Big Ten Supposedly Accelerates Expansion Timeline

[GGGG]

http://tinyurl.com/y6bq937

"Remember the talk that the Big Ten would take 12-18 months to decide whether to expand?

An accelerated timetable has emerged, according to sources familiar with the process.

High-ranking Big Ten representatives will meet Sunday afternoon in Washington D.C. to discuss expansion. The timing and location of the session make sense considering the Association of American Universities is holding its semi-annual meetings in D.C. from Sunday-Tuesday, and all 11 Big Ten schools are AAU members.

...

If the league can emerge from the D.C. meetings with a mandate to expand, commissioner Jim Delany could take a substantial step next week at the annual BCS meetings, outside Phoenix."

[Dawson Rental]

Good.  Let's get this underway, so we all know what's what and us "other" conferences can stop living in the future of what might be.  It'll be interesting to see if the Big Ten action will have the same seismic effect this time around.

[brewcity77]

I guess the question becomes whom all we might lose. I'd have to think they will only add schools that have both football and basketball. And I can't see any possible way they get Notre Dame, simply because I'm not sure they can match the money the Irish currently get off their NBC contract.

I know I've heard Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse mentioned in the past. Just saw UConn's name pop up in an article as well. I suppose West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida would also all be viable targets for them. Largely, it comes down to how many teams they want. A 12 team league would likely leave us mostly untouched, but if they go to 16, we could see 3-5 teams leave.

Any ideas about what the Big East might do in response? Possibly go after teams like Memphis, Butler, Kent State, Old Dominion, and other successful mid-majors with moderate enrollments? Not sure what the sizes are of all the current BE schools, but I'm guessing us and Seton Hall are probably two of the smallest, as far as enrollment goes.

[wadefan#1]

This could be awful for the Big East.

[Dawson Rental]

I guess the question becomes whom all we might lose. I'd have to think they will only add schools that have both football and basketball. And I can't see any possible way they get Notre Dame, simply because I'm not sure they can match the money the Irish currently get off their NBC contract.

I know I've heard Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse mentioned in the past. Just saw UConn's name pop up in an article as well. I suppose West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida would also all be viable targets for them. Largely, it comes down to how many teams they want. A 12 team league would likely leave us mostly untouched, but if they go to 16, we could see 3-5 teams leave.

Any ideas about what the Big East might do in response? Possibly go after teams like Memphis, Butler, Kent State, Old Dominion, and other successful mid-majors with moderate enrollments? Not sure what the sizes are of all the current BE schools, but I'm guessing us and Seton Hall are probably two of the smallest, as far as enrollment goes.

The Big Ten university presidents are really committed to only allowing schools of similar academic prestige in the conference.  All of the Big Ten's members are also members of the Association of American Universities, "an association of 62 leading research universities in the United States and Canada."  This AAU was founded in 1900 by the Ivy League and the University of Chicago.  Notre Dame (which has a well deserved academic reputation of its own) is the only school not a member of the AAU to have ever been seriously considered (actually they were offered) Big Ten membership.  It would be interesting to know if Notre Dame has ever considered as a plus to joining the Big Ten the effect that that might have on ND's potential membership in the AAU.

Two of the more recent additions to the AAU were Rutgers (1989) and Texas A&M (2001).  A&M's membership is interesting because Texas (an AAU member since 1929) would face real political pressure not to leave all its Texas brethren behind for the Big Ten.  However, if they were brought in with Texas A&M that might get the deal done while at the same time allowing other Big Ten teams to get more for their traveling dollar to Texas.  I still think that this is a long shot though.  The best argument for it would be getting the Big Ten network into the state of Texas by grabbing the state's two biggest college sports fan bases.  This revenue increase would more than offset traveling costs for Big Ten teams, I would assume.

UConn is not a member of the AAU, nor do I think that it is anywhere close to being one.  That is why Rutgers is the school in the Big East most often mentioned in Big Ten expansion, even though it is close geographically to UConn and UConn offers a more attractive package of football and basketball programs.  There are two other Big East members who are prominently mentioned in Big Ten expansion, Pitt and Syracuse.  Guess what, they are the only other Big East schools who are AAU members.  Can you see a pattern here?  I don't think that we have to worry about West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida getting lured away.  Pitt's disadvantage is that it does little to increase the Big Ten Network's reach.  Syracuse gets downgraded for its location, due to both distance and for not being located along convenient travel routes (as is Rutgers).

