Father Wild & Buzz

[lurch91]

If Crean had been here last year, I don't think DJ is.  Remember, Taylor has already committed with an "understanding" feed to him by Crean that DJ would be gone/would not be returning for his senior year.

[Hards Alumni]

If Crean had been here last year, I don't think DJ is.  Remember, Taylor has already committed with an "understanding" feed to him by Crean that DJ would be gone/would not be returning for his senior year.

No.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

If Crean had been here last year, I don't think DJ is.  Remember, Taylor has already committed with an "understanding" feed to him by Crean that DJ would be gone/would not be returning for his senior year.

What? Where was James going to go? The guy was never an NBA talent.

[cheebs09]

Regarding Novak and Diener having successful senior years, they didn't have 2 other 4 year starters with them on the same team like Matthews would have. Novak had the 3 amigos but they were freshman, the only other senior I can really think of is Chapman and Grimm. Diener had Marcus Jackson and Townsend, but I wouldn't put those two near the level of a James and McNeal. Novak was a junior on that team and played a big role, however it was Diener's team and I don't think there was much doubt about that.  I think to use Diener and Novak as proof Matthews would have followed that succession is wrong. These two were easily the number one options on those teams, I don't know if Crean were still there Matthews would have been above 4 with DJ, Mcneal, and Lazar all possibly ahead of them.

As far as Taylor, I though Hurley said in an interview when he was asking for the release that they were being told James would not be around the next year. Obviously we have to take it with a grain of salt based on Hurley's agenda at the time, but I'm sure I read he said that somewhere.

[lurch91]

Cheebs that's what I remember also, which is why I threw it out there.

[MUBurrow]

Crean accomplished a similar start once in 9 years and that was in a WAY weaker conference. All he needed to do it was 2 outstanding bigs (Jackson and Merritt), 2 NBA players (Diener and Novak) and the 3rd greatest player in the world (Wade). Last year's team (playing in what some called the toughest conference EVER) was MUCH less talented than that group.

That's why.

So you are comparing the program Crean walked into with the one Buzz was with for a year then inherited? And your comparison is that since Crean's first team was in a weaker conference, he should have had the success of Buzz's first year?

You don't think Crean's foundation has anything to do with the recruits Buzz was able to get to MU? You think that Crean's recruiting represents "all he needed to do" but not success in and of itself to get NBA talent to mke?

I honestly don't even understand what you are trying to say.

[96warrior]

Wes himself thanked Buzz for "unleashing" him for his senior year. Ask Wes under whose coaching he played better.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Wes himself thanked Buzz for "unleashing" him for his senior year. Ask Wes under whose coaching he played better.

Absolutely true.

But, does that mean that MU would have been measurably worse if TC had been the coach last season?

As Sugar pointed out (with some statistical assumptions to support it), it's reasonable to think MU would have been about the same. Maybe a little better, maybe a little worse.

I don't think anybody can definitely say one way or the other.

[Hards Alumni]

Absolutely true.

But, does that mean that MU would have been measurably worse if TC had been the coach last season?

As Sugar pointed out (with some statistical assumptions to support it), it's reasonable to think MU would have been about the same. Maybe a little better, maybe a little worse.

I don't think anybody can definitely say one way or the other.

Ah another one of those "nobody can be sure of anything" arguments you love so much

[Henry Sugar]

Wes himself thanked Buzz for "unleashing" him for his senior year. Ask Wes under whose coaching he played better.

Again, Wes got better by the same amount almost every year.

Wes went from using twelve possessions/game his soph year and ten possessions/game his junior year to fourteen possessions a game his senior year.  

UNLEASHED!

[96warrior]

If the question is "would MU have been measurably worse if TC had been the coach last season", you really have to just compare the 08-09 season up until James went out. Until that happened, I'd say they were comparable. Crean left us a great team and Buzz kept them playing well.

But the 08-09 team was built around James. What would Crean have done with James going out? Buzz not only kept the team afloat, he got us past the first round of the dance and we very nearly made it to the Sweet 16. Give him credit for that.

No one expected anything from us this year and look where we are. I can't speak to how the team would be doing under Crean. All I know is Buzz has this particular group of guys playing harder than my wildest dreams. This year we're saying things like "the offense isn't executing as well with Acker out". Doesn't that say it all?

@Henry Sugar - Wes did get better every year, but I interpret his remark about being unleashed as him saying he didn't feel like he was playing to his highest potential. (and if that was the case, at least he didn't Maymon out on us...)

