would say we didn't even belong in the game.

How Buzz finishes off the recruiting for next year will be key.  The talent he has on the team, and the potential talent on the team, is deeper than we have had.  That alone is tough to keep kids happy these days because they all think they are going to the NBA asap.  Buzz is not defense focused?  I think he is - our team/players have not executed well.  Some may be strategy, like double teaming and trapping and leaving a 3 point shooter open; some may be talent not yet developed.  We have a YOUNG team.  Young.  And we do not have a "natural" leader on the team.  Given all this, we lost 4 games to very good teams, and we were in every one of them.  Had DJO shot better, had this or that happened, hit a few FTs, etc. On and on.

We can only get better this year - we have played marginally so far and we have been in the games agiasnt top teams.  So the upside is huge.

My evaluation so far.?  Chill out, hang tough.  Let's see how the Big East goes over the next few weeks.  Yes, we DO need to win some of these close games.  And I think we will.

[avid1010]

Well, then a few IU athletic department people are either incorrect or lying as there were several names floated which they indicate they could not go after and to move on until the ship was righted.  Either that, or we're parsing words here because what I was told is there were some players the staff was told not even to think about from day one.  As a result, they may not have ever made your sources list of "not one player that Crean was going after was denied admittance."  If you're told you cannot go after X, Y, and Z at all, then that would be the case.

I may be getting down there next year, a friend on Senator Lugar's staff has invited me down.

I have a friend with some "inside info" down there as well.  I think your right as far as saying TC didn't go after them....in other words they never made his short list (which is never really that short).  From what I understand there weren't many denied, and they weren't high level talent (top 100). 

Hope you get to meet the Senator....he's a great man.  Wish he could have gotten the DREAM Act through.