[buckchuckler]

It sucks that a conference with 1 relevant football program and 1 relevant hoops program can mess up so much.

[brewcity77]

The Big Ten university presidents are really committed to only allowing schools of similar academic prestige in the conference.  All of the Big Ten's members are also members of the Association of American Universities, "an association of 62 leading research universities in the United States and Canada."  This AAU was founded in 1900 by the Ivy League and the University of Chicago.  Notre Dame (which has a well deserved academic reputation of its own) is the only school not a member of the AAU to have ever been seriously considered (actually they were offered) Big Ten membership.  It would be interesting to know if Notre Dame has ever considered as a plus to joining the Big Ten the effect that that might have on ND's potential membership in the AAU.

Two of the more recent additions to the AAU were Rutgers (1989) and Texas A&M (2001).  A&M's membership is interesting because Texas (an AAU member since 1929) would face real political pressure not to leave all its Texas brethren behind for the Big Ten.  However, if they were brought in with Texas A&M that might get the deal done while at the same time allowing other Big Ten teams to get more for their traveling dollar to Texas.  I still think that this is a long shot though.  The best argument for it would be getting the Big Ten network into the state of Texas by grabbing the state's two biggest college sports fan bases.  This revenue increase would more than offset traveling costs for Big Ten teams, I would assume.

UConn is not a member of the AAU, nor do I think that it is anywhere close to being one.  That is why Rutgers is the school in the Big East most often mentioned in Big Ten expansion, even though it is close geographically to UConn and UConn offers a more attractive package of football and basketball programs.  There are two other Big East members who are prominently mentioned in Big Ten expansion, Pitt and Syracuse.  Guess what, they are the only other Big East schools who are AAU members.  Can you see a pattern here?  I don't think that we have to worry about West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida getting lured away.  Pitt's disadvantage is that it does little to increase the Big Ten Network's reach.  Syracuse gets downgraded for its location, due to both distance and for not being located along convenient travel routes (as is Rutgers).

Thanks for that insightful post, LittleMurs. Glad to hear perspective from someone who clearly knows what the criteria will be for the Big Ten's targeted expansion. If this site had a karma system, I'd be sending it your way. Instead, you'll have to settle for my sincere thanks

[GGGG]

I guess the question becomes whom all we might lose. I'd have to think they will only add schools that have both football and basketball. And I can't see any possible way they get Notre Dame, simply because I'm not sure they can match the money the Irish currently get off their NBC contract.

I have had to explain this about a dozen times on this board.

The Big Ten makes more money per school than Notre Dame because of the Big Ten Network.  In fact, if you read the article I linked to, there is a quote:  "By joining the Big Ten, the Irish could increase their annual TV revenue from roughly $12 million to $22 million per year, get a national TV platform (the Big Ten Network) for its top-notch Olympic sports and decrease travel costs for its teams."  The NBC contract was very lucrative at the time, but ND makes a pretty middle of the road amount when compared to those in BCS conferences because of cable television revenue.  ND just doesn't have the pull to start something on its own.

Notre Dame is in a real interesting position.  If the B10 expands, it will likely be the last time for the next couple of decades if not forever.  There are serious questions about whether Notre Dame can continue to go alone given trends in media and the money involved.  And my guess is that the B10 is going to let them know this...this is their last chance.  ND can choose between the security of the B10, or take a risk and go it alone.

[GGGG]

They also mention them looking at B12 institutions other than the Texas schools.  Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State and Nebraska are also AAU members.

[MUBurrow]

Good point SoSW. To that end, I would be shocked in ND doesn't join.  a month and change ago, their President even mentioned the changing landscape of college sports, and the dramatic consequences Big 10 expansion could have on ND.  I think this softening on the idea of joining reflected a greater desire to join once and for all among the ND hierarchy - the scare tactics of not joining were the best way to try to persuade all of the old money that still has a dramatically overinflated view of their alma mater.  ND suffers from this problem more than any other school, and I think the current school administration is really afraid that this sense of exceptionalism among the detached alumni might really handcuff the school moving forward.

