From SI's Bubble Watch

[wadesworld]

Andy Glockner writes this about Marquette (who he says is "In the mix" for a bid):

Marquette (10-6, 1-3, RPI: 77, SOS: 32) is a solid team with a profile that's headlined by excruciating losses (to Florida State, N.C. State, West Virginia and Villanova twice by a total of 10 points, as well as one to Wisconsin). That only leaves a neutral-site win over Xavier as real help. The Golden Eagles still have to travel to Syracuse and UConn this month, but remember this section when all the "Look out for Marquette!" features start appearing a month from now. Kenpom.com has them 22nd right now, in part because they've been the third-most "unlucky" team in Division I.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/andy_glockner/01/11/bubble.watch/1.html

[HoopsMalone]

That's a high RPI.  We are lucky to be on the bubble even with that.   

Home wins v. Pitt and Louisville and a nice 10 or 11 conference wins can do a lot for us though, so that could be where the "Watch out for Marquette" headlines comes from.  I can't wait for those.

[mug644]

I think Glockner is over-looking the home win over Georgetown when he cites only the Xavier win as "real help." I don't think that win gets us a bid, but it certainly strengthens the argument.

[bilsu]

I would think a 9-9 Big East record, especially after a 1-3 start gets us on the bubble. A lost in the first round of the Big East tournament would remove us from the bubble. If we play on the first day of the Big East tournament, we will need to win our first two games. We cannot afford a loss to a non-tournament team in the Big East tournament.

[tower912]

Getting to 20 wins, even if it takes 1-2 wins in the BEast tourney should get us in.   

[Clarence]

As long as we hold serve in the games we should win (PC twice, DePaul twice, Rutgers, USF, @ SJU, and @SHU).  Then we only need to pull out one of the remaining 6 (@ cuse, @ UCONN, Pitt, @ Cincy, Louisville, and ND) to fininsh at 10-8 in conference and 19-11 overall, which should get us in. 

[Nukem2]

That's a high RPI.  We are lucky to be on the bubble even with that.  

Home wins v. Pitt and Louisville and a nice 10 or 11 conference wins can do a lot for us though, so that could be where the "Watch out for Marquette" headlines comes from.  I can't wait for those.

Actually, our RPI is 76 per RealTime RPI, wich reflects our 6 losses as well as the buy games.  The 22 is K Pom's unique rating.  K Pom's #'s are closer to reality.

[rocky_warrior]

Actually, our RPI is 76 per RealTime RPI, wich reflects our 6 losses as well as the buy games.  The 22 is K Pom's unique rating.  K Pom's #'s are closer to reality.

If only the selection committee used Pomeroy's calculation. 

[robmufan]

As long as we hold serve in the games we should win (PC twice, DePaul twice, Rutgers, USF, @ SJU, and @SHU).  Then we only need to pull out one of the remaining 6 (@ cuse, @ UCONN, Pitt, @ Cincy, Louisville, and ND) to fininsh at 10-8 in conference and 19-11 overall, which should get us in. 

Disagree,

I believe we need to pull out 2 of those last games (preferably one of them on the road) and win a game or two (depending on first opponent) in the BET!

[ChicosBailBonds]

As long as we hold serve in the games we should win (PC twice, DePaul twice, Rutgers, USF, @ SJU, and @SHU).  Then we only need to pull out one of the remaining 6 (@ cuse, @ UCONN, Pitt, @ Cincy, Louisville, and ND) to fininsh at 10-8 in conference and 19-11 overall, which should get us in. 

It will take more than just one of those wins.

The problem is that our RPI top 50 record would be pretty poor in that scenario.  It would be something like 2-10.

Remember, Providence won 10 Big East games last year and 19 overall.  They had a Big East Tourney win also.  They got left out.  It's not just the magical win number, but WHO we beat.

The one big difference with us and Providence, at least so far, is that PC got blown out in some games last year and MU hasn't all year.

