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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] JUCO's in the Big East  (Read 4674 times)

CrackedSidewalksSays

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[Cracked Sidewalks] JUCO's in the Big East
« on: October 01, 2009, 10:00:04 PM »
JUCO's in the Big East

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe)

First things first... have you Donated to Al's Run yet?

Reflecting back on the post on Top 100 recruits, who would have guessed that Junior Cadougan would end up as one of the recruits to get an incomplete in their first year?  Tough break for the player.

Anyways, as discussed, I wanted to take a look at what the typical expectations are for JUCO's in their first year.  This time, I pulled data from JucoJunction.com and ran that through the ringer.  For the data, we went back to 2004-2005, because that was as far back as Pomeroy's database goes.

Quick hits
  • Over this period (2004-2009), there were thirty (by my count) JUCOs that committed to BE teams and played in the first year.
  • The team with the most JUCO players was Cincinnati.  I know that you all find that to be very shocking.
  • Number two was South Florida (six)
  • Marquette had five JUCO players... (Mike Kinsella, Joseph Fulce, Lawrence Blackledge, Jimmy Butler, Jamil Lott)
Of course, there are two JUCO players joining the team this year in Dwight Buycks and Darius Johnson-Odom.  The hyperbole surrounding both of these recruits has been very high.  We've seen Buycks referred to as "one of the best JUCO guards in the nation", and expectations are also high for DJO.  Not only that, but Jimmy Butler was outstanding last year, raising expectations even higher.

But what does history tell us?




If you recall the post on Top 100 recruits, the distribution was fairly even between the different categories.  About 25% of the players that got playing time ended up in the Stud, Role Player, Ball Hog, or Non-Factor categories.  (As a reminder, the breakdown is average number of possessions (20%) vs average offensive rating (100)).  However, the story is not distributed nearly as evenly over the past five years.

  • Only four JUCO players ended up as Studs (offensive rating > 100 ; possessions > 20%).  Four.  Their names are Kentrell Gransberry, Rodney Epperson, John Williamson, and Jihad Muhammad.
  • Nineteen of the thirty JUCO players were non-factors, with both sub-par offensive ratings and limited possessions.  That's the great big group on the bottom left.  63%, if you will.
  • Only five of the JUCO players were even quality role players in their first year.  Top of the list was actually our very own Jimmy Butler, who is the big yellow circle up way up above anyone else.  Butler was off the charts good as a role player.
Frankly, what this limited set of information suggests is that it is rare for a first year JUCO player to be more than a complete non-factor, let alone a legitimate stud.  Given that Butler was so good last year, my fear is that the expectations may be just a little bit too high for Buycks and DJO.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/10/jucos-in-big-east.html

4everCrean

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] JUCO's in the Big East
« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2009, 11:21:07 PM »
An extremely impressive analysis!  If only regression analysis didn't bring on a queesy tummy amid memories of grad school.  So what does the Jimmy Butler experience tell us?  Obviously, Buzz is way out ahead of the pack in evaluating JUCO's.  Jimmy was, in fact, Buzz's first recruit, I believe.  Therefore, we can assume that Dwight and Darius will also leap over the statistical mean!  In a more serious vein, Jimmy Butler was a truly unheralded high school player who developed quickly in the JUCO ranks, and we were chasing after him among the high faluting crowd including the like of Kentucky.  Dwight and Darius, on the other hand, were very highly sought after high school recruits who proved in JUCO that their high school rankings were not inflated.  Therefore, I say that comparing them to post Huggie Bear Cincinnati JUCO recruits is balderdash!  Mark my words, provided that they stay healthy, Dwight and Darius will burn and pillage their way through the Big East!  The laws of nature be dammed!

P.S. I would be very interested to know where Jamil Lott landed on the chart.  He was injured one of his years, wasn't he?  Was it his first year?

P.S.S.  Was Rodney Epperson the top stud?
« Last Edit: October 01, 2009, 11:35:06 PM by LittleMurs »
You actually have a degree from Marquette?