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

If the question is "would MU have been measurably worse if TC had been the coach last season", you really have to just compare the 08-09 season up until James went out. Until that happened, I'd say they were comparable. Crean left us a great team and Buzz kept them playing well.

Agree.

But the 08-09 team was built around James. What would Crean have done with James going out? Buzz not only kept the team afloat, he got us past the first round of the dance and we very nearly made it to the Sweet 16. Give him credit for that.

I love the job Buzz did last year, I'm just not so sure that TC couldn't have gotten them to a similar place, even with James getting hurt. For me, there's just not enough evidence, but that's just me I guess.

No one expected anything from us this year and look where we are. I can't speak to how the team would be doing under Crean. All I know is Buzz has this particular group of guys playing harder than my wildest dreams. This year we're saying things like "the offense isn't executing as well with Acker out". Doesn't that say it all?

Agree wholeheartedly, but we're not talking about this year's team.

@Henry Sugar - Wes did get better every year, but I interpret his remark about being unleashed as him saying he didn't feel like he was playing to his highest potential. (and if that was the case, at least he didn't Maymon out on us...)

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Ah another one of those "nobody can be sure of anything" arguments you love so much

Yea yea yea... I know you hate my "middle ground" stance.  

I'm not trying to be a wet blanket on the wild speculation of how Buzz taught MU how to win, I'm just trying to offer some perspective.

I really like Buzz, but let's not get ahead of ourselves and retroactively give him all of the credit for everything that happened in the program the past 2 seasons.

If we are going to start giving him that much credit, then we probably need to increase the amount of blame for the current makeup of the roster. He was a key recruiter for MU for the past 3 years. Doesn't he deserve some criticism for the current roster, or does that just fall under "TC is a douche"?*

The truth is, Buzz deserves some credit, and some criticism. I'm not sure he deserves the amount of credit that some people are bestowing upon him... But, I guess it's all conjecture...

*Edit, I don't blame Buzz for the current roster make-up, I'm simply pointing out that you can't give him that much credit (for helping MU improve) without giving him more blame (McNeal still turned the ball over, MU still doesn't have a real big man, etc. etc.)

[Lennys Tap]

So you are comparing the program Crean walked into with the one Buzz was with for a year then inherited? And your comparison is that since Crean's first team was in a weaker conference, he should have had the success of Buzz's first year?

You don't think Crean's foundation has anything to do with the recruits Buzz was able to get to MU? You think that Crean's recruiting represents "all he needed to do" but not success in and of itself to get NBA talent to mke?

I honestly don't even understand what you are trying to say.

Nothing you say in your first two paragraphs has anything remotely to do with what I was saying.

Let me try to explain what I was saying. The question I was addressing was: Who is better at COACHING the game of basketball -Tom Crean or Buzz Williams? Nothing about inheritance, foundations or recruiting.

[Lennys Tap]

Absolutely true.

But, does that mean that MU would have been measurably worse if TC had been the coach last season?

As Sugar pointed out (with some statistical assumptions to support it), it's reasonable to think MU would have been about the same. Maybe a little better, maybe a little worse.

I don't think anybody can definitely say one way or the other.

If a tree falls in the forest and nobody hears it does it make a sound? What is the sound of one hand clapping? You seem like a really nice guy, but I would hate to be stuck behind you waiting to vote on election day.

[Hards Alumni]

If a tree falls in the forest and nobody hears it does it make a sound? What is the sound of one hand clapping? You seem like a really nice guy, but I would hate to be stuck behind you waiting to vote on election day.

LOL

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

If a tree falls in the forest and nobody hears it does it make a sound? What is the sound of one hand clapping? You seem like a really nice guy, but I would hate to be stuck behind you waiting to vote on election day.

Touche.

Sorry for being the wet blanket on this one.

I guess I just don't see this as black and white as some others do.

I hope you are right about Buzz. For me, the jury is still out. TC might have been a douche, but his numbers are the second best in MU's history. I hope Buzz is better than that.

[MUBurrow]

Tom Crean had a .664 winning pct. at MU. In 9 years he went to 5 NCAA's and 3 NIT's. He was 7-8 in postseason and advanced past the 1st round in the NCAA tournament once. I don't know if Buzz will ever make the final 4 (Wade was a once in a lifetime perfect storm scenario) but I do believe his record will prove superior to Crean's in every other measurable way.

Crean accomplished a similar start once in 9 years and that was in a WAY weaker conference. All he needed to do it was 2 outstanding bigs (Jackson and Merritt), 2 NBA players (Diener and Novak) and the 3rd greatest player in the world (Wade). Last year's team (playing in what some called the toughest conference EVER) was MUCH less talented than that group.

