[Cracked Sidewalks] Lazar needs to be 3rd star for Elite 8/Final 4 Run

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Lazar needs to be 3rd star for Elite 8/Final 4 Run

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

Historically, it takes three stars to make a Final Four run.  For purposes of this article, I will define stars as players who will be drafted by the NBA after the season in question, or the following season.

This is the best predictor of which teams will make a deep NCAA run that I have found.  When going through all Division I teams from the 2000-01 season to last year, there have been 46 teams with three or more future NBA draft choices and almost half of them – 46% - have made the Final Four.  By contrast there have been 91 teams with just two future NBA draftees, and only 3 of them (3%) have made the Final Four. Texas and Kansas in – gulp – 2003, and LSU in 2006.

Granted, teams with MORE THAN 3 stars have been almost a sure lock for the Final Four, but even teams with exactly 3 future draftees have made the Elite Eight 48% of the time and the Final Four 35% of the time.  The following is the breakdown:

Drafted players Total Teams Elite 8 %Elite 8 Final Four % Final Four NCAA Champions
4+	15	13	87%	10	67%	Du 01, Md 02, Fl 06-07, Ka 08
3	31	15	48%	11	35%	UCon 04, NC 05
2	91	13	14%	3	3%	None
1	283	13	5%	6	2%	Syr 03
0	2200	10	0.5%	2	0.1%	None

So the question now is, does Marquette belong in the “3” row, with an even shot at the Elite 8 and a better than 1-in-3 shot at the Final Four, or in the “2” row where an Elite 8 is a longshot?

With Jerel McNeal knocking on the door of the 1st round at No. 32 in the latest nbadraft.net mock draft, and Wes Matthews closing fast at No. 50, Marquette clearly has two stars ready for the big dance.  The variable here is Lazar Hayward, who has been in and out of the 2010 mock draft at nbadraft.net.  I believe the NCAA run hinges on whether or not MU gets the ball to Lazar and he plays at that NBA-draftee level down the stretch.

If Lazar is NBA draftee No. 3, then we belong in this group:

North Carolina
UConn
USC
LSU
Marquette
Oklahoma State
Syracuse
Tennessee
Texas
Wake Forest

This wouldn't be the list I'd draw up of the 10 teams most likely to make the Elite 8, but based on the strong correlation between draftees and the NCAA bracket, you may want to put a couple of these down for extra upset wins.

If not, and it’s just Wes and Jerel, then we belong in this group.

Arizona
Arizona St.
Duke
Gonzaga
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
Marquette
Ohio State
Pittsburgh
West Virginia

Certainly Oklahoma and other one-draftee teams can remember Syracuse’s 2003 run behind Carmelo Anthony as the only time a team with fewer than 2 NBA draftees made it all the way, but the odds are against them.

I’m looking forward to Lazar playing like the true superstar that he is for this big run.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/03/lazar-needs-to-be-3rd-star-for-elite.html

[MU_Warrior44]

I really liked this breakdown, but I have a few thoughts about it, primarily about the use of NBA draft equaling being a star. I'll use MU as an example of some of the shortcomings in this analysis. I'm sure that other teams have similar cases.

By defining stars as NBA draftees from the Final Four year or the year after, that excludes players that are excellent college players but not NBA material. Lazar is a great college player. Love that guy, but I don't think he has the quickness to play a 2 or 3 in the NBA or the size to play a 4. However, that doesn't mean that he couldn't be considered a star. Dominic probably wasn't going to be drafted, but with the way we're missing him now most people would be hard pressed to not consider him a star (or at least close to one).

Looking at the 2003 FF team, Robert Jackson wasn't drafted, but I'd consider him a darn close to a star. I believe Diener was a sophomore during the FF year. So despite the fact that he basically single-handedly carried the team the first two games that year, he doesn't get counted as a star because he didn't get drafted for a couple more years. 

Both Diener and Jackson were 2nd team All-Conference that year. So maybe they weren't All-Star status, but I still think the analysis should include guys like this - the All-Conference type players that really help the teams. This is where Lazar would fit into all this.

Maybe my suggestions don't actually correlate into Elite 8 or Final 4 success, and maybe NBA draftees are the best correlation - I don't know. Just some thoughts I had.

[Wade for President]

L'ville is definitely in the group of 3 NBA players, in: T-Will (god, I can still hear that damn announcer scream that name after each one of his baskets on Sunday), Earl Clark, and Samardo Samuels.

[MarquetteVol]

Lazar needs to be 3rd star for Elite 8/Final 4 Run

Certainly Oklahoma and other one-draftee teams can remember Syracuse’s 2003 run behind Carmelo Anthony as the only time a team with fewer than 2 NBA draftees made it all the way, but the odds are against them.

I’m looking forward to Lazar playing like the true superstar that he is for this big run.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/03/lazar-needs-to-be-3rd-star-for-elite.html

I thought Hakim Warrick was at least a 2nd round pick. Maybe in 2004 not in 2003? Does this depend on when the player leaves school...as in it needs to be in the next draft after the deep run in March?