Rankings - Our Fall vs. Reality

[Niv Berkowitz]

O.K., here's what I don't f-ing get...

MU loses on a neutral court to Dayton and drops 10-11 spots in the polls. The following week, we beat a ranked UW team and move back up only 2-3 spots.

Meanwhile....said Dayton team is now #26 in the polls.

So....we lose to an almost-ranked team that drops us further than any one-loss fall for any team in D-1 so far this year? WTF?

[nycwarrior]

The Dayton game was an ass-kicking that may have surfaced the doubts that a lot of voters had.

We started the year in the neighborhood of #15 based on the roster that we were supposed to have going into the season. Most commentators, media types and coaches are familiar with and seem to respect the big 4, as they should.

Just as fair, I think most already had questions around our frontcourt. Removing three bigs from our already thin ranks may have confirmed the need to drop us down.

I can't blame them.

And, for now, I actually like flying a bit below the radar going into the UT game and the early part of conference play. We've got a bad recent history of peaking frustratingly early.

[Niv Berkowitz]

I totally understand a drop of 4-6 spots the way we got our arses handed to us. But...I didn't expect to go all the way out and then creep back in.

Personally, I think it was more about Buzz than anything (or lack of respect for him and what he may/may not know/do). That's not a shot at Buzz or the team, he's just such an unknown. Maybe voters thought, "here we go...I KNEW that guy didn't know how to coach" and that led to the fall.

And I too thought that Rosiak's post-game analysis of the Dayton team was pretty disrespectful. That's a good team. One we should have beat, but they aren't Directional-Michigan or Savannah State.

[77ncaachamps]

The Dayton game was an ass-kicking that may have surfaced the doubts that a lot of voters had.

We started the year in the neighborhood of #15 based on the roster that we were supposed to have going into the season. Most commentators, media types and coaches are familiar with and seem to respect the big 4, as they should.

Just as fair, I think most already had questions around our frontcourt. Removing three bigs from our already thin ranks may have confirmed the need to drop us down.

I can't blame them.

And, for now, I actually like flying a bit below the radar going into the UT game and the early part of conference play. We've got a bad recent history of peaking frustratingly early.

+1

That Dayton drubbing showed how "over-ranked" we were.

[tower912]

We played dog-poopy against UD.   I have no problem with us getting dropped.   If we want to be stay ranked, we now have to earn it.   If we beat UT, don't lose another OOC game, and go 11-7 or better in the BEast, we will stay ranked.   If we don't.......

[MU B2002]

At the end of the day does it even matter?  There is no BCS, no bowl system.  It will be a bunch of old guys sitting in a board room the 2nd weekend of March deciding our seed for the Big Dance, and isn't that the only ranking that means anything?

[bilsu]

I think Dayton will be ranked soon. Voters are not showing them the respect they deserved. Their view that the MU loss was more of a reflection on MU, than it was a reflection on Dayton. I was impressed with Dayton in their overtime win against Auburn and thought we were going to have a lot of trouble with them. Auburn had some quickness, but was not as big or deep as Dayton. Dayton dominated them on the boards, just like they did MU. The Dayton win over Auburn was even more impressive when you realize that Dayton was 0-24 from the three point line. I actually do not know the final rebound numbers in either game, but if you were there you would have seen three Dayton players at once out leaping the other team. More than once Burke had position, but Dayton had two or three players skying higher than him for the board. Wright has Dwayne Wade athletcism. He does not have his moves or finishing ability, but he is a big time athelete with good size.

[MUONTOP]

I like to check out Sportsline.com Parrish's top 25 and one because it usually seems he trys to take a different argumentative view from the ESPN and AP polls (typically with good stats to back him up). This week he has a good comment about Dayton being 21-2 with Wright in the lineup over the last two seasons, thats a great and possibly telling stat.

http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/polls/top25

[Marquette84]

We played dog-poopy against UD.   I have no problem with us getting dropped.   If we want to be stay ranked, we now have to earn it.   If we beat UT, don't lose another OOC game, and go 11-7 or better in the BEast, we will stay ranked.   If we don't.......

I don't think anyone has argued that we didn't play "dog-poopy" or deserved to drop. The issue is that MU seems to get less benefit of the doubt and drop faster than similar teams with similar losses.

Miami starts the season in the ESPN poll ranked 16th.  They lose to UConn and drop to #21.  The lose--at home--to Ohio State and drop to #22.  Two losses, a total drop of 6 spots. 

Arizona State starts the season at 16.  They lost to Baylor (unranked at the time) and only drop to #19. 

Memphis is ranked 12th.  They lose to unranked Xavier, and drop 5 spots to 17.

Meanwhile MU is #15, loses to Dayton, and drops 11 spots, out of the poll completely.   Dayton isn't a dogmeat team.  They're right there in the Pomeroy with Baylor or Xavier, and I would say would have a strong chance of winning aginst each of those teams. 

