Buzz in LA Monday

[79Warrior]

Buzz was very candid at the event in LA.

We are going to have a few more signings and he said some of the current players signed will not be coming in. Very interesting comments as to why he has signed so many guys with the intention some will not enroll. buzz went on to say the guys know who they are and it is not a suprise.

He also said Roseboro left because his dad is seriously ill. He was not run off, contrary to reports.

JB was singed sight unseen by Buzz. That was something I was not aware of. He was touted by his coach and Buzz signed him.

He addressed the Big 10 issue. If Rutgers go, who cares. If Rutgers and a few opthes go it will have a negative impact on MU. The BE has been very good financially to MU. There are so many scenarios it is hard to quantify until it happens.

Recruiting is a dirty business. VERY few programs are on the up and up.

Buzz talked and took questions for over 90 minutes and then stayed after to chat with folks. Solid turnout in LA.

Buzz said campus visits are totally overrated and add almost no value. 48 hours anywhere will not convince a kid to go anywhere. Interesting take.

[Golden Avalanche]

Wow.

After sitting on this for a bit, I have further thoughts:

1) "some" of the current players signed -- wonder if that's one or two or three? Also, honesty alone doesn't make it right.

2) I call bullshiznit on Roseboro. You wouldn't get one ounce of bad PR if this was case, no matter when the prospect left. And, when his coach was ripping MU he didn't mention one word of a sick father. And, St. Bonnie's isn't exactly close to Quakertown. In fact, it's a pain in the ass to travel between. Perhaps the father has become ill in the meantime.

3) Interesting on Butler as some had claimed that Buzz certainly knew who he was having seen Fulce play. We knew Butler didn't visit campus but its news to learn Buzz had never seen him play.

4) He's right on the Big East.

5) He's also right about recruiting but interesting nonetheless he brought it up publicly -- especially in light of the word traveling around with the Dawson recruitment.

[KipsBayEagle]

Buzz was very candid at the event in LA.

We are going to have a few more signings and he said some of the current players signed will not be coming in. Very interesting comments as to why he has signed so many guys with the intention some will not enroll. buzz went on to say the guys know who they are and it is not a suprise.

He also said Roseboro left because his dad is seriously ill. He was not run off, contrary to reports.

JB was singed sight unseen by Buzz. That was something I was not aware of. He was touted by his coach and Buzz signed him.

He addressed the Big 10 issue. If Rutgers go, who cares. If Rutgers and a few opthes go it will have a negative impact on MU. The BE has been very good financially to MU. There are so many scenarios it is hard to quantify until it happens.

Recruiting is a dirty business. VERY few programs are on the up and up.

Buzz talked and took questions for over 90 minutes and then stayed after to chat with folks. Solid turnout in LA.

Buzz said campus visits are totally overrated and add almost no value. 48 hours anywhere will not convince a kid to go anywhere. Interesting take.

This is sung to a very different tune than the other post.  One says he refused to comment on any of this, the other has him spilling his guts out.

[wyoMUfan]

always record....always record...

I'd like to hear all that from the horses mouth

[4everwarriors]

Ah, I hope I'm wrong, but anyone else getting an upset stomach thinking about the unmentioned signee who won't be coming? I hope it's red or white, and not -------!

[KipsBayEagle]

Ah, I hope I'm wrong, but anyone else getting an upset stomach thinking about the unmentioned signee who won't be coming? I hope it's red or white, and not -------!

If it's Blue, their playing it offly close to the chest.  You would think someone would have grabbed a hold of that info by now.

[Aughnanure]

Yeah seriously?  Two threads about the same event with two completely different takes?

Im thinking something in between the perception in the two threads i true, but why cant Buzz just focus on 2011. Im really happy with our class and cant imagine getting any recruit stronger than what we already have, except for maybe Noreen.

This is getting kind of ridiculous, there better be some good reasons why some of these wont be at Marquette next year. I still have all the trust in Buzz, but is any other school doing this..at least as talking as openly and obviously about it? Im starting to think this is a sick ploy by Buzz to keep us all on edge and obsessed with Marquette basketball over the summer.

[Lennys Tap]

IF Buzz really said MU is going to sign a "few" (3?) more players and that "some" (3-4?) of the 5 originally signed aren't coming that's quite a scoop.

