[Cracked Sidewalks] Star System Predicts MU 5th to 9th in BE

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Star System Predicts MU 5th to 9th in BE

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

The 5-star system for rating new recruits has become very familiar to even the casual college basketball fan since William Gates went to a 5-star camp in “Hoop Dreams” before landing at Marquette in 1992.

With Buzz Williams landing three 4-star recruits (6-foot-6 Jeronne Maymon and Erik Williams, 6-1 Junior Cadougan), as well as three 3-star recruits (7-2 Youssoupha Mbao, 6-2 Dwight Buycks and Darius Johnson-Odom) and a potential steal in 6-10 Brett Roseboro, the question is how this incredible class will do next year.

I have worked on a system to equate the 5-star system with what returning players have accomplished, to try to give more of an apples-to-apples between new recruits and returning players.  The system basically factors in rankings of returning players from www.nbadraft.net and www.kenpom.com to rank each player coming back for another season from 1 to 6 stars in a ratio consistent with how “star” recruits typically progress.  I added the “6-star” rating only for players that are projected to go in the NBA draft after next season on www.nbadraft.net.  The ratings of 5, 4, 3.5, 3, 2 or no stars are determined for returning players by a formula using ratings in www.kenpom.com.  New 3-star recruits who are ranked among the top 150 recruits in www.rivals.com are given 3.5 stars.

Lazar one of eight 6-star players in Conference as projected #29 NBA pick

Lazar Hayward is now one of eight returning Big East players projected to go in next year’s NBA Draft (as the #29 pick), so those are the only players to get a 6-star rating.  The formula gives Jimmy Butler 3.5 stars.  With the aforementioned three 4-star recruits and three 3-star recruits, that gives Marquette a total of 30.5 stars from it’s top 8 players, which is as deep as the system goes.

The system isn’t perfect.  Obviously, we all see potential upside in David Cubillan, and a lot of muscle underneath in Joe Fulce at 6-7 and hopefully healthy, as well as 6-10 players Chris Otule and Brett Roseboro.  But for comparison purposes, we compare the top 8 players on each roster based on their stars.

While Marquette is the only team in the Big East with newcomers making up six of its top eight players in this system, the league is much less experience this year â€" giving MU a shot to do well.  Providence is the only other team in the Big East with five of it’s top eight players as newcomers, but UConn, Pitt, Nova and Notre Dame all have four newcomers among their top eight players.

30.5 stars puts MU in 2nd tier â€" 5th to 9th place in Big East

Even assuming Ater Majok never puts on a uniform for UConn after the recruiting controversy, UConn still tops Nova as the top team in the Big East looking forward to next year, by a total of 36 stars to 33.5 stars.  Syracuse and West Virginia are close behind, to seemingly set up a favorite four that comprise the top-tier.

Marquette seems to be in a pretty tight group from 5th place to 9th place, within one star either way of Georgetown and Cincinnati (31 stars), then Marquette (30.5 stars), followed by Pitt (30) and Louisville (29.5).

This is just a raw measure of overall talent, and it does not make any attempt to break down teams’ strengths and weaknesses by position.  For example, while Syracuse is just behind Nova in third place, they did lose their backcourt and it appears all their top line talent is on the front line.  It’s easy to see why a return of Johnny Flynn might have made them a favorite to go all the way this year â€" but without him it appears 3.5 star recruit Brandon Triche, a shooting guard, may be the closest thing they have to a new point guard.

Height no longer a disadvantage

The other thing you may notice below is the average height of each team, which is based only on its top 8 players.  At 6-foot-5 1/4, the only three teams with more than a half inch advantage on MU during the upcoming year are Georgetown, West Virginia and Cincinnati.  This also does not take into account either Otule or Roseboro, who if they excel and are part of an 8-man rotation, would make MU taller than every team but those three after being the 295th tallent team in the country last year.

The ability to match up with height and add another tenacious 6-6 rebounder in addition to Lazar, certianly means MU will no longer go into “David v. Goliath” battles every time out.