But all of your evidence cites records and results.  The things I falsely read into your post have to be included when you cite win/loss records and postseason appearances as evidence of who is a better basketball coach.  The fact that Buzz had a great year with TC's guys last year doesn't come close to lending itself to the notion that Buzz is a better coach.  College sports is riddled with these examples.  Charlie Weis' first year at ND with Ty Willingham's guys comes immediately to mind.
The main point is that you cannot draw a line between TC's coaching and Buzz's results last year.  Wes: sure he unleashed him more, but no mention of how TC helped Wes get over his injuries and focused on his developing an outside shot? Do you remember Wes' foot speed his first two seasons? Dom: PG is the hardest position to learn (and not that John Wall play the point like a 2 guard stuff) The things that everyone is lauding Buzz for in Dom's game last year didn't suddenly show up when Buzz came on the scene. That development was three years in the making.  At the end of the day, Buzz's overachieving last year was based on the fact people thought the team would do worse because of Buzz - not due to the team he inherited.

[Lennys Tap]

Why do you say that?  Almost every senior under Crean had awesome years.  Steve Novak's senior year made him a NBA player.  He was not a NBA player before his senior year.  Travis Diener became a NBA player as a result of his senior year.  This is what seniors do, they play like seniors.  I suspect Wes would have had a terrific senior season last year....as good, who knows.

What I'm interested in is understanding what games we would have lost as a result of the previous regime coaching.  I'm sorry, but I don't see any differences.  EVERY one of our wins last year with the exception of two were by at least 5 points and most by double digits.  The two that weren't were the Wisconsin game and NC State game.  Now, perhaps Lenny is going to argue that we would have lost that Wisconsin game.....which would be interesting since we won at Madison the year prior.

Go line by line of the games we won and lost last year, I don't know how any reasonable person can say, "Yeah, that game there that we won we would have lost instead" without it being heavily doused in bias and hatred and not one iota of historical fact.

Lenny is right in his stats about the overall record, the NITs, etc, of course that also includes the first two years which were rebuilding years but he knows that.


Last Year's Results Game By Game
http://kenpom.com/team.php?y=2009&team=Marquette

Surely you know that when you change a variable as important as a leader the entire equation is altered. To suggest that looking at final scores of games played can determine probable outcomes under such different conditions is ridiculous.

TC was indeed in a rebuiding process his first two seasons at MU. Much like Buzz is this year. But Chicos knows that.

[MUBurrow]

saying this year is a rebuilding year similar to TC's early years is near blasphemy.

[ChicosBailBonds]

What a stupid, idiotic conversation... that I am delighted to join.

The year before Buzz took over, the team was ranked the entire year.  They reached as high as #10 (mostly early in the season) and spent the latter part of the season ranked in the twenties.

#1 - it's not that crazy to think that the team could have been better and ranked just as high the following season when all three players were seniors. 

The year before Buzz took over, the team was better statistically than they were when Buzz was coach.  2008 overall ranking (#11).  2009 overall ranking (#19).  Also, the team was a lot better defensively the year before Buzz was coach (#10 in 2008; #51 in 2009).  They were, however, better offensively under Buzz (#24 in 2008; #9 in 2009)

#2 - In some measures, the team got worse under Buzz than they were under Crean.  In some measures, they got better.

Here are Matthew's efficiencies from his Freshman year through his Senior Year.  (99.1, 106.1, 111.2, 116.8).  Anyone else notice a trend?  The key difference, however, is the increase in possessions under Buzz (22.5%, 22.2%, 20.1%, 24.7%).  Of course, Matthews was still getting plenty of possessions under Crean too.

#3 - Matthews would have still gotten better by the same amount, but the difference is that Buzz used him more.

====

Now, lest I be accused of being a Crean lover or a Crean hater or a Crean anything, my point is that the team was pretty good the year before their senior season, so it's not crazy to think that Matthews would have still been good and that team would have still done good things.  The team would have just looked different with most likely equivalent results.

Also, I like Buzz more than Crean.

Solid post...thank you

[ChicosBailBonds]

..."almost every senior under Crean had awesome years"......
Townsend, Merrit, Grimm, Chapman, Lott, Kinsella, MJax,
Hmmmm.     The only players who had good senior years under Crean who played here 4 years are Henry, Novak and Diener (cut short).    And about that list of players who left rather than finish their career under Crean.      Bradley, Mason, Menard, Howard, Odartey, Matthews, Christian, Bell, Amo, Mort.     Hmmmm, again.    I liked Crean.    I don't suffer unnatural man-love for Crean.  