Quote from: muguru
No...and after reading many many psosts from people on this board that do...I have to say I'm MUCH better off, if this is the type of "intelligence" a degree from MU gets you. It sure is on full display I will say that.

Jay Bee

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] JUCO's in the Big East
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2009, 11:32:23 PM »
The stats are fun, but it's all relative.  We flat out need production from people that are new to this team.  Solid stats are sitting out as a pretty gift bag to the JUCO player(s) that take it - it's just a question of who that will be, and whether who takes it is/are the right person(s).   Ball hog or stud seems to be the likely definition for at least one of the fellas... I'm hoping for stud.


4everCrean

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Re: Jay Bee
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2009, 11:37:52 PM »
I guessing that you would be referring to DJO.
You actually have a degree from Marquette?

Quote from: muguru
No...and after reading many many psosts from people on this board that do...I have to say I'm MUCH better off, if this is the type of "intelligence" a degree from MU gets you. It sure is on full display I will say that.

4everwarriors

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] JUCO's in the Big East
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2009, 06:39:07 AM »
Where on the chart does one find the background character of JUCO players?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

GGGG

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] JUCO's in the Big East
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2009, 08:08:34 AM »
An extremely impressive analysis!  If only regression analysis didn't bring on a queesy tummy amid memories of grad school.  So what does the Jimmy Butler experience tell us?  Obviously, Buzz is way out ahead of the pack in evaluating JUCO's.  Jimmy was, in fact, Buzz's first recruit, I believe.  Therefore, we can assume that Dwight and Darius will also leap over the statistical mean!  In a more serious vein, Jimmy Butler was a truly unheralded high school player who developed quickly in the JUCO ranks, and we were chasing after him among the high faluting crowd including the like of Kentucky.  Dwight and Darius, on the other hand, were very highly sought after high school recruits who proved in JUCO that their high school rankings were not inflated.


Or it could be that Butler succeeded because of his limited role.  He played on a team with three seniors where he could be the "hustle guy."  Come off the bench to play a little defense, get some rebounds, score some points, etc.

It will be impossible for him to retain that offensive production with more minutes and his surrounding cast gone.  Furthermore, it will be hard for DJO and Buycks to attain that status with one, or both of them starting and counted on to be essentially the only scorers in the guard positions.

NCMUFan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] JUCO's in the Big East
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2009, 12:26:52 PM »
Just curious, how about doing the same analysis for 1st year players out of High School.  Do most ride the pine their first year or inefficient or just role models?  Were the three Amigos a bizarre phenomena?  Finally, what about the team makeup?  A team with a lot of upper classman and previous year starters would make it more difficult for a new player to get playing time and being a significant contributor on the team unless a real stud.  While an inexperience team would give a new player an opportunity to get minutes.

Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] JUCO's in the Big East
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2009, 12:29:34 PM »
Where on the chart does one find the background character of JUCO players?

If they were full qualifiers, it's a different chart, isn't it?

bma725

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] JUCO's in the Big East
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2009, 12:32:58 PM »
Just curious, how about doing the same analysis for 1st year players out of High School.  Do most ride the pine their first year or inefficient or just role models?  Were the three Amigos a bizarre phenomena?  Finally, what about the team makeup?  A team with a lot of upper classman and previous year starters would make it more difficult for a new player to get playing time and being a significant contributor on the team unless a real stud.  While an inexperience team would give a new player an opportunity to get minutes.

Check the post from a few weeks ago that looked at Top 100 players.  Those guys are all first year players out of HS or Prep.  That should give some guideline, though I guess you do leave out the guys that came from HS or Prep School and weren't ranked by any service.


tower912

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] JUCO's in the Big East
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2009, 07:46:11 PM »
Nice analysis.   I don't know how you can factor in this variable, but this year they are GUARANTEED  minutes at MU.    There are no other options.   With Junior hurt, they are the de facto starters.  If they are not at least solid contributors, then there is little to no hope for any kind of postseason berth.
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