[NotAnAlum]

As long as we hold serve in the games we should win (PC twice, DePaul twice, Rutgers, USF, @ SJU, and @SHU).  Then we only need to pull out one of the remaining 6 (@ cuse, @ UCONN, Pitt, @ Cincy, Louisville, and ND) to fininsh at 10-8 in conference and 19-11 overall, which should get us in. 

I wouldn't say @SHU is a game we should win.  The Hall is very good this year.  I personally feel we have a better chance of beating Pitt or Lville here than winning at SHU

[bilsu]

My optimism is based on the close losses looking good, if we get in the bubble comparison. That could change quickly, if we start getting blown out by some of the teams remaining on our schedule. The last twelve games are more important than the previous games.

[Clarence]

It will take more than just one of those wins.

The problem is that our RPI top 50 record would be pretty poor in that scenario.  It would be something like 2-10.

Remember, Providence won 10 Big East games last year and 19 overall.  They had a Big East Tourney win also.  They got left out.  It's not just the magical win number, but WHO we beat.

The one big difference with us and Providence, at least so far, is that PC got blown out in some games last year and MU hasn't all year.

They are similar, but to be totally accurate PC finished the regualr season 18-12 and went 1-1 in the Beast Tourney, where they beat DePaul, and got smoked by Louisville. 

We would be a Bubble team, but I can't see how we don't make the tournament if we finish 20-12 and 10-8 in the Beast.  I think the close losses to FSU, WVA, and Nova actually help us in the commitees mind. 

[MUEng92]

they've been the third-most "unlucky" team in Division I.

How the heck can two teams be more "unlucky" than what MU has gone through in the last 2-3 weeks?

[NersEllenson]

How the heck can two teams be more "unlucky" than what MU has gone through in the last 2-3 weeks?

I've sent an e-mail to the author of the story to ask which 2 teams he considers more unlucky.  Should be interesting if he replies, what he comes up with.

[willie warrior]

We are 42 in the USA/Sagarin rankings.

77 would never get us in.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I've sent an e-mail to the author of the story to ask which 2 teams he considers more unlucky.  Should be interesting if he replies, what he comes up with.

I believe it's a formula he uses.  From his blog, "With that tease, let’s start with the lucky group. Teams are ranked by the difference between expected winning percentage (as determined by Mr. Gauss) and actual winning percentage. In parentheses is the amount of wins this represents."

[rocky_warrior]

I've sent an e-mail to the author of the story to ask which 2 teams he considers more unlucky.  Should be interesting if he replies, what he comes up with.

It's not his luck ranking, it's from Pomeroy.  Here's the list sorted by luck, scroll to the bottom.  Marquette is 3rd from last, Southern Methodist is second, Hartford is last

http://kenpom.com/rate.php?s=Luck

[MuMark]

Providence's win in the BE tourny was an unimpressive win against Depaul and then they got destroyed by Louisville.

The SC does look at how you play so close losses against very good teams will help but we still need to win our share of games.

As always 34 are going to get picked whether they are worthy or not.

This is an interesting site to follow as the season goes along. It hasn't started tracking teams for this year yet.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[ChicosBailBonds]

And another


http://www.rpiforecast.com/bracket.html

[The Pickle]

If we do get in, we are going to be a tough draw for a high seed.

[wadesworld]

If we do get in, we are going to be a tough draw for a high seed.

+1.  And if we do it appears that we should have a fairly long streak of years without missing the NCAA Tournament for a while.

[HoopsMalone]

+1.  And if we do it appears that we should have a fairly long streak of years without missing the NCAA Tournament for a while.

it would be 5 years in a row.  We don't like the talk about the two years between wade and the three amigos arriving on campus.  We did, however, have 2 NBA players and Merrit (only one of the two years) had a tryout with the Bulls in pre-season on year and was an NBDL player.  Only NIT though.

[bilsu]

If we do get in, we are going to be a tough draw for a high seed.

For 39 minutes.

[The Pickle]

LOL.  Touche Bilsu, touche.