Tranghese speaks - BE in trouble

[goodgreatgrand]

I always had a feeling that the retirement of Tranghese was the beginning of the end. I dont think he wanted to be on board post-ACC raid. He started the conference and wanted to leave at its peak (I never thought that he really believed the BE was stronger than ever as he said in his last press conference).

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigeast/post/_/id/8473/tranghese-big-east-could-be-in-trouble

[rocky_warrior]

Context man, context!

    "It's a question of what the Big Ten does,'' he said. "If the Big Ten takes multiple teams, the Big East is in trouble.''

    "I don't think there's anything the Big East can do to prevent it," he told the radio station. "Everyone is on pins and needles waiting to see what the Big Ten will do. It's a pretty dicey time.''

[GGGG]

The comments below the article completely reek of naiveity.  For example:

"The Big East has one of the best journalism schools in the country at Syracuse. Partner w/ SU to form a Big East network - it would reach the biggest market in the country."

Jesus H. Christ....

[Dawson Rental]

The Big Ten is really slow and deliberate about expansion.  Hell, they've got eleven teams and they still call themselves the Big Ten.  When they added Penn State to get to 11, they made it clear that they were eventually going to 12 teams, yet they sat back and watched while the Big Eight raided the southwest conference for four teams and beat them to the Big 12 name.

When the Big Ten does expand it will stop at 12 like every other BCS conference that isn't worried about surviving a raid on its members does.  Then whether they grab someone from the BEast or the Big 12, most likely Memphis (maybe Houston) moves into the vacated spot and things probably stay put for another 50 years.

If they do go for Rutgers, as is rumored, and the BEast adds Memphis, the BEast takes a hit in football, but B-Ball gets to be unbelievable!

[goodgreatgrand]

Rutgers is no loss. Adios

You forgot to use teal.

[GGGG]

The Big Ten is really slow and deliberate about expansion.  Hell, they've got eleven teams and they still call themselves the Big Ten.  When they added Penn State to get to 11, they made it clear that they were eventually going to 12 teams, yet they sat back and watched while the Big Eight raided the southwest conference for four teams and beat them to the Big 12 name.

When the Big Ten does expand it will stop at 12 like every other BCS conference that isn't worried about surviving a raid on its members does.  Then whether they grab someone from the BEast or the Big 12, most likely Memphis (maybe Houston) moves into the vacated spot and things probably stay put for another 50 years.

If they do go for Rutgers, as is rumored, and the BEast adds Memphis, the BEast takes a hit in football, but B-Ball gets to be unbelievable!

If the B10 adds a BE school, I seriously doubt Memphis will be the next BE addition.  It will likely be a football driven decision and Memphis' football program is really bad.

[goodgreatgrand]

Nevermind the fact that Memphis would probably be dead last in terms of academic reputation if it joined the BE.

Memphis tried to get into the BE the first time around but the BE didnt like their overall resume. Guess what they did to try to bolster their resume? After Tranghese retired, they hired him as a consultant (who better than the guy that looked at all of the applications). Now, according to this interview, "the types of schools that would make the Big East more viable aren't available." Im pretty sure Memphis is available but they obviously arent considered a school that will add any value to the conference.

What about E. Carolina?

[GGGG]

The problem is there is no school that would add value to the BE right now, unless they raid another BCS conference.  And that isn't going to happen because they don't have the $$$ to pry anyone else away.  The only reason that Louisville and Cincinnati were added was to get up to 8 teams...which they balanced out with Marquette and DePaul to keep the basketball only schools happy.  Tranghese knows this.  He knows that the B10's likely addition of another school is the big decision that needs to be made...and if it is a "transformative" decision where 3-5 teams are plucked from other conferences, the BE just has to make sure it is left in a position strong enough to not lose too much control. 

The best case for the BE would be the B10 pucking a school from another conference like Missouri.  It actually wouldn't be disasterous if they pick up Rutgers or ND.  However, if they pick up Rutgers, Pitt, Missouri and Texas...well, then everything everywhere is up for grabs.

[79Warrior]

Rutgers is no loss. Adios

Rutgers is a big loss for football. Replacing with Memphis is a step down for football schools. Just a matter of time before this all breaks apart as football is making its move.

[dkurszewski]

Memphis might not be that good now in football, but being in a BCS major conference will improve their recruiting classes.  That will lead to a better football program over time.  Cincinatti and Louisville were not great football programs and they got better once in the Big East.

As far as basketball goes, I would love to play Memphis once or twice a year instead of Rutgers.  This would make the Big East basketball conference even better.

[GGGG]

Memphis might not be that good now in football, but being in a BCS major conference will improve their recruiting classes.  That will lead to a better football program over time.  Cincinatti and Louisville were not great football programs and they got better once in the Big East.

Louisville's football program has gotten worse since it joined the BE.