Rankings of the teams â€" and listing of the top 8 players for each

Please do not any corrections you see.  Obviously anyone who was a senior or was drafted was taken off a team’s roster, and any new recruits added, but let me know if you see someone listed who has transferred out for any reason.  The order of finish in the Big East for the 2009-2010 season based on the Star system outlined above is as follows, with stars, height, and class listed for each of the team’s top 8 players:

1, UConn (36-stars, 6-5.75), Jerome Dyson (6-stars, 6-4, Sr), Kemba Walker (6-stars, 6-1, So), Stanley Robinson (5-stars, 6-9, Sr), Alex Oriakhi (5-stars, 6-9, New), Jamal Coombs-McDaniel (4-stars, 6-7, New), Darius Smith (4-stars, 6-2, New), Gavin Edwards (3-stars, 6-9, Sr), Jamaal Trice (3-stars, 6-5, New).
2, Villanova (33.5-stars, 6-4.75), Mouphtaou Yarou (5-stars, 6-9, New), Scottie Reynolds (5-stars, 6-2, Sr), Isaiah Armwood (4-stars, 6-7, New), Reggie Redding (4-stars, 6-5, Sr), Dominic Cheek (4-stars, 6-5, New), Corey Fisher (4-stars, 6-1, Jr), Maalik Wayns (4-stars, 6-1, New), Antonio Pena (3.5-stars, 6-8, Jr),
3, Syracuse (33-stars, 6-6.75), Arinze Onuaku (6-stars, 6-9, Sr), Rick Jackson (5-stars, 6-9, Jr), Paul Harris (5-stars, 6-4, Sr), Andy Rautins (4-stars, 6-5, Sr), DaShonte Riley (3.5-stars, 6-11, New), Brandon Triche (3.5-stars, 6-3, New), Kris Joseph (3-stars, 6-7, So), James Southerland (3-stars, 6-6, New),
4, West Virginia (32.5-stars, 6-6.875), Devin Ebanks (6-stars, 6-9, So), Da'Sean Butler (6-stars, 6-7, Sr), Darryl Bryant (4-stars, 6-2, So), Kevin Jones (3.5-stars, 6-8, So), Wellington Smith (3.5-stars, 6-7, Sr), Dalton Pepper (3.5-stars, 6-5, New), Deniz Kilicli (3-stars, 6-9, New), Dan Jennings (3-stars, 6-8, New),
5, Georgetown (31-stars, 6-6.75), Greg Monroe (6-stars, 6-11, So), Chris Wright (5-stars, 6-1, Jr), Hollis Thompson (4-stars, 6-6, New), Austin Freeman (4-stars, 6-4, Jr), Henry Sims (3-stars, 6-10, So), Julian Vaughn (3-stars, 6-9, Jr), Nikita Mescheriakov (3-stars, 6-8, Jr), Omar Wattad (3-stars, 6-5, Jr)
6, Cincinnati (31-stars, 6-6.75), Yancy Gates (5-stars, 6-9, So), Lance Stephenson (5-stars, 6-6, New), Deonta Vaughn (5-stars, 6-1, Sr), Rashad Bishop (3.5-stars, 6-6, Jr), Alvin Mitchell (3.5-stars, 6-5, Jr), Anthony McClain (3-stars, 6-12, Jr), Steve Toyloy (3-stars, 6-8, Sr), Darnell Wilks (3-stars, 6-7, Jr)

7, Marquette (30.5-stars, 6-foot-5.25-inches average), Lazar Hayward (6-stars, 6-6, Sr), Jeronne Maymon (4-stars, 6-6, New), Erik Williams (4-stars, 6-6, New), Junior Cadougan (4-stars, 6-1, New), Jimmy Butler (3.5-stars, 6-6, Jr), Youssoupha Mbao (3-stars, 7-2, New), Dwight Buycks (3-stars, 6-2, New), Darius Johnson-Odom (3-stars, 6-2, New) â€" not factored, but with great upside, Dave Cubillan (2-stars, 6-0), Chris Otule (6-10), Brett Roseboro (6-10) and Joe Fulce (6-7).