[MUfan12]

Ah, I hope I'm wrong, but anyone else getting an upset stomach thinking about the unmentioned signee who won't be coming? I hope it's red or white, and not -------!

Not worried at all. Blue has been at MU just about every weekend since the season ended. If he wasn't coming, I doubt he'd be here that much.

[willie warrior]

IF Buzz really said MU is going to sign a "few" (3?) more players and that "some" (3-4?) of the 5 originally signed aren't coming that's quite a scoop.

It has not happened yet--but if there is more than 1 not coming, and it has noithing to do with academics, then I would say there better be a lot of questions asked of the staff, and plenty of straight forward answers.

[MU B2002]

Ah, I hope I'm wrong, but anyone else getting an upset stomach thinking about the unmentioned signee who won't be coming? I hope it's red or white, and not -------!

FWIW

Based on his "Tweets" he is coming, and arriving to campus in July.  

I can't believe I just used twitter as a reference for info, I feel so young and hip.  He has also been chatting with others about when they are arriving.

[Aughnanure]

Ah, I hope I'm wrong, but anyone else getting an upset stomach thinking about the unmentioned signee who won't be coming? I hope it's red or white, and not -------!

Blue is the one I would be most shocked at as he is always seen around MU hanging out with Jimmy Butler and other players. Jamail Jones is the one I am most scared of losing. But then again, weren't all four incoming freshmen on campus a few weeks ago? If they sign say 2 more, the best option we have is that Gardner and Smith/Newbill go to prep school for some reason and that Mbao transfers (all options I dont want, bu the best way not to lose any).

I dont like speculation but if Gardner was still waiting for his scores the day he signed and the some of the Smith rumors are somewhat true then this at least makes partially some sense. I still dont like it. Although a 2011 class of a more mature Gardener and Smith would be a good start and maybe Buzz can go all out to fill the final slot with Branden Dawson (pleasssseee!!)

[MarkCharles]

JB was singed sight unseen by Buzz. That was something I was not aware of. He was touted by his coach and Buzz signed him.

This may be a silly question, but who is JB?

[Hards Alumni]

This may be a silly question, but who is JB?

James Butler, of course.

[Tugg Speedman]

Yeah seriously?  Two threads about the same event with two completely different takes?

I'm really starting to worry about the value of An MU education as many here have a serious reading comprehension problem.  Both threads are covering different topics.

In the thread "In Buzz I trust" Muole talked about how inspirational Buzz was when he talked.  He wrote about how impressed he was and how he was a good guy.  Nothing of substance regarding recruiting was noted.

In that thread I asked if Buzz was asked about over-signing.  This brought out the brilliant posters like Sultan saying that Buzz would never answer a question like this and it was stupid to even ask the question.

Then in this thread 79 Warrior says Buzz did answer all the questions I wanted him to ask and Sultan was wrong.

This brought out more with read comprehension problems like Hards_Alumni who apparently did not read anything that has been written here and assumed I was dead wrong even though I repeated what 79 said.

So their is not conflict between the two threads, they cover different subjects.  Buzz answered my question here with what 79 Warrior wrote:

We are going to have a few more signings and he said some of the current players signed will not be coming in.

Because of the read comprehension problems let me restate this ... according to Buzz (as 79 wrote it) more than one signed Freshman is not coming.  Note the (s) at the end of "Current players"  It was not singular suggesting more than one.

Rumors have been that Reggie Smith was going to prep school.  It sounds like another might also be going to prep school.

Funny what you learn when you actually read and comprehend what is written.

[MU B2002]

(removed to save space)
This brought out more with read comprehension problems like Hards_Alumni who apparently did not read anything that has been written here and assumed I was dead wrong even though I repeated what 79 said.

(removed to save space)
Funny what you learn when you actually read and comprehend what is written.

I assumed Hards was talking to 79warrior when he said "uhmm... did you read his post?" (and the post in reference was yours)

But maybe my reading comprehension skills are underdeveloped.

[mu_hilltopper]

Screw the speculation.  What was his phone# and email address?  Let's call him!

[Canadian Dimes]

He addressed the Big 10 issue. If Rutgers go, who cares. If Rutgers and a few opthes go it will have a negative impact on MU. The BE has been very good financially to MU. There are so many scenarios it is hard to quantify until it happens.