[Litehouse]

Our best possible outcome is if another conference also gets raided and we can merge with their left-overs.
For example, if the B10 takes Texas and Missouri, and the Pac10 takes Colorado, maybe the Big East can merge with the northern B12 schools (Nebraska, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State).  Or if the SEC gets greedy and takes FSU, Clemson, Miami, and G-Tech, maybe the Big East can merge with the other 8 schools in the ACC.

[chapman]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/13102294/pac10-looking-at-title-game-possibilities-without-expansion?tag=headlines;headlines

Another thing to consider - Pac 10 is considering getting an exemption, possibly even a change to the pointless and outdated "12 team rule" to hold a conference championship in football.  The Big Ten estimates a championship game is worth $12-$15 million to the conference, and if the pointless rule changes it may influence the Big Ten's decision to expand, also making it even more doubtful they take more than one team as the new money is split less ways.  The Big Ten, particularly with this revenue boost will find it difficult to add programs that are 110% certain to give a worthwhile boost to the revenue share for all the current members.

[goodgreatgrand]

Agreed. I think FSU and Miami are misfits in the ACC. I wouldnt be surprised if they go somewhere else. Then they add Syracuse and UConn maybe?

[GGGG]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/13102294/pac10-looking-at-title-game-possibilities-without-expansion?tag=headlines;headlines

Another thing to consider - Pac 10 is considering getting an exemption, possibly even a change to the pointless and outdated "12 team rule" to hold a conference championship in football.  The Big Ten estimates a championship game is worth $12-$15 million to the conference, and if the pointless rule changes it may influence the Big Ten's decision to expand, also making it even more doubtful they take more than one team as the new money is split less ways.  The Big Ten, particularly with this revenue boost will find it difficult to add programs that are 110% certain to give a worthwhile boost to the revenue share for all the current members.

The conference championship game isn't really the driving force when it comes to revenue any longer.  New markets for the Big Ten Network are.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Our best possible outcome is if another conference also gets raided and we can merge with their left-overs.
For example, if the B10 takes Texas and Missouri, and the Pac10 takes Colorado, maybe the Big East can merge with the northern B12 schools (Nebraska, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State).  Or if the SEC gets greedy and takes FSU, Clemson, Miami, and G-Tech, maybe the Big East can merge with the other 8 schools in the ACC.

Won't happen....there is no benefit to the other conferences for doing that, it would just water them down.

Just hope and pray that Cottingham has a plan....expanding to 96 can't happen quick enough if all this blows up

[MerrittsMustache]

I know that this has been brought up before but, if the Big East where to break up (which seems almost inevitable), is there a realistic chance that the Big East "leftovers" could poach the A-10 and create a basketball-centric Catholic University conference?

Hypothetical 10-team conference*...

Marquette
Notre Dame
Villanova
Georgetown
Seton Hall
St. John's
DePaul
Providence
Xavier
Dayton

It's obviously not as strong as the current Big East but it's an interesting mix and would have some good match-ups. That being said, it could end up being very top-heavy, not to mention it's risky for the bigger names schools to enter a conference with teams like DePaul and PC who are hovering near mid-major status.

(Depending on how things shake out, they could also add to the conf or replace teams who go elsewhere with St. Joe's, St. Bonnie, Siena, or even SLU or Creighton. That would weaken the conference though so it's probably not the best option.)

Anyway, maybe Chicos or someone else who's more "in the know" than I am could weigh in on this. Any realistic chance of something similar to this alignment happening?

[Litehouse]

Won't happen....there is no benefit to the other conferences for doing that, it would just water them down.

Just hope and pray that Cottingham has a plan....expanding to 96 can't happen quick enough if all this blows up

I'm not saying it's likely, but if Mizzou, Colorado and Texas leave the B12, then they're left with the northern schools (Nebraska, Kansas, K-State and Iowa State), the 2 Oklahoma schools (OU and OK State) and the Texas schools (Baylor, Texas Tech and Texas A&M).  If the potential expansion candidates for the B12 were more schools in Texas or Oklahoma (TCU, Houston, SMU, Tulsa), I could see the northern B12 schools deciding it might be more beneficial to be affiliated with the Big East schools, instead of getting lost with all the Texas/Oklahoma schools.

Either way, I think we'll be fine as long as we can stay in the same division as the football conferences.

[Dawson Rental]

I think that Tranghese is full of it.  I think he's probably trying to create panic, to help his client, Memphis escape CUSA.  The ACC is set.  The SEC is set. The Big 12 is set.  The Big 10 will at some point add ONE more team.  Not ND, that ship has sailed, though it came close to docking.  Rutgers is the most likely Big East target, with Syracuse a second option, though its distance from the rest of the Big Ten schools is a definite negative for the athletic directors (they have a lot of teams to send out there and they'd all have to go by plane).  I forget why (maybe academics, the Big 10 presidents want major research institutions or something) but Connecticut is not in their sights.  There is no way that Texas leaves the Big 12.  The Big 10 might be able to get Missouri or even Nebraska.  In which case the Big 12 goes for Memphis or Houston or Louisville.  If we lose Loserville, then we grab Memphis or Houston.  The Pac 10 would love to expand to 12, but they ain't going to get Colorado or any other Big 12 team and they know it.  the don't like their options for raiding the other western conferences (any of those schools would dilute their revenue pool), so they are holding pat and trying to get a football playoff with only 10 schools.