[GGGG]

Good point SoSW. To that end, I would be shocked in ND doesn't join.  a month and change ago, their President even mentioned the changing landscape of college sports, and the dramatic consequences Big 10 expansion could have on ND.  I think this softening on the idea of joining reflected a greater desire to join once and for all among the ND hierarchy - the scare tactics of not joining were the best way to try to persuade all of the old money that still has a dramatically overinflated view of their alma mater.  ND suffers from this problem more than any other school, and I think the current school administration is really afraid that this sense of exceptionalism among the detached alumni might really handcuff the school moving forward.

I agree.  I think the statements by their administration were very precise and are being used to "soften the blow" if they decide to join.  I mean, they can't make up $10 million annually. 

I also think you are correct...most ND alums have no idea that the numbers have changed this drastically over the past decade or so.

[brewcity77]

But doesn't ND get a ridiculous amount of money from the BCS because they don't have to share as a football indepedent? At least when they qualify for a BCS bowl? Of course, the declining standard of Irish football could make the B10 more appealing, but if they were able to return to the heyday of Irish football, where they were a perennial top 10 team (I don't see it happening, but that doesn't mean that the ND powers that be don't believe it could) they are a virtual lock for the BCS every year. Splitting up the money they get from there with 11 or 15 other conference teams doesn't seem nearly as appealing as keeping the whole kitty to themselves.

[GGGG]

But doesn't ND get a ridiculous amount of money from the BCS because they don't have to share as a football indepedent? At least when they qualify for a BCS bowl? Of course, the declining standard of Irish football could make the B10 more appealing, but if they were able to return to the heyday of Irish football, where they were a perennial top 10 team (I don't see it happening, but that doesn't mean that the ND powers that be don't believe it could) they are a virtual lock for the BCS every year. Splitting up the money they get from there with 11 or 15 other conference teams doesn't seem nearly as appealing as keeping the whole kitty to themselves.

Not necessarily.  ND hedged their bets with the BCS a few years ago.  They get $4.5 million in years in which they participate, and $1.5 million the years they do not.  After expenses, the Big Ten generally distributes about $2.5 million per year per team in Bowl profits.

[HouWarrior]

Does any one have solid info on how many?
1) B 10 was VERY conservative last time w/just one add on, and w/big bucks involved, a multi team expansion is just a dilution w/o upside revenue enhancement.
2)The logic dictates a one team only expansion--B 10 goes to 12, and allows a 2 division 6 teams per div.  format and it adds a FB champ game for big revenue$
3)That said put 6 teams in west or 6 in east, indentify the resulting division w/the need for a team and pick your high academic, big rep program add on.
4) local TV markets/recruiting bases are also points but lesser--given point 1

I analyze/guess its a one team add on only; w/i same region (ND) or on east or west edges (Miisouri, Pitt)  . Far flung teams (rutgers, Uconn, texas, Texas A&M---except for tv markets/recruitng areas) make little sense to me.

I dont think you add and share all the $ w/anyone, except to get the fb Champ game$-- which is their only motivation I have heard of.

[GGGG]

Does any one have solid info on how many?
1) B 10 was VERY conservative last time w/just one add on, and w/big bucks involved, a multi team expansion is just a dilution w/o upside revenue enhancement.
2)The logic dictates a one team only expansion--B 10 goes to 12, and allows a 2 division 6 teams per div.  format and it adds a FB champ game for big revenue$
3)That said put 6 teams in west or 6 in east, indentify the resulting division w/the need for a team and pick your high academic big program add on.
4) TV markets/recruiting bases are also points but lesser--given point 1
I analyze/guess its a one team add on only; w/i same region (ND) or on east or west edges (Miisouri, Pitt) 

Television markets are everything.  For instance, you put Nebraska in the B10, and every household in the state gets the B10 network.  That will more than make up for splitting the pot an extra way.  Now, what about Rutgers...or Missouri...or Texas?

This isn't ten years ago.  The landscape is different how.

[duanewade]

Television markets are everything.  For instance, you put Nebraska in the B10, and every household in the state gets the B10 network.  That will more than make up for splitting the pot an extra way.  Now, what about Rutgers...or Missouri...or Texas?

This isn't ten years ago.  The landscape is different how.

Give it a rest Sultan.....you're embarrassing yourself with so many silly posts regardless of the subject matter.  The Big 10 Network is a short-term extra revenue producer to the Big 10 that can be easily be emulated by other players and conferences who also can add their own 24 hour cable network or something similar.  When Apple came out with a smart phone (the iPhone) the rest of the world soon came out with their own versions as big money spurs big competition.  Watch for ND to use NBC to create their own 24 hours network and/or get increase in payouts for home games with the a threat to join the Big 10 conference as leverage.  Watch for the same from other conferences who are already at work emulating the successes of the Big 10 network.  Stop pretending like the rest of the world is stupid and not money hungry also and don't know how to leverage their assets and fanbases into additional revenues.          