Buzz is clearly an idiot...what is his phone number so MUHOOPS1 can call him and tell him how devastating the loss of Rutgers will be.

[TallTitan34]

It's impossible to say if Rutgers leaving would be devistating or not until everything plays out. 

It could be a huge loss if they were replaced by a crappier school or no school at all.  It also could be a huge gain if they could be replaced by a Boston College or Maryland.

There's no way of knowing until all of the dominos fall.

[Hards Alumni]

I assumed Hards was talking to 79warrior when he said "uhmm... did you read his post?" (and the post in reference was yours)

But maybe my reading comprehension skills are underdeveloped.

spot on.

It's okay, the mighty AnotherMU84 need not practice what he doth preach.

[79Warrior]

Ah, I hope I'm wrong, but anyone else getting an upset stomach thinking about the unmentioned signee who won't be coming? I hope it's red or white, and not -------!

It is not Blue. Blue was the first guy Buzz mentioned headlining the incoming class.

[79Warrior]

This is sung to a very different tune than the other post.  One says he refused to comment on any of this, the other has him spilling his guts out.

Well, I was there and he did comment. I have not clue who this opther dude was you are referring to but he must have had earplugs.

[Clam Crowder]

Jones and Blue both seem pretty happy to be coming here. Using facebook as someone used twitter Jamil will be here pretty soon. I believe May 23rd according to a recent fb post. Vander is the same way. The top 2 guys right there I am not worried about. Jae Crowder is an interesting one. He definitely is stressing about his finals and grades. Looking at some FB statuses tho his grades are going well. Top 3 guys are gonna be here come next year

[Tigidal]

Def not Blue, Crowder, or Jones... All have been active in recent days on FB and Twitter about how pumped they are to be coming to MU, and how they're counting the days...

Blue: "They show me alot of love here so I show it back Loviin MU n really can get use to this...."

Crowder: "** TO ALL MY [MU] FANS ILL BE IN [MIL TOWN] NEXT FRIDAY.. WORKOUTS IN THE A.M @ 6.. LOVE THE SORE FEELING AFTER YOU GET DONE WORKING OUT!! FOLLOW ME @ CJC32BOSS @ TWITTER **"

Jones: "countdown is still going!! 17 days left till milwaukee.."

[Clam Crowder]

Def not Blue, Crowder, or Jones... All have been active in recent days on FB and Twitter about how pumped they are to be coming to MU, and how they're counting the days...

Blue: "They show me alot of love here so I show it back Loviin MU n really can get use to this...."

Crowder: "** TO ALL MY [MU] FANS ILL BE IN [MIL TOWN] NEXT FRIDAY.. WORKOUTS IN THE A.M @ 6.. LOVE THE SORE FEELING AFTER YOU GET DONE WORKING OUT!! FOLLOW ME @ CJC32BOSS @ TWITTER **"

Jones: "countdown is still going!! 17 days left till milwaukee.."

+1

[esotericmindguy]

So basically the 3 "important" recruits are coming to MU, that's good....I also would be surprised to see Smith not come do to the lack of PGs on the team.  I know Blue may develop into one at some point but opportunity for minutes is there.

Also, Gardner's coach say he's waiting on test scores? I guess that means he didn't qualify....

[muole]

i was at the event and I got the impression that it wasn't NECESSARILY one of the incoming recruits that wouldn't be on the team in the fall.  He seemed to intimate that one or more players on the current roster wouldn't be on the roster come midnight madness.  that could include players that were on the team last year.

it's all speculation at this point.

[Boone]

Well, that certainly changes the complexion of things. At this stage, I'd rather lose an Mbao than another incoming recruit. 

[4everwarriors]

Anyone been checking EWill's Twitter or Facebook?

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Anyone been checking EWill's Twitter or Facebook?

He said something about you leaving him alone, he's no homo.

[Doris Burkes Thong]

Erik Williams' latest facebook status: **Declaring for NBA draft and will sign Tim Maymon as my agent***

[Doctor V]

He said something about you leaving him alone, he's no homo.

haha classic. well played

[GGGG]

He addressed the Big 10 issue. If Rutgers go, who cares. If Rutgers and a few opthes go it will have a negative impact on MU. The BE has been very good financially to MU. There are so many scenarios it is hard to quantify until it happens.