8, Pittsburgh (30-stars, 6-5.5, Jr), Dante Taylor (5-stars, 6-8, New), Gilbert Brown (5-stars, 6-6, Jr), Jermaine Dixon (4-stars, 6-3, Sr), Lamar Patterson (3.5-stars, 6-5, New), Brad Wanamaker (3.5-stars, 6-4, Jr), Talib Zanna (3-stars, 6-9, New), J.J. Richardson (3-stars, 6-7, New), Ashton Gibbs (3-stars, 6-2, So),
9, Louisville (29.5-stars, 6-5.75), Samardo Samuels (5-stars, 6-9, So), Rakeem Buckles (4-stars, 6-8, New), Peyton Siva (4-stars, 6-0, New), Terrence Jennings (3.5-stars, 6-9, So), Edgar Sosa (3.5-stars, 6-2, Sr), Preston Knowles (3.5-stars, 6-1, Jr), Stephan Van Treese (3-stars, 6-9, New), Jared Swopshire (3-stars, 6-8, So)
10, Seton Hall (29-stars, 6-5.875), Robert Mitchell (5-stars, 6-6, Sr), Jeremy Hazell (5-stars, 6-5, Jr), John Garcia (4-stars, 6-9, Sr), Eugene Harvey (4-stars, 6-0, Sr), Mike Davis (3-stars, 6-11, Jr), Ferrakohn Hall (3-stars, 6-7, New), Jordan Theodore (3-stars, 6-0, So), Brandon Walters (2-stars, 6-9, Jr)
11, St. John's (29-stars, 6-5.375), Sean Evans (4-stars, 6-8, Jr), Justin Burrell (4-stars, 6-8, Jr), D.J. Kennedy (4-stars, 6-6, Jr), Paris Horne (4-stars, 6-3, Jr), Rob Thomas (3.5-stars, 6-6, Jr), Malik Boothe (3.5-stars, 5-9, Jr), Dele Coker (3-stars, 6-10, Jr), Quincy Roberts (3-stars, 6-5, So)
12, Notre Dame (28-stars, 6-5.875), Luke Harangody (6-stars, 6-8, Sr), Tory Jackson (4-stars, 5-11, Sr), Tyrone Nash (3-stars, 6-8, Jr), Mike Broghammer (3-stars, 6-8, New), Jack Cooley (3-stars, 6-8, New), Tom Knight (3-stars, 6-8, New), Joey Brooks (3-stars, 6-5, New), Jonathan Peoples (3-stars, 6-3, Sr)
13, Rutgers (28-stars, 6-5.25), Gregory Echenique (4-stars, 6-9, So), Dane Miller (4-stars, 6-5, New), Mike Rosario (4-stars, 6-3, So), Hamady N'Diaye (3.5-stars, 6-11, Sr), Corey Chandler (3.5-stars, 6-2, Jr), Austin Johnson (3-stars, 6-7, New), Earl Pettis (3-stars, 6-5, Jr), Mike Coburn (3-stars, 6-0, Jr)
14, DePaul (26.5-stars, 6-5.75), Mac Koshwal (5-stars, 6-10, Jr), Dar Tucker (4-stars, 6-5, Jr), Will Walker (3.5-stars, 6-0, Sr), Devin Hill (3-stars, 6-9, So), Tony Freeland (3-stars, 6-5, New), Mike Stovall (3-stars, 6-5, New), Jeremiah Kelly (3-stars, 6-1, So), Krys Faber (2-stars, 6-11, So)
15, Providence (25-stars, 6-3.125), Marshon Brooks (4-stars, 6-5, Jr), Sharaud Curry (3.5-stars, 5-10, Sr), Johnnie Lacy (3.5-stars, 5-10, New), James Still (3-stars, 6-8, New), Kadeem Batts (3-stars, 6-8, New), Brian McKenzie (3-stars, 6-4, Sr), Vincent Council (3-stars, 6-1, New), Duke Mondy (2-stars, 6-3, New)
16, South Florida (25-stars, 6-6.125), Dominique Jones (5-stars, 6-4, Jr), Augustus Gilchrist (3.5-stars, 6-10, So), Chris Howard (3.5-stars, 6-3, Sr), Alex Rivas Sanchez (3-stars, 6-10, Sr), Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (3-stars, 6-7, New), Shaun Noriega (3-stars, 6-4, New), Eladio Espinosa (2-stars, 6-7, So), Mike Mercer (2-stars, 6-4, Sr)

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/07/star-system-predicts-mu-5th-to-9th-in.html

[DomJamesToTheBasket]

Paul Harris declared for the draft, so he's gone. I believe that would put Syracuse at 31 stars. Dar Tucker left Depaul as well......pushing them to last.