[HouWarrior]

Television markets are everything.  For instance, you put Nebraska in the B10, and every household in the state gets the B10 network.  That will more than make up for splitting the pot an extra way.  Now, what about Rutgers...or Missouri...or Texas?

This isn't ten years ago.  The landscape is different how.

How quaint.
Its seems quite off point to say "TV is everything", but I'll bite.
Among the TV markets w/universities which fit w/Big ten needs, lets compare such to top 35 TV markets (see below--milwaukee is 35).
Please note
Nebraska is not on this list (rural states have less TVs and more silos, than urbanized states)

1   New York, NY 7,493,530   6.524  
2   Los Angeles, CA 5,659,170   4.927  
3   Chicago, IL 3,501,010   3.048  
4   Philadelphia, PA 2,955,190   2.573  
5   Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 2,544,410   2.215  
6   San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA 2,503,400   2.179  
7   Boston, MA (Manchester, NH) 2,410,180   2.098  
8   Atlanta, GA 2,387,520   2.079  
9   Washington, DC (Hagerstown, MD) 2,335,040   2.033  
10   Houston, TX 2,123,460   1.849  
11   Detroit, MI 1,890,220   1.646  
12   Phoenix, AZ 1,873,930   1.631  
13   Seattle-Tacoma, WA 1,833,990   1.597  
14   Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), FL 1,805,810   1.572  
15   Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 1,732,050   1.508  
16   Denver, CO 1,539,380   1.340  
17   Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL 1,538,090   1.339  
18   Cleveland-Akron (Canton), OH 1,520,750   1.324  
19   Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, FL 1,455,620   1.267  
20   Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, CA 1,404,580   1.223  
21   St. Louis, MO 1,249,450   1.088  
22   Portland, OR 1,188,770   1.035  
23   Pittsburgh, PA 1,154,950   1.005  
24   Charlotte, NC 1,147,910   1.000  
25   Indianapolis, IN 1,119,760   0.975  
26   Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville), NC 1,107,820   0.964  
27   Baltimore, MD 1,093,170   0.952  
28   San Diego, CA 1,073,390   0.934  
29   Nashville, TN 1,019,010   0.888  
30   Hartford and New Haven, CT 1,010,630   0.880  
31   Salt Lake City, UT 944,060   0.822  
32   Kansas City, MO 941,360   0.820  
33   Cincinnati, OH 918,670   0.800  
34   Columbus, OH 904,030   0.787  
35   Milwaukee, WI 901,790   0.785

I noted in my post 1)Mizzou is likely--but not due to TV only 2)that on a pure tv/recruiting base issue a Texas and Texas A&M  to BIG TEN make sense--yes both--UT will never abandon its OU and A&M games--OU can return to  its annual non conf game(big 8/SWC days). This would imbalance the Big 10 expansion to 13 teams though(and you assume UT/A&M  want to share texas recruits w/big ten, the 2 dont like being in upper eschelon of Big 12, and that their fanbases would go to the cold states in November).
Of course if TV were everything, Iowa must leave Big ten, and you are back to 12--will that happen? .
You get a C minus...TV is a factor, but your failure to analyze historical pattern, competition/travel issues, economic benefits,self interest as a predictor of action and to look at a map, show a lack of intellectual effort and a tendency toward overstatement.
The better would have been to say simply you beleive the Champ game revenue$ is not so key and big ten really wants/needs to increase reg season TV revenue by a greater Nationwide TV market share. At least that is a logical speculation, even though not supported by any press articles on their reasoning/goals.

[GGGG]

The better would have been to say simply you beleive the Champ game revenue$ is not so key and big ten really wants/needs to increase reg season TV revenue by a greater Nationwide TV market share. At least that is a logical speculation, even though not supported by any press articles on their reasoning/goals.

Bored?

I was merely bringing up an example that the addition of large, state universities will likely add more per team revenue so issues like championship game and bowl game revenue shares will not be as important.

[HouWarrior]

Bored?