Buzz is clearly an idiot...what is his phone number so MUHOOPS1 can call him and tell him how devastating the loss of Rutgers will be.

The issue isn't so much the loss of Rutgers...it is whether or not Big Ten expansion leads to some sort of consolidation that leaves the BE oon the fringes of major college athletics.  IOW, MU may not have to settle for a mid-major type conference...but the BE may become one if it can't generate enough revenue.

[GGGG]

Oh and can we please stop the "we won't miss Rutgers because they suck as basketball" type talk?

That's not the point.  The point is the markets...and Rutgers is a large, public university smack dab in the middle of a very large television market.  The BE will miss Rutgers regardless of how good they are at basketball.

[79Warrior]

Oh and can we please stop the "we won't miss Rutgers because they suck as basketball" type talk?

That's not the point.  The point is the markets...and Rutgers is a large, public university smack dab in the middle of a very large television market.  The BE will miss Rutgers regardless of how good they are at basketball.

Rutgers football program would be a blow to the conference if they left. That would leave the oter football schools in a quandry. And Maryland will never come to the BE, whoever started that nonsense.

[79Warrior]

 I fogot to mention that USC will not be on the schedule this season. It could not be worked out. Buzz said maybe 2011-12 season.

[GOMU1104]

I fogot to mention that USC will not be on the schedule this season. It could not be worked out. Buzz said maybe 2011-12 season.

If true...damn.

[mu_hilltopper]

...and Rutgers is a large, public university smack dab in the middle of a very large television market.  The BE will miss Rutgers regardless of how good they are at basketball.

Here's my curiosity .. what are the current ratings for a typical Rutgers BBall or Football game? 

There's all this talk about markets for various teams, but in the end, it all has to do with how many eyeballs are watching the TV when the team is on.   DePaul is in Chicago, the 3rd biggest market in the country.  A DePaul game doesn't deliver 3.5 million TV sets.  Maybe 3.5 thousand.

Just curious.  Maybe people in the greater Rutgers area think watching their games is the cats' meow.  I'm guessing not.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Here's my curiosity .. what are the current ratings for a typical Rutgers BBall or Football game? 

There's all this talk about markets for various teams, but in the end, it all has to do with how many eyeballs are watching the TV when the team is on.   DePaul is in Chicago, the 3rd biggest market in the country.  A DePaul game doesn't deliver 3.5 million TV sets.  Maybe 3.5 thousand.

Just curious.  Maybe people in the greater Rutgers area think watching their games is the cats' meow.  I'm guessing not.

it's not the ratings for cable and the ad revenue that the shows bring in, it's the monthly fee per subscriber that they charge that makes their money.  therefore, it doesn't matter how many people are watching a UW/Iowa men's volleyball game, the BTN is still making $$.

[GGGG]

it's not the ratings for cable and the ad revenue that the shows bring in, it's the monthly fee per subscriber that they charge that makes their money.  therefore, it doesn't matter how many people are watching a UW/Iowa men's volleyball game, the BTN is still making $$.

Correct.  And my guess is that they will not be able to charge the cable companies the same rate in New Jersey as in the midwest, but since the variable cost of adding programming in new markets is darn close to zero, the conference will likely still make more money per school.

[ChicosBailBonds]

And Maryland will never come to the BE, whoever started that nonsense.

Hmm, I wonder who started that nonsense.........oh, nevermind.  Hayward being Hayward.

[ChicosBailBonds]

it's not the ratings for cable and the ad revenue that the shows bring in, it's the monthly fee per subscriber that they charge that makes their money.  therefore, it doesn't matter how many people are watching a UW/Iowa men's volleyball game, the BTN is still making $$.

That is correct.  The advertising model, though still strong, is not the driver here anymore.  It's the guaranteed revenues from subscription fees that the networks make most of the money on now.

[mugrad99]

But the BTN gets 88 cents per cable/dish subscriber in the Midwest, and 6 cents in not Big Ten markets. If you Bump up New Jersey/New York to 88cents, thats a boatload of cash.