I don't expect us to not drop after a loss.  But most similarly ranked teams dropped 3-6 spots after losing to similar opposition.  MU drops 11 spots. 

 

[JSwarriors08]

I don't think anyone has argued that we didn't play "dog-poopy" or deserved to drop. The issue is that MU seems to get less benefit of the doubt and drop faster than similar teams with similar losses.

Miami starts the season in the ESPN poll ranked 16th.  They lose to UConn and drop to #21.  The lose--at home--to Ohio State and drop to #22.  Two losses, a total drop of 6 spots. 

Arizona State starts the season at 16.  They lost to Baylor (unranked at the time) and only drop to #19. 

Memphis is ranked 12th.  They lose to unranked Xavier, and drop 5 spots to 17.

Meanwhile MU is #15, loses to Dayton, and drops 11 spots, out of the poll completely.   Dayton isn't a dogmeat team.  They're right there in the Pomeroy with Baylor or Xavier, and I would say would have a strong chance of winning aginst each of those teams. 

I don't expect us to not drop after a loss.  But most similarly ranked teams dropped 3-6 spots after losing to similar opposition.  MU drops 11 spots. 

 

Excellent points, +1

[tower912]

84, now we have to earn it back, plain and simple.   Beat the so called bias by playing too good to ignore.

[ATWizJr]

84- you don't get the benefit of the doubt with a new coach and no bigs.

[OneMadWarrior]

Polls are all abotu perception. Dayton is perceived to not be as good of a school becasue it is not a known quantity. YEt they are 38 in the Ken Pom ranking and are the best team we have faced all year accordingly. If MU would have lsot to say a name Big-12 or SEC school the drop would not have been as profound. When we beat Wisconsin we moved back into the polsl but due to the fact that many of those schools ahead of us did not lose there was no reason to jump us all they way back up. Remember in the end the polls only matter to television executives who liek to hype up matches agains "top ranked" teams. In reality all that matters is having that good RPI and beating teams in the RPI top 100, Not how many AP top 25 teams one has beaten.

[dsfire]

I don't think anyone has argued that we didn't play "dog-poopy" or deserved to drop. The issue is that MU seems to get less benefit of the doubt and drop faster than similar teams with similar losses.

Miami starts the season in the ESPN poll ranked 16th.  They lose to UConn and drop to #21.  The lose--at home--to Ohio State and drop to #22.  Two losses, a total drop of 6 spots. 

Arizona State starts the season at 16.  They lost to Baylor (unranked at the time) and only drop to #19. 

Memphis is ranked 12th.  They lose to unranked Xavier, and drop 5 spots to 17.

Meanwhile MU is #15, loses to Dayton, and drops 11 spots, out of the poll completely.   Dayton isn't a dogmeat team.  They're right there in the Pomeroy with Baylor or Xavier, and I would say would have a strong chance of winning aginst each of those teams. 

I don't expect us to not drop after a loss.  But most similarly ranked teams dropped 3-6 spots after losing to similar opposition.  MU drops 11 spots. 

While I haven't watched any of those games, the situations don't look the same as ours on paper.
Miami: Lost to #2 UConn on a neutral court.  Then the same week that they lost to OSU at home by 5, they won at Kentucky by 6.
Memphis: Beat Seton Hall two days before losing to Xavier by 5 on a neutral court.  Xavier was likely only unranked at the time because polls hadn't come out after their wins against Mizzou and Virginia Tech.
ASU: Probably the closest to us, but even then their win at SDSU looks better than any of the wins we had prior to losing to Dayton.  Baylor was the top team in the "Others receiving votes" list for the AP poll the week before that game, Dayton didn't have any votes.

I suspect the big swings for both us and Dayton were a combination of factors.  Maybe the voters don't respect Dayton as much as they should - but the lack of an anchoring quality win and the margin of loss on a court 90 miles from home are also factored in.  Which isn't to say that we don't deserve to be a top 25 ranked team, only if played every game like we did against Dayton.

[rugbydrummer]

+1

That Dayton drubbing showed how "over-ranked" we were.

Ditto.  I am all about come-from-behind victories     That'll teach you to underestimate me us!

Plus... I don't know if there's anything worse than getting the "overrated" chant directed at your beloved team   

Although, supreme domination is fine by me too... i just don't think that's MU's style

[reinko]

The overrated chant is wack.  By chanting that you are knocking your own team for beating a higher ranked opponent.

The overrated cheer needs to die.

[IAmMarquette]

The overrated chant is wack.  By chanting that you are knocking your own team for beating a higher ranked opponent.

The overrated cheer needs to die.

Agreed.

[rugbydrummer]

Agreed.

But it's got such a lovely iambic cadence perfect for chanting in large groups!!   >_<

Do you have a good suggestion for a replacement that parallels its brevity and sting?