[muarmy81]

Didn't Dar Tucker also stay in the draft?  I think he's no longer eligible.

[bilsu]

I have been wondering about the rule that the Kentucky player took advantage of a couple of years ago. He was able to comeback to college, because he was not drafted. Is this rule still in effect? Does it matter whether you hire an agent or not? Does it allow an undrafted player like Dar Tucker to return to school?

[MUDPT]

What about the ND transfer ins? Hansborough and Martin.

[hdog1017]

Just because you are tall doesn't mean you play "big."  There are plenty of "soft" tall players out there, as well as many smaller players who are beasts in the paint. 

That being said, I predict that the Warriors would fall in that 5th to 9th range in the Big East this season, probably more towards the bottom of that projection. 

[Tom Crean's Tanning Bed]

I have been wondering about the rule that the Kentucky player took advantage of a couple of years ago. He was able to comeback to college, because he was not drafted. Is this rule still in effect? Does it matter whether you hire an agent or not? Does it allow an undrafted player like Dar Tucker to return to school?

Not sure about it, but the rule basically was if you went into the draft, did not hire an agent, and paid your own way thru the entire predraft process and did not get drafted that you had the option to return to school.

[dsfire]

Not sure where at the moment, but I remember reading that the NCAA closed that loophole a couple of years ago.

[bamamarquettefan]

Thanks for the updates on DePaul and Syracuse departures.

Yes, Losing Paul Harris does lower Syracuse to 31 stars, because that moves Brandon Reese into their Top 8, and he has ZERO stars based on last year.  That really leaves the top tier as UConn, Nova and West Virginia.

Syracuse is therefore only a half a star ahead of Marquette, meaning we still fit into the 2nd-tier, but it really goes from 4th to 9th.

DePaul actually loses only two stars, since the 4-star Dar Tucker is replaced by the 2-star Michael Bizoukas.  It still drops them to last place, but only by half a point, so maybe they have hope this year.

[muhoosier260]

i wonder if cubillan will ever go by "dave"

[BrewCity83]

i wonder if cubillan will ever go by "dave"

prolly not until he himself can pronounce it that way

[dsfire]

I will say that I'm not sure the 6-star using next year's mock drafts is all that helpful - consider that even though Lazar shows up in the first round on nbadraft.net, he's at the bottom of the second on a couple others and DraftExpress doesn't have him getting drafted at all.

Is there a breakdown somewhere of the formula used for the returning players based on kenpom's stats?

[Hards Alumni]

I read none of this thread, but I can tell you that a prediction of 5th to 9th is not really a prediction at all.

[Henry Sugar]

I read none of this thread, but I can tell you that a prediction of 5th to 9th is not really a prediction at all.

Or... it's a better kind of prediction because it provides a confidence interval. 

[Hards Alumni]

saying 5-9th accounts for 5 of 16 possible slots.

its stupid.  Have the stones to make a pick, not a enormous range.

[BrewCity83]

I predict a finish between 4th and 13th.

[Hards Alumni]

I predict a finish between 4th and 13th.

exactly!

[Henry Sugar]

It's not a matter of stones.  It's a matter of precision versus accuracy. 

A prediction of 7th may be precise, but it's almost guaranteed to be inaccurate.  A prediction of 5th through 9th may be accurate, but it's not precise.  It's impossible to be precise in July.

BrewCity, if you only feel comfortable saying that MU will finish between 4th and 13th, then you're right.  Honestly, because of all the turnover, that's about the range I feel comfortable with.  That is probably the range most people feel comfortable with.  Almost anything could happen with the team next year.