[mileskishnish72]

I think 4ever has a point - what is known about EWill's state of mind? He didn't get minutes, and didn't exactly shine when he did. It could be tough for a top 100 prospect to deal with. Is he a worker? Or might he be thinking things might be better elsewhere?

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

But the BTN gets 88 cents per cable/dish subscriber in the Midwest, and 6 cents in not Big Ten markets. If you Bump up New Jersey/New York to 88cents, thats a boatload of cash.

The Dolans and Cablevision will just pay that amount.

[MarquetteDano]

But the BTN gets 88 cents per cable/dish subscriber in the Midwest, and 6 cents in not Big Ten markets. If you Bump up New Jersey/New York to 88cents, thats a boatload of cash.

Albeit its small, but the thought that some 60 year old woman retiree from California living in Hawaii pays $0.72 a year to the Big Ten each year is almost comical.  I know Chicos says a la carte will be bad for many people but it just doesn't seem right to me (not just channels like BTN).  However, I don't think its right the people who could give a S^^^ about sports have to pay for it.

[Pakuni]

But the BTN gets 88 cents per cable/dish subscriber in the Midwest, and 6 cents in not Big Ten markets. If you Bump up New Jersey/New York to 88cents, thats a boatload of cash.

Assuming cable/dish providers choose to include the BTN in those markets, which is no sure thing.

[Litehouse]

The Big Ten also had to wage a massive public relations campaign urging people to call their cable companies to demand the BTN.  That worked in the midwest because a large enough percentage of people are interested in their local state school.  I'm not sure they would have the same result in NY/NJ.

[ChicosBailBonds]

But the BTN gets 88 cents per cable/dish subscriber in the Midwest, and 6 cents in not Big Ten markets. If you Bump up New Jersey/New York to 88cents, thats a boatload of cash.

Curious where you got those numbers?

[Nukem2]

Curious where you got those numbers?

Even if assuming the numbers are correct, doubt that the Big11 Network woul get anywhere near the larger number....?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Albeit its small, but the thought that some 60 year old woman retiree from California living in Hawaii pays $0.72 a year to the Big Ten each year is almost comical.  I know Chicos says a la carte will be bad for many people but it just doesn't seem right to me (not just channels like BTN).  However, I don't think its right the people who could give a S^^^ about sports have to pay for it.

That's why most sports are on sports tiers to try and avoid that hit to customers (of course, the sports channels scream bloody murder and that can lead to all kinds of fun).  Look at it this way, Congress has said for years they want a la carte pricing but when they truly sit down and understand the ramifications they back off each time.

They don't want to be responsible for killing about 100 channels as a result of a la carte.  While they would create "choice", the would reduce choice at the exact same time because the smaller channels could not survive.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Even if assuming the numbers are correct, doubt that the Big11 Network woul get anywhere near the larger number....?

I believe those numbers are low which is why I asked.  There are different tiers that MSO's pay, as Indee correctly points out.  An operator in Florida isn't going to pay the rack rate of a MSO in East Lansing.

That being said, those numbers don't look right based on all the data I've seen.  That's why I'm curious if it was in an article or some analyst taking a wild guess, etc.

[mugrad99]

I'll look for more...

http://www.annarbor.com/sports/um-football/big-ten-could-make-a-big-splash-with-expansion/

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'll look for more...

http://www.annarbor.com/sports/um-football/big-ten-could-make-a-big-splash-with-expansion/

Thanks...yes, looks like an analyst (Kagan in this instance) is making that assumption.  It looks like they are using a blended avg for that pricing estimate.  The $0.06 is probably pretty close, it's the $0.88 that I'm having trouble reconciling in the 8 state Big Ten area.  I believe that amount is understated.

[MarquetteDano]

That's why most sports are on sports tiers to try and avoid that hit to customers (of course, the sports channels scream bloody murder and that can lead to all kinds of fun).  Look at it this way, Congress has said for years they want a la carte pricing but when they truly sit down and understand the ramifications they back off each time.

They don't want to be responsible for killing about 100 channels as a result of a la carte.  While they would create "choice", the would reduce choice at the exact same time because the smaller channels could not survive.