To sum up, the Big 10 (grabbing Penn State) and the SEC (Arkansas, South Carolina?) started this conference realignment, but when the other conferences saw what was happening, they all came up with an end game that they wanted and executed it while the Big 10 sat on its hands, probably hoping for ND.  The Big 10 was/is in no hurry since they are confident they can get ONE team that they want from the Big East or the Big 12 (but not ANY team they want from the Big 12) anytime they want it.  Once the Big 10 moves, the victimized conference will decide who to add to fill their ONE vacancy, and that will be it my friends for the next 50 or so years.

Modification: TCU or Southern Methodist or even Tulsa might be considered by the Big 12, but Houston would make the most sense for them.

[BrewCity83]

I pretty much agree with this, except it will only last for a few years.  As the $ continues to shift, things will start to happen again.

[Dawson Rental]

The Sultan of South Wayne (may he forgive me for putting him in orange) is absolutely correct about this being entirely about TV markets.  Now that I think of it, this might very well explain Tranghese's comments.  As I stated above, the only LIKELY scenario out there is that the Big 10 picks up one team, and the affected conference replaces that one team.  In this situation, Memphis might very well lose out to Houston, in spite of its vaunted  basketball program.  Houston plays division I football (I'm not sure who's the better football program between them and Memphis right now) and they are in the fourth biggest TV market in the country.  That and concern over the residual seediness of the Calipari rein in Memphis may well put Houston ahead of Memphis for one open spot.

However, if Tranghese can convince enough athletic directors that the sky is about to fall and conferences will implode, then it might make sense for the Big East, say, to add three or more teams, so that it is assured of surviving the coming catastrophe.  If the Big East decides to add numerous teams, it would be very hard not to include Memphis in the mix.  I wonder what Tranghese's bonus would be, if this were to happen?

[radome]

I don't intend to hijack this thread but can Marquette continue at our current level without the Big East?  Won't there just be some other basketball first or basketball only conference with some of the current Big East teams?  I read the article on football that someone posted and understand the concerns.  Nevertheless, there will be a desire for basketball and as long as we connect with whoever, is there reason for doom and gloom?

[goodgreatgrand]

I don't intend to hijack this thread but can Marquette continue at our current level without the Big East?  Won't there just be some other basketball first or basketball only conference with some of the current Big East teams?  I read the article on football that someone posted and understand the concerns.  Nevertheless, there will be a desire for basketball and as long as we connect with whoever, is there reason for doom and gloom?

The money we get as a part-time member of the BE is almost irrelevant (under $1.5 MM). I would think most other conference could offer something similar. The exposure we get with the BE is what is priceless. Unfortunately, it's the football schools (for the most part) that have added the most value to the BE name (UConn, Pitt, WV, Cuse). Nova and GTown have also contributed enormously but if the football schools leave, those two schools cant hold up the conference. It's best to just go with whichever conference has a history of supporting their basketball product (and has success). I dont think its all 'doom and gloom' for us. The football schools have a lot more at stake.   

[Dawson Rental]

I pretty much agree with this, except it will only last for a few years.  As the $ continues to shift, things will start to happen again.

I really think that the expansion of the ACC, the creation of the Big 12, and the reinvention of the Big East was the major earth quake.  The Big 10's addition of one last team will be an after shock.  At that point, I think that the fault lines are pretty much aligned.  I'm not sure what you are referring to when you say "as the $ continues to shift".  One of the results of these changes will be that the BCS conferences will be in an even more dominate position regarding raking in the revenues for "amateur" athletic contests.  Nothing attracts money like money.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Tranghese certainly has a client to think about, but I would have to go so far over the deep end of conspiracies to think he wants to see the destruction of the very conference he helped birth along with Gavitt.

As stated a month or two ago...if the Big Ten only grabs one, then it's all manageable.  If they grab 3, doesn't matter which conference its from, there will be dominoes falling everywhere.  At that point everyone else tries to pick up someone else to fortify their situation.

This is why I stated two days ago that Houston is in an interesting position right now.  4th largest market, ton of tradition, etc....right now they aren't in the best place, but if the Big 12 loses teams, if the SEC needs a team, if someone else needs a team, they suddenly become attractive as they have a bowl football team and a NCAA basketball team.

Unfortunately we wait because it doesn't seem like there are any proactive moves for the Big East to make on the football side unless they pulled a rabbit out of the hat and Notre Dame joined.....never going to happen.