I was merely bringing up an example that the addition of large, state universities will likely add more per team revenue so issues like championship game and bowl game revenue shares will not be as important.

B plus --this improves on your original  "TV is everything" overstate, but it plagarizes what I suggested you could have noted.
This point is still off --only a school joining that would generate to the total conf more than the $12-$22 million/per team reportedly now enjoyed by members  would cause per team revenue to increase.
...Bowl game revenue simply is not a function of a bigger or smaller Big 10-

-it is and remains, as the press reports, the champ game revenue and 12 team 2 division split

[ecompt]

Brew City: As far as enrollment, we are bigger than Providence and Villanova.

[GGGG]

Give it a rest Sultan.....you're embarrassing yourself with so many silly posts regardless of the subject matter.  The Big 10 Network is a short-term extra revenue producer to the Big 10 that can be easily be emulated by other players and conferences who also can add their own 24 hour cable network or something similar.  When Apple came out with a smart phone (the iPhone) the rest of the world soon came out with their own versions as big money spurs big competition.  Watch for ND to use NBC to create their own 24 hours network and/or get increase in payouts for home games with the a threat to join the Big 10 conference as leverage.  Watch for the same from other conferences who are already at work emulating the successes of the Big 10 network.  Stop pretending like the rest of the world is stupid and not money hungry also and don't know how to leverage their assets and fanbases into additional revenues.      

1. How is it "short-term?"  The Big Ten Network distributed $7.5M last year to each school.  Their 10 year, $1 Billion deal with ABC/ESPN distributed slightly more per school, but the Big Ten Network isn't short-term nor is it simply "extra revenue."

2. I most certainly don't think the other conferences are stupid.  In fact, I know that they are doing all they can to increase revenue.  It's not rocket science.  But outside of the SEC, they just don't have the numbers that the B10 has.  Tell me this...since you and I agree that the other conferences know what they are doing, why haven't they simulated the BTN?  I mean, it's been around for years.  What has kept them so busy that they haven't developed this revenue?  The answer is they don't have the numbers...they don't have the combination of markets and fan-bases.

3. What leverage does Notre Dame have?  They have a large fan base sure, but they are spread out across the country.  What cable company would carry a "Notre Dame Channel" in their line up?  The idea that they just haven't gotten around to doing it is just silly.  ND will never be able to draw in this type of revenue.  But that doesn't mean they will make the jump...they may feel that the uniqueness of being independent is more important.

4. Your iPhone example is lame.  Competitors aren't fighting over the same customers.  (ie, Big Ten football fans aren't going to watch the "Big 12 Network," and it most certainly wouldn't be in the cable line up of say, Kokomo, IN.)

[Keelsmeals]

BTW, Notre Dame is a member of AAC&U, as is UConn - they're listed under "U" for University of * - so that's not an issue if they wanted to/were invited to join the Big 10.

http://www.aacu.org/membership/list.cfm#U

[Dawson Rental]

BTW, Notre Dame is a member of AAC&U, as is UConn - they're listed under "U" for University of * - so that's not an issue if they wanted to/were invited to join the Big 10.

http://www.aacu.org/membership/list.cfm#U

You are looking at the membership list for the Association of American Colleges and Universities, the AACU which is very large. (1200+)

I was talking about the Association of American Universities, the AAU which is limited to a select group of 62 major research universities.

Hell, the Association of American Colleges and Universities has the University of Memphis as a member for cripes sake!

[danidoodles]

All Notre Dame games are now broadcast on cable television the day after the game (on Sundays).  The YES netowrk (Yankees broadcasting Network) worked out a deal with them in order to broadcast their games.  Granted this is not an all Notre Dame channel, however it is a start for ND in the world of cable television.

[M@RQUETTEW@RRIORS]

I lived in Texas for a few years and a buddy of mine down there says that Texas is using this as leverage to get their own network in the state of Texas.  That will be on 100% of cable/satelite networks down there.

My guess would be someone like Missouri and it will be just 1 team.

Texas doesnt need the big ten to generate this extra $$ and more if it wants to.  neither does a&m.  Problem would be what are the dominos that would follow.  You can be sure the Big 12 would not want to lose it conf champsionship game if 1 team leaves.  So they would then look to poach someone.

The thing thats drives me crazy about this is people scream from the rooftops about NCAA tourney expansion because "its only about $$$".  But nobody seems to mind that the Big Ten is expanding "for nothing but $$"