No one here suffers from unnatural man-love for Crean, though there are a few posters here that I think get the Viagra out for our current coach at times.


That's why I said almost.  Do you think Grimm was a poorer basketball player as a Senior than his first three years?  Chapman?  Townsend?  I don't.  They were smarter, more skilled, etc.  But their roles changed.  You can't just base it on stats.  They had other players younger that were vying for their jobs and their roles, minutes, etc, changed.  Merritt, he was injured and never fully recovered.   Look, not everyone is going to improve which is why I said almost, but MOST seniors are better as Seniors than they are years prior.  Wes would have been no exception.

I disagree with your "only players" comment were Henry, Novak and Diener, but perhaps that's because you used the 4 year criteria.  Dwyane Wade was certainly better when he left than when he came.  Jackson had an All CUSA Senior Year...he was so unnoticeable down south that Estill from Kentucky said he had never heard of him.  

Since DJ's stats were down last year, does that mean Buzz made him regress?  I mean, that's essentially the argument you and others are making.  Since from a "stats" perspective, some of those other players you mentioned didn't do as well so it must have been the coaching. Well, by that logic, Buzz must have caused DJ to regress then, especially FT shooting?     Of course, I don't believe that for a second but I'm just applying the same logic.

At the end of the day, if someone can look at our wins and losses last year and tell me that we wouldn't have won the same number of games, I'd like to know which ones and bring a coherent argument to back that up.  

[ChicosBailBonds]

So you are comparing the program Crean walked into with the one Buzz was with for a year then inherited? And your comparison is that since Crean's first team was in a weaker conference, he should have had the success of Buzz's first year?

You don't think Crean's foundation has anything to do with the recruits Buzz was able to get to MU? You think that Crean's recruiting represents "all he needed to do" but not success in and of itself to get NBA talent to mke?

I honestly don't even understand what you are trying to say.

I'm glad I'm not the only one that sees that.  To compare the two considering the baseline jump off point is ridiculous.

But it's a tired argument.  I'm glad TC, as horrible a recruiter and coach as he was, left us with Lazar, Wes, McNeal, James, etc so a true coach could take them where they could not have gone.  I'm even more excited, per Lenny, that since our current coach is better at coaching and a better recruiter, we are going to kick some A S S in the next decade even more so than we did.  And for that, I'm a very happy Marquette University basketball fan!! 

[Pakuni]

What a stupid, idiotic conversation... that I am delighted to join.

The year before Buzz took over, the team was ranked the entire year.  They reached as high as #10 (mostly early in the season) and spent the latter part of the season ranked in the twenties.

#1 - it's not that crazy to think that the team could have been better and ranked just as high the following season when all three players were seniors.  

The year before Buzz took over, the team was better statistically than they were when Buzz was coach.  2008 overall ranking (#11).  2009 overall ranking (#19).  Also, the team was a lot better defensively the year before Buzz was coach (#10 in 2008; #51 in 2009).  They were, however, better offensively under Buzz (#24 in 2008; #9 in 2009)

You may very well be right on your initial point, but as for the rest ... is it at all accurate to compare when the rosters were not the same? Crean's last team had Ooze and Fitzgerald playing a combined 34 mpg, and some PT out of Mbakwe at season's end. None great, impact players, but it gave the team some size they lacked last year. And Buzz really had nothing last year to replace them other than to give Lazar, Hazel and Burke more minutes in the post. Giving Lazar more minutes probably worked out in MU's favor ... but Ooze + Fitz >> Burke + Hazel.

Then there's the small matter of Dominic James' injury.

#2 - In some measures, the team got worse under Buzz than they were under Crean.  In some measures, they got better.

See above

I'm not really arguing whether Crean could have done better or worse ... I just don't think one can compare the numbers of the 2007-08 team with those of last year's team and say the team got better or worse.
It wasn't the same team.

[Henry Sugar]

You may very well be right on your initial point, but as for the rest ... is it at all accurate to compare when the rosters were not the same?

....

I'm not really arguing whether Crean could have done better or worse ... I just don't think one can compare the numbers of the 2007-08 team with those of last year's team and say the team got better or worse.
It wasn't the same team.

The majority of possessions in 2008 were still consumed by James, McNeal, Matthews, Hayward, and then even Acker.  There were a lot of constants between the two teams. 

The original statement I was responding to was

Last year's team was 23-4, 12-2 in Big East play and #8 in the polls when DJ went down. Numbers only reached once during Crean's tenure - the final 4 team. Do I think TC could have done that with last year's group? No chance.

I believe that the team could achieved similar results, because the team, returning a tremendous amount of experience, was still good the year before.