Definitely against government forcing a la carte pricing via laws.  If the market demands it, it will happen.  If people don't demand it economically, then it shouldn't happen.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'll look for more...

http://www.annarbor.com/sports/um-football/big-ten-could-make-a-big-splash-with-expansion/

After more investigation, the numbers are actually very close.  MFNs were triggered after the cable guys finally bought in which I had forgotten about.  Once those MFNs kicked in, those numbers are actually a little HIGH, but not by much.  That will give you an idea of what a BEN would be, which is less than the BTN in terms of carriage.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Definitely against government forcing a la carte pricing via laws.  If the market demands it, it will happen.  If people don't demand it economically, then it shouldn't happen.

There is a new service that is trying it, but on a very limited scale.  They let you create your own package but they only have about 50 channels to choose from.  It will be interesting to see if they gain any traction.  So while they offer choice, it's so limited that for all intent and purposes, they really aren't offering any choice at all.

[Litehouse]

I'm curious about the actual subscriber fees and numbers of subscribers also.  Here's an article on Echostar/Dish signing up for $1 in the Big Ten region, $0.10 everywhere else.
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/114766

A poster on an Iowa State message board did a fairly comprehensive summary of all the various deals.  Some at $1, some at $0.70, DirecTV and Dish at $0.10.
http://www.cyclonefanatic.com/forum/state-rivals/58162-big-ten-network-revenue.html

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'm curious about the actual subscriber fees and numbers of subscribers also.  Here's an article on Echostar/Dish signing up for $1 in the Big Ten region, $0.10 everywhere else.
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/114766

A poster on an Iowa State message board did a fairly comprehensive summary of all the various deals.  Some at $1, some at $0.70, DirecTV and Dish at $0.10.
http://www.cyclonefanatic.com/forum/state-rivals/58162-big-ten-network-revenue.html

Yes, but as I mentioned above, MFNs kick in which right size the contracts for others.  As an example, someone pays $1.20 for in market and $0.15 for out of market.  But 2 months later, a large cable company gets a better deal at $1.00 and $0.12.  The MFN  (Most Favored Nation clause) kicks in and readjusts the original deal by the first MSO down.

Now, you can imagine that programmers despise MFNs and MSOs (the distributors) love them.  They provide protection to the MSOs.    MFNs do not exist in all contracts, they are negotiated for.

An interesting dance to be sure.

[Litehouse]

All of these numbers make me skeptical of the reported $22M each school is getting.  For a back-of-the-napkin calculation, assuming $1/month per subscriber (is probably high based on these numbers), and the BTN website reports 40M subscribers.

40M x $1/subscriber/month x 12 months = $480 Million

$480M / 2 = $240 Million  (since it's half owned by Fox and the Big Ten)

$240 M / 11 schools = $21.8 Million per school

These numbers are estimated on the high side ($1/subscriber/month) and don't include any expenses or advertising revenue.  I can't imagine advertising revenue is that much, since 90% of the commercials on the BTN are infomercials for the schools.  The costs involved with starting and running an entire network, producing games, etc. have to be substantial, which would significantly eat into profits.

If you drop the ammount/subscriber to $0.70/month, which was reported in some of the deals, then it drops to $15.27 Million per school, which is still excluding expenses and advertising revenue.  That's still a lot of money, but not the $22M they're talking about.

Also, I don't know how they calculate the 40 Million subscribers.  I added all the DMA's in the Big Ten states and came up with about 28 Million (that includes Philadelphia and St. Louis).
http://www.tvb.org/rcentral/markettrack/us_hh_by_dma.asp
So maybe they get $1/subscriber for those 28 Million and $0.10 for the other 12 Million

28M x $1/subscriber/month x 12 months = $336 Million
12M x $0.10 x 12 = $14 Million

$350M / 2 = $175 Million  (since it's half owned by Fox and the Big Ten)

$175 M / 11 schools = $15.9 Million per school (not including any expenses or advertising)

Again, $15.9M is still a lot of money, but not $22M.

[GOO]

I think the total TV package is around 22M per team (ESPN, BTN, CBS, etc; and this may include radio and some other revenue, not sure).  The BTN adds somewhere around 9 million or so per school, or at least that is what I read from one of the more credible articles that I came across a few weeks ago.  The 22M is total, and part of the 22M is the BTN. 
Just repeating what I've read from someone who seemed to actually have a handle on this, but I can't find the article now.