However, Pudner used an approach that made him call out a narrower prediction, while still acknowledging some level of uncertainty.  Surely you agree that life can be uncertain.

[Hards Alumni]

It's not a matter of stones.  It's a matter of precision versus accuracy. 

A prediction of 7th may be precise, but it's almost guaranteed to be inaccurate.  A prediction of 5th through 9th may be accurate, but it's not precise.  It's impossible to be precise in July.

BrewCity, if you only feel comfortable saying that MU will finish between 4th and 13th, then you're right.  Honestly, because of all the turnover, that's about the range I feel comfortable with.  That is probably the range most people feel comfortable with.  Almost anything could happen with the team next year.

However, Pudner used an approach that made him call out a narrower prediction, while still acknowledging some level of uncertainty.  Surely you agree that life can be uncertain.

I understand the math behind it and the difference between precision and accuracy.  I just don't get the POINT of it.  I don't expect anyone to be accurate or precise with any sort of predictions otherwise they wouldn't be publishing the secret knowledge.  They would be making lots of money on sure bets.

I just think the whole system is stupid.  Quantifying teams with stars, arriving at a total of stars, and then deciding a RANGE is counterintuitive.

[Skatastrophy]

I just don't get the POINT of it.

You don't understand the point of an educated guess that's not a complete shot in the dark?

[Hards Alumni]

You don't understand the point of an educated guess that's not a complete shot in the dark?

I do.  I could make the same educated guess without using any of this analysis... and it appears he did too.

[Henry Sugar]

I read none of this thread, but I can tell you that a prediction of 5th to 9th is not really a prediction at all.

Maybe we should start here.

I'll summarize for you

• Pudner came up with a way of normalizing both returning players and incoming players
• His method is to assign returning players a star ranking
• He then compiled the star rankings for each team
• Marquette has a precise prediction of 7th with 30.5 "stars"
• However, from Georgetown (5th, 31 stars) to Louisville (9th, 29.5 stars), there are a cluster of teams, so Pudner says Marquette is roughly in this group

I thought it was interesting because it provides a way of looking at teams and how they /could/ integrate new talent with returning talent.  I've never seen anyone take this sort of approach.  I'm interested in this question because the idea of how well new players are integrated to a team is critical to understanding the 2009-2010 season.

The idea isn't complete and hasn't gone through any sort of testing.  I think some appropriate questions are if star rankings have previously worked, how the determination of stars for returning players were calculated, if the star rankings that are used for new players come from the right source, and if a quantity-based approach is better than returning minutes. 

However, at least Pudner's work is original thought instead of just criticism.  What's your prediction for MU this year, and what do you base it on?

[Hards Alumni]

I prefer not to pick, and take the coward's way out.

[Marquette84]

Thanks for the updates on DePaul and Syracuse departures.

Yes, Losing Paul Harris does lower Syracuse to 31 stars, because that moves Brandon Reese into their Top 8, and he has ZERO stars based on last year.  That really leaves the top tier as UConn, Nova and West Virginia.

Syracuse is therefore only a half a star ahead of Marquette, meaning we still fit into the 2nd-tier, but it really goes from 4th to 9th.

DePaul actually loses only two stars, since the 4-star Dar Tucker is replaced by the 2-star Michael Bizoukas.  It still drops them to last place, but only by half a point, so maybe they have hope this year.

Syracuse was listed at 33 stars.  They lose a 5-star in Harris and replace him with a 0-star in Brandon Reece.

Wouldn't this put them at 28, not 31?

3, Syracuse (33-stars, 6-6.75), Arinze Onuaku (6-stars, 6-9, Sr), Rick Jackson (5-stars, 6-9, Jr), Paul Harris (5-stars, 6-4, Sr), Andy Rautins (4-stars, 6-5, Sr), DaShonte Riley (3.5-stars, 6-11, New), Brandon Triche (3.5-stars, 6-3, New), Kris Joseph (3-stars, 6-7, So), James Southerland (3-stars, 6-6, New),

[geps]

I believe Anthony Mason Jr. returns to St Johns adding I think at least 4 stars. They could be decent.